Date: 22/01/2019 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

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NCML COMMODITY MARKET MONITOR

Cotton|Sugar|Soybean|RM Seed| Castor seed|Turmeric | Jeera

OUTLOOK

OTHER DATA Sowing progress| Advance estimates |Kharif and rabiMSP

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Castor | RM Seed | Turmeric

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NCML COMMODITY MARKET MONITOR NCoMM

Date: 22/01/2019 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamental Report

• Castor seed prices continue to trade range bound with slight

bullishness due to expected decline in production by 20 to 25 per cent

during the current season because of deficient rainfall in key Castor

growing belts of Gujarat during monsoon. Moreover, higher exports

of Castor compared to last year are also supporting the commodity.

• Castor seed for Deesa plant delivery available at Rs 5,175 per quintal.

Similarly, castor oil is trading around Rs 1,055 per 10 kg in Kadi. Castor

meal is trading around Rs 5,800 per tonne in Deesa.

• According to Gujarat (Deesa) based traders new crop arrivals have

started, but the pace is very slow due to lower crop however supply is

likely to gain pace in coming days. The new crop quality is satisfactory.

• As per market sources, despite lower production prospects in Gujarat,

the castor prices traded under pressure in last two month as export

demand for meal and oil were not encouraging.

• All India Castor seed acreage in 2018 increased to 9.18 lakh hectares up

by 5.05 per cent from last year acreage of 8.74 lakh hectares and 25

per cent down by normal area of 10.51 lakh hectares.

• According to traders, Castor seed production is expected to decline at

around 8-9 lakh tonnes. They also estimated present Castor stocks in

the country to be around 3-4 lakh tonnes against 7-8 lakh tonnes in the

same period last year.

• According to the latest 2nd Advance estimates released by the Gujarat

Agriculture department Castor seed production in the state estimated

to decline by 30 per cent at 10.43 lakh tonnes as compared to 14.84

lakh tonnes in 2017-18 due to deficient rainfall received in major castor

growing belts during the 2018 monsoon.

• As per the Ministry of Agriculture 1st Advance Estimates for 2018-19,

Castor seed production is estimated at 15.17 lakh tonnes as compared

to 15.68 lakh tonnes in 2017-18.

• As per the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India, Castor meal export

during the month of November surged 68.59 per cent at 30,724 metric

tonnes as compared to 18,224 metric tonnes a month ago. However,

the overall April to November 2018-19 exports registered a decline of

37 per cent at 2,59,319 tonnes as compared to 4,16,699 tonnes during

the corresponding period last year.

• As on 20th January Castor seed stocks at NCCL approved warehouses

increased to 70,907 metric tonnes as compared to 48,755 metric

tonnes.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

21-01-2019 14-01-2019 % Change

Deesa 5240 5237 0.05

Kadi 5075 5015 1.19

Sabarkantha 5100 5075 0.49

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Improved demand from domestic and overseas buyers

Bullish

Trade source expecting 20 to 25 per cent decline in production

Bullish

New crop arrivals in various spot markets of Gujarat

Bearish

Profit booking at higher levels Bearish

Castor production in Gujarat to decline at 10.43 lakh tonnes as against 14.84 lakh tonnes

Bullish

Castor meal export in November increased by 68.59 per cent at 30,724 tonnes as against 18,224 tonnes a month ago

Bullish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

2800

3240

3680

4120

4560

5000

5440

5880

6320

6760

Se

p-1

6

Oct

-16

No

v-16

De

c-16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar

-17

Ap

r-17

May

-17

Jun

-17

Jul-1

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Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-18

May

-18

May

-18

Jun

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Jul-1

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Au

g-1

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Oct

-18

No

v-18

De

c-18

Jan

-19

Castor - Deesa

CASTOR

Date: 22/01/2019 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamental Report

• Rapeseed and Mustard prices in most of the spot across the country

and also the futures have remained range bound with slight weak

tone tracking subdued demand against steady supplies.

• According to the traders, new mustard crop of Uttar Pradesh may

start hitting the market by January end. Crop condition of the

standing mustard crop is good and farmers are expecting same

amount of yield this year as compare to last year.

• NAFED has sold 89.5 thousand tonnes of Mustard as on 15th January

and is the highest for the NAFED for this season in the first 15 months.

The auctioned prices are at par with the market rate and thus have

found string interest among crushers amidst tapering supplies in the

market.

• Most of the Industry players are estimating bumper crop this year

with current better sowing prospects and favourable weather

conditions. With the total sown area to hover near 68.70 lakh hectare

(higher by almost 3% on y-o-y basis), output is estimated to go beyond

70 lakh tons. In the largest-producing state (Rajasthan), the weather,

too, has been conducive to growth as there was no report of pest

infestation or any other problem in mustard cultivating areas. The

next one-and-a-half month will be crucial as the crop is in its key

growth phase.

• Demand for rapeseed meal remains subdued from exporters and so

the seed prices were not able to surge despite rally in other oilseeds

markets. Even though the market is projecting high demand on the

way from China front, as they will be lifting ban on Indian meal, but

that high exports would provide support to prices in long term only.

• Meanwhile, market might observe minor gain on the back of short

covering and higher Soyabean prices.

• According to the latest rabi sowing progress report, as on 18th

January 2019 all India mustard acreage for 2018-19 is reported at 68.66

lakh hectares which is 2.8 per cent higher than 2017- 18 acreage of

66.77 lakh hectares.

• The Ministry of Agriculture has targeted Mustard production for 2018-

19 at 84.86 lakh metric tonnes. Mustard production estimate for 2017-

18 is 83.22 lakh metric tonnes which is 5.11 per cent higher than the

2016-17 production estimates of 79.17 lakh metric tonnes.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

21-01-2019 14-01-2019 % Change

Ganganagar 4060 4075 -0.36

Bikaner 3865 3916 -1.30

Kota 4200 4102 2.38

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Subdued demand from crushers and stockiest

Bearish

New crop arrivals in spot markets of Gujarat and Rajasthan

Bearish

Expectation of higher crop production this year with current favourable crop prospects

Bearish

Traders expecting higher demand from China in coming days

Bullish

Increase in acreage during current season as compared to last year

Bearish

Buying at lower levels Bullish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

3,500

3,750

4,000

4,250

4,500

4,750

5,000

5,250

Se

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6

Oct

-16

Oct

-16

No

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Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar

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May

…

Jun

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Rapeseed & Mustard-Black - 42% oil content : Jaipur

RM SEED

Date: 22/01/2019 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamental Report

• Turmeric prices in most of the spot markets across the country

remained weak as demand from North India was reported sluggish

due to cold wave conditions. As far as export demand is concerned it

has also remained subdued.

• According to traders, the arrivals of new crop in the spot markets at

lower pace have also kept the price trend weak and are expecting

further pick up in new crop arrivals in coming weeks.

• Turmeric prices have remained under pressure. But in medium to long

term prices are likely to move on higher side due to crop damage

reports from key Turmeric producing regions of Maharashtra. In

Maharashtra deficit rainfall was reported in Hingoli, Sangli, Nanded,

Basmat etc. affecting Turmeric crop.

• As per trade information, the all India Turmeric stocks are reported

around 24 lakh bags in the spot markets.

• In Nizamabad spot market, current season from 15th January 2018 to

11th January 2019, supply reported around 85,855 MT compared to

82,166 MT in the corresponding period last year, 3.5 per cent reported

up from last year.

• As per trade information, currently standing crop is likely to witness a

damage of around 15 – 20 per cent.

• As per market sources, Turmeric production for 2019 is estimated at

532,353 MT (basis dry crop) compared to previous year’s 476,771 MT.

Turmeric production may go down further as Maharashtra standing

crop is at very crucial stage.

• Turmeric acreage in Andhra Pradesh is reported at 18,737 hectares as

compared to 14,841 hectares last year, more than 100 per cent sowing

completed from season normal.

• In Telangana, final Turmeric sowing reported at 47,888 hectares as

compared to 44,956 hectares in the corresponding period last year.

Current sowing stands at 87 per cent of normal for the season. Normal

area reported 54,878 hectares.

• As per the Ministry of Agriculture, All India Turmeric production in

2017-18 estimated at 11.63 lakh tonnes as against 10.56 lakh tonnes

estimated in 2016-17.

• According to Spice Board of India, Turmeric exports during 2017-18

stood at 1.07 lakh tonnes as compared to 1.16 lakh tonnes in 2016-17.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

21-01-2019 14-01-2019 % Change

Nizamabad 6836 6916 -1.15

Salem 7017 7342 -4.42

Chamarajnagar 7400 7300 1.36

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Weak domestic and export demand in spot markets

Bearish

Arrivals of new crop and expectation of further pick up in crop arrival activities

Bearish

Higher Turmeric crop acreage during current season as compared to last year

Bearish

Trade sources estimating a decline in crop production by 15 to 20 per cent

Bullish

Buying at lower levels Bullish

Turmeric exports in 2017-18 declined to 1.07 lakh tonnes as against 1.16 lakh tonnes in 2016-17

Bearish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

4800

5500

6200

6900

7600

8300

9000

9700

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Turmeric : Unpolished fingers : Nizamabad

TURMERIC

Date: 22/01/2019 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

• Commodity yearbook launched

• Sugar output to drop to 30.7

million tonnes: ISMA

• Agri sector reforms need of the

hour to boost economic growth

of India • India, China sign protocol for

export of Indian tobacco to

Chinese market

• New rice variety has ‘higher yield,

nutrition, pest resistance’

• Govt mulls paying farmers in cash

instead of subsidies

• As millets turn food of choice in

cities, traders reap a rich harvest

• China to import Indian tobacco

• Edible oil imports jump 11% in

December, may rise further on

duty cut

To purchase the India Commodity

Year Book 2019, contact us at

research@ncml.com

Official Production Estimates

First advance estimates 2018-19 &

previous years’ estimates: Fourth

Advance Estimates 2017-18

MINIMUM SUPPORT PRICE (Rs/Qtl.)

Commodity 2017-18 2018-19

KHARIF **NEW**

Paddy Common 1550 1750

paddy grade A 1590 1770

Jowar Hybrid 1700 2430

Jowar Maldandi 1725 2450

Bajra 1425 1950

Ragi 1900 2897

Maize 1425 1700

Tur/Arhar 5450 5675

Moong 5575 6975

Urad 5400 5600

Groundnut 4450 4890

Sunflower seed 4100 5388

Soyabean black 3050 3399

Sesamum 5300 6249

Nigerseed 4050 5877

Cotton (Medium Staple) 4020 5150

Cotton (Long Staple) 4320 5450

RABI

Commodity 2017-18 2018-19

Wheat 1735 1840

Barley 1410 1440

Gram 4400 4620

Masur (Lentil) 4250 4475

Rapeseed/Mustard 4000 4200

Safflower 4100 4945

*includes bonus of Rs 200 per quintal

# includes bonus of Rs 100 per quintal

Commodity Latest Fortnight ago Month ago Year ago

21-Jan-19 07-Jan-19 22-Dec-18 22-Jan-18

Soybean 3827 3505 3413 3524

RM seed 4150 4117 4136 4013

Turmeric 6836 6979 7040 7580

Cotton 12109 12162.35 12296 11825

Chilli 9500 9200 9500 10000

Jeera 18170 18280 18308 20115

Castor 5215 5326 5147 4109

PRICE TRACKER

Link for commodity-wise and

market-wise prices and arrivals:

http://agmarknet.gov.in/PriceAndArriv

als/CommodityWiseDailyReport2.aspx

THE WEEK THAT WAS

Date: 22/01/2019 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Date: 22/01/2019 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

All India Weather status

Last week all India Rainfall status: 10th Jan 2019 to 16th Jan 2019

• Rajasthan State received the excess rainfall

• Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Sikkim, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana,

Chandigarh, Punjab and Himachal Pradesh states received the large deficit rainfall.

• Jammu & Kashmir state received the deficit rainfall

• No rainfall is observed in Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, Odisha, Madhya

Pradesh, Gujarat), Goa, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka

and Kerala states

During the week, rainfall was below Long Period Average (LPA) by 73 % over the country as a whole

.

Seasonal all India Rainfall status: 1st Jan 2019 to 21th Jan 2019.

• Jammu & Kashmir state received the excess rainfall.

• Himachal Pradesh and Rajasthan states received deficit rainfall.

• Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram ,Sikkim ,Bihar ,Uttar

Pradesh , Uttarakhand, Haryana, Punjab ,Madhya Pradesh and Tamil Nadu states received the

large deficit rainfall

• No rainfall is observed in the states of Tripura, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Odisha, Gujarat, Goa,

Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka and Kerala.

For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during 01 January to 15th January 2019 was

below LPA by 50% over the country as a whole.

Weather Forecast:

• Dense fog is likely to prevail over parts of northern plains during the morning hours.

• The night minimum temperatures are likely to fall once again from 26 January to their slightly below normal values over major parts of

India, outside east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Assam & Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura ad Karnataka, where they are likely to be

warmer than normal by 1-30 C

• From 22th January, the minimum temperatures are likely to rise over northwest India. As a consequence, warmer than normal night

minimum temperatures are likely to prevail over major parts of northwest India ( Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand,

Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi and Rajasthan)

Reservoirs status: as on 10th Jan’2019

Central Water Commission monitors 91 major reservoirs in

the country which have total live capacity of 161.99 Billion

Cubic Meter (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL). Out of

these, 76 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 120.44 BCM have

irrigation potential. Live storage in the 91 major reservoirs

as on 10th January, 2019 has been 80.40 BCM as against

81.24 BCM on 10.01.2018 (last year) and 86.73 BCM of

normal (average of the last 10 years) storage. Current year’s

storage is 99% of last year’s storage and nearly 93% of

average of last 10 year’s storage.

Source: IMD, DAC&FW and CWC

Date: 22/01/2019 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Impact of weather on major crops

Crop All India

Acreage

Current crop condition

Wheat 306.29

Major wheat growing states are Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan, Bihar,

Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Rajasthan. Sowing is done in

entire state. Crop in in tilering to heading stage. Wheat crop is struggling in partial

irrigated area while it is in normal condition in rest of India. Overall crop condition is

normal.

Rapeseed

&Mustard 61.25

Major rapeseed growing states are Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, and Madhya

Pradesh. Crop sowing is completed and is currently in flowering to grain filling stage.

Incidence of disease and insect has not been observed in field till date. Further,

moisture in the soil is decreasing continuously in Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and

Rajasthan. Overall crop condition is normal.

Chickpea 89.45

Major gram sowing state is Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Uttar

Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. Gram sowing is completed, and crop is

currently in pod formation stage. Incidence of disease and insect has been observed

in some regions like Maharashtra (affected by damping off), Madhya Pradesh &

Rajasthan (affected by frost). Crop is currently struggling in rainfed area because of

very limited rainfall in the region till second week of January, however, rainfall

received in third week of January may be very beneficial for crop health & yield.

Overall crop condition is below-normal to normal.

Lentil 13.94

Major lentil crop sowing state is Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh (Buldelkhand

region). Crop sowing is completed, and crop is currently in flowering stage. Incidence

of disease and insect has not been observed in field till date. Crop acreage is almost

same in comparison to last year. Crop is currently struggling in some parts of rainfed

area because of very limited rainfall till second week of January, however, rainfall

received in third week of January may be very beneficial for crop health & yield.

Overall current crop condition is normal.

* Rainfall received in third week of January and onwards may be very beneficial for crop health &

yield.

Acreage in lacs Hectare as on date 18th January’ 2019

Source: Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers Welfare

Date: 22/01/2019 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

yy

link ANSWERS & LUCKY

WINNER OF PREVIOUS

WEEK’S QUIZ

NCoMMQUIZ PREVIOUS WEEK’S ANSWERS

THESE PEOPLE ANSWERED CORRECTLY!

1. What is the target set for 2018-19 Chana production by Government?

10.50 million tonnes

2. As per the report by how much per cent the Chana acreage is lagging?

10.14 per cent

1750 per quintal

3. What is the MSP of Paddy common for marketing year 2018-19?

Name Department Name Department Ankur Srivastava Mktyard yogesh sanwarmal sharma IT

Pawar Sai SHiva SHankar Mktyard Anilkumar Parvathaneni Risk

Ansh Aggarwal SCM Anand Pandey S&P

sarita mittal SCM Rahul maroti YENGADE Mktyard

Vikas Kumar CM Pawan Joshi Mktyard

SHRIKANT PATIL S&P YOGENDRA SINGH Others

Om Singh CM S Srinivasu S&P

Rahul jain Risk Pravin Pandharinath Jagtap Non-NCMLite

Twinkle Gupta S&P Shailender Sharma Others

Meenakshi Gupta HR&Admin AJENDRA SINGH CHAUHAN Mktyard

Nagina Gowda S&P Vanisha Vij HR&Admin

Vivekanand Gurjar T&C Basant Vaid SCM

LUCKY WINNER!

Yogesh Sanwarmal Sharma

IT Mumbai

CONGRATULATIONS!

Date: 22/01/2019 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

sory Team

Nalin Rawal Head: CWIG Nalin.r@ncml.com

Sreedhar Nandam Vice President: SCM sreedhar.n@ncml.com

Research Team

Suresh Solanki Assistant Manager: TCIG suresh.s@ncml.com

Rajiv Kumar Associate: TCIG rajiv.ku@ncml.com

Akash Jaiswal Research Analyst: TCIG akash.j@ncml.com

Nahalaxmi. J Client Service Executive:TCIG Nahalaxmi.j@gmail.com

Shefali Jain Operation Executive: TCIG Shefali.j@ncml.com

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