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0
Date: 06-03-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
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• Cotton • Sugar • Soyben • RM Seed • Castor seed • Turmeric • Jeera
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NCML COMMODITY MARKET MONITOR
Cotton | Sugar | Soybean | RM Seed | Castor seed | Turmeric | Jeera
OUTLOOK
OTHER DATA Sowing progress | Advance estimates | Kharif and rabi MSP
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Cotton • Soybean • RM Seed • Jeera • Chilli • Castor Seed • Turmeric
0
Date: 06-03-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
• Indian cotton has gained support from the weakening of the rupee
against the US dollar as this has accelerated its export demand as per
the Cotton Association of India (CAI).
• India has so far shipped around 30 lakh bales (170 kg each) of cotton as
while contracts for exports have been signed for 35 lakh bales till date.
• Indian cotton is the cheapest in the international market. Therefore,
traditional buyers like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Vietnam, and Turkey are
fulfilling most of their requirements of cotton from India
• The CAI has pegged India's cotton exports at 55 lakh bales in 2017-18
against 63 lakh bales a year ago. However the export could be higher if
the current trend continues.
• The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has, in its latest estimate, lowered
India’s 2017-18 cotton crop size by 8 lakh bales to 367 lakh bales against
its earlier estimate of 375 lakh bales. CAI reduced the estimate citing
severe infestation with pink bollworm in states like Maharashtra &
Telangana. Last year’s production was 345 lakh bales.
• Maharashtra’s output is forecast to drop to 6 million bales for the
2017/18 marketing year, down from 10.7 million bales in the 2016/17, due
pink bollworm infestation reducing yields in 80% of state’s cotton area.
• Cotton yield in Gujarat too may take a 15% hit this year due to the pink
bollworm pest attack even as the cotton acreage in Gujarat increased
to 26.42 lakh hectares 2017-18 from 24.04 lakh hectares last season. Cotton production in Punjab, Haryana & Ganganagar, is also likely to fall
short of the targets due non-conducive weather.
• Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) and multinationals such as Louis
Dreyfus & Glencore were seen stepping up purchases of cotton amidst
arrivals across growing regions. Higher demand for better grades of
cotton are keeping market sentiments firm.
• The February USDA report has raised the world cotton production by
400,000 bales over last month, as higher estimates for China, Brazil and
South Africa offset lower expectations for India and Australia.
• USDA in its latest report pegs 2017-18 world cotton production at 121.37
mn bales (of 480-lb) against 106.57 mn bales produced in 2016-17. The
consumption is pegged at 120.50 mn bales against 114.75 mn bales in
2016-17 and the ending stocks are estimated higher at 88.55 mn bales
against 87.66 mn bales last year.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
05-03-2018 26-02-2018 %Change
Kadi 29 mm 11487 11375 0.98
Rajkot (29 mm) 19919.4 19734.15 0.94
Abohar (Med Staple)
10638.8 10562.5 0.72
14000
16000
18000
20000
22000
24000
No
v-15
De
c-15
Feb
-16
Ap
r-16
Jun
-16
Au
g-
16
Oct
-16
De
c-16
Feb
-17
Ap
r-17
Jun
-17
Au
g-1
7
Oct
-17
De
c-17
Feb
-18
Cotton - 29 mm - Rajkot
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Cut down in India’s cotton production estimate by CAI due to pink bollworm infestation in Maharashtra & Telangana
Bullish
Adequate supplies in market Bearish
Higher overall production over last year and higher closing stock expected from last year
Bearish
Aggressive commercial buying by CCI and Multinationals
Bullish
Competitive exports due to weakening of rupee, but lower estimate for India’s total 2017-18 cotton exports
Consolidation
Higher global production Bearish
Based on primary and secondary factors
Fundamental Report COTTON
0
Date: 06-03-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
• In the domestic market, the arrival of soybean is declining in the mandis.
There is lower availability at the plants for crushing. This coupled with
positive tone of soybean at CBOT continue to support the market.
• Profit–booking at higher levels is limiting the upside to an extent.
• Latest survey by Soybean Processors' Association (SOPA), estimates
India's soybean output at 8.35 mn tonnes for the 2017-18 season, about
24% lower than 10.9 mn tonnes produced in the previous year. SOPA
earlier had estimated the output at 9.15 mn tonnes in its Oct survey.
• India’s soybean output will be lower this year due to 5% lower acreage
over last year, flood-induced crop damage in major growing states,
followed by blight disease in the plants.
• Soybean rates in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra have risen sharply
due to lower availability. Positive trend overseas and restricted supplies
in the domestic spot market are fuelling Soybean prices in India.
• Spurt in soybean prices has made Indian meal exports uncompetitive
over the past one month. SOPA has estimated India's soybean meal
exports at 1.25 million tonnes for FY 2017-18 compared to 2 mn tonnes
reported for the previous year.
• The government has recently increased import duty on crude palm oil to
44% from 30%, while custom duties on refined palmolein and refined
palm oil has been raised to 54% from 40%. However SEA is seeking hike in
import duties of soya oil too in same proportion as palm oils for farmers.
• Import duty on crude soy oil was hiked from 17.5 percent to 30 percent
while refined soy oil import duty is hiked from 20% to 35%.
• Demand of soybean is higher than normal as stockiest are active in
market. Good demand for edible oils during winter season remains
supportive to cash market. Edible oil producers are also increasing their
operating capacities due hike in import duty of vegetable oils.
• Soybean at CBOT continued the positive tone. Dry weather continues in
Argentina and output could be further affected under the current
scenario. Argentina’s production could be down by up to 10 mn tonnes.
• Harvesting has picked up in Brazil, however it is lagging behind
compared to previous year. At the annual outlook forum this year, USDA
has reduced soybean output and ending stocks this season.
• Brazil’s crop is anticipated to be bigger than last year’s record 114 mn
tonnes & global supply estimate is higher amid record crop in U.S.
2700
2980
3260
3540
3820
4100
4380
No
v-15
Mar
-16
Jun
-16
Se
p-1
6
De
c-16
Ap
r-17
Jul-1
7
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Soybean Indore
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Soybean output estimated 24% lower than last year
Bullish
Robust demand from stockeist and plants
Bulllish
Declining arrivals Bullish
Profit–booking at higher levels Bearish
Lower soymeal export Bearish
Dry weather in Argentina and lagged Brazilian harvest leading to positive tone at CBOT
Bullish
Higher global output on back of high Brazil and US harvest
Bearish
Based on primary and secondary factors
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
05-03-2018 26-02-2018 %Change
Indore 3931 3766 4.38
Kota 3750 3650 2.74
Nagpur 4014.75 3822.85 5.02
Fundamental Report SOYBEAN
0
Date: 06-03-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
• Castor seed prices remained weak tracking subdued demand in spot
markets across the country against higher supplies. Moreover, the
arrival pressure of new crop also kept the market sentiments low.
• Traders reported that demand of castor seed from millers remained
weak due to slow off take of castor oil.
• In addition to it, millers are aware of the fact that new crop supply will
increase from March on wards which will help them to procure castor
seed at lower price level. Overall trend of castor seed is down for near
term.
• SEA conducted Castor crop survey for crop estimation in major growing
states like Gujarat, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. It has
estimated domestic crop at 14.30 lakh tonnes for 2017-18 as compared to
10.60 lakh tonnes in 2016-17. Besides, market was expecting castor seed
crop higher by around 10-15 per cent over last year's production.
• As per ministry of Agriculture, total area under castor in India for the
year 2017-18 is estimated to be 759000 hectares as against last year’s
estimate of 830000 hectares.
• Total area under castor in Rajasthan for the year 2017-18 is taken to be
1,31,000 hectares as per the government’s estimates against last year’s
estimate of 1,42,600 hectares, which has decreased by 8% as compared
to the previous year. Total production in the state is estimated to be 1.58
lakh tons during the year 2017-18.
• Total area under castor in Gujarat for the year 2017-18 is taken to be
5,95,600 hectares as per the government’s estimates against last year’s
estimate of 5,65,400 hectares, which has increased by 5.3% as compared
to the previous year. Total production in the state is estimated to be
12.20 lakh tons during the year 2017-18.
• As per the Solvent Extractor Association of India Castor oil exports
during the financial year 2017-18 till December stood at 4.11 lakh tonnes
as against 4.15 lakh tonnes in corresponding period last year. In 2016-17
total castor oil exports reported were 5.37 lakh tonnes.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
05-03-2018 26-02-2018 %Change
Mahsana 3945 4030 -2.11
Dhanera 3920 3960 -1.01
Deesa 4112.3 4169.8 -1.38
2800
3160
3520
3880
4240
4600
4960
Feb
-15
May
-15
Au
g-1
5
No
v-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-16
Jul-1
6
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
Jun
-17
Se
p-1
7
De
c-17
Castor - Deesa
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Higher production expectation Bearish
Increased supplies of new crop in spot markets
Bearish
Subdued demand from millers for castor seed
Bearish
Lower acreage under Castor seed
Bullish
Lower castor oil exports Bearish
Improved demand at lower levels
Bullish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
Fundamental Report CASTOR SEED
0
Date: 06-03-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Fundamental Report TURMERIC
• Turmeric prices in futures as well as in spot markets across the
country have declined tracking subdued demand. Traders do
expect the export demand to improve at lower levels in coming
days.
• New crop arrivals are reported form Nizamabad, Sangli, Erode
Duggirala, Basmatnagar markets. New Turmeric supply in the spot
market is improving gradually, but buyers are not in hurry to
procure at current rates due to sluggishness persist in futures.
• As per market participants, Turmeric prices are expected to trade
sideways to downward amid sufficient stock availability in major
markets followed by entry of new crop in decent quantities and
subdued domestic demand.
• However, the fundamentals support a firm market on the basis of
reports that the production in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and
Telangana would be lower than last season. Total production of
turmeric is likely to decline by almost 2-3 lakh bags in the current
year due to poor rainfall in major producing states such as
Tamilnadu and Andhra Pradesh.
• As per trade sources, production of Turmeric is pegged around 55-
60 lakh bags versus 65 lakh bags (70kg each) in last year.
• As per the Spices Board of India, Turmeric production in 2016-17
estimated at 10,51,160 tonnes as against 9,67,060 tonnes in 2015-16.
• According to commerce ministry, the country's Turmeric export
during April-October 2017-18 declined by 13.80 per cent at 65,693.32
metric tonnes as compared to 76,208.44 metric tonnes same
period last year. India exported 125,536.43 metric tonnes of
Turmeric in 2016-17.
• India imported 11056.33 metric tonnes of Turmeric during April-
October 2017-18 as against 9537.83 metric tonnes imported same
period last year.
• Turmeric stocks at NCDEX approved warehouses as on 4th March
2018 increased at 199 tonnes as compared to 110 tonnes same
period last year.
4800
5500
6200
6900
7600
8300
9000
9700
Jun
-14
No
v-14
Ap
r-15
Se
p-1
5
Feb
-16
Jul-1
6
No
v-16
Ap
r-17
Se
p-1
7
Feb
-18
Turmeric : Unpolished fingers : Nizamabad
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Higher arrivals of new turmeric in spot markets
Bearish
Lower acreage against last year Bullish
Subdued demand from domestic and overseas buyers
Bearish
Decline in production prospects Bullish
Lower Turmeric export figures Bearish
Sufficient domestic stocks Bearish
Improved demand at lower levels Bullish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
05-03-2018 26-02-2018 %Change
Nizamabad 6650 6812.5 -2.39
Sangli 6550 6750 -2.96
Jaipur 7600 7800 -2.56
0
Date: 06-03-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
• According to IPC, India is expected to produce 64000 MT of black pepper
in 2018 while in 2017 they produced 57000 MT, also trade sources expect
it to be somewhere between 60-65000 MT this year
• India is expected to export 21000 tonnes in 2018 an increase of 5% from
2017 at 20,000 MT . Similarly imports are expected to be at 18000 MT in
2018 an increase of 12.5% from 16000 MT in 2017
• Domestic demand is expected to be at 58000 MT in 2018 compared to
55000 MT an increase of about 5%
• According to the all india spices exporters forum , exporters lost around 75
crores due to MIP
• The All india spices exporters forum also predict a 43% drop in the exports
this year from about 17600 tonnes to about 10000 tonnes this year and
they also expect a drop of 50% in exports if it isn’t Widthrawn immediately
• In order to curb illelgal exports to india sri lankan govt and sri lankan
ministry of primary industries has introduced new procedures to prevent
exporters getting certificates of origin under SAFTA or ISLFTA
• Arrivals in kerala increased by about 35% at 150 Tonnes in the month of
february compared to 110 Tonnes in the previous year.
• It is estimated that 40000 tonnes of pepper arrived in india through legal
and illegal routes which hammered the prices in the past year and forced
the govt to fix a minimum import price of 500 a kg
• IPSTPC has urged the Commerce Minister to remove black pepper from
SAFTA in order to save domestic growers as sri lanka’s production has
exponentially increased to 26000 MT in 2017 from 8000 MT in 2006 which
has led sri lankan exporters dumping pepper in india at lower prices
• The duty which was at 54% was reduced to 52% for Vietnam under the
ASEAN agreement , for the rest of the countries it is still at 70%
• Vietnam is projected to harvest about 230,00 tonnes this year up from
210,000 in 2017 and 175,000 in 2016
• World production in 2018 is expected to be around 445,000 MT compared
460,000 MT in 2017 a marginal decline of 3% due to unfavourable weather
conditions in brazil and sri lanka
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
05-03-2018 26-02-2018 %Change
Kochi 40000 41366.65 -3.30
Kannur 35500 36500 -2.74
Sirsi 37528 36882 1.75
25000
35000
45000
55000
65000
75000
85000
Jan
-13
Jun
-13
Dec
-13
May
-14
No
v-1
4
May
-15
Oct
-15
Ap
r-1
6
Oct
-16
Mar
-17
Sep
-17
Feb
-18
Pepper-Malabar Garbled : Cochin
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Higher Production estimates
Bearish
Higher exports
Bullish
Higher imports
Bearish
Higher arrivals Bearish
Higher demand Bullish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
Fundamental Report PEPPER
0
Date: 06-03-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
• As per second advance production estimate of 2017-18, India’s mustard
production is estimated at 7.54 million metric tonne which is 6.91 per cent
lower than first advance production estimate of 8.10 million metric tonne.
In 2016-17, government production estimate was 7.917 million metric
tonnes. Moreover, as per latest update from SEA of India, the total
production of mustard seed in the current year is estimated at 6.33 million
metric tonnes, down 2.45 lakh tonnes from the latest year.
• Lower production estimate is due to lower sowing acreage as farmers
shifted from mustard crop to other crops. According to the latest sowing
report as on 09th February 2017, mustard crop sowing acreage is reported
at 66.88 lakh hectares in 2017-18 which is 5.27 per cent lower than the
2016-17 acreage of 70.60 lakh hectares at the same time period. Lower
rainfall received at the time of sowing reduced the acreage in major
producing state like Rajasthan. Moreover, lower remuneration in mustard
crop also made farmers to switch to other crops.
• Unseasonal rains and hailstorm have damaged standing mustard crop in
some parts of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. Moreover, rain news in
some parts of Rajasthan may delay arrivals of the new crop.
• Arrivals of new mustard crop is reported in some mandis of Madhya
Pradesh and Rajasthan. Moisture content of the new crop is higher than
normal. However, crop quality is good. Harvesting activities is expected to
increase after festival of Holi.
• India’s mustard meal exports in the month of December 2017 were 32.832
(provisional) thousand MT, lower by 52.48 per cent against 69.105
thousand MT in November 2017. Average FoB price of meal in December is
recorded at $224 per tonne which is slightly higher than average price of
$223 per tonne in the month of November. Total exports from April to Dec
2017 are 4.25 Lakh MT against 1.75 lakh MT last year same time period.
• Import duty on crude oils has been increased to 25 per cent from 12.5 per
cent, while the tax on refined crude oils increased to 35 per cent from 20%.
• Madhya Pradesh government included mustard crop in Bhavantar Bhugtan
Yojana (BBY). Under BBY, the government does not procure the produce
from farmers. Instead, when prices fall below the minimum support price
(MSP), the government pays the difference between the MSP and a modal
rate worked out by taking the average of selling price in mandis in three
states over a fixed period.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
05-03-2018 26-02-2018 %Change
Jaipur 4150 4070 1.97
Alwar 4050.75 3973.5 1.94
Sriganga Nagar
4020 4000 0.50
3,500
3,750
4,000
4,250
4,500
4,750
5,000
5,250
Jun
-15
Au
g-1
5
No
v-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-16
Jul-1
6
Se
p-1
6
De
c-16
Mar
-17
May
-17
Au
g-1
7
No
v-17
Jan
-18
Rapeseed & Mustard-Black - 42% oil content : Jaipur
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Lower production estimate Bullish
Lower sowing acreage Bullish
Unfavourable weather condition Bullish
Arrivals of new crop Bearish
Lower meal export demand Bearish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
Fundamental Report RM SEED
0
Date: 06-03-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
• As In Gujarat, acreage was higher this rabi as farmers prefer jeera
crop over wheat, coriander and pulses as prices record prices during
last two years. As per latest report by Department of Agriculture
Gujarat, cumin acreage in the state was about 3.827 lakh ha against
2.787 lakh hectares sown during same period last year.
• According to the trade sources, favourable sowing conditions in
Rajasthan and Gujarat will witness strong jeera production in the
current year.
• Production is estimated to be higher by 35-40% than last year with
both Gujarat and Rajasthan reporting increase in acreage. As per
Unjha based traders, Jeera output is estimated at around 65-70 lakh
bags (55 kg each) in 2018.
• Arrivals are as high as 18,000-20,000 bags per day from Gujarat.
More jeera will come into the market when harvest starts in
Rajasthan.
• Jeera stock with stockiest at present is lower than last year,
according to the sources, total carryover stocks are reported in the
range of 5-6 lakh bags against 14-15 lakh bags of the last year in the
same period.
• According to the DGCIS, India exports of jeera in the time period of
April to November 2017 is reported at 98.681 thousand MT which is
15 per cent higher than the last year exports for the same time
period. Jeera exports are set to rise in 2017-18 (Apr-Mar) due to the
ongoing political unrest in Syria and decline in stocks in Turkey.
Until the new crop arrives in Syria in June, India will be the sole
supplier of the spice in the global market.
• According to market sources, Syrian Cumin seed crop is likely to be
around 30,000 to 40,000 metric tonnes this year, while Turkey is
likely to harvest between 12,000 to 15,000 metric tonnes.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
05-03-2018 26-02-2018 %Change
Unjha 16812.5 17477.05 -3.80
Junagadh 13650 13750 -0.73
Dhanera 13025 13697 -4.91
13000
15000
17000
19000
21000
Feb
-16
May
-16
Jul-1
6
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
Jun
-17
Se
p-1
7
De
c-17
Feb
-18
Cumin Seed (Kala Jeera) - Unjha
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Higher jeera sowing acreage Bearish
Conducive weather in major producing states
Bearish
Higher production estimate Bearish
News crop arrivals Bearish
Lower stocks Bullish
Higher export demand Bullish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
Fundamental Report JEERA
0
Date: 06-03-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
India to double state purchases of
oilseeds, pulses to help farmers
Sugar industry may need
government support to tide over
glut, price problems
SEA sees 4% dip in mustard output
on lower area
Edible oil industry seeks hike in
import duty of soyabean oil
Centre raises import duty on chana
to 60%
Gujarat to procure additional 1 lt of
groundnut from Mar 5r
To purchase the India Commodity Year Book 2018, contact us at
Official Production Estimates
First advance estimates 2017-18 &
previous years’ estimates: First
Advance Estimates 2017-18
MINIMUM SUPPORT PRICE (Rs/Qtl.)
Commodity 2016-17 2017-18
KHARIF
Paddy Common 1470 1550
paddy grade A 1510 1590
Jowar Hybrid 1625 1700
Jowar Maldandi 1650 1725
Bajra 1330 1425
Ragi 1725 1900
Maize 1365 1425
Tur 5050 5450*
Moong 5225 5575*
Urad 5000 5400*
Groundnut 4220 4450*
Sunflower seed 3950 4100 #
Soyabean black 2775 3050
Sesamum 5000 5300 #
Nigerseed 3825 4050 #
Cotton(Medium Staple) 3680 4020
Cotton(Long Staple) 4160 4320
RABI
Commodity 2016-17 2017-18
Wheat 1625 1735
Barley 1325 1410
Gram 4000* 4400
Masur (Lentil) 3950* 4250
Rapeseed/Mustard 3700* 4000
Safflower 3700* 4100
Wheat 1625 1735
*includes bonus of Rs 200 per quintal
# includes bonus of Rs 100 per quintal
THE WEEK THAT WAS
Commodity Latest Fortnight ago
Month ago Year ago
05-Mar-18 19-Feb-18 05-Feb-18 06-Mar-17
Soyabean 3931 3838 3607 3025
RM seed 4150 4112.5 4025 3824.7
Turmeric 6650 7129.15 7375 6700
Cotton 19919.4 19366.45 19473.2 20971.15
Pepper 40000 41800 44050 62830
Jeera 16812.5 18863.35 19661.5 17061.55
Castor 4112.3 4250 4277.9 4197.4
PRICE TRACKER
Link for commodity-wise and market-
wise prices and arrivals:
http://agmarknet.gov.in/PriceAndArriv
als/CommodityWiseDailyReport2.aspx
0
Date: 06-03-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
RABI SOWING - Link
0
Date: 06-03-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Answers for 27 Feb 2018 Quiz:
Ans 1: No Ans 2: Bullish Ans 3: Vishal Patil, Sarita Solanki
People who gave correct answer:
Anilkumar Parvathaneni
ASHWANI KUMAR
Abinandhan Ramamoorthy
Amit kumar singh
LAXMIKANT S H
Sandipkumar Nayak
Krishnaji.mangalagiri
S.Narendra
Sourav Ailawadhi
Abhijit Thorat
venkanna katikella
Neetu Gautam
Praveen Kumar Mundra
Maheshkumar Ramaswamy
Devaraj L
Rajesh Yadav
A.Ravi krishna
Sanjay Singh
lalji singh yadav
Harijana seenaiah
GAUTAM VASHISTHA
Vineet Poonia
Sudhakar Reddy Soma
Pawan Kumar Chaturvedi
Arun kumar
Sandeep Shedge
Jugnu
Manoj Kumar Pandey
PRIYA RAJKUMARSINGH SENGAR
Dr.Ravi Pratap Singh Sangwan
Naresh Sharma
Lucky Winner:
Ashwani Kumar
0
Date: 06-03-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Advisory Team
Basant Vaid Head: TCIG [email protected]
Sreedhar Nandam Vice President: SCM [email protected]
Research Team
Suresh Solanki Assistant Manager: TCIG [email protected]
Kamna Malhotra Economist: TCIG [email protected]
Akash Jaiswal Research Analyst: TCIG [email protected]
Ansh Aggarwal Senior Officer: Trade Support [email protected]
For any research queries, contact us at [email protected]
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