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0
Date: 20-02-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
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• Cotton • Sugar • Soyben • RM Seed • Castor seed • Turmeric • Jeera
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NCML COMMODITY MARKET MONITOR
Cotton | Sugar | Soybean | RM Seed | Castor seed | Turmeric | Jeera
OUTLOOK
OTHER DATA Sowing progress | Advance estimates | Kharif and rabi MSP
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Cotton • Soybean • RM Seed • Jeera • Chilli • Castor Seed • Turmeric
0
Date: 20-02-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Rs 20280 continued to act as a key hurdle in the price rise of cotton.
However with the downward revision of production estimates, declining
yield in the key producing areas as a result of pest attacks have provided
some support to the correcting prices. Looking ahead, any significant rise
from the current levels looks unlikely in the short term as the production
even after being downgraded is on the higher side. Upside will remain
capped around Rs 20500-Rs21100 mark. Short term selling pressure can
be seen below Rs19100 mark for downside towards Rs 18700. For the
short term the immediate resistance is seen standing at Rs 20530 which
once broken can give way to prices for another buying for Rs 21040 mark.
The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has, in its latest estimate, lowered
India’s 2017-18 cotton crop size by 8 lakh bales to 367 lakh bales against
its earlier estimate of 375 lakh bales. CAI reduced the estimate citing
severe infestation with pink bollworm in states like Maharashtra &
Telangana. Last year’s production was 345 lakh bales.
The projected balance sheet drawn by the CAI estimated total cotton
supply for the season at 417 lakh bales including an opening stock (or
carryover stock) of 30 lakh bales at the beginning of the season and the
imports, which the CAI estimated, at 20 lakh bales.
The domestic consumption is pegged at 320 lakh bales, while exports
for the season are seen at 55 lakh bales. The carryover stock at the end
of this season on September 30, 2018 is estimated to be 42 lakh bales.
The exports have been revised downwards to 55 lakh bales amidst
lower production estimates and firm local prices.
Maharashtra’s output is forecast to drop to 6 million bales for the
2017/18 marketing year, down from 10.7 million bales in the 2016/17, due
pink bollworm infestation reducing yields in 80% of state’s cotton area.
Cotton yield in Gujarat too may take a 15% hit this year due to the pink
bollworm pest attack even as the cotton acreage in Gujarat increased
to 26.42 lakh hectares 2017-18 from 24.04 lakh hectares last season. Cotton production in Punjab, Haryana & Ganganagar circle of
Rajasthan, is also likely to fall short of the targets due the non-
conducive weather.
Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) and multinationals such as Louis
Dreyfus & Glencore were seen stepping up purchases of cotton amidst
arrivals across growing regions. Higher demand for better grades of
cotton are keeping market sentiments firm.
About half of the crop, nearly 165 lakh bales, has arrived in the market.
The February USDA report has raised the world cotton production by
400,000 bales over last month, as higher estimates for China, Brazil and
South Africa offset lower expectations for India and Australia.
USDA in its latest report pegs 2017-18 world cotton production at 121.37
mn bales (of 480-lb) against 106.57 mn bales produced in 2016-17. The
consumption is pegged at 120.50 mn bales against 114.75 mn bales in
2016-17 and the ending stocks are estimated higher at 88.55 mn bales
against 87.66 mn bales last year.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
19-02-2018 12-02-2018 %Change
Kadi 29 mm 11093 11333 -2.12
Rajkot (29 mm) 19366.45 19582.3 -1.10
Abohar (Med Staple) 10425 10600 -1.65
IMPORTANT LEVELS
S2 S1 CMP R1 R2
18730 19140 19366 20530 21040
Outlook: Price will move steadily towards Rs 19150 and selling pressure will intensify below it for Rs 18700 mark.
14000
16000
18000
20000
22000
24000
No
v-15
De
c-15
Feb
-16
Ap
r-16
Jun
-16
Au
g-1
6
Oct
-16
De
c-16
Feb
-17
Ap
r-17
Jun
-17
Au
g-1
7
Oct
-17
De
c-17
Feb
-18
Cotton - 29 mm - Rajkot
COTTON FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5) *
Cut down in India’s cotton production estimate by CAI due to pink bollworm infestation in Maharashtra & Telangana
Bullish 25% 4
Higher overall production over last year and higher closing stock expected from last year
Bearish 30% 2
Aggressive commercial buying by CCI and Multinationals
Bullish 25% 4
Downward revision in India’s cotton exports
Bearish 15% 2
Higher global production Bearish 5% 2
Overall fundamental score 3
*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish
Fundamentals
Technical Price Analysis
COTTON
0
Date: 20-02-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
As expected in our earlier edition of NCoMM the prices which were
showing signs of tiring up witnessed some profit booking but regained its
positive momentum as the undertone remained positive on account of
lower production estimates. Prices, in the recent surge, have touched a
high of Rs 3931 in Indore market and now if the prices are revised another
leg of sharp up-move can be expected. As the domestic and global
fundamentals looks supportive in the near term some more upside looks
pending which is likely to happen in the short term itself. Prices on a
breach of Rs 3930 on the upside can pull itself higher towards Rs3965 and
then towards 4040.
Latest survey by Soybean Processors' Association (SOPA), estimates
India's soybean output at 8.35 mn tonnes for the 2017-18 season, about
24% lower than 10.9 mn tonnes produced in the previous year. SOPA
earlier had estimated the output at 9.15 mn tonnes in its Oct survey.
The government on the other hand pegged India's total soybean output
at 12.22 million tonnes in its first advanced estimate for 2017-18, down
from its 2016-17 4th advance estimate of 13.79 million tonnes.
Both private & government agencies have forecast India’s soybean
output to remain lower this year due to 5% lower acreage over last year,
flood-induced crop damage in major growing states, followed by blight
disease in the plants.
SOPA estimated total arrival of soybean into mandis at 5.3 mn tonnes of
which crushing mills have processed 3.8 mn tonnes. Soybean stock with
farmers, traders & plants stands currently at 4.53 mn tonnes
Soybean rates in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra have risen sharply
due to lower availability. Positive trend overseas and restricted supplies
in the domestic spot market are fuelling Soybean prices in India.
Spurt in soybean prices has made Indian meal exports uncompetitive
over the past one month. SOPA has estimated India's soybean meal
exports at 1.25 million tonnes for FY 2017-18 compared to 2 mn tonnes
reported for the previous year.
Import duty on crude soy oil was hiked from 17.5 percent to 30 percent
while refined soy oil import duty is hiked from 20% to 35%.
Demand of soybean is higher than normal as stockiest are active in
market. Good demand for edible oils during winter season remains
supportive to cash market. Edible oil producers are also increasing their
operating capacities due hike in import duty of vegetable oils.
The international soybean futures hit a 10-month high as continued dry
weather concerns in Argentina were the fuel for the rally. Argentina’s
production could be down by up to 10 mn tonnes (mmt).
However offsetting a good portion of Argentina’s production losses is
Brazil, whose crop is anticipated to be bigger than last year’s record 114
mn tonnes. Brazil’s harvest is 3 percentage points behind the pace at
28.7%, but overall global supply is high amid record crop in U.S. & Brazil.
IMPORTANT LEVELS
S2 S1 CMP R1 R2
3400 3560 3838 3965 4040
Outlook: Prices will resume uptrend on a close above 3935 and can test Rs 3965 and Rs4040 thereafter.
2700
2980
3260
3540
3820
4100
4380
No
v-15
Mar
-16
Jun
-16
Se
p-1
6
De
c-16
Ap
r-17
Jul-1
7
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Soybean Indore
SOYABEAN FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5) *
Further downward revision in Soybean output by SOPA; the o/p is now estimated to be 24% lower than last year
Bullish 30% 4
Robust demand from stockeist and plants
Bulllish 15% 4
Hike in import duty of Soy oil
Bullish 15% 4
Lower soymeal export Bearish 20% 2
Dry weather in Argentina and slow pace of Brazilian harvest
Bullish 5% 4
Higher global output on back of high Brazil and US harvest
Bearish 15% 2
Overall fundamental score
3.3
*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish
Fundamentals
Technical Price Analysis
SOYBEAN
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
19-02-2018 12-02-2018 %Change
Indore 3838 3931 -2.37
Kota 3712.5 3725 -0.34
Nagpur 3949.1 3964 -0.38
0
Date: 20-02-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
After some sudden rise in prices the focus shifted to the commencement
of arrivals in the key mandis which capped the upside. Technically, the
prices continued to trade within the recent consolidation range of Rs
4210-3975 with prices facing technical supply pressure around the upper
band. Now till the time prices manages to stay above Rs 3975,
consolidation will continue with upward bias. Prices will gather strength
for a fresh up move only on a sustainable crack of Rs4210. We still expect
prices to trade range bound between Rs4210 and 3975 for the short term.
A crack of Rs 3975 will lead to mounting of fresh of selling pressure for
the short term pulling prices down towards Rs 3850 mark.
Madhya Pradesh government included mustard crop in Bhavantar
Bhugtan Yojana (BBY). Under BBY, the government does not procure
the produce from farmers. Instead, when prices fall below the minimum
support price (MSP), the government pays the difference between the
MSP and a modal rate worked out by taking the average of selling price
in mandis in three states over a fixed period.
According to the latest sowing report as on 09th February 2017, mustard
crop sowing acreage is reported at 66.88 lakh hectares in 2017-18 which
is 5.27 per cent lower than the 2016-17 acreage of 70.60 lakh hectares at
the same time period. Lower rainfall received at the time of sowing
reduced the acreage in major producing state like Rajasthan. Moreover,
lower remuneration in mustard made farmers to switch to other crops.
Unseasonal rains and hailstorm have damaged standing mustard crop in
some parts of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. Usually, if it rains it is
good for mustard crop, but the impact of hailstorm is unfavourable.
Arrivals of new mustard crop is reported in some mandis of Madhya
Pradesh in small amount. Moisture content of the new crop is higher
than normal. But, crop quality is good. Arrivals are expected to increase
in coming days which might put downward pressure in the spot market.
Import duty on crude oils has been increased to 25 per cent from 12.5%
while the tax on refined crude oils increased to 35 per cent from 20%.
As per first advance production estimate of 2017-18, India’s mustard
production target is estimated at 8.1 million metric tonne which is 1.54
per cent higher than last year fourth advance production estimate of
7.977 million metric tonne. However, lower sowing acreage recorded in
the present Rabi season might not let production to increase in 2017-18
as compared to 2016-17. Moreover, market sources are also estimating
lower production estimate this year as compare to last year.
India’s mustard meal exports in the month of December 2017 were
32.832 (provisional) thousand MT, lower by 52.48 per cent against 69.105
thousand MT in November 2017. Average FoB price of meal in December
is recorded at $224 per tonne which is slightly higher than average price
of $223 per tonne in the month of November. Total exports from April to
December 2017 are 4.25 Lakh MT as against 1.75 lakh MT last year in the
same time period.
IMPORTANT LEVELS
S2 S1 CMP R1 R2
3915 3975 4074 4210 4350
Outlook: The prices are expected to continue trading within a range of Rs 4210-3975. Fresh move will be seen beyond either of the two ranges.
3,500
3,750
4,000
4,250
4,500
4,750
5,000
5,250
Jun
-15
Au
g-1
5
No
v-15
Feb
-16
Ap
r-16
Jul-1
6
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
Jun
-17
Se
p-1
7
De
c-17
Feb
-18
Rapeseed & Mustard-Black - 42% oil content : Jaipur
MUSTARD FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5) *
Mustard crop in Bhavantar Bhugtan yojana
Consolidation 10% 3
Lower sowing acreage
Bullish 10% 4
Unseasonal rainfall and hailstorm
Bullish 15% 4
New crop arrivals Bearish 40% 1
Lower production estimate
Bullish 10% 4
Lower meal exports Bearish 15% 2
Overall fundamental score
2.8
*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish
Fundamentals
Technical Price Analysis
MUSTARD
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
19-02-2018 12-02-2017 %Change
Jaipur 4112.5 4100 0.30
Alwar 4025 4025 0.00
Sriganga Nagar 3681 3715 -0.92
0
Date: 20-02-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
As a result of farmer shifting to jeera, significant rise in acreage in the key
jeera producing regiosn of Gujarat was seen. Coupled with low export
demand on the wake of high prices in the domestic market continued to
pull prices down heavily last week. For the coming weeks we can expect
further bearishness and till the time prices are trading below Rs 19200 the
prices will remain pressurised and chances of recovery will be bleak. A
further slide towards the next important support mark of Rs18100 can be
seen and if 18800 level is sustained by the prices which will invite stronger
bears to enter for the middle term.
With farmers shifting to jeera from groundnut, cotton and
coriander, the acreage under the spice in Gujarat rose 37.31 per
cent on year to 3.827 lakh hectares, according to the Gujarat
agriculture department.
According to farmer sources, the cloudy weather and a rise in
moisture in climate since mid-January has affected the crop.
Moreover, a disease ‘alternaria blight’ has surfaced in select
pockets of Rajkot and Jamnagar districts.
According to the trade sources, jeera standing crop in Rajasthan
and Gujarat is in good condition. Conducive weather will help to
increase yield, which will ultimately boost jeera production.
According to the market participants, the arrivals in the Unjha
market are in the range of 10,000-12,000 bags (of each 40 kg) a
day. There is likely to be further downward pressure on the prices
as the arrivals peak later in March.
Jeera stock with stockiest at present is lower than last year,
according to the sources, total carryover stocks are reported in
the range of 5-6 lakh bags against 14-15 lakh bags of the last year
in the same period.
Jeera exports are set to rise in 2017-18 (Apr-Mar) due to the
ongoing political unrest in Syria and decline in stocks in Turkey.
Until the new crop arrives in Syria in June, India will be the sole
supplier of the spice in the global market. According to the Spice
board of India, India exports of jeera in the time period of April to
September 2017 is reported at 79.46 thousand MT which is 15.83
per cent higher than the export of 68.596 thousand MT in 2016 in
the same time period.
The Spices Board of India has estimated 2016-17 Cumin seed
production at 4.85 lakh tonnes a decline of almost 4 per cent from
2015-16 production of 5.03 lakh tonnes. However, in 2017-18, jeera
production is expected to be higher due to higher sowing acreage
in major producing states of Gujarat and Rajasthan.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
19-02-2018 12-02-2017 %Change
Unjha 18683.35 19266.25 -3.03
Mumbai 25000 25000 0.00
Rajkot 16000 15000 6.67
IMPORTANT LEVELS
S2 S1 CMP R1 R2
18100 18490 18683 18800 19200
Outlook: Prices will continue to trade with bearish bias and move closer to Rs 18100.
13000
15000
17000
19000
21000
Feb
-16
May
-16
Jul-1
6
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
Jun
-17
Se
p-1
7
De
c-17
Feb
-18
Cumin Seed (Kala Jeera) - Unjha
JEERA FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5) *
Higher jeera sowing acreage
Bearish 15% 2
Pest attack in some parts of Gujarat
Bullish 10% 4
Conducive weather in major producing states
Bearish 20% 2
News crop arrivals Bearish 25% 1
Lower stocks Bullish 10% 4
Higher export demand Bullish 10% 4
Higher production estimate
Bearish 10% 2
Overall fundamental score
2.35
*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish
Fundamentals
Technical Price Analysis
JEERA
0
Date: 20-02-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Fundamentals
Chilli exported about 2.35 lakh tonnes this compared to about 1.65 lakh
tonnes last year on the back of higher production and lower prices this
year- an increase of about 42%
Exports in the EU region have been hit due reports of residues like
carbofuran, a pesticide, in products which may have a bullish impact
Cold storage stock in Guntur area in reported to be higher to around
90,000-99,000 MT this year as compared to 40000-46000 last year on
the back of higher production
According to Agmarknet chilli arrivals have been around 4000 MT from
1-15 february as compared to 11175 MT last year a decrease of about 65%
Lower chilli arrivals in the market indicates that stockists are holding
back their stocks in expectation of higher prices as this is the lean
season
According to AP agriculture dept as on 14 February, chilli area declined
by 35% to 0.25 lakh Ha as compared to 0.39 Lakh Ha , while in Telegana
it was reduced by 55% from 0.24 lakh Ha to 0.11 lakh Ha this year
According to trade sources an inventory of more than three lakh
tonnes as opening stock is expected this year. This is because of a
bumper production of 18 lakh tonnes last year which together with a
carryover stock took the supply to over 19 lakh tonnes
A score of 3.4 shows that that prices would be range bound with a
bullish undertone.
3000
5050
7100
9150
11200
13250
15300
Feb
-…
No
v…
Au
g…
Jun
-10
Mar
-11
De
c-11
Se
p-1
2
Jun
-13
Ap
r-14
Jan
-15
Oct
-15
Jul-1
6
Ap
r-17
Jan
-18
Chillies - Guntur : Bangalore
IMPORTANT LEVELS
S2 S1 CMP R1 R2
5300 6500 8400 9000 9800
Outlook: Prices will trade with positive bias and will move closer to Rs 9000 and then Rs 9800 mark in the coming days.
Technical Price Analysis
Sharp decline in the area of chilli and sluggish arrivals indicate that traders
are expecting a spurt in prices of chilli in the near future. Prices have shown
sharp recovery since hitting the multi-year low in May last year. With fall in
acreage, higher export, and holding back of stock by the traders have all
contributed to the rise in prices of the red spice. The momentum of
recovery is looking to be strong enough to continue for some more time as
well. In the near term prices in the Bangalore market for Guntur chilli can
show further recovery towards Rs 9800 odd levels which is the immediate
and an important resistance level. Fresh move can only be expected in case
the prices breach and stay above that level for sufficient time.
PEPPER FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5) *
Higher exports Bullish 20% 4
Decrease in area and
failure of crop Bullish 30% 4
Higher carryover stock Bearish 30% 2
Low arrivals Bullish 20% 4
Overall fundamental score
3.4
*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
19-02-2018 12-02-2017 %Change
Guntur Teja 9800 9800 0.00
Warangal Teja 9500 9600 -1.04
Guntur NCDEX 7200 7200 0.00
CHILLI
0
Date: 20-02-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
As we expected, the recovery which started last week lacked intensity
and prove to be temporary as prices stared to correct mildly again. For
the coming week we hold our previous weeks’ view and expect prices to
resume its losing streak. Rs 4360 is the nearest resistance and is not
expected to be cracked by the prices in the short term. On a slip below
Rs4170 a fresh leg of selling momentum can develop pulling down prices
towards the support of Rs 4060 point mark. Furthermore, a breach of Rs
4060 will result in escalates selling pressure making castor prices weak for
middle term and pulling it down towards 3845 levels in the weeks ahead.
Increased supplies of new castor crop in spot markets and also the
expectation of higher production during 2018 season kept the market
sentiments weak.
As per Deesa based trader’s the new castor crop supply is gradually
increasing which is keeping bearish sentiment. Further traders are also
expecting production of castor seed in 2018 season up by 8-12 per cent
over last year.
Millers are procuring castor seed as per requirement due to steady
sales of castor oil. Further they are in no hurry to procure the
commodity in bulk quantities as they are aware of the fact that castor
seed price are likely to decline once the new crop start arriving in
market yards in full swing in coming weeks.
As per the data from Agriculture Ministry, Castor acreage in Gujarat
recorded an increase of 5.67 per cent at 5.96 lakh hectares as
compared to 5.64 lakh hectares last year.
In Rajasthan the Castor acreage registered a decline of 6.98 per cent in
area to 1.6 lakh hectares in same period last year. The overall Castor
acreage is slightly down from last year which may not affect the
production much but late sowing in major growing states (Gujarat and
Rajasthan) could affect the final yield to some extent.
As per the Solvent Extractor Association of India Castor oil exports
during the financial year 2017-18 till December stood at 4.11 lakh tonnes
as against 4.15 lakh tonnes in corresponding period last year. In 2016-17
total castor oil exports reported were 5.37 lakh tonnes.
Due to higher imports by China in the month of December the total
castor oil exports increased to 49,076 tonnes as compared to 38,442
tonnes in December last year.
As on 18th February Castor seed stock position at NCDEX approved
warehouses stood at 25,708 tonnes as against 32,779 tonnes same
period last year.
Overall fundamental score of 2.5 indicates that Castor seed prices
would remain range bound with slight bearish tone due to higher
supplies of new crop in markets.
IMPORTANT LEVELS
S2 S1 CMP R1 R2
4061.5 4170 4250 4355 4550
Outlook: The prices are expected stretch its losing streak towards 4060 mark on a breach of Rs 4170.
2800
3160
3520
3880
4240
4600
4960
Feb
-15
May
-15
Au
g-1
5
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-16
Jul-1
6
Se
p-1
6
De
c-16
Mar
-17
Jun
-17
Se
p-1
7
No
v-17
Feb
-18
Castor - Deesa
CASTOR SEED FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)
*
Increased supplies of
new crop in spot
markets Bearish 25% 2
Higher production
expectation Bearish 20% 2
Lower acreage under
Castor seed Bullish 15% 3
Subdued demand
from millers for
castor seed Bearish 20% 2
Improved demand at
lower levels Bullish 20% 4
Overall fundamental score
2.5
*1.Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish
Fundamentals
Technical Price Analysis
CASTOR SEED
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
19-02-2018 12-02-2018 %Change
Kadi 4100 4050 1.23
Rajkot 3725 3850 -3.25
Deesa 4250 4231.9 0.43
0
Date: 20-02-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Prices have recently slid below the important support mark of Rs 7250
and this has made bears more strong for a short term move.
Fundamentally the turmeric prices are caught in mixed fundamental
scenario where on one hand the expectation of a lower crop this year are
underpinning the prices and sufficient stocks in the market are not letting
prices move northward. Till the time Rs 7250 is honoured by the prices
and trading is taking place below it, we can expect prices to show some
downside movement. Sustained trading below it will make prices bearish
towards Rs 6600 and then towards 6410.
Turmeric spot and futures have remained range bound due to limited
demand from domestic and overseas buyers against steady supplies in
most of the spot markets.
As per market sources, Prices of Turmeric have remained steady at
Duggirala, Sangli and Erode markets amid matching supply and
demand. Arrivals and business activities in Maharashtra were negligible
markets due to recent hailstorm in Maharashtra. The heavy showers
coupled with hailstorm have severely damaged the standing crop in
Vidarbha.
According to traders, the new crop arrivals have been keeping market
sentiments low. Turmeric outlook in long run is positive as the supplies
will get tight due to lower sowing and unfavourable climatic
conditions.
As per trader estimates, the production this year is expected to
decline. This lower production will be to some extent compensated by
a higher production expectation from Andhra Pradesh.
As per trade sources, production of Turmeric is pegged around 55-60
lakh bags versus 65 lakh bags (70kg each) in last year.
As per the Spices Board of India, Turmeric production in 2016-17
estimated at 10,51,160 tonnes as against 9,67,060 tonnes in 2015-16.
Export demand is not very promising at the moment though it is
expected to pick up the pace during peak arrival season as the prices
declines at that time.
According to commerce ministry, the country's Turmeric export during
April-October 2017-18 declined by 13.80 per cent at 65,693.32 metric
tonnes as compared to 76,208.44 metric tonnes same period last year.
India exported 125,536.43 metric tonnes of Turmeric in 2016-17.
India imported 11056.33 metric tonnes of Turmeric during April-
October 2017-18 as against 9537.83 metric tonnes imported same
period last year.
Overall fundamental score of 2.6 indicates that Turmeric prices might
be trading with bearish tone on improvement in supplies however, the
expectation of export demand may provide good support at lower
levels.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
19-02-2018 12-02-2018 %Change
Nizamabad 7129 7200 -0.98
Coimbatore 7600 7400 2.70
Sangli 7200 7150 0.69
IMPORTANT LEVELS
S2 S1 CMP R1 R2
6410 6600 7129 7255 7650
Outlook: Selling pressure will be seen on the prices pulling it down closer to Rs 6600 mark.
4800
5500
6200
6900
7600
8300
9000
9700
Jun
-14
No
v-14
Ap
r-15
Se
p-1
5
Feb
-16
Jul-1
6
No
v-16
Ap
r-17
Se
p-1
7
Feb
-18
Turmeric : Unpolished fingers : Nizamabad
COTTON FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5) *
Limited demand from domestic and overseas buyers
Bearish 15% 2
Higher arrivals of new turmeric in spot markets
Bearish 25% 2
Lower acreage against last year
Bullish 15% 3
Decline in production prospects
Bullish 25% 3
Expectation of pick up in export demand
Bullish 20% 3
Overall fundamental score
2.6
*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish
Fundamentals
Technical Price Analysis
TURMERIC
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Date: 20-02-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Wheat output this year would be
around 98 mt: Agricultural
Secretary
Soybean output to decline by 24%
on lower acreage, crop damage:
SOPA
Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra
assess effect of hailstorm on
standing crop
Jeera farmers on high alert for
Alternaria blight
Pepper growers want Sri Lankan
free trade pact quota scrapped
MSP will help neither farmers, nor
the agriculture sector
To purchase the India Commodity Year Book 2018, contact us at
Official Production Estimates
First advance estimates 2017-18 &
previous years’ estimates: First
Advance Estimates 2017-18
MINIMUM SUPPORT PRICE (Rs/Qtl.)
Commodity 2016-17 2017-18
KHARIF
Paddy Common 1470 1550
paddy grade A 1510 1590
Jowar Hybrid 1625 1700
Jowar Maldandi 1650 1725
Bajra 1330 1425
Ragi 1725 1900
Maize 1365 1425
Tur 5050 5450*
Moong 5225 5575*
Urad 5000 5400*
Groundnut 4220 4450*
Sunflower seed 3950 4100 #
Soyabean black 2775 3050
Sesamum 5000 5300 #
Nigerseed 3825 4050 #
Cotton(Medium Staple) 3680 4020
Cotton(Long Staple) 4160 4320
RABI
Commodity 2016-17 2017-18
Wheat 1625 1735
Barley 1325 1410
Gram 4000* 4400
Masur (Lentil) 3950* 4250
Rapeseed/Mustard 3700* 4000
Safflower 3700* 4100
Wheat 1625 1735
*includes bonus of Rs 200 per quintal
# includes bonus of Rs 100 per quintal
THE WEEK THAT WAS
Commodity Latest Fortnight ago
Month ago Year ago
19-Feb-18 05-Feb-18 19-Jan-18 20-Feb-17
Soyabean 3838 3607 3414 2976
RM seed 4112.5 4025 3996.25 3975.85
Turmeric 7129.15 7375 7650 7134.4
Cotton 19366.45 19473.2 20174.35 20293.85
Chilli 7600 7800 7500 6400
Jeera 18863.35 19661.5 20633.35 17875
Castor 4250 4277.9 4075.25 3976.15
PRICE TRACKER
Link for commodity-wise and market-
wise prices and arrivals:
http://agmarknet.gov.in/PriceAndArriv
als/CommodityWiseDailyReport2.aspx
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Date: 20-02-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
RABI SOWING PROGRESS- Link
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Date: 20-02-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Answers for 30th Jan 2018 Quiz:
Ans 1: FALSE Ans 2: C. (Sugar)
People who gave correct answer:
Kalyan Gudlavaleti Priya Rajkumar Singh Sengar
LEELARAM
Ashwani Kumar lalji singh yadav Vineet Poonia
Anilkumar Parvathaneni Mayank Mishra Nirbhay singh
Chandrapal Ghosh kapil singh bhakuni Ranjit Singh
SRINIVAS REDDY BOYAPALLI
Dr. Ravi Pratap Singh Sangwan
Ramdev
LAXMIKANT S H om singh SUAHIL SWAMI
Dr. Raina Jain Babloo Kumar Pawar santosh chandrakant
Rajesh Yadav sachin Sarjerao Gharge Soma Sudhakar
Harijanaseenaiah RITESH BALPANDE Sanjay Singh
Riteshkumar Sahu Abinandhan Ramamoorthy venkanna katikella
Shiv Singh Maheshkumar Ramaswamy PRASHANT KUMAR OJHA
Aaftab khan Lalji singh.yadav Gurmeet singh
Adarsh sharma Sunny kumar ROSHIN ABDULLA
Nandhini V Omkar Satpal
s.narendra Sandeep Kumar ANJALI
Neetu Gautam Naresh Sharma kulvinder singh
amit kumar singh Huzoor Ali Shaik Surender
ABHIMANYU SINGH yogesh sharma Patil Babasaheb sidhgonda
Vinaya Dilip Shinde Ashna Mishra Vikas Kumar
kapil dev chinna babu reddy serapu Madhav baburao satale
Lucky Winner: Leela Ram
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Date: 20-02-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Advisory Team
Basant Vaid Head: TCIG [email protected]
Sreedhar Nandam Vice President: SCM [email protected]
Research Team
Suresh Solanki Assistant Manager: TCIG [email protected]
Kamna Malhotra Economist: TCIG [email protected]
Akash Jaiswal Research Analyst: TCIG [email protected]
Ansh Aggarwal Senior Officer: Trade Support [email protected]
For any research queries, contact us at [email protected]
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