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Date: 27/11/2018 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

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NCoMM

NCML COMMODITY MARKET MONITOR

Cotton | Sugar | Soybean | RM Seed | Castor seed | Turmeric | Jeera

OUTLOOK

OTHER DATA Sowing progress | Advance estimates | Kharif and rabi MSP

ANSWERS & LUCKY WINNER OF PREVIOUS WEEK’S

RM Seed | Jeera | Castor Seed | Turmeric

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NCML COMMODITY MARKET MONITOR NCoMM

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Date: 27/11/2018 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamental Report

• In a recent move, NAFED has suspended the auction of mustard in Rajasthan

till further notice. Recent downward movement in mustard prices may be

one of the reasons for such a move. Nafed may be still holding around 5.89

lakh tonnes of mustard seed from total procured quantity of 8.64lakh tonnes

during the Rabi 2017.

• Mustard arrivals in the domestic mandis also had decreased due to lower

prices. According to the agmark data, all India mustard arrivals in the fourth

week of November 2018 is reported at 16.48 thousand MT which is 21.03 per

cent lower than the third week arrivals of 20.87 thousand MT.

• According to the latest rabi sowing progress report, as on 22nd November

all India mustard acreage for 2018-19 is reported at 52.93 lakh hectares which

is 3.04 per cent higher than 2017-18 acreage of 51.37 lakh hectares. Farmers

has moved to mustard due to higher MSP 4200 per quintal and procurement

activities by the government at the MSP. Moreover, higher prices of mustard

throughout the season have given good returns to the farmers.

• Mustard production target for 2018-19 is 84.86 lakh metric tonnes. According

to the fourth advance estimate of government, India mustard production

estimate for 2017-18 is 83.22 lakh metric tonnes which is 5.11 percent higher

than the 2016-17 production estimate of 79.17 lakh metric tonnes.

• According to the trade sources, Mustard oil mills across the country crushed

6.0 lakh tonnes of the oilseed in October, up 33.3% from a year ago. Crushing

is higher in expectation of higher oil meal demand from China. China has

lifted the ban on the imports of mustard meal from India last month which

they had banned in 2012 on quality concerns.

• India’s mustard meal exports in the month of October 2018 were 25.234

thousand MT (provisional), lower by 77.92 per cent against 89.875 thousand

MT in September 2018. Total exports of rapeseed meal from April 2018 to

October 2018 were 6.80 lakh MT which is 110.52 percent higher than 2017

exports of 3.23 lakh MT in the same time period. Average FoB price of

mustard meal in the month of October is $229 which is slightly higher than

FoB price of August of $226.

• India’s rapeseed oil imports in the month of September 2018 is 11.996

thousand MT which is 51.05 percent lower than the import of August 2018 of

24.509 thousand MT. Total imports of rapeseed oil from November 2017 to

September 2018 were 2.40 lakh MT which is 5.88 per cent lower than 2016-17

imports of 2.55 lakh MT in the same time period. Imports of mustard oil

decreased due to higher import duty and higher crushing in India due to

good demand of oilmeal.

•

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

26-11-2018 19-11-2018 %Change

Jaipur 4217.5 4250 -0.76

Sriganganagar 4210 4225 -0.36

Bulandshahr 3895 3895 0.00

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

NAFED has suspended the auction of mustard in Rajasthan

Bullish

Lower arrivals of mustard crop in the domestic mandis

Bullish

Higher sowing acreage Bearish

Higher production estimate Bearish

Higher crushing of mustard crop Bearish

Lower imports of mustard oils Bullish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

3,500

3,750

4,000

4,250

4,500

4,750

5,000

5,250

Jul-1

6

Oct

-16

Jan

-17

Ap

r-17

Jul-1

7

Oct

-17

Jan

-18

Ap

r-18

Jul-1

8

Oct

-18

Rapeseed & Mustard-Black - 42% oil content : Jaipur

RM SEED

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Date: 27/11/2018 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamental Report

• According to the Gujarat agriculture department, Gujarat jeera

sowing acreage as on 19th November 2018 is recorded at 4.42 lakh

hectares in 2018 which is 66.02 per cent lower than last year acreage

of 13.01 lakh hectares in the same time period. Lower acreage is due

to lower rainfall received and lower availability of water.

• According to the trade sources, farmers in Gujarat are keen to sow

jeera crop over other crops due to higher prices. However, lower

availability of water through dams may not let farmers to sow jeera.

• According to the market participants, all India jeera stocks are may be

around 11-12 lakh bags. Farmers and stockiest may hold jeera in

expectation of getting higher prices in the coming days.

• According to the agmark data, all India jeera arrivals in the fourth

week of November 2018 is reported at 3.078 thousand MT which is

41.83 per cent lower than the third week arrivals of 5.292 thousand

MT. Lower arrivals of jeera in the domestic mandis is due to lower

prevailing prices.

• The overseas demand for Indian jeera is expected to increase as the

supply from other origins like Turkey and Syria are limited and of poor

quality due to crop damage. Although Indian jeera is priced higher in

the global market, it is drawing more buyers because of superior

quality.

• According to the market estimates, India has already exported

around 1.25 lakh tonnes of jeera so far this year and there is a

possibility of it touching a record 1.75 lakh tonnes by the end of this

fiscal year. The highest export volume was recorded at 1.55 lakh

tonnes in 2014.

• As per the Ministry of Agriculture, Cumin production in India for 2017-18 is estimated at 5 lakh tonnes as against 4.95 lakh tonnes in 2016-17. According to the 4th advance estimate for Gujarat state,2017-18 production is estimated at 2.88 lakh tonnes, up by 45.5 per cent primarily on higher acreage and favourable climate. However, this year deficient rainfall in jeera producing areas may support the market in the long run.

•

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

26-11-2018 19-11-2018 %Change

Unjha 19800 19891.7 -0.46

Patan 17830 17805 0.14

Jodhpur 19650 19800 -0.76

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Lower sowing acreage in Gujarat Bullish

Lower stock with farmers Bullish

Lower arrivals in the mandis Bullish

Higher export demand Bullish

Higher production estimate Bearish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

13,000.00

15,000.00

17,000.00

19,000.00

21,000.00

Jun

-16

Se

p-1

6

No

v-16

Feb

-17

Ap

r-17

Jul-1

7

Se

p-1

7

No

v-17

Feb

-18

Ap

r-18

Jul-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Cumin Seed (Jeera) - Unjha

JEERA

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Date: 27/11/2018 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamental Report

• Castor seed prices showed declining trend as limited buying and selling

activities were noted in most of the spot markets of Gujarat and

Rajasthan. Buyers are now cautious due to sharp fall in and thus

business activity in sluggish.

• Castor seed price so far this calendar year rose by over 28 per cent and

most of the gains were witnessed since October as drought looms over

Castor crop in Gujarat.

• According to traders, Castor seed production next season is expected

to sharply down at around 8-9 lakh tonnes only. They also pegged

present Castor stocks in the country to be around 3-4 lakh tonnes

against 7-8 lakh tonnes in the same period last year.

• Castor seed may trade volatile in the near term, but long-term outlook

is bullish as consumption demand is expected to remain strong ahead

and lower crop unlikely to fulfill it.

• All India Castor seed acreage was in 2018 is 8.59 lakh hectares which is

up by 5.15 per cent from last year area of 8.78 lakh hectares. Lower area

is reported from the states of Telangana and Gujarat while higher

acreage is only reported from Andhra Pradesh.

• As per the Ministry of Agriculture 1st Advance Estimates for 2018-19,

Castor seed production in India is estimated at 15.17 lakh tonnes as

compared to 15.68 lakh tonnes in 2017-18. The all India Castor seed

production target for 2018-19 was 18.31 lakh tonnes.

• The final Kharif acreage under Castor in Gujarat declined to 5.33 lakh

hectares as compared to 5.95 lakh hectares last year. The normal Kharif

Castor acreage in Gujarat is 6.48 lakh hectares.

• Gujarat Agriculture Department in its first advance estimates for 2018-

19 estimated Castor crop to decline more than 20 per cent to 11.73 lakh

tonnes versus 14.84 lakh tonnes.

• During April to Sept’18, Vietnam imported 277,406 tonnes of oil meals

(compared to 223,184 tonnes) consisting of 7,160 tonnes of soybean

meal, around 94,559 tonnes of rapeseed meal and 175,687 tonnes of

Rice Bran Extraction. South Korea imported 441,119 tonnes of oil meals

(compared to 427,126 tonnes) consisting 280,292 tonnes of rapeseed

meal, 10,832 tonnes of soybean meal and 149,995 tonnes of Castor

meal. Thailand imported 167,101 tonnes of oil-meals (compared to

76,895 tonnes) consisting 4,747 tonnes of soybean meal, 10,253 tonnes

of De-oiled Rice Bran Extraction, and 152,065 tonnes of rapeseed meal.

France imported 76,704 tonnes of oil-meals consisting 74,499 tonnes

of soybean meal and 2,205 tonnes of Castor meal.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

26-11-2018 19-11-2018 %Change

Patan 5500 6175 -10.93

Bhabhar 5600 6037 -7.23

Deesa 5640 5625 0.26

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Limited buying and selling activities in spot markets of Gujarat and Rajasthan

Bearish

Castor seed production in India estimated at 15.17 lakh tonnes as against 15.68 lakh tonnes in 2017-18

Bullish

Castor stocks at around 3-4 lakh tonnes against 7-8 lakh tonnes in the same period last year

Bullish

Profit booking at higher levels Bearish

Castor crop to decline more than 20 per cent at 11.73 lakh tonnes versus 14.84 lakh tonnes in Gujarat

Bullish

Castor acreage in Gujarat declined to 5.33 lakh hectares as compared to 5.95 lakh hectares last year

Bullish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

2800

3240

3680

4120

4560

5000

5440

5880

6320

6760

Jul-1

5

Oct

-15

Jan

-16

Ap

r-16

Jul-1

6

Oct

-16

Jan

-17

Ap

r-17

Jul-1

7

Oct

-17

Jan

-18

Ap

r-18

Jul-1

8

Oct

-18

Castor - Deesa

CASTOR

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Date: 27/11/2018 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamental Report

• Turmeric prices in most of the spot markets have remained weak due

to limited buying and trading activities. The export demand is also

reported sluggish.

• Traders are now very continuous due to decline in futures market.

Trading activities are also dull as the quality of stocks available for trade

is inferior.

• As per traders, the overall sentiments are weak in the wake of the

Andhra Pradesh government directive to the state-run agencies to

offload Turmeric stocks at current market prices on an immediate basis.

Around 2 lakh bags of Turmeric stocks are still lying with the state-run

agencies. The weakness is likely to continue for a 1 or 2 weeks further.

• According to trade sources, Turmeric crop loss in Maharashtra may be

sever as the state is facing drought like conditions in Key turmeric areas.

Lower rainfall during monsoon was received in Marathwada turmeric

growing regions like Hingoli, Sangli, Nanded, Basmat which as affect

Turmeric crop.

• As per trade information, currently, all India Turmeric stocks are

reported around 18 – 20 lakh bags (1 bag = 70 kgs) as compared to last

year 28 – 30 lakh bags, down by around 34 per cent.

• Turmeric exported reported higher at around 12,118 tonnes in

September compared to August 16,216 tonnes.

• Currently Turmeric stocks in Nizamabad (both old and new crop) were

estimated around 3.00 lakh bags (1 bag = 70 kgs) as compared to

around 2.00 lakh bags same period last year.

• In Warangal market, new Turmeric arrivals are completed. Currently,

cold storage stocks continue to arrive at the market to the tune of 65 -

80 bags (65 kg each) per day, last week it was 100 – 200 bags.

• In Andhra Pradesh, Turmeric final sowing reported 18,737 hectares as

compared to 14,841 hectares in the corresponding period last year, 104

per cent sowing completed from season normal.

• In Telangana, final Turmeric sowing reported at 47,888 hectares as

compared to 44,956 hectares in the corresponding period last year.

Current sowing stands at 87 per cent of normal for the season.

• As per the Ministry of Agriculture, All India Turmeric production in 2017-

18 is estimated at 11.63 lakh tonnes as against 10.56 lakh tonnes

estimated in 2016-17.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

26-11-2018 19-11-2018 %Change

Nizamabad 7151 7195 -0.61

Duggirala 6450 6525 -1.14

Erode 7700 7900 -2.53

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Subdued domestic and export demand in most of the spot markets

Bearish

Traders are now very continuous due to decline in futures market

Bearish

Andhra Pradesh government directive to the state-run agencies to offload Turmeric stocks

Bearish

Lower production expected from Maharashtra due to drought like conditions

Bullish

Higher stocks availability at Nizamabad market compared to last year

Bearish

Turmeric production in 2017-18 estimated at 11.63 lakh tonnes as against 10.56 lakh tonnes in 2016-17

Bearish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

4800

5500

6200

6900

7600

8300

9000

9700

Jun

-14

Oct

-14

Mar

-15

Jul-1

5

No

v-15

Ap

r-16

Au

g-1

6

De

c-16

May

-17

Se

p-1

7

Feb

-18

Jun

-18

Oct

-18

Turmeric : Unpolished fingers : Nizamabad

TURMERIC

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Date: 27/11/2018 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

• Cotton output may dip 2% to 361

lakh bales, says CAB

• Chinese market brightens

prospects for mustard

• Government procures 16.51

million tons of rice so far; to

exceed target • Oilseeds market prices show

little change as MP caps payout

under Bhawantar • Government to procure 44 lakh

tonne of oilseeds and pulses

under the PM- AAASHA scheme

• India's y-o-y HPS groundnut

exports to decline in 2018-19,

says SEA

• Castorseed prices hit sweet spot

on low stock, bleak crop outlook

• Basmati paddy price surges 25%

on expectation of output decline

• Oil meals export decline in

October

To purchase the India Commodity

Year Book 2018, contact us at

research@ncml.com

Official Production Estimates

Fourth advance estimates 2017-18 &

previous years’ estimates: Fourth

Advance Estimates 2017-18

MINIMUM SUPPORT PRICE (Rs/Qtl.)

Commodity 2017-18 2018-19

KHARIF **NEW**

Paddy Common 1550 1750

paddy grade A 1590 1770

Jowar Hybrid 1700 2430

Jowar Maldandi 1725 2450

Bajra 1425 1950

Ragi 1900 2897

Maize 1425 1700

Tur/Arhar 5450 5675

Moong 5575 6975

Urad 5400 5600

Groundnut 4450 4890

Sunflower seed 4100 5388

Soyabean black 3050 3399

Sesamum 5300 6249

Nigerseed 4050 5877

Cotton (Medium Staple) 4020 5150

Cotton (Long Staple) 4320 5450

RABI

Commodity 2017-18 2018-19

Wheat 1735 1840

Barley 1410 1440

Gram 4400 4620

Masur (Lentil) 4250 4475

Rapeseed/Mustard 4000 4200

Safflower 4100 4945

*includes bonus of Rs 200 per quintal

# includes bonus of Rs 100 per quintal

Commodity Latest Fortnight ago Month ago Year ago

26-Nov-18 12-Oct-18 27-Oct-18 27-Nov-17

Soybean 3445 3364 3280 2971

RM seed 4217.5 4260.4 4336.1 4182.7

Turmeric 6800 7000 7000 7500

Cotton 12464.9 12921.8 13132.7 10615.9

Jeera 11300 12200 11500 9500

Castor 19800 20471.5 19842 20341.7

PRICE TRACKER

Link for commodity-wise and

market-wise prices and arrivals:

http://agmarknet.gov.in/PriceAndArriv

als/CommodityWiseDailyReport2.aspx

THE WEEK THAT WAS

*

0

Date: 27/11/2018 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

0

Date: 27/11/2018 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

All India Weather status

Last week all India Rainfall status: 15-21 Nov’18

• Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Sikkim, Uttarakhand, Chandigarh (Ut), Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Goa and Kerala states

received the large excess rainfall.

• Jammu & Kashmir, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry (Ut) and Lakshadweep (Ut) states received the excess

rainfall

• Karnataka and Delhi (Ut) states received the normal rainfall.

• Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh and Telangana states received the large deficit

rainfall.

• Haryana, Andaman & Nicobar (Ut) and Andhra Pradesh states received the deficit rainfall.

• No rainfall is observed in the states of Tripura, Jharkhand, Bihar, Rajasthan, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Dadar

& Nagar Haveli (Ut), Daman & Diu (Ut) and Chhattisgarh.

Seasonal all India Rainfall status: 1st Oct to 26th Nov’18

• In this season Jammu and Kashmir is only the state received the excess rainfall

• Himachal Pradesh, Odisha, Andaman & Nicobar (Ut), Tamilnadu, Pondicherry (Ut), Kerala and Lakshadweep

(Ut) states received the normal rainfall

• Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Mizoram, Tripura, Sikkim, West Bengal, Chandigarh (Ut), Goa, and Karnataka states

received deficit rainfall.

• Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Jharkhand, Bihar,Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Delhi (Ut), Punjab,

Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Dadar & Nagar Haveli (Ut), Daman & Diu (Ut), Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh,

Adhra Pradesh and Telangana states received the large deficit rainfall

Weather Forecast:

• Minimum temperatures are likely to be slight above normal over parts northwest,adjoining central and west India and some pocket of northeastern states

and south Interior Karnataka till 6th December and below normal over east and adjoining central and peninsular India for the same period.

• Shallow to moderate fog likely at isolated pockets over northeastern states till 6th December and over parts of northern plains between 26th November to

6th December 2018.

• The weekly cumulative rainfall is likely to be above normal over extreme south Peninsular India between 23rd to 29th and below normal between 30th Nov

to 6th Dec. over extreme south peninsular India & along east coast. The above normal precipitation likely over Jammu & Kashmir between 23rd to 29th

November. Rest of the country very likely to be experience nearnormal rainfall activity till 6 December 2018

The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 91

important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of

161.99 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM), which is about 63% of total reservoir

capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.

As on 22nd November 2018 live storage available in these reservoirs is

103.236 BCM and average of last 10 years live storage was 105.855 BCM.

Thus, the live storage available in 91 major reservoirs as on 22nd November

2018 is 99% of the live storage of the corresponding period of last year and

96% of storage of average of last 10 years.

0

Date: 27/11/2018 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Impact of weather on major crops

Crop All India

Acreage

Current crop condition

Wheat 111.96*

Major wheat growing states are Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab,

Rajasthan, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand

and Rajasthan. Rainfall pattern in first half of Nov is beneficial for

sowing in Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Sowing is

ongoing in all state. Overall condition as well as germination stage is

normal.

Rapeseed

&Mustard 52.93

Major rapeseed growing states are Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh,

Haryana, and Madhya Pradesh. Crop sowing is in completion stage

and is currently in vegetative stage. Incidence of disease and insect

has not been observed in field till date. Further, moisture in the soil is

decreasing continuously in Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Rajasthan.

Overall crop condition is normal.

Chickpea 62.65*

Major gram sowing state is Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra,

Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. Gram

sowing speed is affected by initial deficient moisture in Nov. Major

part of crop sowing in northern and central region will be done by the

end of November but will get delayed in southern region. Incidence

of disease and insect has not been observed in field till date. Overall

crop condition is normal.

Lentil 10.24*

Major lentil crop sowing state is Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh

(Buldelkhand region). Crop sowing is in process currently. Incidence

of disease and insect has not been observed in field till date. As

moisture in the soil is decreasing continuously, sowing of gram may

get switch to lentil as lentil crop require less water as compare to

gram. Further deficiency in rainfall might impact crop health. Overall

crop condition is normal.

*in progress,

Acreage in lacs Hectare as on date 26 November 2018

Source: Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers Welfare

0

Date: 27/11/2018 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

yyy

link

NCoMM QUIZ PREVIOUS WEEK’S ANSWERS

THESE PEOPLE ANSWERED CORRECTLY!

1. India Wheat sowing in 2018-19 is expected to be_____than last year.

Higher

2. In which commodity there is no import restriction?

Guar

China

3. Which country is largest producer of paddy?

Name NCML Department

1 Srinivasu S S&P

2 Neha Sharma HR& Admin

LUCKY WINNER!

Neha Sharma

HR&Admin

CONGRATULATIONS!

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Date: 27/11/2018 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Advisory Team

Nalin Rawal Head: CWIG Nalin.r@ncml.com

Sreedhar Nandam Vice President: SCM sreedhar.n@ncml.com

Research Team

Suresh Solanki Assistant Manager: TCIG suresh.s@ncml.com

Rajiv Kumar Associate: TCIG rajiv.ku@ncml.com

Akash Jaiswal Research Analyst: TCIG akash.j@ncml.com

Disclaimer:

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addressee. Neither the report nor any part of the report shall be provided to third parties without the written consent of NCML. Any

third party in possession of the report may not rely on its conclusions without the written consent of NCML. NCML has exercised

reasonable care and skill in preparation of this consultancy report but has not independently verified information provided by others.

No other warranty, express or implied, is made in relation to this report. Therefore, NCML assumes no liability for any loss resulting from

errors, omissions or misrepresentations made by others. Any recommendations, opinions and findings stated in this report are based

on circumstances and facts as they existed at the time of preparation of this report. Any change in circumstances and facts on which

this report is based may adversely affect any recommendations, opinions or findings contained in this report.

© National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCML) 2017