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Date: 12-06-2017 NCML Commodity Market Monitor Home CONTENTS Outlook Wheat Chana Guarseed Paddy Urad Maize Other data Sowing progress: Kharif 2017-18 Monsoon Probabilities State wise procurement for RMS 2017-18 Stock limits of States/UTs

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Page 1: NCML Commodity Market Monitor Date: 12-06-2017 · 2017-09-06 · Date: 12-06-2017 NCML Commodity Market Monitor High maize production in 2016 Rabi crop lower in South India Mandi

Date: 12-06-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Home

CONTENTS

Outlook

• Wheat

• Chana

• Guarseed

• Paddy

• Urad

• Maize

Other data

• Sowing progress: Kharif 2017-18

• Monsoon Probabilities

• State wise procurement for RMS

2017-18

• Stock limits of States/UTs

Page 2: NCML Commodity Market Monitor Date: 12-06-2017 · 2017-09-06 · Date: 12-06-2017 NCML Commodity Market Monitor High maize production in 2016 Rabi crop lower in South India Mandi

Date: 12-06-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Price Trend & Technicals

1500

1700

1900

2100

2300

2500

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Ap

r-16

May

-16

Jul-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Oct

-16

De

c-16

Jan

-17

Mar

-17

Ap

r-17

Jun

-17

Wheat: Standard mill quality : Delhi

Increased offtake by flour mills have given some support to the

otherwise bearish wheat prices. Prices have seemingly formed

floor aroung Rs 1705 and are trading sustainably above it. Prices

have just surpassed the minor resistance of Rs 1750 and till the time

it slips bleow that once again some values buying can be seen

pushing prices a tad higher towards the resistance range of Rs 1775-

1800. The loger term trend is still bearish and any recovery from

here will be contained around 1800 mark and is unlikely to sustain

for long period.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

1705 1720 1760 1775 1800

Outlook: Till the time prices are trading above Rs 1750 a move towards Rs 1775-1800 can be seen.

• Wheat prices have turned bearish in most Indian markets reflecting the 2017

bumper harvest and large levels of imports in recent months. The prices are

finding some support due to an increased offtake by flour mills.

• Wheat procurement in the current marketing season has crossed the 300 lakh

tonnes figure. As of 6th June 2017, the number stands at 301.01 lakh tonnes (FCI)

of the 330 lakh tonnes targeted for procurement this season against to 230 lakh

tonnes procured in the previous season.

Mandi Price in Rs/Quintal

09-06-2017 02-06-2017 % change

Delhi 1754.05 1746.7 0.42

Kota 1625.3 1612.5 0.79

Kanpur 1584 1574 0.64

• In Punjab, 117.05 lakh tonnes (Lt) wheat has been procured till 25th May 2017 which has exceeded the target of 115 Lt. In Haryana 74.11 Lt, close to

the target of 75 LT; in MP 67.24 Lt against target of 85 Lt ; and in UP 30.74 Lt against the target of 30 Lt.

• Despite the bumper harvest FAO forecasts India’s wheat imports in the 2017/18 marketing year (April/March) at 2.5 million tonnes against record

high 5 million tonnes imported in 2016/17 uptil April (total imports may touch 6 mn tonnes).

• The imports have now slowed down given the increased domestic availability. The millers are preferring domestic wheat which is of good quality

& wheat inventories of a record 1.8 mn tonnes, imported from Australia & Black Sea region in anticipation of high demand, are lying unsold at ports.

• Wheat exports in 2017/18 are projected at 500 000 tonnes, close to the 2016 reduced level and significantly below the previous three-year average

of 3.6 million tonnes.

• India’s wheat arrivals for the period 25th May till 5th june (AGMARKNET) stood at 806664.7 tonnes this year, higher by around 11% over 724333.8

tonnes arrived last year for the same period. The bumper harvest is expected to replenish the domestic stocks which had fallen to a record low of

9.43 mt at previous season’s ending from 16.87 mn tonnes at the beginning of it.

• In its third advance estimates, the government has pegged India’s 2016-17 wheat production at a record high of 97.44 million tonnes, 5.6% higher

than 92.29 million tonnes in 2015-16, on back of a 7 percent year-on-year expansion of the area to 31.8 million hectares, good monsoon and

favourable temperatures during harvest.

• Wheat prices have gone up on international exchanges this week in response to the dry weather seen hitting U.S., Canadian spring wheat crop.

• The International Grains Council’s estimate for 2017-18 world’s wheat production stands at 736 mn tonnes down from previous year’s 753 mn tonnes

due to lower acreages.

• An overall fundamental score of 2.7 shows bearishness in wheat prices due to the bumper wheat crop in India.

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)*

Bumper wheat harvest Bearish 30% 2

Increased offtake by the flour mills Bullish 25% 4

Arrivals going strong Bearish 20% 2

High imports durig the year; which have now slowed down due to increased domestic availability of good quality wheat

Consolidation 10% 3

Record low ending stocks Bullish 10% 2

Dry weather affecting US and Canada’s spring winter crop Bullish 5% 4

Overall fundamental score 2.7

* 1. Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5.Bullish

Fundamentals- Domestic & International WHEAT

BACK TO TOP

Page 3: NCML Commodity Market Monitor Date: 12-06-2017 · 2017-09-06 · Date: 12-06-2017 NCML Commodity Market Monitor High maize production in 2016 Rabi crop lower in South India Mandi

Date: 12-06-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamentals- Domestic & International PADDY

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)*

Resurging export demand from Bangladesh, Philippines and African countries

Bullish 25% 4

Arrivals wearing out Bullish 20% 4

Record high rice production in 2016-17 Bearish 30% 2

Higher sowing for 2017-18 Bearish 10% 2

Demand from millers and exporters Bullish 15% 4

Overall fundamental score 3.2

*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5.Bullish

• India’s paddy acreage is set to rise this year due to good price realisation by

farmers in 2016-17. In line with the expections, the initial sowing updates

show that till 9 June paddy was sown in __ hac as compared to __ sown in

2016-17 till the same date. Rainfall this week in Haryana has given momentum

to paddy sowing the state.

• Latest statistics show that India managed to export 5.2 million tonnes of rice

during Oct 2016 to Mar 2017, against 4.8 million tonnes for the corresponding

period last year due to resurgence of export demand from African countries

and Bangladesh. However India's non-basmati rice exports in April fell 18.5

percent from a year ago to 475,050 tonnes due to a stronger rupee.

Mandi Paddy 1121: Price in Rs/ Quintal

09-06-2017

02-06-2017

% change

Hanumangarh(1121 Pusa)

3075 3100 -0.81

Basti (Sambha) 1738.3 1618.5 7.40

Vellore 1636 1750 -6.51

• Currently, Bangladesh is ramping up its imports to build reserves and rein in local prices after flash floods hit domestic its output. Bangladesh is

set to import 250,000 tonnes of rice from Vietnam in a government-to-government deal, as part of an effort to build reserves, which are at 10-

year lows. It is also in talks with India and Thailand. The Philippines has also said it would issue a tender next month to import 250,000 tonnes

of the grain from Thailand and Vietnam, and possibly also India. In the last few weeks demand has risen from African buyers too.

• The incoming export demand is prompting many Indian buyers to increase purchases even though an stronger rupee is trimming their returns.

At current levels, exports are competitive due to rise in prices of Thailand and Vietnam.

• Prices of Thai rice hit their highest in nearly four years while those of the Vietnamese grain rose to their strongest in more than two years on

strong demand from key importing countries. Prices are expected to rise further.

• India’s paddy 2016-17 production is estimated at a record high of 109.15 mn tonnes, up 4.5% from last year’s 104.41 mn tonnes. The kharif

production this year was 96.09 mn tonnes against 91.41 mn tonnes last year. Rabi production however stands flat at 13.06 mn tonnes.

• As on 6 June 2017, 377.96 lakh MT of rice has been procured exceeding the procurement of corresponding period last year by over 13%.

• Rice arrivals are now wearing out and the the prices will be firm in response to higher demand from exporters.

• Overall fundamental score of 3.2 reflects bullish undertone in rice prices.

After touching recent low of Rs 2880, paddy prices in Narela mandi

have sown some recovery. Resurging export demand and lower

arrivals may further push prices towards the range of Rs 3200-3300.

However, prices may not breach resistance level of Rs 3500 due to

competitive prices of Thailand and Vietnam and stronger rupee

appreciation against dollar which might limit the export demand.

Paddy prices are expected to move in the range of Rs 2900 to Rs 3200

in the coming days.

Price Trend & Technicals

1500.00

1750.00

2000.00

2250.00

2500.00

2750.00

3000.00

3250.00

3500.00

3750.00

May

-16

Jul-1

6

Au

g-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Oct

-16

No

v-16

De

c-16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar

-17

May

-17

Paddy : 1121 : Narela

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

2800 2880 3100 3300 3500

Outlook: Prices may move in the range of Rs 2900 to Rs 3200.

BACK TO TOP

Page 4: NCML Commodity Market Monitor Date: 12-06-2017 · 2017-09-06 · Date: 12-06-2017 NCML Commodity Market Monitor High maize production in 2016 Rabi crop lower in South India Mandi

Date: 12-06-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

• Initial sowing updates show that as on 6 June 2017, Maize was sown in __ ha against

___ ha till the same time last year. Maize acreage is expected to be higher in 2017-

18 due to decent price realisation by farmer in the previous year and a normal

monsoon forecast.

• India’ rabi maize arrivals for the period 18th May till 8th june (AGMARKNET) stood at

175642.4 tonnes this year, 15% higher than 153364.3 tonnes last year for the same period.

• The rabi maize production in the state of Bihar is higher by about 16% as compared

to the previous year and the arrivals are coming in strong. Recent rains in maize

growing regions of Bihar have dampened the harvest slightly and the increased the

moisture content in the crop.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

09-06-2017 02-06-2017 % change

Gulabbagh 1260 1265.65 -0.45

Nizamabad 1512.5 1516.5 -0.26

Delhi 1345 1425 -5.61

• According to the third advance estimates released by the government, India’s maize production 2016-17 stands at 26.14 mn MT, up almost 19% from

the previous year’s 22.57 mn MT. The kharif maize harvest was 19.17 mn MT as against only 16.05 mn MT in the previous year. Rabi harvest was 6.97

mn MT, slightly higher than last year’s 6.51 mn MT affected by bad rains in the southern India.

• Demand from the feed industry in India currently is subdued which is weighing down the prices.

• In the latest IGC report, world corn production forecast for 2017-18 has been put at 1.026 billion tonnes. It rose in 2016-17 to 1.059 billion tonnes as

compared to 973.9 million tonnes in 2015-16.

• The June 5 USDA Crop Progress shows farmers have planted 96% of the corn acres, down 1% from the four year average of 97%. 86% of the corn

planted across these 18 states has emerged. That’s down 1% from the four year average. Current report shows 58% of the crop in good condition

and 10% is rated excellent. Last year at this time, 61% of the corn planted was in good condition and 14% was in excellent condition.

• China slased its 2017/18 corn output forecast to 211.65 million tonnes, 3.6% below last year, and the lowest level in four years after drought and hail

hit planting in the northeastern region of one of the world's top producers, spurring a rally in futures prices.

• India’s maize exports in 2016-17 have been estimated 6 lakh MT, against 5.12 lakh MT in the previous year. In 2014-15, exports were 11.62 lakh MT.

The exports have fallen due to export disparity with other global exporters. Global prices of maize have weakened due to higher carryover stocks.

• Overall fundamental score of 2.6 indicates bearishness in maize prices.

Price Trend & Technicals

1350

1430

1510

1590

1670

Ap

r-16

May

-16

Jun

-16

Jul-1

6

Au

g-1

6

Oct

-16

No

v-16

De

c-16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Ap

r-17

May

-17

Jun

-17

Maize-Feed/Industrial Grade : Delhi

Higher domestic and global production this year have taken a toll on

maize prices. Export disparity due to higher global production has

continued to exert pressure on the prices. In the coming days, prices

are expected to be bearish till the first support level of Rs 1300.

Breaching the first support level, prices may further move down to

Rs 1260. However, prices may hold within the range of Rs 1300-1320

as rabi crop arrivals are nearing their end.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

1260 1300 1360 1415 1435

Outlook: Prices may show bearish movement till the support level of Rs 1300.

Fundamentals- Domestic & International MAIZE

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5) *

High maize production in 2016-17 and ongoing rabi arrivals in Bihar Bearish 35% 2

Rabi crop lower in South India due to drought Bullish 25% 4

Lack of recovery in exports over the year due to export disparity Bearish 15% 2

Subdued industrial feed demand Bearish 20% 2

Rainfall in Bihar which might affect the last phase of harvest and increase crop moisture content

Bullish 5% 4

Overall fundamental score 2.6

*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5.Bullish

BACK TO TOP

Page 5: NCML Commodity Market Monitor Date: 12-06-2017 · 2017-09-06 · Date: 12-06-2017 NCML Commodity Market Monitor High maize production in 2016 Rabi crop lower in South India Mandi

Date: 12-06-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamentals- Domestic & International

Price Trend & Technicals

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

Ap

r-16

May

-16

Jun

-16

Jul-1

6

Au

g-1

6

Oct

-16

No

v-16

De

c-16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar

-17

May

-17

Jun

-17

Chana - Rajasthani desi : Bikaner

CHANA

Lifting of the stock limits on pulses, has had a monor positive effect

on the prices as they recovered from the lows of Rs 4800 to settle

the week at Rs 5175 in the Bikaner mandi. The prices are trading in

a broad range of Rs 4800-5650 since February. Close proximity with

the lower band of the range attracts buying sentiments and sellers

are encouraged near the upper range. As the prices have once again

reversed from the lower band, the chances of some more recovery

pusing prices firstly towards Rs 5240 and towards Rs 5500 on a

conclusive breach of Rs 5240 are high.

Support still stands strong at Rs 5210-5200 and resistance at Rs

5650-5700. The prices will hover within this band in the coming

week as well with no significant either side movement.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

4800 4850 5175 5240 5500

Outlook: Prices will rocover some more towards Rs5240 & then towards Rs 5500.

• Demand of chana from millers and traders are higher due to Ramzan.

In Ramzan days, consumption of chana and chana products like besan

increases. Higher domestic demand may have a slightly bullish impact

on the prices.

• Till 05th June, Nafed had procured around 44.80 thousand tonnes of

chana. Procurement of chana by Nafed is being made at prevailing

market prices in states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar

Pradesh. Procurement activity may not let prices to show sharp

downward movement.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

09-06-2017 02-06-2017 % change

Delhi 5300 5300 0.00

Jaipur 5300 5200 1.92

Bikaner 5187.5 5025 3.23

• As of 08th June, Australian chana is being traded at Rs 5600-56500 per quintal in Mumbai market. Australian chickpea of October- November

delivery is being offered at Rs 5175 at Mumbai port. Australian new crop arrivals are expected to come in November – December month putting

downward pressure on the prices.

• According to DGFT, India chana imports are recorded at 10.80 Lakh metric tonnes from in 2016-17 which is around 4 per cent higher than last year

imports of 10.31 lakh metric tonnes in 2015-16. Despite higher production estimate this year imports were higher due to lower prices of imported

chana. Regular imports of chana may have a slightly bearish impact on the prices.

• Maharashtra government has lifted the stock limit on pulses except chana. However, the Central government has directed state governments

to lift stockholding limits on all pulses. Removal of stock limit might push the spot market upwards as market participants can stock more pulses.

• India chana production estimate has been decreased by 0.43 percent to 9.08 MMT in third advance estimates as against second advance

estimate of 9.12 MMT for 2016-17. However, trade sources are estimating 8.3-8.5 MMT of chana this year. Last year chana production estimate

was 7.06 MMT. Higher production estimate compared to last year will continue to put chana prices under pressure.

• Overall score of 3.2 shows range bound with slightly firm movement in the coming days.

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)*

Higher domestic demand Bullish 25% 4

Continuous procurement activity Bullish 20% 4

Lower forward import contract Bearish 15% 2

Higher imports Bearish 15% 2

Removal of stock limit Bullish 15% 4

Higher domestic production Bearish 10% 2

Overall fundamental score 3.2

*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5.Bullish

BACK TO TOP

Page 6: NCML Commodity Market Monitor Date: 12-06-2017 · 2017-09-06 · Date: 12-06-2017 NCML Commodity Market Monitor High maize production in 2016 Rabi crop lower in South India Mandi

Date: 12-06-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Price Trend &Technicals

Higher production estimate and regular imports from Myanmar

continue to put downward pressure on the prices. However,

removal of stock limit from pulses may give support to the prices in

the range of Rs 4300-4500. Lower sowing acreage expectation this

year and holding of stocks from traders may give firmness to the

spot prices and we can expect some northward movement from

support range of Rs 4300-4500 to Rs 5000-5200. Moreover, Madhya

Pradesh government’s decision not allowing buying below MSP

might give support to the prices.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

4300 4500 4650 5500 5700

Outlook: Prices may show some recovery towards range of Rs 5000-5200.

• As oF 2nd June 2017, all India Kharif urad sowing is reported at 0.37

lakh hectares which is 15.62 percent higher than the same time

period last year of 0.32 lakh hectares. Sowing in major producing

regions like Madhya Pradesh,Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra is

yet to start.

• However, market participants are estimating slightly lower

sowing acreage this year due to lower return to the farmers this

year.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

09-06-2017 02-06-2017 % change

Agra 5040 5300 -4.91

Junagadh 4750 4550 4.40

Kota 4800 4450 7.87

• Government has revised the MSP of kharif pulses on higher side in order to increase the sowing acreage. Urad MSP has been increased from Rs

5000 to Rs 5400 per quintal with a bonus of Rs 200.

• According to the market participants, urad stocks in the domestic markets is lower than normal.Moreover,stockiest are also holding urad stocks

in expectation of getting higher prices in future.

• According to the trade sources, Burma urad FAQ is trading in the range of Rs 4600-4700 per quintal at Mumbai port as on 9th June. Regular

imports from Burma may have a slightly bullish impact on the prices.

• According to DGFT, India urad/moong imports are recorded at 5.73 Lakh metric tonnes in 2016-17 which is around 1.37 per cent lower than 2015-

16 imports of 5.81 lakh metric tonnes.

• India urad production estimate has slightly increased by 1.38 percent to 2.93 MMT in third advance estimate as against second advance estimate

of 2.89 MMT for 2016-17. Last year urad production estimate was 1.95 MMT. Higher production estimate as compare to last year may have a

bearish impact on the prices.

• Overall score of 3.2 shows range bound movement with slightly bullish undertone.

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)*

Lower sowing acreage expectation Bullish 20% 4

Increase in MSP Bullish 15% 4

Lower stocks Bullish 25% 4

Regular Imports Bearish 20% 2

Higher production estimate Bearish 20% 2

Overall fundamental score 3.2

*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5.Bullish

Fundamentals- Domestic & International URAD

3500

5500

7500

9500

11500

13500

01-

Oct

-15

01-

De

c-15

01-

Feb

-16

01-

Ap

r-16

01-

Jun

-16

01-

Au

g-1

6

01-

Oct

-16

01-

De

c-16

01-

Feb

-17

01-

Ap

r-17

01-

Jun

-17

Urad : Mumbai

BACK TO TOP

Page 7: NCML Commodity Market Monitor Date: 12-06-2017 · 2017-09-06 · Date: 12-06-2017 NCML Commodity Market Monitor High maize production in 2016 Rabi crop lower in South India Mandi

Date: 12-06-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Sluggish overseas demand fror guargum coupled with expectation of

better produation in the coming year on account of expected good

rainfall in the producing region will keep the guarseed prices

dampened in the coming days as well. The recent sharp fall will

extend and will probably enter the support range of Rs 3200-3160 in

the coming weeks. That level might arrest the falling prices for

sometime. Chances of any sharp recovery in prices is unlikely

however resistance is seen at Rs 3350 which once broken can infuse

some more positivity towards Rs3480.

2,800

3,000

3,200

3,400

3,600

3,800

4,000

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

Ap

r-16

May

-16

Jun

-16

Jul-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Oct

-16

No

v-16

De

c-16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar

-17

May

-17

Jun

-17

Guarseed-Average : Bikaner

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

3160 3200 3305 3350 3480

Outlook: Price will slip further towards the support range of Rs 3200-3160.

• Guar seed and Guar gum futures continued to plunge in the spot and

futures market after India Meteorological Department scaled up the

monsoon forecast at 98 per cent of long period average from 96 per

cent predicted earlier.

• Crushers are not buying much due to subdued demand in Guar gum

from overseas markets. Guar seed prices are likely to remain under

pressure as good rainfall in Guar growing belts will raise prospects of

better production despite expectations of some losses in acreage.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

09-06-2017 02-06-2017 %change

Bikaner 3300 3377.5 -2.29

Jodhpur 3391.65 3450 -1.69

Sri Ganga Nagar 3184 3320 -4.10

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)*

Higher monsoon rainfall forecast Bearish 20% 2

Subdued domestic demand Bearish 25% 2

Improved buying at lower levels Bullish 25% 4

Lower exports of Guar Bearish 15% 3

Expectation of higher acreage Bearish 15% 3

Overall fundamental score 2.8

*1. Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish

Fundamentals- Domestic & International

Price Trend &Technicals

GUAR SEED

• According to market players, movement in Guar seed is now dependent on monsoon and Guar seed sowing progress. However, buying inquiries

may improve at lower levels.

• Guar seed sowing is likely to start soon in Rajasthan. According to preliminary reports from the farmers, acreage might to drop in the state due

to poor prices in the last few years.

• Guargum export was better in recent months, but didn't reflected on prices due to ample stock and forecast of normal monsoon. Though the

demand in Guar gum last fiscal year 2016-17 (April-March) was better, but not enough to lift market due to higher Guar seed supply. India Guar

gum exports during FY 2016-17 rose 30 per cent at 4.23 lakh tonnes against 3.25 lakh tonnes a year ago. The Industry source believes that Guar

gum shipment will be higher due to rise in crude oil amid agreement between major oil producing nations to cut production.

• As per the Department of Agriculture Rajasthan 2nd advanced estimates for 2016-17 Guar seed production is estimated to decline at 14.25 lakh

tonnes as against 22.23 lakh tonnes in 2015-16.

• Stock position of Guar seed as on 08th June stood at 19,533 tonnes and Guar gum at 25,632 tonnes.

• Overall fundamental score of 2.8 indicates that Guar seed will be on the downside.

BACK TO TOP

Page 8: NCML Commodity Market Monitor Date: 12-06-2017 · 2017-09-06 · Date: 12-06-2017 NCML Commodity Market Monitor High maize production in 2016 Rabi crop lower in South India Mandi

Date: 12-06-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

• Wheat purchases exceed 30 million tonnes News Link

• Time to start planning for a cotton glut News Link

• Met Office updates monsoon forecast to 98% of normal News Link

• Oilmeal exports surge 75% in April-May News Link

• Industry demands higher duties on imported edible oils News Link

• Centre says sugar cess will come to an end with GST rollout News Link

• Lower prices to cut chilli acreage in coming season News Link

• India’s edible oil security at risk: SEA News Link

• Groundnut will be the star of the show this kharif in Gujarat News Link

• E-trading platform helps Karnataka farmers earn 38 percent more income. News Link

• Government okays kharif MSP; decision secret amid farmers protest News Link

• Short-term outlook for NCDEX-Jeera is bullish News Link

• Pepper slips on crash in Vietnam prices News Link

• USDA maintains forecast for 2017-’18 corn production News Link

• Slight risein world wehat supplies - USDA News Link

0.0 5.2

-0.8

0.8

0.4

2.3

0.0

-0.1

-1.07420814

5

0.0

1.0

-1.59520651

4

0.5

0.0

-9.0 -4.0 1.0 6.0

Chana

Tur

Wheat

Paddy

Maize

Guar

Soya

Mustard

Turmeric

Cotton

Sugar

Jeera

Mentha oil

Castor

% age change since 2 June 2017

News corner

OFFICIAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES

Third advance estimates 2016-17 & previous years’ estimates :

Third Advance Estimates

Link for commodity-wise and

market-wise prices and arrivals:

http://agmarknet.gov.in/PriceAndArrival

s/CommodityWiseDailyReport2.aspx

MSP

Commodity Variety MSP 2015-16 (inclusive

of bonus)Rs/Qtl MSP 2016-17 (inclusive

of bonus) Rs/Qtl

Wheat - 1525 1625

Paddy Common 1410 1470

Jowar

Grade A 1450 1510

Hybrid 1570 1625

Bajra

Maldandi 1590 1650

- 1275 1330

Maize - 1325 1365

Ragi - 1650 1725

Tur - 4625 5050

Moong - 4850 5225

Masur (Lentil) - 3400 3950

RM Seed - 3350 3700

Barley 1225 1325

Safflower 3300 3700

Gram 3500 4000

Soyabean* Yellow 2600 2775

Sunflower Seed - 3800 3950

Nigerseed - 3650 3825

Sesamum - 4700 5000

Cotton Med. Staple 3800 3860

Long Staple 4100 4160

Groundnut - 4030 4220

Urad - 4625 5000

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MONSOON PROBABILITIES- IMD

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Date: 12-06-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Sowing progress: Kharif 2017-18- PIB

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Date: 12-06-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Procurement of Chana and Masur in RMS 2017-18

SOURCE: FCI

State wise procurement of Wheat for RMS 2017-18 - FCI

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SOURCE: FCI

Page 11: NCML Commodity Market Monitor Date: 12-06-2017 · 2017-09-06 · Date: 12-06-2017 NCML Commodity Market Monitor High maize production in 2016 Rabi crop lower in South India Mandi

Date: 12-06-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Link for the pdf of STOCK LIMITS FIXED BY STATES/UT

http://consumeraffairs.nic.in/WriteReadData/userfiles/file/Stock_limit_Mar2017.pdf

STOCK

Stock limits of States/UTs

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Page 12: NCML Commodity Market Monitor Date: 12-06-2017 · 2017-09-06 · Date: 12-06-2017 NCML Commodity Market Monitor High maize production in 2016 Rabi crop lower in South India Mandi

Date: 12-06-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Advisory Team

Basant Vaid Head: TCIG [email protected]

Sreedhar Nandam Vice President: SCM [email protected]

Research Team

Suresh Solanki Assistant Manager: TCIG [email protected]

Kamna Malhotra Economist: TCIG [email protected]

Akash Jaiswal Research Analyst: TCIG [email protected]

Ansh Aggarwal Senior Officer: Trade Support [email protected]

For any research queries, contact us at [email protected]

Disclaimer:

This consultancy report has been prepared by National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCML) for the sole benefit of the addressee.

Neither the report nor any part of the report shall be provided to third parties without the written consent of NCML. Any third party in possession

of the report may not rely on its conclusions without the written consent of NCML. NCML has exercised reasonable care and skill in preparation

of this consultancy report but has not independently verified information provided by others. No other warranty, express or implied, is made in

relation to this report. Therefore, NCML assumes no liability for any loss resulting from errors, omissions or misrepresentations made by others.

Any recommendations, opinions and findings stated in this report are based on circumstances and facts as they existed at the time of preparation

of this report. Any change in circumstances and facts on which this report is based may adversely affect any recommendations, opinions or

findings contained in this report.

© National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCML) 2017

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