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May 19, 2020
RM seed/Maize/Chana/Turmeric
Commodity Market
Monitor
Weekly Online
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All India Weather Status
Last week all India Rainfall status: 30thApril 2020 to 06th May 2020.
Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Kerala, Maharashtra, Manipur, Sikkim, Tamil Nadu and Telangana states
received the deficit rainfall
Karnataka state received the excess rainfall
Mizoram state received the large deficit rainfall
Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Haryana, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Punjab, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh,
Uttarakhand and West Bengal states received the large excess rainfall
Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Meghalaya, Nagaland and Tripura states received the normal rainfall
No rainfall received in the Goa state
During the week, rainfall was above Long Period Average (LPA) by 17% over the country as a whole.
Seasonal all India Rainfall status: 1st March 2020 to 06th May 2020.
Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Goa, Manipur, Nagaland, Tamil Nadu and Tripura states received the deficit rainfall
Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka and Telangana states received the excess rainfall
Mizoram state received the large deficit rainfall
Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Punjab, Rajasthan, Uttar
Pradesh, Uttarakhand and West Bengal states received the large excess rainfall
Jammu & Kashmir, Kerala, Meghalaya and Sikkim states received the normal rainfall
For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during 1stMarch 2020 to 06th May 2020 was above Long Period Average
(LPA) by 25% over the country as a whole.
Weather Forecast:
Gradually rise in maximum Temperatures 2-3°C very likely over north and adjoining Central India during next 2 days.
Maximum Temperatures likely to remain between 41-44°C over some parts of Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, Telangana, Rayalaseema and North Interior
Karnataka during next 2 days and between 43-45°C over Gujarat state during next 24 hours and gradually fall thereafter.
Scattered to fairly widespread rain/ thundershowers likely over East and Northeast India and isolated to scattered rain/ thundershowers over Northwest, south
peninsula and Central India. Gradually rise in maximum Temperatures 2-3°C very likely over north and adjoining Central India during next 2 days.
Maximum Temperatures likely to remain between 41-44°C over some parts of Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, Telangana, Rayalaseema and North Interior
Karnataka during next 2 days and between 43-45°C over Gujarat state during next 24 hours and gradually fall thereafter.
Scattered to fairly widespread rain/ thundershowers likely over East and Northeast India and isolated to scattered rain/
thundershowers over Northwest, south peninsula and Central India.
All India Reservoir Status: as on 06th May 2020.
Central Water Commission is monitoring live storage status of 123 reservoirs of
the country on weekly basis and is issuing weekly bulletin on every Thursday.
The total live storage capacity of these 123 reservoirs is 171.090 BCM which is
about 66.36% of the live storage capacity of 257.812 BCM which is estimated to
have been created in the country. As per reservoir storage bulletin dated
06.05.2020, live storage available in these reservoirs is 68.036 BCM, which is
40% of total live storage capacity of these reservoirs. However, last year the live
storage available in these reservoirs for the corresponding period was 41.680
BCM and the average of last 10 years live storage was 41.328 BCM. Thus, the
live storage available in 123 reservoirs as per 06.05.2020 Bulletin is 163% of the
live storage of corresponding period of last year and 159% of storage of average
of last ten years.
Source: IMD, DAC&FW and CWC
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
% of Departure From Normal Reservoir Storage (06th May, 2020)
The domestic RM seed and Mustard oil counters traded range bound with positive bias
amid good Rabi harvest and localized edible oil demand forming the undercurrent.
Consecutive year of good crop prospects continue to weigh on the broad trade
sentiment across RM seed and Mustard oil counters.
Meanwhile, domestic Rabi crop anticipated at 75 Lakh tons; ample availability in the near
term shall continue to weigh on the broad trade sentiment at the immediate front.
With NAFED buying aggressively across major production tracks and millers too active in
the market against their seasonal buying requirement; the RM seed counters found much
needed support to gain some ground thereby keeping the RM seed counters on a
Commodity – RM Seed
Fundamental Summary
Benchmark Location Jaipur
Market Outlook Bullish
Market driving factors
Factor Impact
Good crop prospects Bearish
Localized demand for Mustard oil Bullish
Positive gross Crush margins Bullish
US jobs and Initial claims infused weakness in USD Bullish
Price Recap
RM Seed, Jaipur
(INR/quintal)
Last Closing Week Ago Month Ago Year Ago
4468 4450 4308 3984
Price Outlook (2-4 weeks)
Time frame 2-3 weeks 2 – 4 months
Price Direction Bullish Bearish
Price Range (INR/Qtl) 4350 – 4560 4100 - 4600
Fundamental Analysis and Insights
buoyant note.
Riding on such gains in the RM seed and firm Mustard seed cake prices (riding on good
off-take by cattle feed industry); positive gross crush margins continue to lend lateral
support for Mustard oil counters thereby keeping the broad trade sentiment on a
buoyant note.
Meanwhile, international Sun and Soy oil counters find export competitiveness in
depreciating source markets currencies; thus enhancing the value for imports of these
premium oils. Such scenario for cheaper imports shall continue to keep domestic mustard
oil on a cautious note moving forward.
However, with US jobs and initial jobless claims pointing to depreciation in greenback
(USD); the same might reduce the export competitiveness for Soy oil moving forward.
However, supply tightness in Sun oil against immediate delivery at the Black Sea origin
might keep Sun oil quotes on a firm note.
Such higher cost of ownership of premium vegetable oils moving forward might lend
lateral support for Mustard oil counters in the near term.
However, higher RBO production in North India stemming out from higher paddy milling
against CMR milling; mustard oil might find competition with RBO in the hydrogenated
fat industry thus enhanced pressure moving forward.
Summing up, look for domestic mustard oil counters to trade sideways with extension of the
current corrective tone tracking higher landed cost of imported vegetable oils in the coming 2-3
weks’ timeframe.
Mustard seed Prices closed on a steady note at INR 4468 at Jaipur Markets.
Prices continue to raise towards the 61.8%
Fibonacci retracement levels keeping the
positive momentum in force.
Any gains from here shall find stiff resistance
near the Fibonacci retracement levels of INR
4560.
How-ever INR 4350 Acts as the immediate support for the prices.
Technical Analysis
Prices are likely to trade between INR 4560 to 4350 in the coming 2 - 3 weeks.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
Location 5/18/2020 5/11/2020 % Change
Jaipur 4468 4450 0.4
kota 3985 3860 3.2
Hapur 4200 4220 -0.5
Maize prices during the previous week closed week amidst higher Rabi production on
one side while subdued demand on the other side.
AGCON estimates Rabi Maize production for the season 2019-20 at 98 lakh MT, higher by
23 lakh MT on a year on year basis. Major increments have come from Bihar, the key Rabi
Maize production state wherein the state is estimated to produce a record 37.5 lakh MT
as against 28.5 lakh MT witnessed during last year.
Poultry feed sector is the largest consumer of Maize and this year amidst threat of spread
of corona virus, Poultry meat consumption has taken severe hit from Feb’20 till date. On
Commodity – Maize
Fundamental Summary
Benchmark Location Gulabbagh
Market Outlook Range bound to slightly firm
Market driving factors
Factor Impact
Higher Rabi Maize Production Bearish
Subdued demand from poultry feed segment Bearish
Rationalization of Maize acreages in Telangana
during upcoming Kharif season Bullish
Poor arrivals in Bihar amidst delayed harvesting Bullish
Price Recap
Maize, Gulabbagh
(INR/quintal)
Last Closing Week Ago Month Ago Year Ago
1211.50 1192.00 1716.50 1830.00
Price Outlook (2-4 weeks)
Time frame 2-3 weeks 2 – 4 months
Price Direction Bullish Bearish
Price Range (INR/Qtl) 1150 – 1300 1050 - 1350
Fundamental Analysis and Insights
the other hand, Broiler chick placements are lacklustre during May’20 wherin average
weekly broiler placements are 3 to 3.5 crore birds compared to 5.5 to 6 crore birds during
the same period last year.
Poultry layer farmers have culled the population during Mar and Apr’20 amidst huge
losses faced by them on the back depressed prices and poor lifting owing to lockdown.
Despite recovery in prices, placements have not improved. Lower birds’ placements led
to subdued Maize demand at the domestic front.
In one of the radical decisions, Honourable Chief Minister of Telangana, Mr K. Chandra
Sekhar has requested for rationalisation of cropping patterns in the state where in the
CM has appealed farmers not to go for Maize crop in the upcoming Kharif season and
further announced that the state will not procure maize at MSP. Instead, the CM has
appealed to take up Red gram instead of Maize. Tracking such decision, Maize acreages
in Telangana are expected to be significantly lower compared to previous Kharif season
and may provide support to the prices.
Arrivals of Maize crop in Bihar are very poor as sowing is delayed by a month. Besides,
lower prices, extended lockdown and Ramzan festival are the other reasons for lower
arrivals.
Exports enquiries of maize have been floating in the market mainly for SE Asia
destinations. Despite higher landing costs, enquiries are strong owing to lower transit
time and the poor availability from Brazil and Argentina on the back of lockdown. Only
ready demand is coming to India and for future months, SE Asian nations are depending
on S.American nations.
Further, super cyclone Amphan is expected to bring some rains into Bihar later this week
and further delay harvesting operations.
Procurement of maize at MSP of Rs 1760 per quintal in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana
states is lending support to maize prices in the near term. On the other hand, prevailing
prices in the market are way below MSP and are trading in the range of Rs 1450 to 1550
per quintal in these states. As on 17h May 2020, Andhra Pradesh state has procured more
than 1.5 lakh MT of Maize at MSP while Telangana has procured 2 lakh MT of Maize.
Summing up lower demand poultry demand, lower arrivals, delayed harvesting, Govt
procurement at MSP are expected to drive Maize markets higher in the near term.
Maize prices settled at INR 1211.50 at Gulabbagh markets.
Prices closed on a positive
note after 7 consecutive
weeks of negative trend
after making a low of INR
1173.
How-ever any rise in
prices shall find
immediate resistance near
INR 1300 – 1325
The weekly RSI(14) setup is hovering in the oversold region, suggesting a brief pause
in prices, at the immediate front.
On the lower side the multi-year lows of INR 1060 – 1100 would act as a major
support.
Prices are likely to trade between INR 1100 – 1300 in the coming 2-3 weeks.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
Location 5/18/2020 5/11/2020 % Change
Gulabbagh 1239 1192 3.9
Chindwada 1050 1051 -0.1
Davanagere 1308 1320 -0.9
Technical Analysis
Indian Bengal gram prices traded range bound to slightly weak in last week amidst lower
demand from millers, higher arrivals in the domestic mandis and government decision to
supply free dal to 20 crore household. However, procurement activity by the government
and news of amendment in essential commodities act restricted the downfall of the
prices.
GOI has extended the lockdown period till 31st May and ordered to distribute free 1 kg
Bengal gram to about 20 crore household for three months. Distribution of free dal by
government put downward pressure to the prices.
Moreover, at the demand front, stockiest are side-lined as they are expecting more
correction in the prices. Millers demand is also stagnant as demand for besan form snack
Commodity – Chana
Fundamental Summary
Benchmark Location Delhi
Market Outlook Range Bound to Bearish
Market driving factors
Weak demand from snack industry Bearish
Higher arrivals in the mandis Bearish
Procurement activities by NAFED Bullish
Higher production estimate Bearish
Price recap (INR/Qtl)
Market centre Last Closing Week Ago Month Ago Year Ago
Chana Delhi (Rs/Qtl)
4213 4250 4300 4756
Price Outlook (2-4 weeks)
Time frame 2-3 weeks 2 – 4 months
Price Direction Sideways with weak undertone Bearish
Price Range (INR/Qtl) 4050 – 4200 3850 -4160
Fundamental Analysis and Insights
industry and road vendors are lower.
At the supply front, farmers are bringing good amount of Bengal gram in the mandis as
they want money for Kharif sowing. According to the Agmark , all India Chickpea arrivals
in the second week of May is reported at 70.03 thousand MT which is 6.38 percent higher
than 1st week of May arrivals of 65.83 thousand MT. Chickpea arrivals are expected to
increase in the coming days keeping the underlying price momentum weak.
All India Bengal gram procurement
reached at 5.10 lakh MT. Procurement
activity are lending support to the
chickpea prices which is trading below
MSP in the mandis. Domestic Bengal gram
prices are trading at INR 3800 – 4225 per
quintal against MSP of INR 4875 per
quintal. Govt of India has targeted to
procure 2 million MT of Chickpeas for the year, approximately 20% of the total production.
GOI has decided to amend the Essential Commodities Act in which stock limits on a
retailer or wholesaler will be obligatory only if the retail price increases abnormally- by
100 percent in case of perishable items like onion, potato and tomato and 50 per cent in
the case of non-perishable essential commodities. Stock limit can be imposed under very
exceptional circumstances like national calamities, famine, etc which lead to abnormal
surge in prices. Amendment in essential commodities act may create demand from
stockiest at lower levels.
Bengal Gram imports into India are not feasible at the current market prices which are
trading at a discount over International counterparts.
According to the third advance production estimate, all India Bengal gram production in
2019-20 is estimated at 10.90 million MT which 9.65 percent higher than 2018-19
production estimate of 9.94 million MT. However, market participants are expecting
production in the range of 10.3-10.7 million MT.
Summing up, domestic Chana prices are likely to trade range bound to slightly weak amidst
expectation of higher arrivals in the near term and subdued demand. However, we can expect
some buying at lower levels which may arrest aggressive fall in the market.
Chana Delhi prices traded on negative note and settled at INR 4097 levels lower by INR 27
than the preceding week.
A negative turnaround has been in
place during past weeks within INR
4100-4220 range and prices are poised
to resume the broader downtrend.
Current price action being considered
as sideways (order build up phase)
within INR 4070-4200 levels and
immediate price objective is seen
around INR 3990 area.
On the higher side, INR 4325-4265
levels (sellers breach area and recent
swing high respectively) likely to act as ceiling for prices.
On the lower side, INR 4070 levels likely to act as interim support while INR 3810-3860
levels likely to act at immediate price objective.
Concisely, prices are likely to drift lower towards INR 3980 with resistance in place at INR 4230
levels in forthcoming weeks.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
Location 5/18/2020 5/11/2020 % Change
Delhi 4213 4250 -0.9
Jaipur 4875 4875 0.0
Bikaner 4855 4870 -0.3
Technical Analysis
Price recap (INR/Qtl)
Market centre Last Closing Week Ago Month Ago Year Ago
Turmeric Nizamabad Futures
5280 5378 5438 7152
Price Outlook (2-4 weeks)
Time frame 2-3 weeks 2 – 4 months
Price Direction Sideways Sideways
5250 -5500 5200 - 5800
Turmeric in Nizamabad spot traded
lower in a tight range of INR 5210 to
INR 5230/qt during the week.
In Erode market prices declined by -4%
over the week and only about 48% of
arrival was bought by traders as
Commodity – Turmeric
Fundamental Summary
Benchmark Location Nizamabad
Market Outlook Bearish
Market driving factors
Factor Impact
Higher stocks available from last year crop Bearish
Lockdown due to Covid-19 impacting farmers sale Bearish
Lockdown due to Covid-19 impacting domestic demand and export demand
Bearish
Lower production due to lower area and losses in Maharashtra & Karnataka due to floods
Bullish
Lower quality of crop Bearish
Fundamental Analysis and Insights
demand is not picking up. The prices of finger variety traded at INR 5817/qt average price
vs INR 6027/qt average price last week.
The arrival outpaced buying by traders as the demand was not coming from upcountry
and buying was happening for local demand only, although going further as lockdown
conditions are being loosened we may expect comeback in demand.
NCDEX June futures contract declined to multi-year low of INR 5178/qt before recovering
and closing at 2% lower week over week basis at INR 5280/qt vs 5378/qt a week ago.
In Andhra Pradesh government has started procuring through Markfed and has
purchased 5000 qt till now after lockdown at State advised price of INR 6850/qt, but even
this procurement has not distorted the market due to lower demand.
The demand is lower for both export as well as from bulk buyers as Covid-19 lockdown
has led to demand destruction indirectly coming out from hotel and restaurant industry
and at the same time the requirement has been deferred from spice manufacturers due
to reduced finished product demand, lockdown and labour issues. We have already
reduced consumption by 10% over last year.
The Supply and demand balance sheet scenario is bearish although the production is
lower year over year, but opening stock was higher; over that the lower export demand
and reduced consumption is leading to more stock availability.
Summing up, while government is assuring farmers that their produce will be procured, but the
lower demand and higher stocks and deferred sale due to lockdown and lower quality is keeping
prices at low level and as demand is not expected to come back dramatically the prices will remain
under pressure although the bearish factors are already factored in so the prices are expected to
trade sideways.
Balance sheet of Turmeric
Parameter 2018-19 2019-20
Opening Stock 0.6 1.2
Production 5.8 5.2
Imports 0.3 0.1
Total supply 6.7 6.5
Exports 1.3 1.0
Domestic consumption 4.2 3.8
Total Demand 5.5 4.8
Ending stocks 1.2 1.7
Figures in lakh Mt
Turmeric Nizamabad Futures prices traded on negative note and settled at INR 5280
levels lower by INR 98 than the preceding week.
Prices are trending lower on the weekly chart with sellers’ breach in place around INR
5805 levels. However, the said breach has been
smaller than the earlier breach around INR 6700
levels during Sep’19 reflecting slowdown in sellers’
strength.
Also, pullback has been deep following the recent
breach and recent weekly candles exhibit choppier
movement down indicating further suggest fading
sellers’ momentum.
Bollinger bands portray medium volatility for upcoming weeks.
On the higher side, INR 6010-6085 levels act as major resistance area on the weekly chart.
On the lower side, prices are stalling around the multiyear support area- INR 5290-5420
levels and same is likely to hold the market.
Concisely, prices are likely to consolidate in the range of INR 5250-5550 ahead of pulling back
further higher in forthcoming weeks.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
Location 5/18/2020 5/11/2020 % Change
Nizamabad 5280 5378 -1.8
Erode 5314 5699 -6.8
Durrigala 5250 5250 0.0
Technical Analysis
Agriculture only sector in India that
can absorb coronavirus shock; but,
some reforms won’t hurt
Covid-19 won’t be able to
damage Indian agriculture:
Narendra S Tomar
Indian economy in corona
time: Agriculture only bright
spot
Feds announce $252 million
for agriculture
PM Modi discusses reforms in
agriculture sector
To purchase the India Commodity Year
Book 2020, contact us at
The Week That Was!
Commodity Latest Fortnight
ago Month
ago Year ago
19 May
2020 05 May
2020 19 April
2020 19 May
2019
turmeric 5280 5378 5438 7152
Chana 4213 4250 4300 4756
maize 1211.5 1192 1716.5 1830
RM seed 4468 4450 4308 3984
MINIMUM SUPPORT PRICE (Rs/Qtl.)
Commodity 2018-19 2019-20
KHARIF **NEW**
Paddy Common 1750 1815
paddy grade A 1770 1835
Jowar Hybrid 2430 2550
Jowar Maldandi 2450 2570
Bajra 1950 2000
Ragi 2897 3150
Maize 1700 1760
Tur/Arhar 5675 5800
Moong 6975 7050
Urad 5600 5700
Groundnut 4890 5090
Sunflower seed 5388 5650
Soybean Yellow 3399 3710
Sesame 6249 6485
Niger seed 5877 5940
Cotton (Medium Staple) 5150 5255
Cotton (Long Staple) 5450 5550
RABI**NEW**
Commodity 2018-19 2019-20
Wheat 1840 1925
Barley 1440 1525
Gram 4620 4875
Masoor (Lentil) 4475 4800
Rapeseed/Mustard 4200 4425
Safflower 4945 5215
*includes bonus of Rs 200 per quintal
# includes bonus of Rs 100 per quintal
PRICE TRACKER
Crop & PHMF Division Progress area coverage under Rabi crops as on 31.01.2020
Area : In lakh hectare
Sl.no Crop Normal Rabi Area (DES)
Normal of corresponding
week
Area sown Difference of 2019-20 over
2019-20
2018-19
Normal of corresponding
week
2018-19
1 Wheat 305.58 303.69 336.18 299.6 32.49 36.88
2 Rice 42.76 22.7 28.8 25.31 6.1 3.49
3 Pulses 146 151.1 161.17 151.78 10.06 9.39
a Gram 93.53 95.38 107 96.19 11.83 11.02
b Lentil 14.19 16.09 16.07 16.91 -0.02 -0.84
c Field pea 9.45 10.33 9.64 10.46 -0.69 -0.81
d Kulthi 2.04 4.59 5.15 5.43 0.57 -0.28
e Urad bean 8.61 8.4 7.63 7.53 -0.77 0.1
f Moong bean 10.1 6.51 6.19 6.1 -0.31 0.09
g Lathyrus 4.13 3.7 3.31 3.09 -0.4 0.02
h Other pulses 3.94 6.1 5.96 6.07 -0.14 -0.11
4 Coarse Cereals 60.78 55.06 55.69 47.77 0.63 7.92
a Jowar 35.75 31.64 30.22 25.03 -1.42 5.19
b Bajra 0.31 0.21 0.2 0.13 -0.1 0.07
c Ragi 0.46 0.55 0.47 0.62 -0.08 -0.16
d Maize 17.49 15.22 16.98 14.78 1.76 2.2
e Barley 6.77 7.44 7.82 7.2 0.38 0.62
5 Oilseed 78.85 81.36 80.29 80.36 -1.07 -0.07
a Rapeseed & mustard 60.48 67.73 69.51 69.76 1.78 -0.24
b Groundnuts 7.76 5.95 4.76 4.59 -1.2 0.17
c Safflower 1.41 0.85 0.63 0.43 -0.22 0.2
d Sunflower 2.96 2.14 1.04 1.13 -1.1 -0.09
e Sesamum 3.12 0.76 0.56 0.71 -0.21 -0.15
f Linseed 2.99 3.51 3.46 3.44 -0.06 0.02
g Other oilseed 0.14 0.42 0.34 0.3 -0.08 0.04
Total crops 633.98 613.91 662.13 604.52 48.21 57.61
Advisory Team
Nalin Rawal Head [email protected]
Sreedhar Nandam Vice President [email protected]
S. Anisul Hassan Head - Business Development [email protected]
Research Team
Sachin Wadhwa Head Research Soft Commodities [email protected]
Ankur Gupta Data Scientist [email protected]
Mukesh Upamanyu Agri Analyst [email protected]
Suresh Solanki Assistant Manager [email protected]
Akash Jaiswal Research Analyst [email protected]
Ratanpriya Assistant Manager [email protected]
Bhaskar M Quality Officer [email protected]
Shefali Jain Operation Executive [email protected]
Surbhi Taneja Operation Executive [email protected]
Rajiv Kumar Associate [email protected]
Disclaimer:
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addressee. Neither the report nor any part of the report shall be provided to third parties without the written consent of AGCON. Any
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from errors, omissions or misrepresentations made by others. Any recommendations, opinions and findings stated in this report are
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© NCML AGRI BUSINESS CONSULTANTS PRIVATE LIMITED (AGCON) 2019