Date: 05/02/2019 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

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NCoMM

NCML COMMODITY MARKET MONITOR

Cotton|Sugar|Soybean|RM Seed| Castor seed|Turmeric | Jeera

OUTLOOK

OTHER DATA Sowing progress| Advance estimates |Kharif and rabiMSP

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Castor | RM Seed | Turmeric

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NCML COMMODITY MARKET MONITOR NCoMM

Date: 05/02/2019 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamental Report

• Castor seed prices in most of the spot markets of Gujarat and

Rajasthan remained range bound with slight firmness as domestic

demand from Industries such as lubricants, cosmetics, paints etc.,

improved slight at lower levels. Expected decline in production during

current season also helped the commodity but, as exports remained

on the lower side Castor prices could not found sufficient support to

trade on higher side.

• According to Gujarat based traders new crop arrivals has started, but

the pace is slow due to lower crop however supply is likely to gain

pace in coming days which will keep prices on the lower side.

• India's castor oil exports dropped by 23.9 per cent year-on-year to

40,317 tonnes in December, according to data from the Solvent

Extractors' Association of India (SEA).Exports of the industry oil also

slipped by 14.6 per cent from 47,264 tonnes in November.

• Subdued import demand from Beijing weighed on the overall

shipments from India. China accounts for around 70 percent of non-

edible oil exports from India.

• During April-December, India shipped out 431,238 tonnes of castor oil,

down from 530,256 tonnes exported a year ago. In 2017-18 (April-

March) India's total exports were pegged at 651,326 tonnes as against

556,778 tonnes in the previous year.

• Exports in the coming months are also seen falling following tepid

buying from other major buyers in the global market. Apart from

China, Japan, European countries and United States are prominent

buyers of Indian castor oil.

• All India Castor seed acreage in 2018 increased to 9.18 lakh hectares up

by 5.05 per cent from last year acreage of 8.74 lakh hectares and 25

per cent down by normal area of 10.51 lakh hectares.

• India's castor seed production is expected to fall to 1.20-1.25 million

tonnes in 2018-19 (Jul-Jun) from 1.42 million tonnes produced in the

previous year, according to another official with the Solvent

Extractors' Association of India.The estimate is lower than the

government's projection of 1.52 million tonnes.

• According to the latest 2nd Advance estimates released by the Gujarat

Agriculture department Castor seed production in the state estimated

to decline by 30 per cent at 10.43 lakh tonnes as compared to 14.84

lakh tonnes in 2017-18 due to deficient rainfall received in major castor

growing belts during the 2018 monsoon.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

04-02-2019 28-01-2019 %Change

Deesa 5116 5092 0.47

Kadi 5215 5125 1.75

Dhansura 4920 4975 -1.10

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

New crop arrivals in spot markets of Gujarat and Rajasthan

Bearish

Improved demand from Lubricants, paints, etc. Industries

Bullish

Buying to improve at lower levels as crop production expected to decline

Bullish

India's castor oil exports dropped by 23.9 per cent year-on-year to 40,317 tonnes in December

Bearish

Market sources expecting further decline in demand from China, Japan, European countries and US

Bearish

Castor production in Gujarat to decline at 10.43 lakh tonnes as against 14.84 lakh tonnes

Bullish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

2800

3240

3680

4120

4560

5000

5440

5880

6320

6760

Se

p-1

6

Oct

-16

No

v-16

De

c-16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar

-17

Ap

r-17

May

-17

Jun

-17

Jul-1

7

Au

g-1

7

Se

p-1

7

Oct

-17

No

v-17

De

c-17

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-18

May

-18

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-1

8

Au

g-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Oct

-18

No

v-18

De

c-18

Jan

-19

Castor - Deesa

CASTOR

Date: 05/02/2019 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamental Report

• RM seed prices remained range-bound as weather concerns in key

producing belts supported the market while weakness in other edible

oil such as soybean and palm markets weighed on sentiments.

• As per market sources, chances of further strong hailstorms and more

spells of rains can lead to disastrous situation for the crop which is

ready to be harvested in next couple of weeks.

• Nafed as on 25thJanuary 2019 has liquidated around 1217 metric tonnes

of mustard seed at various centers of Haryana,Rajasthan, Gujarat and

Madhya Pradesh. It had procured a total of 8.78 lakh tonnes of

mustard seed and now has 2.18 lakh tonnes of balance stocks are

available.

• As per market sources, Madhya Pradesh government may procure 2.7

million tonnes of chana, masoor and mustard harvested in 2018-19

Rabi season for three months beginning March 2019 at minimum

support prices.National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing

Federation of India, Food Corporation of India and Small Farmers'

Agribusiness Consortium will procure crops from 11th March 2019.

• According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Rapeseed & Mustard acreage

during current Rabi season as on 01st February 2019 increased by 3.19

per cent at 69.12 lakh hectares as compared to 66.98 lakh hectares

same period last year.

• Significant increase of 18.63 per cent in acreage was reported from

Rajasthan at 24.77 lakh hectares as against 20.88 lakh hectares same

period last year. The normal acreage is 26.96 lakh hectares.

• The Ministry of Agriculture has targeted Mustard production for 2018-

19 at 84.86 lakh metric tonnes. Mustard production estimate for 2017-

18 is 83.22 lakh metric tonnes which is 5.11 per cent higher than the

2016-17 production estimates of 79.17 lakh metric tonnes.

• As per SEA oil-meal export report, India's rapeseed meal export has

increased 77 per cent from 4.62 lakh tonnes to 8.21 lakh tonnes during

April-December 2018 with South Korea, Vietnam and Thailand

accounting for major imports.

• The export of oil-meals during December 2018, provisionally reported

at 303115 tonnes compared to 391431 tonnes in December 2017. The

overall export during April to December 2018 is reported at 2,387,028

tonnes compared to 2,246,989 tonnes during the same period of last

year i.e. up by 6 per cent.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

04-02-2019 28-01-2019 % Change

Jaipur 4163 4184 -0.50

Alwar 4173 4198 -0.59

Varanasi 4165 4170 -0.11

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Weak domestic and global edible oils complex

Bearish

Weather concerns in key mustard growing belts

Bullish

Release of stocks by NAFED and other agencies in spot markets

Bearish

Higher acreage of Rapeseed & Mustard crop as compared to last year

Bearish

Trade sources expecting lower crop production during 2018-19

Bullish

Rapeseed meal export has increased by 77 per centfrom 4.62 lakh tonnes to 8.21 lakh tonnes currently

Bullish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

3,500

3,750

4,000

4,250

4,500

4,750

5,000

5,250

Se

p-1

6

Oct

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-16

De

c-16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar

-17

Ap

r-17

May

…

Jun

-17

Jul-1

7

Au

g-1

7

Se

p-1

7

Oct

-17

No

v-17

De

c-17

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-18

May

…

Jun

-18

Jul-1

8

Jul-1

8

Au

g-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Oct

-18

No

v-18

De

c-18

Jan

-19

Rapeseed & Mustard-Black - 42% oil content : Jaipur

RM SEED

Date: 05/02/2019 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamental Report

• Subdued demand in spot markets and the arrivals of new crops has

kept the Turmeric prices trend on lower side. Demand from North

India was reported sluggish due to prevailing cold wave conditions. As

far as export demand is concerned it has also remained subdued.

• According to trade sources, new crops arrived at spot markets were

reported with moisture content while quality is said to be average.

• New Turmeric supply started in the Nizamabad spot market on an

average 4000 – 5000 bags (1 bag = 70 Kg) from last week and higher

moisture content reported around 32 to 33 per cent. Currently, buyers

reported unresponsive due to moisture content turmeric new supply.

• Turmeric prices haveremained under pressure. Butin medium to long

term prices are likely to move on higher side due to crop damage

reports from key Turmeric producing regions of Maharashtra. In

Maharashtra deficit rainfall has affected Turmeric crop.

• As per market sources, Turmeric production for 2019 is estimated at

532,353 MT (basis dry crop) compared to previous year’s 476,771 MT.

Turmeric production may go down further as Maharashtra standing

crop is atvery crucial stage.

• Turmeric acreage in Andhra Pradesh is reported at 18,737 hectares as

compared to 14,841 hectares last year, more than 100 per cent sowing

completed from season normal.

• In Telangana, final Turmeric sowing reported at 47,888 hectares as

compared to 44,956 hectares in the corresponding period last year.

Current sowing stands at 87 per cent of normal for the season. Normal

area reported 54,878 hectares.

• As per the Ministry of Agriculture, All India Turmeric production in

2018-19 estimated at 11.49 lakh tonnes as against 11.33 lakh tonnes

estimated in 2017-18.

• According to Spice Board of India, Turmeric exports during 2017-18

stood at 1.07 lakh tonnes as compared to 1.16 lakh tonnes in 2016-17.

Turmeric exports to Iran stood at 13,431 tonnes, U.A.E was 7,952

tonnes, Malaysia 6,562 tonnes, U.S.A 6,434 tonnes, Morocco with

6,220 tonnes and other countries 66,701 tonnes.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

04-02-2019 28-01-2019 % Change

Nizamabad 6696 6735 -0.57

Salem 6960 7095 -1.90

Namakkal 6950 6950 0.00

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Subdued demand in most of the spot markets in South India

Bearish

New crop arrivals have started in most of the markets

Bearish

Higher Turmeric crop acreage during current season as compared to last year

Bearish

Trade sources estimating lower crop production on all India level

Bullish

Decline in Turmeric exports as against last year

Bearish

Buying at lower levels to improve expecting lower crop production in Maharashtra

Bullish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

4800

5500

6200

6900

7600

8300

9000

9700

Jun

-16

Jul-1

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ug

-16

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ct-1

6N

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7M

ar-1

7A

pr-

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ay-1

7Ju

n-1

7Ju

l-17

Au

g-1

7S

ep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-17

De

c-17

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-18

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-1

8A

ug

-18

Se

p-1

8O

ct-1

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9

Turmeric : Unpolished fingers : Nizamabad

TURMERIC

Date: 05/02/2019 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

• Agri Ministry budget hiked by

nearly 64pc to Rs 129585-cr for

2019-20

• Dairy industry hails Budget 2019,

says measures would increase

farmers' income

• Punjab offers freight subsidy to

potato growers • India’s share in global GDP rose

to 3.3 per cent in 2017: President

Ram Nath Kovind

• Collaborating to innovate for

India’s agriculture research: ICAR

– ICRISAT finalize 5-year action

plan

• Horticulture production to hit

record 315 MT this year

• Government offers 90% subsidy

for community farming

To purchase the India Commodity

Year Book 2019, contact us at

research@ncml.com

Official Production Estimates

First advance estimates 2018-19&

previous years’ estimates: Fourth

Advance Estimates 2017-18

MINIMUM SUPPORT PRICE (Rs/Qtl.)

Commodity 2017-18 2018-19

KHARIF **NEW**

Paddy Common 1550 1750

paddy grade A 1590 1770

Jowar Hybrid 1700 2430

Jowar Maldandi 1725 2450

Bajra 1425 1950

Ragi 1900 2897

Maize 1425 1700

Tur/Arhar 5450 5675

Moong 5575 6975

Urad 5400 5600

Groundnut 4450 4890

Sunflower seed 4100 5388

Soyabean black 3050 3399

Sesamum 5300 6249

Nigerseed 4050 5877

Cotton (Medium Staple) 4020 5150

Cotton (Long Staple) 4320 5450

RABI

Commodity 2017-18 2018-19

Wheat 1735 1840

Barley 1410 1440

Gram 4400 4620

Masur (Lentil) 4250 4475

Rapeseed/Mustard 4000 4200

Safflower 4100 4945

*includes bonus of Rs 200 per quintal

# includes bonus of Rs 100 per quintal

Commodity Latest Fortnight ago Month ago Year ago

04-Feb-19 21-Jan-19 05-Jan-19 05-Feb-18

Soybean 3875 3858 3491 3607

RM seed 4163 4138 4107 4025

Turmeric 6696 6836 7004 7375

Cotton 11974 12092 12176 11318

Chilli 8500 9000 9000 9000

Jeera 16969 18285 18391 19661

Castor 5116 5200 5219 4277

PRICE TRACKER

Link for commodity-wise and

market-wise prices and arrivals:

http://agmarknet.gov.in/PriceAndArriv

als/CommodityWiseDailyReport2.aspx

THE WEEK THAT WAS

Date: 05/02/2019 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Date: 05/02/2019 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

All India Weather status

Last week all India Rainfall status: 24th Jan 2019 to 30th Jan 2019

• Arunachal Pradesh And Assam States received deficit rainfall

• Bihar, Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Meghalaya states received the excess rainfall.

• Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Haryana, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh'

Jammu & Kashmir, Kerala states received the large deficit rainfall

• Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka states received the

large excess rainfall

• Sikkim, Uttar Pradesh and Odisha states received the normal rainfall

• No rainfall is observed in the states of Tripura, Gujarat and Goa

During the week, rainfall was above Long Period Average (LPA) by 3 % over the country as a whole .

Seasonal all India Rainfall status: 1st Jan 2019 to 04th Feb 2019.

• Nagaland, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Maharashtra and Karnataka states received the deficit rainfall

• Uttarakhand, Jammu & Kashmir And Chhattisgarh states received the excess rainfall

• Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, Sikkim, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar,

Chandigarh (Ut), Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Kerala states received large deficit rainfall.

• Andhra Pradesh and Telangana states received the large excess rainfall

• Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat states received the normal rainfall

• No rainfall is observed in the states of Tripura and Goa states.

For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during 01 January to 4th February 2019 was above LPA by 8%

over the country as a whole.

Weather Forecast:

• Above normal precipitation likely over the western Himalayan region, normal to above normal over the northern plains and some parts of

northeast India and southern parts of peninsular India. Normal rainfall likely over the rest of India

• Minimum temperatures in general are likely to be below normal over Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and interior Maharashtra and

near normal over northern plains. They are likely to continue to be above normal over western Himalayan region and southern parts of

peninsular India

All India Reservoir Status: as on 31th January 2019

Central Water Commission monitors 91 major reservoirs in the

country which have total live capacity of 161.99 Billion Cubic

Meter (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL). Out of these, 76

reservoirs with FRL capacity of 120.44 BCM have irrigation

potential. Live storage in the 91 major reservoirs as on 31st

January, 2019 has been 72.07 BCM as against 70.36 BCM on

31.01.2018 (last year) and 76.08 BCM of normal (average of the

last 10 years) storage. Current year’s storage is 102% of last

year’s storage and nearly 95% of average of last 10 year’s

storage.

Source: IMD, DAC&FW and CWC

Date: 05/02/2019 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Impact of weather on major crops

Crop Normal Acreage

Acreage 2018-19

Current crop condition

Wheat 306.29 299.34

Major wheat growing states are Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Rajasthan. Sowing is done in entire state .Crop is in tilering to heading stage. Wheat crop is struggling in partial irrigated area while it is in normal condition in rest of India. Overall crop condition is normal.

Rapeseed & Mustard

61.25 69.12

Major rapeseed growing states are Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, and Madhya Pradesh. Crop sowing is completed and is currently in flowering to grain filling/ maturity stage. Incidence of disease and insect has not been observed in field till date. Further, moisture in the soil is decreasing continuously in Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Rajasthan. Overall crop condition is normal.

Chickpea 89.45 96.35

Major gram sowing state is Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. Gram sowing is completed, and crop is currently in pod formation stage .Incidence of disease and insect has been observed in some regions like Maharashtra (affected by damping off), Madhya Pradesh & Rajasthan (affected by frost). Crop is currently struggling in rain-fed area because of very limited rainfall in the region till second week of January; however, rainfall received in third week of January may be very beneficial for crop health & yield. Overall crop condition is below-normal to normal.

Lentil 13.94 17.19

Major lentil crop sowing state is Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh (Buldelkhand region). Crop sowing is completed, and crop is currently in flowering stage. Incidence of disease and insect has not been observed in field till date. Crop acreage is almost same in comparison to last year. Crop is currently struggling in some parts of rain-fed area because of very limited rainfall till second week of January; however, rainfall received in third week of January may be very beneficial for crop health & yield. Overall current crop condition is normal.

*Rainfall received in third week of January and onwards may be very beneficial for crop health &

yield.

Acreage in lacs Hectares on date 01st February’ 2019

Source: Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers Welfare

Date: 05/02/2019 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

yy

link ANSWERS & LUCKY

WINNER OF PREVIOUS

WEEK’S QUIZ

NCoMMQUIZ PREVIOUS WEEK’S ANSWERS

THESE PEOPLE ANSWERED CORRECTLY!

1. As per the report on which commodity the Government has extended restrictions on its

import till March 2019? Peas

2. By how much the all India progressive procurement of Rice has increased during 2018-19?

15 per cent

2.23 lakh tonnes

3. According to the Gujarat government second revised estimates 2018-19 how much is Jeera production estimated?

S.No Full Name Department Location

1 Sarita Mittal SCM Gurgaon

2 Rakesh Kumar S&P Patna

3 Pawan Joshi Mktyard Karnal, Haryana

4 Ankur Srivastava Mktyard Gurgaon

5 Kuldip Singh Silo Projects Gurgaon

6 Ajendra Singh Chauhan Mktyard Gurgaon

7 Akshay Vivek Mktyard Gurgaon

8 Pratima Goswami Mktyard Gurgaon

9 Rajaram Bhilare S&P Mumbai

10 Twinkle Gupta S&P Gurgaon

11 Somarouthu Narendra CWIG Hyderabad

12 PRiti Gharat SCM Mumbai

13 Om Singh CM Bikaner

14 Nagina Gowda S&P Mumbai

15 yogesh sanwarmal sharma IT Kanjurmarg (Mumbai)

16 Vivekanand Gurjar T&C Jaipur

17 munesh kumar sharma S&P Gurgaon

18 ANJALI CM GURUGRAM

19 Lalji singh yadav CM Saman

20 Praveen Kumar Mundra S&P Ellenabad

21 vanisha vij HR&Admin Delhi

LUCKY WINNER!

Vivekanand Gurjar T&C Jaipur

CONGRATULATIONS!

Date: 05/02/2019 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Advisory Team

Nalin Rawal Head: CWIG Nalin.r@ncml.com

Sreedhar Nandam Vice President: SCM sreedhar.n@ncml.com

Research Team

Suresh Solanki Assistant Manager: TCIG suresh.s@ncml.com

Rajiv Kumar Associate: TCIG rajiv.ku@ncml.com

Akash Jaiswal Research Analyst: TCIG akash.j@ncml.com

Nahalaxmi. J Client Service Executive: TCIG nahalaxmi.j@gmail.com

Shefali Jain Operation Executive: TCIG shefali.j@ncml.com

Ratnapriya Assistant Manager: TCIG ratnapriya.a@ncml.com

Ansh Aggarwal Senior Officer: Trade Support ansh.a@ncml.com

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© National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCML) 2019