Date: 31-07-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

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31st July 2017

NCoMM

NCML COMMODITY MARKET MONITOR

ANSWERS & WINNERS OF PREVIOUS WEEK’S QUIZ

Wheat | Paddy | Chana | Tur | Guarseed | Pepper

OUTLOOK

OTHER DATA Sowing progress | Monsoon Situation | Advance estimates | Kharif MSP

WEEKLY QUIZ QUESTIONS 1. Stocks of which of the commodities, covered in this report, are maintained by the

government for enhancing availability when required ? 2. Name the commodity which gets support from firmness in crude oil and the commodity

whose exports increased by 132 per cent over last year.

Participate in our weekly quiz based on this report. Email precise answers at research@ncml.com. Winners will be announced in next report and rewarded.

Date: 31-07-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Price Trend & Technicals

1500

1700

1900

2100

2300

2500

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Ap

r-16

May

-16

Jul-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Oct

-16

De

c-16

Jan

-17

Mar

-17

Ap

r-17

Jun

-17

Jul-1

7

Wheat: Standard mill quality : Delhi

Sufficient availability of the grains in the domestic market as a result

of higher production and regular imports have kept the market

movement lethargic. The chances of any sharp spike in the prices in

the near term are minimal. Nearby resistance band is seen at Rs

1775-1800. The prices have recently moved up but the momentum

doesn’t look to be strong enough to breach Rs 1775. Wheat prices

will expectedly trade around the current levels only in the coming

weeks and can then slip towards Rs 1735. Major support is seen

around Rs 1720 and the prices are expected to trade above that

level with sideways bias in the near term.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

1720 1735 1768.6 1775 1825

Outlook: Prices will trade with sideways to downward bias and move closer to Rs 1735.

• India is estimated to have produced 97.44 mn tonnes of wheat in 2017 as compared

to 92.3 mn tonnes in 2015-16. However, the record harvest has not yet translated

into spectacular increase in open market availability of wheat since government

procured heavily to recoup its depleted stocks.

• Government procured 308.24 lakh tonnes in 2017-18 against 230 lakh tonnes last

year, taking the central wheat stocks to 322.75 lakh tonnes in July 2017 against

301.81 lakh tonnes in July 2016 & the buffer norm of 245.80 lakh tonnes.

• India is expected to import 3.5-4 mn tonnes of wheat in 2017-18 despite a bumper

crop due to cheaper availability of it globally. India’s wheat imports escalated to 6.3

mn tonnes in 2016-17 while exports trailed to 0.4 mn tonnes.

Mandi Price in Rs/Quintal

28-07-2017 21-07-2017 %change

Delhi 1768 1767.5 0.03

Kota 1687.1 1700.3 -0.78

Kanpur 1680 1648.75 1.90

• About 3 lakh tonnes of imports have already been contracted with Ukrainian suppliers and the existing stocks of wheat at the ports is getting

liquidated. The landed cost of imported wheat is about Rs 18/kg, while the domestic wheat price is Rs 20/kg. The Black Sea harvest is due in

August and Indian buyers will take fresh positons since Indian local prices start moving up from November.

• The import of superior quality of wheat that comes from Australia however may not be much this year as the price is high owing to lower

production in Australia. The latest IGC report (27 July 2017) pegs Australia’s wheat production at 22.8 mn tonnes in 2017-18 against 35.1 mn tonnes

in previous year. Thus, Australia is priced out of Indian market at $275-280cif.

• Increased offtake by flour mills is further supporting prices. As supplies from producing regions meet the demand, FCI too commenced Open

Market Sale Scheme (OMSS) for bulk buyers like food companies and flour millers in non-procuring states in June and in key procuring states.

• However the Open Market Sale Scheme (OMSS) price of Rs 1,790 per quintal plus freight also incentivises imports in preference to local deliveries

from Food Corporation of India for southern mills.

• Internationally, hot and dry weather during the growing season slashed yield prospects for U.S. hard red spring wheat to the lowest in nearly a

decade. The latest IGC report has estimated 2017-18 world’s wheat production at 731.9 mn tonnes against 754.2 mn tonnes last year. The decline

was driven by the United States & Australia.

• An overall fundamental score of 2.9 shows consolidation to mild bearishness in wheat prices.

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)*

Bumper wheat harvest in 2017 Bearish 30% 2

Imports of 3.5-4 mn tonnes expected despite record harvest Bearish 15% 2

High domestic demand, particularly by flour mills Bullish 25% 4

Availability in open market not showing marked improvement due to heavy procurement

Bullish 20% 4

Adequate food stocks in central pool and commencement of OMSS operations

Bearish 10% 2

Overall fundamental score 2.9

* 1. Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5.Bullish

Fundamentals- Domestic & International WHEAT

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Date: 31-07-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamentals- Domestic & International PADDY

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)*

Well progressed sowing for kharif 2017-18 & good output expected Bearish 20% 2

High demand in spot markets amidst no fresh supplies Bullish 30% 4

Sluggish export demand due to rupee appreciation and diparity Bearish 15% 2

Record high rice production in 2016-17 Bearish 15% 2

Reduction of MRL for tricyclazole by EU on India’s exports wef 1 Jan 2018 Bearish 10% 2

Heavy showers in West Bengal and Assam affecting sowing Bullish 10% 4

Overall fundamental score 2.8

*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5.Bullish

• Government has fixed the rice procurement target at 37.5 mn tonnes for the

2017-18 marketing season on hopes of good production. Rice procurement

touched 34.35 mn tonnes in the ongoing 2016-17 marketing season (Oct-Sep),

exceeding the target of 33 mn tonnes set for this year.

• Rice sowing is well progressed at 216.23 lakh ha as on 28 July 2017, 2.38% higher

than 211.20 lakh ha sown last year till same date but 3.9% lower than normal till

date. In some areas of West Bengal heavy showers have washed away paddy

seeds which may adversely affect the Amon season crop- the second crop of the

Kharif season of West Bengal by 10-15%.

Mandi Paddy 1121: Price in Rs/ Quintal

28-07-2017 21-07-2017 %change

Hanumangarh (1121 Pusa)

2800 2900 -3.45

Narela Delhi 2525 2461 2.60

Aligarh 2280 2320 -1.72

• India is in talks with the European Union voicing the concerns of Indian rice exporters as the EU, India’s major rice importer, recently revised the

maximum residue limit (MRL) for tricyclazole, a fungicide used in India, to the level of 0.01 ppm (parts per million) from 1ppm. The decision is as

good as ban on India’s exports to EU from 1 Jan 2018 and result in will impact the rice exports from India worth more than Rs.1,700 crore.

• India’s export demand is sluggish due to export disparity on appreciating rupee and its 5% broken parboiled have eased by $5 per tonne to $400

to $403. The demand from African buyers did not pick up and Bangladesh, which emerged as a major rice importer this year due to flash floods in

the country, did not strike a deal with India due high Indian prices.

• As per data from APEDA, India exported around 40,00,471 MT of Basmati rice worth $3.15 billion in the last fiscal of 2016-17, against 4045796.25

MT in 2015-16. Till April 2017, 389201.10 MT basmati has been exported. The non-basmati exports suffered a major setback in 2015-16 falling by 23%

and could not recover significantly from those levels in 2016-17.

• India’s paddy 2016-17 production is estimated at a record high of 109.15 mn tonnes, up 4.5% from last year’s 104.41 mn tonnes. Buying by stockists

and higher demand in spot markets is keeping the prices underpinned.

• According to the latest IGC report, World rice stocks are projected to tighten in 2017/18 on a contraction of stocks of major exporters, led by

Thailand whose stocks are projected to be down by almost 30%, to a nine-year low. Tied to area growth in Asia, notably in Thailand and India,

2017/18 output could edge up to 486 mn tonnes from 484 mn tonnes in 2016-17.

• Overall fundamental score of 2.8 shows consolidation in prices paddy prices.

Record production last year and higher sowing as compared to last

year is keeping the sentiments dampened. Appreciation in Indian

rupee and sluggish export demand is also weighing on the prices. We

hold our view that the prices in the ongoing negative momentum can

initially drop towards Rs 2725 which can act as a near term floor. A

crack of that level will lead to the further declines towards Rs 2670.

Chances of any immediate recovery from here on are bleak however

the chances of prices recovery will emerge on a break of Rs 3000.

Price Trend & Technicals

1600.00

2000.00

2400.00

2800.00

3200.00

3600.00

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

May

-16

Jun

-16

Au

g-1

6

Se

p-1

6

No

v-16

De

c-16

Feb

-17

Mar

-17

May

-17

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

7

Paddy - 1121 pusa : Hanumangarh

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

2800 2880 3050 3200 3280

Outlook: Prices may move in the range of Rs 2900 to Rs 3200.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

2650 2725 2800 2900 3000

Outlook: Prices can slip in the coming weeks and can move closer to Rs2725.

BACK TO TOP

Date: 31-07-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamentals- Domestic & International

Price Trend & Technicals

4500

5500

6500

7500

8500

9500

10500

11500

12500

Au

g-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Oct

-16

De

c-16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Ap

r-17

May

-17

Jun

-17

Jul-1

7

Chana -Rajasthani desi : Delhi

CHANA

Higher crop estimation in India and availability of the sufficient

stock in the market is not letting prices show any positive

movement. Moreover regular imports from Australia is putting

pressure on the prices. Chana in its last week’s movement has

broken the lower band of the ongoing trading band and is expected

to slip further down in the weeks to come. We expect prices to slip

further towards Rs 4800-4750 in the near future. Strong resistance

band is seen around Rs 5250-5425 which is unlikely to be breached

anytime soon.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

4750 4800 4914.7 5220 5420

Outlook: Prices will slip further towards the support band of Rs 4800-4850.

• As of 28th July, Australian chana is being traded at Rs 4850 per quintal in

Mumbai market and Rs 4900 per quintal at Mundra port. Australian

chickpea of October- November delivery is being offered at Rs 4750 per

quintal at Mumbai port. Australian new chana crop is expected to come

in October-November month putting downward pressure on the prices.

• Till 25th July, Nafed had procured around 56.19 thousand tonnes of

chana from farmers of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh

for buffer stock. Buffer stock of chana with government will continue

to put pressure on the spot market.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

28-07-2017 21-07-2017 %change

Delhi 4925 5350 -7.94

Jaipur 4900 5250 -6.67

Bikaner 4500 4600 -2.17

• Higher stocks and lower demand from millers continued to put downward pressure on the spot market. Millers are only doing need based

buying as market demand is low.Buying from wholesaler and retailers counters were slow as demand for Chana dal has shifted to other dals

due to cheaper prices.

• Higher imports and stocks lying at ports remains unsupportive to the cash market. Moreover, regular imports from Australia are keeping the

prices down.

• Present weather condition in Australia is decisive for the chana crop. If weather stays dry, then prices may stay steady, but if the crop gets

sufficient rain then there is probability of downside price movement.

• According to the Abares, Australia chickpea production estimate has been reduced by 24 percent to 1.416 million tonnes from 1.854 million

tonnes last year. Lower production estimate is due to unfavourable weather condition which might affect the yield. Lower Australian lower

chana production estimate may have a slightly bullish impact on the prices.

• India’s chana production estimate has been decreased by 0.43 percent to 9.08 MMT in third advance estimates as against second advance

estimate of 9.12 MMT for 2016-17. However, trade sources are estimating 8.3-8.5 MMT of chana this year. Last year chana production estimate

was 7.06 MMT. Higher production estimate compared to last year may have slightly bearish impact on the prices.

• Overall score of 2.55 indicates range bound with bearish movement in the coming days.

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)*

Chana buffer stock with government Consolidation 25% 3

Lower demand from millers Bearish 15% 2

Regular imports from Australia Bearish 10% 2

Weather condition in Australia Consolidation 30% 3

Higher domestic production estimate Bearish 20% 2

Overall fundamental score 2.55

*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5.Bullish

BACK TO TOP

Date: 31-07-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Price Trend &Technicals

Tur prices are trading sluggishly for quite some time now on the

back of higher estimates of production this year. Lack of any firm

positive cue from the fundamental front is keeping away prices

from showing any positivity whatsoever. The undertone will be

bearish for the coming few weeks with prices slipping even more

but may be with lighter intensity as the sowing activity has shown

some decline from the last year. Rs 3380 is the immediate support

which the prices can test. On the upside Rs 3660 strong resistance

which is unlikely to be breached soon.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

3525 3700 3450 3525 3660

Outlook: Prices will continue to trade with sideways to bearish tone and move towards Rs 3380 & then Rs 3300.

• As of 28th July 2017, all India Kharif tur sowing is reported at 34.88

lakh hectares which is around 16.71 percent lower than the same time

last year of 41.28 lakh hectares. Sowing coverage has decreased as

farmers have not received good realization in tur last year. Lower

area coverage may have bullish impact on the prices.

• Tur buffer with government might not let prices to move upward.

Stockiest are side-lined wondering how and when tur stock with

government will be disposed.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

28-07-2017 21-07-2017 %change

Mumbai 3061.2 3325 -7.93

Kanpur 3810 3950 -3.54

Akola 3450 3662.5 -5.80

• According to the trade sources, Burma Lemon Tur FAQ is trading in the range of Rs 3075-3100 per quintal at Mumbai port as on 29th July. Regular

and lower import quotes than MSP has a bearish impact on the domestic prices.

• According to the trade source, farmers are still holding 10-15 per cent of their stocks in expectation of getting higher price in future. Holding of

stock by farmers may have slightly bullish impact on the prices.

• Government has increased the MSP of tur from Rs 5050 per quintal in 2016-17 to Rs 5450 (include bonus of Rs 200 per quintal) per quintal for

2017-18.

• At present import duty on tur is 10 per cent. However, market participants are demanding higher import duty on tur.

• India tur production estimate has slightly increased by 8.74 percent to 4.60 MMT in third advance estimate as against second advance estimate

of 4.23 MMT for 2016-17. Last year tur production estimate was 2.56 MMT. Higher production estimate as compare to last year may have a bearish

impact on the prices.

• Overall score of 2.85 shows range bound with slightly bearish movement.

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)*

Lower sowing kharif acreage Bullish 20% 4

Higher buffer stock Bearish 30% 2

Steady imports Consolidation 15% 3

Holding of stocks with farmers Bullish 15% 4

Higher production estimate Bearish 20% 2

Overall fundamental score 2.85

*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5.Bullish

Fundamentals- Domestic & International TUR

3100

4700

6300

7900

9500

11100

12700

14300

Jul-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-15

Feb

-16

Ap

r-16

Jul-1

6

Se

p-1

6

De

c-16

Feb

-17

May

-17

Jul-1

7

Tur: Desi: Akola

BACK TO TOP

Date: 31-07-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Prices after sharp declines, which pulled down prices from

Rs4050 in April to Rs 3200 in July, found a base around the strong

support mark of Rs 3200. Some bargain hunting at the lower level

was witnessed infusing some positivity in the Bikaner prices. With

lingering crop damage concerns on account of recent heavy rains

in Rajasthan & Gujarat ongoing recovery in prices may extend

itself towards Rs 3520 - 3600 in the near future. Rs 3300-3200 is

the immediate strong support band which will not let any

declining streak surpass this mark.

2,800

3,000

3,200

3,400

3,600

3,800

4,000

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

May

-16

Jun

-16

Au

g-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Oct

-16

De

c-16

Jan

-17

Mar

-17

Ap

r-17

Jun

-17

Jul-1

7

Guarseed-Average : Bikaner

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

3200 3300 3460 3520 3600

Outlook: Price will conitue to recover and a move beyond Rs 3520 will push it even higher towards Rs 3600.

• Guar seed futures and spot market remained positive as demand

improved at lower levels. Markets are expected to recover on crop

damage concerns with floods being reported from many areas in

Rajasthan and Gujarat. Firmness in Crude oil prices also supported market

sentiments as exports likely to remain good and picked up further at lower

levels.

• According to Bikaner traders, good rise in futures prompted sellers

(stockists) to raise their selling price, however volume of business in the

spot market was not very strong due to forecast of rainfall. Most buyers

have opted to wait and watch as good rainfall in producing regions may

attract selling pressure at the higher level.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

28-07-2017 21-07-2017 %change

Bikaner (Rajasthan)

3462 3375 2.57

Jodhpur (Rajasthan)

3498 3417 2.37

Bhuj (Gujarat) 3230 3174 1.76

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)*

Improved demand at lower levels Bullish 20% 4

Crop damage concerns Bullish 30% 4

Firmness in Crude oil prices Bullish 10% 3

Higher export numbers compared to last year Bullish 20% 2

Higher acreage during current season Bearish 20% 2

Overall fundamental score 3.1

*1. Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish

Fundamentals- Domestic & International

Price Trend &Technicals

GUAR SEED

• According to recent sowing data released by Rajasthan agriculture department, Guar seed has been sown in 19.14 lakh hectares as on July 20,

sharply up from 13.39 lakh hectares same period a year ago. Similarly, Guar seed acreage in Gujarat increased to 1.45 lakh hectares as on 24th July

as compared to 0.54 lakh hectares corresponding period last year.

• According to Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA), Guar gum exports 2017-18 (April-May) from India

had increased to 1.07 lakh tonnes as compared to 46 thousand in 2016-17 (April-May). According to traders, Guar gum exports are good from

overseas market and expected to remain on the higher side.

• As per the Department of Agriculture Rajasthan Guar seed production in 2016-17 was estimated at 14.25 lakh tonnes as against 22.23 lakh tonnes

in 2015-16. The fall in production was mainly due to lower area cropped as farmers opted for pulses and oilseed.

• Guar seed stock at NCDEX warehouses as on 27th July declined significantly at 14,175 tonnes as against 23,847 tonnes same period last year.

• Overall fundamental score of 3.1 indicates that Guar seed prices will be consolidating with slightly bullish tone.

BACK TO TOP

Date: 31-07-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamentals- Domestic & International

PEPPER

Price Trend & Technicals

45000

50000

55000

60000

65000

70000

75000

80000

Jan

-15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-1

5

Oct

-15

De

c-15

Feb

-16

May

-16

Jul-1

6

Se

p-1

6

De

c-16

Feb

-17

Ap

r-17

Jun

-17

Pepper-Malabar Garbled : CochinPepper prices at Kochi are strongly in the grip of bears. Prices are

continuously declining backed by strong and steady imports from

Vietnam and partly amid higher global production. The current

downside momentum looks strong and won’t likely stop around

current levels. More selling is expected dragging down price closer

to next support levels of Rs 47300 and Rs 43700. Any pullback from

here will be short lived and temporary and the bears are expected

to continue to dominate the proceedings in the near term.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

43770 47340 49294 50475 52690

Outlook: Will slip further towards the support of Rs 47300 and then Rs 43700.

• The pepper prices nosedived in 2017 and are ruling very low because of the

flooding of Indian markets with pepper imports.

• Indian normally imports around 7,500 tonnes pepper per annum. This year,

the total imports might cross 12,000 tonnes, following the arrival of Vietnam

pepper into India via Sri Lanka under the free trade agreement.

• Under an ASEAN agreement, a duty of 54 per cent is levied on pepper

imported from Vietnam. However, under SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade

Area), pepper from Sri Lanka attracts a duty of just 8 per cent, making the

traders route bulks of Vietnamese pepper through Sri Lanka.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

28-07-2017 21-07-2017 %change

Kochi 49419.25 50150 -1.46

Mudigere 42752 43964 -2.76

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)*

Flooding in of Vietnam pepper imports into India via Sri Lanka under SAFTA

Bearish 40% 2

Domestic demand on a rise due to changing diet Bullish 25% 4

Higher 2016-17 domestic production over last year Bearish 15% 2

Low carryover stocks Bullish 5% 4

Higher global viability and production, particularly in Vietnam Bearish 10% 2

Demand of floor price by pepper consortium Bullish 5% 4

Overall fundamental score 2.7

*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish

• In January-May 2017, Vietnamese statistics showed that they had shipped out 2,016 tonnes of pepper to Sri Lanka which seems to be routed to

India through Sri Lanka since Sri Lanka does not import pepper for local consumption.

• The pepper output in Vietnam in 2016-17 is estimated to be around 2,15,000 MT, significantly higher than the average of 1,50,000 MT expected.

However, Vietnamese pepper is reported to have higher pesticide residue in it. (FSSAI) has instructed various nodal agencies and its offices across

the country to check the import of pepper into the country.

• Consortium of growers & traders from key producing States of Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and AP have threatened to abandon cultivation of

pepper and demanded that the Centre impose a floor price for pepper imports at $8,000 per tonne to curb cheaper inflow of the spice.

• On 24 July 2017, pepper contracts were relaunched on MCX and NCDEX. NCDEX said the re-launched pepper contract, which shows bearishness,

has evoked a good response with a healthy build-up in open interest. With the relaunched futures, international traders could have exposure to

export prices of Indian pepper which are ruling at $8,050 a tonne C&F for Europe and $8,300 a tonne C&F for the US.

• India’s pepper production in 2017 is estimated at to 56,000 MT this year as against 48,500 tonnes in 2016, which also meant higher domestic

supplies though there were some quality issues in pepper from Karnataka. The pepper production in 2015 was 66,000 tonnes for comparison and

carryover stocks from last year were low due to steep fall in production last year.

• India’s domestic demand for pepper is on the increase on account of changing food habits. The current demand is estimated at 60,000 tonnes

per annum with an annual growth rate of 4 per cent

• Overall fundamental score of 2.7 shows bearishness in pepper prices.

BACK TO TOP

Date: 31-07-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

• Rice procurement target fixed higher at 37.5 MT for 2017-18 on hoped of good production News Link

• India discussing rice exports issue with EU: Commerce Secretary News Link

• Despite record production, Indian wheat imports to continue News Link

• Farmers shift away from arhar, soybean towards cotton News Link

• Heavy rain hits Gujarat kharif crop News Link

• Over half of India faces sugar crunch despite stock carryover, bumper crop News Link

• Economists rally behind GM Mustard News Link

• Centre may consider sugar import, stock limits on mills if prices rise News Link

• International food standard body CAC adopts universal standards for three spices News Link

• MoFPI registers 40 per cent increase in FDI, amounting to $770 million News Link

• North stays wet, South still dry News Link

• FSSAI issues red flag against pepper imports from Vietnam via Sri Lanka News Link

• US crop setbacks spark revival in soybean, cotton prices News Link

• 'Overly dry weather' to prompt hefty drop in world grains harvest News Link

-7.93.8

-0.8

-3.4

-1.5

2.2

0.2

0.2

1.2

-0.5

-1.5

-3.5

0.42

-9.0 -7.0 -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0

Chana

Tur

Wheat

Paddy

Pepper

Guar

Soya

Mustard

Cotton

Sugar

Castor

Turmeric

Jeera

% age change since 21st July 2017

News corner

OFFICIAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES

Third advance estimates 2016-17 & previous years’ estimates :

Third Advance Estimates

Link for commodity-wise and

market-wise prices and arrivals:

http://agmarknet.gov.in/PriceAndArrival

s/CommodityWiseDailyReport2.aspx

MSP in Rs /Qtl

Commodity 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18

Paddy Common 1410 1470 1550

paddy grade A 1450 1510 1590

Jowar Hybrid 1570 1625 1700

Jowar Maldandi 1590 1650 1725

Bajra 1275 1330 1425

Ragi 1650 1725 1900

Maize 1325 1365 1425

Tur 4625 5050 5450*

Moong 4850 5225 5575*

Urad 4625 5000 5400*

Groundnut 4030 4220 4450*

Sunflower seed 3800 3950 4100 #

Soyabean black 2775 3050

Sesamum 4700 5000 5300 #

Nigerseed 3650 3825 4050 #

Cotton(Medium Staple) 3800 3680 4020

Cotton(Long Staple) 4100 4160 4320

*includes bonus of Rs 200 per quintal

# includes bonus of Rs 100 per quintal

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MONSOON SITUATION

Date: 31-07-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Sowing progress: Kharif 2017-18- PIB

BACK TO TOP

Date: 31-07-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Advisory Team

Basant Vaid Head: TCIG basant.v@ncml.com

Sreedhar Nandam Vice President: SCM sreedhar.n@ncml.com

Research Team

Suresh Solanki Assistant Manager: TCIG suresh.s@ncml.com

Kamna Malhotra Economist: TCIG kamna.m@ncml.com

Akash Jaiswal Research Analyst: TCIG akash.j@ncml.com

Ansh Aggarwal Senior Officer: Trade Support ansh.a@ncml.com

For any research queries, contact us at research@ncml.com

Disclaimer:

This consultancy report has been prepared by National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCML) for the sole benefit of the addressee.

Neither the report nor any part of the report shall be provided to third parties without the written consent of NCML. Any third party in possession

of the report may not rely on its conclusions without the written consent of NCML. NCML has exercised reasonable care and skill in preparation

of this consultancy report but has not independently verified information provided by others. No other warranty, express or implied, is made in

relation to this report. Therefore, NCML assumes no liability for any loss resulting from errors, omissions or misrepresentations made by others.

Any recommendations, opinions and findings stated in this report are based on circumstances and facts as they existed at the time of preparation

of this report. Any change in circumstances and facts on which this report is based may adversely affect any recommendations, opinions or

findings contained in this report.

© National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCML) 2017

STOCK

Stock limits of States/UTs

Answers of NCoMM report dated 24 July 2017: 1. Name of the crop: Cotton, % increase in area over normal till 21 July: 13.28%

2. Name of the commodity: Tur, MSP for 2017-18: Rs 5450/ qtl.

The following people gave correct and complete answers in first go: Sandeep Shedge Priya Sengar Ravi Shankar Anil Kumar Parvathaneni

Som Dutt Sharma Krushna Chandra Mohanty Maheshkumar Ramaswamy

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