Date: 14-11-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

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Cotton | Sugar | Soybean | RM Seed | Castor seed | Turmeric | Jeera

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OTHER DATA Sowing progress | Advance estimates | Kharif and rabi MSP

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Date: 14-11-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamentals- Domestic & International

Price Trend & Technicals

15000

17000

19000

21000

23000

No

v-15

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c-15

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

May

-16

Jul-1

6

Au

g-1

6

Oct

-16

De

c-16

Jan

-17

Mar

-17

May

-17

Jun

-17

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g-1

7

Oct

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No

v-17

Cotton - 29 mm - Rajkot

COTTON

The arrivals of cotton have picked up pace. The prices have already

slid down and are expected to drop further when the arrivals peak

till this month end. Sharp increase in the areage this year and the

bumper production estimated mean that the supplies will dominate

the market this season. Despite state governments announcing

bonus over MSP, we expect prices to trade under pressure in the

coming days. The price may fall towards 17850, and further down to

17200 on breach on 17850. On the other side the resistance stands at

Rs 18500. But considering the current sentiments the chances of

prices testing the resistance level in the near future are bleak.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

17200 17850 18046 18500 18821

Outlook: Prices will trade under arrival pressure and can further move down and crack the level of Rs 17850.

• Indian traders have not signed new cotton export contracts in the past one week as they are waiting for the domestic prices to decline further to

get export parity. Bumper production would help India sell 7.5 million bales of cotton in the world market in 2017/18 season starting in Oct. In

2016-17, the exports were down by 16 per to 5.68 million bales compared to 6.77 million tonnes in previous year.

• The Gujarat government announced a bonus of Rs 100 per 20 kg for cotton to be paid to farmers over and above the minimum support price

(MSP) to farmers who sell their produce to the CCI. This provided some support to cotton prices. Maharashtra and Telangana are also expected

to announce a bonus amount if there is intervention by the CCI.

• India imported about 1.85 million bales (170 kg per bale) during CY 2016-17 till June, up by 130% compared to previous year imports, as per data

released on Department of Commerce.

• Internationally, the prices may remain under pressure as higher crop is expected. According to International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC),

global cotton output is likely to rise 10% to 25.4 million tonnes in 2017-18 (from 23.05 million tonnes previous year) on expected production

increase in India and the US. The higher forecast is due expansion in acreage by 3 million hectares to over 32 million hectares across the world

and stability of global prices in 2016/17.

• The most significant portion of the increase will come from the USA which should record an output of 4.6 million tons in 2017/18, up 23%

compared to the previous season. Other producers whose output is expected to rise include India, China, Pakistan & Brazil..

• Overall score of 2.4 shows bearishness in cotton prices.

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)*

Sharp increase in cotton area sown and Bumper crop estimate Bearish 20% 2

Arrivals picking pace Bearish 30% 1

Purchases by CCI Bullish 15% 4

Announcement of bonus over MSP by Gujarat, and expectation of other states announcing bonus too

Bullish 10% 4

Higher exports expected this year Bullish 10% 4

High global production and availability Bearish 15% 2

Overall fundamental score 2.4

*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5.Bullish

• Cotton arrivals have picked up in all major cultivation centres and the arrivals

are nearly 1 lakh bales a day now.. The arrivals will further gain momentum and

touch 2-2.5 lakh bales a day by the end of this month.

• Production is expected to cross 385 lakh bales this year against last year’s

337.25 lakh bales. This is because the area under cotton increased sharply by

19.27% over last year due to better price realisation by farmers last year.

• The Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has started purchases at various centres.

CCI plans to buy 100 lakh bales this year at both MSP prices and commercial

purchase.

•

• According to CCI-director (marketing) M.M. Chokkalingam, the corporation is

purchasing approximately 15,000 bales a day now. “The plan is to buy 100 lakh

bales this year at both MSP prices and [through] commercial purchase,”

BACK TO TOP

Mandi Price in Rs/ Qtl.

10-11-2017 03-11-2017 %Change

Akola (Long Staple)

10467.3 10397 0.68

Rajkot (29 mm) 10598.3 10716.6 -1.10

Abohar (Med Staple)

9591.3 9641.3 -0.52

Date: 14-11-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

s

Price Trend & Technicals

Amidst crushing picking pace and supplies coming in from mills, the

sugar prices declined over the last fortnight. Festive demand, delay

in crushing and lower carryover stiocks collectively lent some

support to the prices. However with a rebound in production

expected from seven year low, the prices may be further

pressurised. They may crack the the support of Rs 3630. Any

significant upside may not be seen from here. Only a breach of Rs

3725 will result in generation of fresh selling pressure towards Rs

3675 mark

IMPORTANT LEVELS

• Soaring stocks of sugar on supplies from mills mainly pulled down sugar

prices over last fortnight. The crushing has picked pace.

• Sugar production in India is set to bounce back from a seven-year low as the

area planted under cane this year is increase by 9.44%, and rain boosted

yields. More than 512 mills are likely to operate this year against 490 mills

last year.

• Sugar production is expected to be 25.1-25.5 million metric tons for the

current crushing season (October 2017 to September 2018), a sharp increase

from 20.3 mt the previous year.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

10-11-2017 03-11-2017 %Change

Muzzafarnagar 3700 3725.25 -0.68

Kanpur 3804.8 3844.4 -1.03

Delhi 3697.5 3695 0.07

• The retreating monsoon this year has been good in parts of Maharashtra after two consecutive years of low rains, while in Uttar Pradesh the

high-yielding C0-238 variety is expected to cover almost 80 per cent of the planted area.

• Production in UP is expected to be higher y-o-y by 19% at 10.5 mn t (8.8 mn t) this year. Maharashtra’s production, which came down to 4.2 mn

t in 2016-17, is expected to double to 8.4-8.5 mn t this year. Karnataka is also expected to see its production rise by over 80 per cent to 4 mn t.

Sugar mills in Maharashtra will begin crushing operations on 1 November.

• UP government has increased the State Advised Price (SAP) of sugarcane by Rs 10/qtl over previous year from Rs 305/quintal to Rs 315/quintal.

• CACP has recommended Rs 20 per quintal hike in the fair and remunerative price of sugarcane at Rs 275 per quintal for next season,

• The end of quotas in the European Union is expected to mean a pickup in exports from the bloc, while production in Thailand is set to rise.

India won’t need imports this year

• The global sugar production in 2017-18 is expected to climb by nearly 7% to a record 179.3 million tonnes. Brazil is expected to produce 39.38

million tonnes of sugar in 2017-18, 1.8% higher than the sugar produced last year in 2016-17.

• Brazilian mills increased the amount of cane used for ethanol production in the first half of October, and reduced sugar output. Lower Brazilian

sugar output in October led to upward movement in International sugar futures.

• Overall fundamental score of 2.9 shows mild bearishness.

BACK TO TOP

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

3545 3630 3,660 3725 3800

Outlook: The prices will remain pressurised and may further fall to 3630.

2,100

2,400

2,700

3,000

3,300

3,600

3,900

De

c-13

Ap

r-14

Se

p-1

4

Jan

-15

May

-15

Se

p-1

5

Feb

-16

Jun

-16

Oct

-16

Feb

-17

Jul-1

7

No

v-17

Sugar - M-grade : Muzaffarnagar

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5) *

Higher acreage of sugarcane & expected rise in cane production for 2017-18 Bearish 20% 2

High sugar output expected in 2017-18 Bearish 35% 2

High seasonal demand of sugar Bullish 30% 4

Lower 2016-17 ending stocks season due to lower 2016-17 production Bullish 15% 4

Overall fundamental score 2.9

*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish

Fundamentals- Domestic & International

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

02-06-2017 26-05-2017 %Change

Muzzafarnagar 3915 3892.5 0.58

Kolhapur 3837 3847.5 -0.27

Delhi 3932.55 3920 0.32

Fundamentals- Domestic & International

SUGAR

Date: 14-11-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Price Trend & Technicals

2700

2930

3160

3390

3620

3850

4080

4310

Jan

-15

Ap

r-15

Au

g-1

5

No

v-15

Mar

-16

Jun

-16

Se

p-1

6

Jan

-17

Ap

r-17

Jul-1

7

No

v-17

Soybean : IndoreArrivals of new crop in the mandis is putting downward pressure on

the prices. We can expect prices to have support on Rs 2700.Any slip

below this level may give support to Rs 2550.However, good demand

at lower level and buying from stockiest at lower level may push the

market upward. Rs 3040 is the immediate resistance and till the time

it is not taken out convincingly we can expect prices to show range

bound movement.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

2550 2700 2768 3040 3155

Outlook: Prices may show movement within the range of Rs 2700 to Rs 3040.

• New crop arrivals are coming in the mandi and crop is condition is good. All

India arrivals are in the range of 7-8 lakh bags per day. However, many farmers

are holding their crop as current domestic prices are lower than MSP.

• In Madhya Pradesh, government is paying the difference between the MSP

and the traded price, in case of below MSP sales, directly to the farmers.

Minimum support price (MSP) of soybean is Rs 3050 per quintal. In

Maharashtra, government has ordered APMC to ensure that the traders do not

purchase commodities below the specified minimum support price.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

10-11-2017 03-11-2017 %Change

Indore 2768 2816 -1.70

Kota 2675 2727.5 -1.92

Nagpur 2807.8 2848.2 -1.42

• According to latest report of SOPA, India’s soybean production in 2017-18 is estimated at 9.145 million MT which is 16.80 per cent lower than

revised 2016-17 production estimate of 10.992 million MT. Reason for lower production estimate is the fall in acreage and reduced yield

conditions. For the current year, SOPA estimates yield at 901 kg per hectare, against 1,002 kg per hectare reported in 2016.

• As per first advance production estimate of 2017-18, India’s soybean production is estimated at 12.217 million metric tonne which is slightly lower

than fourth advance production estimate of 13.794 million metric tonne. However, market participants are estimating soybean production to be

around 9-10 million metric tonnes for 2017-18. Lower production estimate may have slightly bullish impact on the prices.

• India’s soymeal exports in the month of October 2017 were 47.219 thousand MT, lower by around 53.80 per cent as against of 102.212 thousand

MT in September 2017. India’s soymeal meal exports in the period April-October 2017 were 5.37 Lakh MT as against 1.07 Lakh MT during the same

period in 2016, an increase of 401.86 per cent. The increase in export of soybean oil meals is due to good monsoon, better oilseed production and

price parity.

• Soybean has shown firm movement in CBOT as harvesting in US is lagging 5-year average of 85 per cent and lower planting pace in Argentina and

Brazil. However, news of expected rains in the coming days may support the sowing process.

• China is expected to increase its oil import in 2017-18 to 95.97 MMT compared to previous estimate of 94.5 MMT.

• The overall fundamental score of 3.0 shows range bound movement in the coming days.

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5) *

New crop arrivals in domestic market Bearish 40% 2

Government intervention to support farmers Consolidation 20% 3

Lower production estimate Bullish 15% 4

Higher meal exports Bullish 15% 4

Firm movement in CBOT Bullish 10% 4

Overall fundamental score 3.0

*1-1.95: Bearish; 2-2.95: Marginal Bearish; 3: Consolidation; 3.05-3.95 Marginal Bullish; 4-5.Bullish

Fundamentals- Domestic & International SOYA BEAN

BACK TO TOP

Date: 14-11-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Price Trend &Technicals

3,500

3,750

4,000

4,250

4,500

4,750

5,000

5,250

Jun

-15

Au

g-1

5

Oct

-15

De

c-15

Feb

-16

May

-16

Jul-1

6

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p-1

6

No

v-16

Jan

-17

Ap

r-17

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

7

Oct

-17

Rapeseed & Mustard-Black - 42% oil content : Jaipur

The increase in MSP have given support to the mustard prices which

has shown slightly upward movement. Moreover, winter demand of

oil may give further support to the prices. First resistance level can

be at Rs 4100. Surpassing the first resistance, prices can move

towards second resistance of Rs 4175. However, higher production

estimate may put downward pressure on the prices. Moreover,

stockiest may release their stock at higher levels which may limit the

upward movement of the prices. Support can be seen at level of Rs

3900 and breach of this level may give support to the prices at Rs

3850.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

3850 3900 3989 4100 4175

Outlook: Prices may move slightly upward in the coming days.

• The government increased the minimum support price (MSP) of

mustard for the crop year 2017-18 to Rs 4000 per quintal from Rs

3700 per quintal. Despite in the increase in MSP, sowing acreage is

reported low due to deficit rainfall received in the monsoon and

farmers may switch to another competitive crop like chana and

moong.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

10-11-2017 03-11-2017 %Change

Jaipur 3988.9 3986.3 0.07

Alwar 3973.5 3973.5 0.00

Sriganga Nagar 3900 3875 0.65

• According to the latest sowing report as on 10th N0vember 2017, mustard crop sowing acreage is reported at 37.05 lakh hectares in 2017-18 which

is 3.54 per cent lower than the 2016-17 acreage of 28.41 lakh hectares at the same time period. Lower sowing acreage may have a marginal bullish

impact on the prices.

• As per first advance production estimate of 2017-18, India’s mustard production target is estimated at 8.1 million metric tonne which is 1.54 per

cent higher than last year fourth advance production estimate of 7.977 million metric tonne. Higher production estimate may have a marginal

bearish impact on the prices.

• India’s mustard meal exports in the month of October 2017 were 17.064 (provisional) thousand MT, lower by 73.41 per cent against 64.198

thousand MT in September 2017. Average FoB price of meal in October is recorded at $222 per tonne which is slightly lower than average price of

$236 per tonne in the month of September.

• Demand of mustard oil is higher than normal due to winter demand. Millers are also active in the market in anticipation of higher demand in the

coming winter.

• As per SEA recent data, rapeseed oil imports for period Nov. ‘16-Sept. ‘17 is recorded at 2.55 lakh tonnes which is 23.42 per cent lower than last

year import of 3.33 lakh tonnes in the same period. Higher domestic production estimate of mustard has made India less dependent on imports.

• India has frozen the request to commercially release a locally developed genetically modified (GM) mustard.

• The overall fundamental score of 3.2 shows range bound to slightly bullish movement in the coming days.

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)*

Increase in MSP Bullish 15% 4

Lower sowing acreage Bullish 15% 4

Higher production estimate Bearish 20% 2

Lower meal export Bearish 20% 2

Higher domestic winter demand of mustard oil Bullish 30% 4

Overall fundamental score 3.2

* 1. Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5.Bullish

Fundamentals- Domestic & International RM SEED

BACK TO TOP

Date: 14-11-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamentals- Domestic & International

Price Trend &Technicals

2800

3050

3300

3550

3800

4050

4300

4550

4800

Jan

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Ap

r-15

Jul-1

5

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p-1

5

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c-15

Mar

-16

Jun

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Se

p-1

6

No

v-16

Feb

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May

-17

Au

g-1

7

No

v-17

Castor - Deesa

CASTOR SEED

After taking some upward correction, prices are still moving in the

downward direction. As the standing crop condition is in good

condition and demand is also low, prices may further move

towards the first support level of Rs 4225. A decline below Rs 4225

may exert some more selling pressure on prices pulling it down

towards Rs 4135. However, as stockiest may not release their stock

at lower levels which may give support to the falling prices.

Resistance level can be seen at Rs 4585 level. Till the time prices

are trading below 4585 we do not expect any significant up move

to take place.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

4135 4225 4400 4585 4650

Outlook: undertone will remain weak till Rs 4585 level is not breached.

• According to the market participants, demand of castor from soap,

lubricant and paint industries is lower than normal. Lower demand is

putting weight on the domestic prices.

• However, stockiest are holding their stock as they are not ready to sell

at the lower levels.Farmers are also not selling their crop in the mandis

at lower levels and are holding their crop.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

10-11-2017 03-11-2017 %Change

Kadi 4360.8 4422 -1.38

Rajkot 4100 4175 -1.80

Deesa 4400 4469.8 -1.56

• According to the trade sources, standing castor crop is in good condition in Gujarat and Rajasthan and there is no news of any kind of crop

damage. Farmers are expecting normal yield this year.

• According to the government’s first advance estimate, Castor seed production is estimated at 13.96 lakh metric tonne for 2017-18 which is 1.76

per cent lower than the final production estimate of 14.21 lakh metric tonne of 2016-17. However, according to the report prepare by NCML,

castor seed production estimate for 2017 is 11.3 lakh tonnes which is slightly higher than last year production estimate of 10.65 lakh MT. Higher

production estimate is due to higher castor sowing acreage estimate and normal yield expectation.

• India’s castor meal exports in the month of October (provisional) were 3.326 thousand MT, lower by 96.05 per cent against 84.206 thousand

MT in September 2017.Average FoB price of castor meal in October has increased to $78 per tonne from $69 per tonne of September. India’s

castor meal exports in the period April-October 2017-18 were 3.02 lakh MT as against 2.53 Lakh MT during the same period in 2016-17.

• India’s castor oil export in the month of September is recorded at 44.591 thousand MT which is 3.90 percent higher than export of 42.917

thousand MT of August 2017. India’s castor oil exports in the period April-September 2017-18 were 2.70 lakh MT as against 2.40lakh MT during

the same period in 2016-17

• Overall score of 2.9 shows range bound to slightly weak movement in the coming days.

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)*

Lower demand from consuming industries Bearish 15% 2

Holding of stock by stockiest Bullish 20% 4

Favourable weather condition in Gujarat and Rajasthan

Bearish 25% 2

Govt’s lower production estimate Bullish 25% 4

Lower castor meal demand Bearish 15% 2

Overall fundamental score 2.9

*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5.Bullish

BACK TO TOP

Date: 14-11-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

x

Price Trend &Technicals

16,500.00

17,000.00

17,500.00

18,000.00

18,500.00

19,000.00

19,500.00

20,000.00

Jeera Price Trend: Unjha The depleting stocks position in the markets may trigger some

positive movements. The recovery in Jeera prices may resume if the

prices manage to move beyond 19467 and we may see prices

pushing towards 19748 levels as supply demand position is tight.

However, a decline from current levels may result at 19002 levels

and crack of it will result in prices touching 18818 levels as higher

Jeera acreage is reported in Gujarat. Sluggesh domestic and export

demand is not helping much but the tigh demand and supply

position is keeping the market sentiments underpinned.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

18818 19002 19185 19467 19748

Outlook: A recovery can push prices higher towards 19400-19750 mark.

• Weak price trend continued in spot and futures market as lower

demand against expectation of higher acreage during current season

kept the market sentiments down.

• As per Unjha based traders, this time of the year is considered as off

season since major participants avoid any bulk deals and opt to 'wait

and watch' policy as further market trend depends on the sowing

report. There are prospects of sowing to increase this year as farmers

can switch from Coriander to Jeera due to higher prices this year.

Mandi Jeera: Price in Rs/ Quintal

10-11-2017 03-11-2017 %Change

Unjha (NCDEX) 18808 18950 -0.74

Rajkot 17400 17300 0.57

Jodhpur 17500 17500 0.00

• According to market sources, demand is expected from China and Bangladesh and also demand is likely to firm up as supplies from Syria, Turkey

and Iran have remain low. Prices might firm up before the new crop arrivals begin in March owing to limited stocks and an empty supply pipeline.

• Sowing of Jeera has started in the major producing belts of Gujarat and Rajasthan but large number of farmers are still waiting for the

temperature to fall.

• As per latest report by Department of Agriculture Gujarat, Cumin acreage reported in the state was 23300 hectares as against just 3400 hectares

sown during same period last year. Cumin seed acreage is started in Banaskantha, Patan, Ahmedabad and Surendranagar districts.

• The Spices Board of India has estimated 2016-17 Cumin seed production at 4.85 lakh tonnes a decline of almost 4 per cent from last year

production of 5.03 lakh tonnes.

• According to the Department of Commerce, Cumin seed exports for Apri-August 2017 stood at 61,274.88 thousand tonnes as against 63,222.41

thousand tonnes in April-August 2016. Cumin seed exports in the month of August 2017 reported at 13,193.39 thousand tonnes as compared to

9,344.97 thousand tonnes in August 2016. According to market sources, India's exports of Jeera are likely to have risen two per cent on year

to 70,000 tonnes in April-September due to lower stocks in other major exporting nations.

• As on 12th November Jeera new stocks at NCDEX approved warehouses increased significantly at 6238 metric tonnes as compared to 1219 metric

tonnes same period last year.

• Fundamental score of 3.1 indicates that Jeera prices likely to be in consolidation as demand is expected to improve in coming days.

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)*

Higher acreage during current season Bearish 25% 2

Subdued buying from stockiest and traders Bearish 20% 2

Expectation of demand from overseas Bullish 20% 4

Buying at lower levels Bullish 20% 4

Lower production in 2016-17 Bullish 15% 4

Overall fundamental score 3.1

*1.Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5.Bullish

Fundamentals- Domestic &International JEERA

BACK TO TOP

Date: 14-11-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Price Trend &Technicals

4,500.00

5,000.00

5,500.00

6,000.00

6,500.00

7,000.00

7,500.00

8,000.00

15

-No

v-1

6

15

-Dec

-16

15

-Jan

-17

15

-Feb

-17

15

-Mar

-17

15

-Ap

r-1

7

15

-May

-17

15

-Ju

n-1

7

15

-Ju

l-1

7

15

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g-1

7

15

-Sep

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15

-Oct

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15

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v-1

7

Turmeric Price Trend: NizamabadSluggesh domestic and export demand will continue to pressurize

priecs in near term. Availability of sufficient stocks will also keep a

check on any significant uptrend. Prices might get good support at

6744 levels on the lower side but breake of that will result in 6574

level. However, buying at lower levels may push turmeric prices at

7204 levels and if export and domestic demand picks up than we

may see prices level touching 7494 in coming days.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

6574 6744 7000 7204 7494

Outlook: Turmeric prices will trade sideways within the range of 6744 to 7204 levels.

Fundamentals- Domestic & International TURMERIC

• Turmeric prices in spot markets across the country and also in futures

remained range bound with mostly weak tone on subdued demand

against sufficient supplies. Buyers in markets were expecting strong

demand from north India.

• As per traders from Nizamabad, uncertainity is looming on prospects of

Turmeric outlook as it is impacted first by GST and then availability of

heavy stockpile.

• Turmeric prices are expected to trade sideways to down as sufficient

stock is available in the market followed by 48,500 MT with Andhra

Pradesh Markfed which they earlier procured in the month of May 2017.

Mandi Turmeric: Price in Rs/ Quintal

10-11-2017 03-11-2017 % change

Nizamabad 7340 7333 0.09

Sangli 8225 8325 -1.20

Salem 8400 8200 2.43

• According to the Department of Agriculture Andhra Pradesh, as on 04th October Turmeric acreage in the state stood at 14832 hectares as

against 16572 hectares last year same period. The seasonal normal acreage is 17695 hectares.

• As per the Telangana Agriculture Department, Turmeric acreage as on 27th September 2017 was reported lower at 0.45 lakh hectares as

compared to 0.46 lakh hectares same period last year.The seasonal normal acreage is 0.47 lakh hectares.

• As per market sources, in Tamil Nadu Turmeric growing regions still no rainfall reported only coastal regions received rainfall. Turmeric farmers

were waiting for rainfall as standing crop requires 2–3 times rainfall till 15th December for better yield otherwise yield might get affected.

• As per the Spices Board of India, Turmeric production in 2016-17 in the country estimated at 10,51,160 tonnes as against 9,67,060 tonnes in 2015-

16. Acreage under Turmeric in 2016-17 was 1,93,390 hectares in 2016-17.

• According to the Department of Commerce, Turmeric exports during April to August 2017 declined by almost 14 per cent at 51,226.92 metric

tonnes as compared to 59,319.81 metric tonnes in April to August 2016. Turmeric exports to Iran stood at 7136 tonnes, UAE 3660 tonnes,

Bangladesh 3123 tonnes and USA 3447 tonnes. Turmeric exports in the month of August 2017 was 7,669.05 tonnes as against 9,638.53 tonnes

in August 2016. India exported 125,536.43 metric tonnes of Turmeric in 2016-17.

• As on 12th November 2017 Turmeric stocks at NCDEX warehouses declined at 1031 tonnes as compared to 2649 tonnes same period last year.

• Fundamental score of 2.9 indicates that Turmeric prices would be trading in range bound manner with slight bearish tone.

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)*

Subdued domestic and export demand Bearish 25% 2

Buying at lower levels Bullish 20% 4

Lower exports from India Bearish 15% 2

Higher production in 2016-17 Bearish 15% 2

Expectation of demand from North India Bullish 25% 4

Overall fundamental score 2.9

* 1. Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5.Bullish

BACK TO TOP

Date: 14-11-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

• India’s sugar production is set to bounce back from a seven-year low News Link

• Led by rice and pulses, rabi acreage up 18.5% to 163 lakh hectares News Link

• Onion export jumps 56% in Apr-July, but India now importing News Link

• Government to dispose of 5 lakh tons of pulses buffer stock by March News Link

• Govt to use pulses from buffer stock for welfare schemes News Link

• Maharashtra farmers looking to sell 2 mt cane to mills in North Karnataka News Link

• Fumigation norms tightened to curb pulses import News Link

• Agri sector's contribution to GDP up by 2% News Link

• Integrated sugar mills to benefit from 5% rise in ethanol procurement price for 2017-18: ICRA News Link

• Rice price may surge as Chhattisgarh govt announces bonus on paddy News Link

• Trade ministers agree Asia-Pacific trade pact without US News Link

• FSSAI launches logo for organic food products News Link

• At $1.4 trn, world's food import bill in 2017 to be second-highest ever: UN News Link

• Exports to China surge 39 per cent but trade deficit widens News Link

News corner

OFFICIAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES

First advance estimates 2017-18 &

previous years’ estimates :

First Advance Estimates 2017-18

Link for commodity-wise and

market-wise prices and arrivals:

http://agmarknet.gov.in/PriceAndArrivals/

CommodityWiseDailyReport2.aspx

MSP in Rs /Qtl- Kharif 2017-18

Commodity 2016-17 2017-18

Paddy Common 1470 1550

paddy grade A 1510 1590

Jowar Hybrid 1625 1700

Jowar Maldandi 1650 1725

Bajra 1330 1425

Ragi 1725 1900

Maize 1365 1425

Tur 5050 5450*

Moong 5225 5575*

Urad 5000 5400*

Groundnut 4220 4450*

Sunflower seed 3950 4100 #

Soyabean black 2775 3050

Sesamum 5000 5300 #

Nigerseed 3825 4050 #

Cotton(Medium Staple) 3680 4020

Cotton(Long Staple) 4160 4320

MSP in Rs /Qtl- Rabi 2017-18

Commodity 2016-17 2017-18

Wheat 1625 1735

Barley 1325 1410

Gram 4000* 4400

Masur (Lentil) 3950* 4250

Rapeseed/Mustard 3700* 4000

Safflower 3700* 4100

Wheat 1625 1735

*includes bonus of Rs 200 per quintal

# includes bonus of Rs 100 per quintal

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.

-4.9

-2.5

-0.4

-3.0

-1.1

-1.7

0.1

-0.8

0.1

-1.6

0.1

-0.75

-9.0 -7.0 -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 1.0

Chana

Tur

Wheat

Maize

Guar

Soya

Mustard

Cotton

Sugar

Castor

Turmeric

Jeera

% age change since 03rd November 2017

Date: 14-11-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Sowing progress: Rabi 2017-18- LINK

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Date: 14-11-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Answers of NCoMM report dated 7 November 2017:

1. Chickpea

2. Chilli

3. Gram/Chana

The following people gave correct answers:

Anilkumar Parvathaneni Abinandhan Ramamoorthy bichhanda kumar sahoo Praveen Kumar Mundra Amit Kumar Riteshkumar Sahu s.Narendra RITESH BALPANDE sonu chauhan Sushil Kumar Sharma Yadbir Singh Jyoti Chauhan pravendra singh rawat Shiv Singh Dhaked Adarsh Sharma Akshay Thoravashe Gautam Vashistha Sandipkumar Nayak Pankaj Paliwal Dr. Raina Jain

Jita Behera Manish Meena Manish meena Som Dutt Sharma hemant upadhyay Deepak saini Anurag Kushwaha Adarsh Sharma Arun kumar Ranjit Pradhan amit thakkar Vijay Gupta ANJALI Manish kumar rohilla RAHUL GAUTAM Surya narayan Dash Mukesh Basetia Ravi tanwar Amit Gangadhar Ram kumar

LUCKY WINNER :

Dr. Raina Jain

Date: 14-11-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Advisory Team

Basant Vaid Head: TCIG basant.v@ncml.com

Sreedhar Nandam Vice President: SCM sreedhar.n@ncml.com

Research Team

Suresh Solanki Assistant Manager: TCIG suresh.s@ncml.com

Kamna Malhotra Economist: TCIG kamna.m@ncml.com

Akash Jaiswal Research Analyst: TCIG akash.j@ncml.com

Ansh Aggarwal Senior Officer: Trade Support ansh.a@ncml.com

For any research queries, contact us at research@ncml.com

STOCK

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possession of the report may not rely on its conclusions without the written consent of NCML. NCML has exercised reasonable care and skill in

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implied, is made in relation to this report. Therefore, NCML assumes no liability for any loss resulting from errors, omissions or

misrepresentations made by others. Any recommendations, opinions and findings stated in this report are based on circumstances and facts as

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any recommendations, opinions or findings contained in this report.

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