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Date: 26/02/2019 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

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NCoMM

NCML COMMODITY MARKET MONITOR

Cotton|Sugar|Soybean|RM Seed| Castor seed|Turmeric | Jeera

OUTLOOK

OTHER DATA Sowing progress| Advance estimates |Kharif and rabiMSP

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QUIZ

Chana| Rice/Paddy| Soybean

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NCML COMMODITY MARKET MONITOR NCoMM

0

Date: 26/02/2019 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamental Report

• According to report released by Nafed on 07th February 2018, all

India chana stock with Nafed is around 20.59 lakh MT. Nafed had

procured 27.24 lakh MT of chana last season in which Nafed had

sold 2.84 lakh tonnes at the average rate of Rs 4272.59 per quintal.

• According to the latest Rabi sowing report as on 01st February

2019, all India chana sowing acreage is recorded at 96.35 lakh

hectares which is 10.02 per cent lower than last year acreage of

107.08 lakh hectares in the same time period. Lower acreage is due

to lower availability of water and farmers also have shifted to other

crops as they have not got good return in chana last year.

• According to the market participants, chana crop condition in

Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra has slightly improved due to

slight showers and cold weather in first week of February.

However, recent unseasonal rains accompanied by hailstorm in

some parts may damage the crop. The extent of damage will be

assessed when the weather improves.

• Indian government is targeting chana production to be around

10.50 million MT for 2018-19. However, the trade believes the target

is most unlikely to be achieved due to lower chana sowing acreage

this year. Last year (2017-18) also government had estimated chana

production to be around 11.2 million MT, but the trade believes the

crop size to be around 9 million MT.

• According to the agmark data, all India chana arrivals in the second

week of February 2019 is reported at 32.79 thousand MT which is

6.21 per cent higher than the first week of February arrivals of 30.87

thousand MT.

• According to the latest report of ABARES, Australia chickpea

production for 2018-19 is estimated to be 3.51 lakh MT which is

69.43 per cent lower than the 2017-18 production estimate of 11.48

lakh MT. Lower production estimate is due to lower sowing

acreage of chickpea from 11.16 lakh hectares in 2017-18 to 3.27 lakh

hectares in 2018-19 due to lower rainfall and lower yield

expectation.

• Canada chickpea production estimate for 2018-19 is estimated at

3.11 lakh tonnes which higher than last year estimate of 1.02 lakh

tonnes. Higher production in2018-19 is due to higher sowing

acreage and better yield expectation than last year.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

25-02-2019 18-02-2019 %Change

Sri Ganga Nagar 3979 3992 -0.33

Bikaner 4054 4150 -2.31

Akola 4100 4300 -4.65

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Higher stocks with Nafed Bearish

Lower sowing acreage of chana Bullish

Favourable weather condition for standing crop

Bearish

Higher production estimate of chana Bearish

Lower production estimate of Australian chana

Bullish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

3300

3800

4300

4800

5300

5800

6300

Jun

-17

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

7

Sep

-17

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

Dec

-17

Jan

-18

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Gram - Rajasthani desi : Bikaner :

CHANA

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Date: 26/02/2019 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamental Report

• The All India progressive procurement of Rice as on 15th February 2019, increased to 348.24 lakh tonnes as compared to 291.42 lakh tonnes same period last year registering an increase of 19.49 per cent. The government has set Rice procurement target of 370.00 lakh tonnes during 2018-19 (October-September).

• Significant decline in procurement was noted from Punjab at 113.30 lakh tonnes as against 118.39 lakh tonnes last year. Procurement in Bihar was reported at2.86 lakh tonnes against last year 3.43 lakh tonnes. Higher procurement was reported from Telangana 27.06 lakh tonnes, Andhra Pradesh at 25.35 lakh tonnes, Chhatisgarh at 40.80 lakh tonnes, Madhya Pradesh 13.95 lakh tonnes, Odisha 29.31 lakh tonnes, Uttar Pradesh with 30.60 lakh tonnes, West Bengal 11.25 lakh tonnes, Tamil Nadu 5.30 lakh tonnes, Uttarakhand 4.58 lakh tonnes and Maharashtra procured 2.84 lakh tonnes.

• As per the Ministry of Agriculture, current acreage under Rice has declined at 33.96 lakh hectares as compared to 39.64 lakh hectares same period last year. The normal Rabi seasonal acreage is 41.59 lakh hectares.

• As per the First Advance Estimates 2018-19, production of Kharif Rice during 2018-19 is estimated at 99.24 million tonnes. This is higher by 1.74 million tonnes than the last year’s production of 97.50 million tonnes. Further, it is higher by 6.64 million tonnes over the average production of Kharif Rice during the last five years.

• The Government has announced Minimum Support Price of paddy common higher by Rs 200 per quintal to Rs 1,750 and for Grade A MSP increased by Rs 180 at Rs 1770 for the marketing year 2018-19 crop year starting from October.

• As per the report from DGCIS, during the first 9 months of this financial year i.e. April-December 2018, export of basmati rice declined to 28.61 lakh tonnes as compared to 29.11 lakh tonnes in the same period last year.India's rice exports between April and December dropped 14.04 per cent from a year earlier to 56.00 lakh tonnes as against 65.15 lakh tonnes, as leading buyer Bangladesh trimmed purchases due to a bumper local harvest.

• Exporters have seen a surge in demand from the United Arab Emirates, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the US this quarter. The supply for exports has streamlined after being affected for the last few months of 2018 because of assembly polls in states. A bumper yield in Bangladesh also took toll on Indian exports.

• According to market sources, Vietnam plans to export 6-7 million tonnes of rice this year, compared with roughly 6.1 million tonnes worth nearly 3.1 billion U.S. dollars last year.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

25-02-2019 18-02-2019 %Change

Aligarh (1121) 3350 3400 -1.47

Buland Shahr(1121)

3450 3451 -0.02

Amritsar(1121) 3300 3300 0.00

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Progressive Rice procurement increased to 348.24 lakh tonnes as against 291.42 lakh tonnes

Bullish

Lower acreage of Rice during current season at 33.96 lakh hectares as compared to 39.64 lakh hectares

Bullish

Higher Minimum Support Price (MSP) for Paddy in 2018-19 season

Bullish

Bumper rice production in Bangladesh resulting in lower demand

Bearish

Expectation of higher demand from United Arab Emirates, Iran, Saudi Arabia and U.S

Bullish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

1,150.00

1,350.00

1,550.00

1,750.00

No

v-1

7

Dec

-17

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Paddy : Sambha : Basti

RICE/PADDY

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Date: 26/02/2019 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamental Report

• Soybean prices recovered as domestic demand improved tracking

global cues. As per Soybean Processors Association of India’s

dialogues are on with China on fresh exports of soybean meal and

exports are likely to resume soon”. Exports to China will lift the market

sentiment and will give a boost to local markets.

• The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India has recently published

export data for export of oil meals for the month of January 2019. The

export of oil meals during January 2019, reported at 283,850 tonnes

compared to 269,668 tonnes in January 2018. The overall export

during April 2018 to January 2019 is reported at 2,692,452 tonnes

compared to 2,516,657 tonnes during the same period of last year i.e.

up by 7 per cent.

• Soymeal exports in January 2019 were near 2.7 lakh tonnes, higher by

13 per cent on monthly basis. On y-o-y basis, soymeal exports were

close to 11.34 lakh tonnes vs. 10.43 lakh tonnes, posting a rise of 9 per

cent. Among the major importers, Vietnam imported 491,720 tonnes of

oil meals (compared to 552,443 tonnes); consisting of 45,056 tonnes

of soybean meal. South Korea imported 632,109 tonnes of oil meals

(compared to 675,420 tonnes) out of which soymeal contributed

30,797 tonnes. Thailand imported 263,280 tonnes of oil meals

(compared to 159,377 tonnes); consisting 16,541 tonnes of soybean

meal.

• As per the 1st Advance Estimate for 2018-19 crops by the Ministry of

Agriculture, Soyabean production in the country is estimated higher at

134.59 lakh tonnes as compared to 109.81 lakh tonnes in 2017-18.

• As per Agribusiness consultancy AgRural, Brazil has harvested 36 per

cent of the planted soybean area for 2018-19 season. Farmers finished

19 per cent higher crop harvesting from previous year record

supported by dry and hot weather. Beans quality is good as of now.

Brazil may produce Soybean crop at 112.5 million tonnes in 2018-19

which is lower than its previous forecast i.e. 116.9 million tonnes due to

continue dry spell in the country.

• As per Agribusiness consultancy AgRural, Brazil is likely to export

soybean at 70.2 million tonnes in 2019 lower from its previous forecast

of 73 million tonnes because China and U.S trade war could not affect

much on Brazilian soybean demand.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

25-02-2019 18-02-2019 %Change

Indore 3810 3832 -0.57

Kota 3743 3778 -0.92

Nagpur 3812 3838 -0.67

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Higher stocks availability in global markets

Bearish

Expectation of soybean meal demand from China

Bullish

Oil meal exports increased compared to last year

Bullish

Soyabean production higher at 134.59 lakh tonnes as against 109.81 lakh tonnes in 2017-18

Bearish

Profit booking at higher levels may be noted

Bearish

Brazil may produce Soybean at 112.5 million tonnes in 2018-19 lower than its previous forecast 116.9 million tonnes

Bullish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

2700

2980

3260

3540

3820

4100

4380

Jan

-17

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar

-…

Ap

r-1

7

May

-…

May

-…

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-…

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-…

Dec

-17

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-…

Mar

-…

Ap

r-1

8

May

-…

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Jul-

18

Au

g-…

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-…

Dec

-18

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Soybean Indore

SOYBEAN

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Date: 26/02/2019 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

• Need to diversify exports,

explore new markets: Minister

• Punjab eyes horticulture growth

to boost diversification

• Afghanistan launches new export

route to India through Iran • India, US expected to soon

finalise a trade package to boost • Govt sets wheat procurement

target for 2019-20 at 35.7 million

tonne

• India's year-on-year sugar

production till Feb 15 up by 7%,

says ISMA

• Rabi foodgrain output to hit a

new high in 2018-19

• Government launches online

course, app to support potential

exporters

• Centre’s new agriculture export

policy to focus on exporting ..

To purchase the India Commodity

Year Book 2019, contact us at

research@ncml.com

Official Production Estimates

First advance estimates 2018-19 &

previous years’ estimates: Fourth

Advance Estimates 2017-18

MINIMUM SUPPORT PRICE (Rs/Qtl.)

Commodity 2017-18 2018-19

KHARIF **NEW**

Paddy Common 1550 1750

paddy grade A 1590 1770

Jowar Hybrid 1700 2430

Jowar Maldandi 1725 2450

Bajra 1425 1950

Ragi 1900 2897

Maize 1425 1700

Tur/Arhar 5450 5675

Moong 5575 6975

Urad 5400 5600

Groundnut 4450 4890

Sunflower seed 4100 5388

Soyabean black 3050 3399

Sesamum 5300 6249

Nigerseed 4050 5877

Cotton (Medium Staple) 4020 5150

Cotton (Long Staple) 4320 5450

RABI

Commodity 2017-18 2018-19

Wheat 1735 1840

Barley 1410 1440

Gram 4400 4620

Masur (Lentil) 4250 4475

Rapeseed/Mustard 4000 4200

Safflower 4100 4945

*includes bonus of Rs 200 per quintal

# includes bonus of Rs 100 per quintal

Commodity Latest Fortnight ago Month ago Year ago

25-Feb-19 11-Feb-19 28-Jan-19 26-Feb-18

Wheat indore 1950 2025 2062 1800

Chana bikaner 4054 4148 4100 3863

Rice/Paddy hanu

3425 3400 3300 3400

Sugar muzzafarnagar

3175 3120 3171 3311

Tur akola 5300 5475 5400 4400

Maize Gullab bagh

1995 2113 2002 1200

Jeera 16167 16658 17511 17447

PRICE TRACKER

Link for commodity-wise and

market-wise prices and arrivals:

http://agmarknet.gov.in/PriceAndArriv

als/CommodityWiseDailyReport2.aspx

THE WEEK THAT WAS

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Date: 26/02/2019 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

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Date: 26/02/2019 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

All India Weather status

Impact of weather on major crops

Acreage in lacs Hectare as on date

07thDecember2018

Source: Department of Agriculture,

Cooperation and Farmers Welfare

Last week all India Rainfall status: 14th Feb 2019 to 20th Feb 2019

• Meghalaya, Tripura, West Bengal, Maharashtra and Telangana States received deficit rainfall

• Arunachal Pradesh and Assam state received the excess rainfall.

• Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Bihar, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu states received the

large deficit rainfall

• Sikkim, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and

Chhattisgarh states received the large excess rainfall.

• Haryana, Jammu & Kashmir, Odisha and Kerala states received the normal rainfall

• No rainfall is observed in the States Of Gujarat and Karnataka

During the week, rainfall was above Long Period Average (LPA) by 25 % over the country as a whole.

Seasonal all India Rainfall status: 1st Jan 2019 to 25th Feb 2019.

• Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Nagaland, Sikkim, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh,

Gujarat, Maharashtra and Kerala states received the deficit rainfall

• Himachal Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Karnataka states received the excess rainfall

• Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura and Tamil Nadu states received large deficit rainfall.

• Uttarakhand, Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir and Telangana States Received the large excess rainfall

• Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Rajasthan Andhra Pradesh states received the normal rainfall

For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during 01 January to 25th February 2019 was above LPA by

19% over the country as a whole.

Weather Forecast:

• Cumulative rainfall is very likely to be above normal over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, west Bengal &

Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura and normal elsewhere.

• Night minimum temperatures in the range of 25 - 27ºC are likely to prevail over Tamil Nadu, south Kerala and also along the east coast.

• Day Maximum temperatures are likely to remain in the range 36 - 38ºC over interior parts of south peninsular India including

Maharashtra and also along the east coast

• Above normal day temperatures are likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, coastal Karnataka and Konkan & Goa. Rest of India

is likely to experience below normal day temperatures.

All India Reservoir Status: as on 15th Feb 2019

Central Water Commission monitors 91 major reservoirs in the

country which have total live capacity of 161.99 Billion Cubic

Meter (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL). Out of these, 76

reservoirs with FRL capacity of 120.44 BCM have irrigation

potential. Live storage in the 91 major reservoirs as on 15th

February, 2019 has been 66.26 BCM as against 63.96 BCM on

15.02.2018 (last year) and 69.17 BCM of normal (average of

the last 10 years) storage. Current year’s storage is 104% of

last year’s storage and nearly 96% of average of last 10 year’s

storage.

Source: IMD, DAC&FW and CWC

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Date: 26/02/2019 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Impact of weather on major crops

Crop Normal Acreage

Acreage 2018-19

Current crop condition

Wheat 306.29 298.47

Current Scenario: Wheat crop is about 90 to 120 days old. Currently, the crop is in stem elongation to heading/flowering stage. Rainfall received in first fortnight of Feb-2019 (Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar and Rajasthan) is beneficial to the crop health and yield. In partially irrigated areas of Western Rajasthan and Maharashtra the crop is struggling due to large deficit rains. Overall crop condition is satisfactory. Prediction: Yield is expected to be normal.

Rapeseed & Mustard

61.25 69.37

Current Scenario: Crop is 100 to 115 days old and is in seed development to repining stage. Early sown crop is being harvested. Early matured crop in some parts (Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh) is mildly affected due to rainfall and thunderstorm received in first fortnight of Feb-2019 which has led to delay in harvesting. Incidence of disease and insect has not been observed in field till date. Overall crop condition is satisfactory. Prediction: Yield is expected to be normal.

Chickpea 89.45 96.59

Current Scenario: Gram crop is 9o to 110 days old and harvesting has been initiated. Incidence of disease and insect has been observed in some States like Maharashtra (affected by damping off). Crop in Madhya Pradesh & Rajasthan is affected by frost and drought. The rainfall received in first fortnight of Feb-2019 is beneficial for late sown crop`s. Overall crop condition is below-normal to normal Prediction: Yield is expected to be below normal to normal.

Lentil 13.94 16.93

Current Scenario: Crop is 80 to 95 days old and is currently

in to pod formation to seed development stage. Incidence

of disease and insect has not been observed in field till

date. Rainfall received in first fortnight of Feb-2019 is

beneficial for crop`s health and yield. Overall current crop

condition is normal.

Prediction: Yield is expected to be normal.

Acreage in lac Hectares on date 15thFebruary’ 2019.

Source: Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers Welfare.

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Date: 26/02/2019 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

yyy

link ANSWERS & LUCKY

WINNER OF PREVIOUS

WEEK’S QUIZ

NCoMMQUIZ PREVIOUS WEEK’S ANSWERS

THESE PEOPLE ANSWERED CORRECTLY!

1. Name the country which imported highest quantity of Castor Meal from India?

South Korea

2. As per the report, what was the final Turmeric acreage in Telangana?

47,888 hectares

None

3. What is the Bullish factor in prices of jeera from the following?

S.no Full Name Location S.no Full Name Location

1 Dr.Ravi pratap singh Sangwan Haryana 16 Yogesh Sanwarmal Sharma Kanjurmarg (Mumbai)

2 Pawan Joshi Karnal, Haryana 17 Anil kumar sharma Bikaner

3 Sarita Mittal Gurgaon 18 Prashant Kumar Ojha` Unjha

4 Prashant Balel Mumbai 19 Twinkle Gupta Gurgaon

5 Shankar Pawar Hyderabad 20 Nishikanta Pallai Patna

6 Praveen Kumar Mundra Ellenabad 21 Rajaram Bhilare Mumbai

7 Akshay Vivek Gurgoan 22 Shivappa.r Pagadadinni paicomp

8 Anilkumar Parvathaneni Gurgaon 23 Mrityunjay Kumar Tiwari Unjha

9 Kuldip Singh Gurugram 24 Pratima Goswami Gurgaon

10 Spoorthy Avadhanula hyderabad 25 Bhagvat dhondiram chavan Pangaon

11 Adatsh sharma Kanpur p 26 munesh kumar sharma Gurgaon

12 JAI KUMAR AMRITSAR 27 NITIN LAXMAN TAMBE

Kapashi.Tal. -Phaltan,Dist.-Satara.Maharashtra.

13 Amit Gangadhar Sangli P 28 Prathamesh Subhash Tike Kapashi

14 Bhika ram Jodhpur 29 Lalji singh yadav Samana

15 Dilip Namdeo BHOPAL 30 PAWAN KUMAR GURGAON

31 Om Singh Bikaner

LUCKY WINNER!

Pawan Joshi

Mktyard Department

CONGRATULATIONS!

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Date: 26/02/2019 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Advisory Team

Nalin Rawal Head: CWIG Nalin.r@ncml.com

Sreedhar Nandam Vice President: SCM sreedhar.n@ncml.com

Research Team

Suresh Solanki Assistant Manager: TCIG suresh.s@ncml.com

Rajiv Kumar Associate: TCIG rajiv.ku@ncml.com

Akash Jaiswal Research Analyst: TCIG akash.j@ncml.com

Nahalaxmi. J Client Service Executive:TCIG Nahalaxmi.j@gmail.com

Shefali Jain Operation Executive: TCIG Shefali.j@ncml.com

Ratnapriya Assistant Manager: TCIG ratnapriya.a@ncml.com

Ansh Aggarwal Senior Officer: Trade Support ansh.a@ncml.com

Disclaimer:

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addressee. Neither the report nor any part of the report shall be provided to third parties without the written consent of NCML. Any

third party in possession of the report may not rely on its conclusions without the written consent of NCML. NCML has exercised

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No other warranty, express or implied, is made in relation to this report. Therefore, NCML assumes no liability for any loss resulting

from errors, omissions or misrepresentations made by others. Any recommendations, opinions and findings stated in this report are

based on circumstances and facts as they existed at the time of preparation of this report. Any change in circumstances and facts on

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© National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCML) 2019