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Date: 26/12/2018 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

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⚫ • Cotton • Sugar • Soyben • RM Seed ⚫ • Castor seed • Turmeric • Jeera

NCoMM

NCML COMMODITY MARKET MONITOR

Cotton | Sugar | Soybean | RM Seed | Castor seed | Turmeric | Jeera

OUTLOOK

OTHER DATA Sowing progress | Advance estimates | Kharif and rabi MSP

ANSWERS & LUCKY WINNER OF PREVIOUS WEEK’S

RM Seed | Jeera | Castor Seed | Turmeric

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NCML COMMODITY MARKET MONITOR NCoMM

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Date: 26/12/2018 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamental Report

• According to the latest rabi sowing progress report, as on 21st

December all India mustard acreage for 2018-19 is reported at 64.71

lakh hectares which is 2.64 per cent higher than 2017-18 acreage of

63.05 lakh hectares. Acreage under the mustard crop is expected to

be to increase by 8-10 per cent as compare to last year as a large

number of farmers who had earlier switched from cultivating mustard

to lentils due to drought, have taken up the crop again.

• Domestic output of mustard crop could be 10-12 per cent higher than

last year as farmers may switch to mustard crop due to higher

minimum support price (MSP) and better seeds quality. Moreover,

ongoing cold weather is highly favourable for the better yield of the

crop.

• Mustard production target for 2018-19 is 84.86 lakh metric tonnes.

According to the fourth advance estimate of government, India

mustard production estimate for 2017-18 is 83.22 lakh metric tonnes

which is 5.11 percent higher than the 2016-17 production estimate of

79.17 lakh metric tonnes.

• Demand of mustard oil is good in the market due to winter season.

However, higher availability of mustard in the market is not letting

prices to move northward.

• According to the agmark data, all India mustard arrivals in the third

week of December 2018 is reported at 19.94 thousand MT which is

6.34 per cent higher than the second week of December arrivals of

18.75 thousand MT.

• Having lower response from market participants in auction, NAFED is

unable to auction higher quantity of mustard. NAFED has around 4.67

lakh tonnes of mustard in their stock. Moreover, according to the

trade sources, 11 lakh tonnes of mustard stock is available with

farmers, stockiest and millers.

• India’s mustard meal exports in the month of November 2018 were

56.089 thousand MT (provisional), higher by 61.03 per cent against

34.830 thousand MT in October 2018. Total exports of rapeseed meal

from April 2018 to November 2018 were 7.45 lakh MT which is 90.05

percent higher than 2017 exports of 3.92 lakh MT in the same time

period. Average FoB price of mustard meal in the month of November

is $230 which is slightly higher than FoB price of October of $229.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

25-12-2018 18-12-2018 %Change

Jaipur 4136 4196 -1.43

Sriganganagar 4076 4179 -2.46

Bulandshahr 4120 4150 -0.72

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Slightly higher mustard sowing acreage as compare to last year

Bearish

Higher production estimate Bearish

Higher stocks with the market participants

Bearish

Higher demand expectation and exports of mustard meal

Bullish

Lower mustard oil imports Bullish

Expectation of lower import duty on oils in the coming days

Bearish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

3,500

3,750

4,000

4,250

4,500

4,750

5,000

5,250

Se

p-1

6

De

c-16

Mar

-17

Jun

-17

Se

p-1

7

De

c-17

Mar

-18

Jun

-18

Se

p-1

8

De

c-18

Rapeseed & Mustard-Black - 42% oil content : Jaipur

RM SEED

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Date: 26/12/2018 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamental Report

• According to the Gujarat agriculture department, Gujarat jeera sowing

acreage as on 17th December 2018 is recorded at 3.06 lakh hectares in

2018 which is 13.82 per cent lower than last year acreage of 3.48 lakh

hectares in the same time period. Lower cumin acreage is due to lower

availability of water. However, the Gujarat government has assured the

industry of providing irrigation facilities in Gujarat.

• On the contrary, by November last week Rajasthan the second largest

producer of jeera after Gujarat has witnessed 24% increase in sowing

area at 3.1 lakh hectares as compared to 2.5 lakh lakh hectares in the

corresponding period last year.

• According to the market participants, jeera all India production estimate

for 2018-19 can be around 3.5 lakh tonnes. Lower production estimate is

due to lower sowing acreage in Gujarat and lower yield expectation due

to lower water availability.

• As per the Ministry of Agriculture, Cumin production in India for 2017-18

is estimated at 5 lakh tonnes as against 4.95 lakh tonnes in 2016-17.

According to the 4th advance estimate for Gujarat state,2017-18

production is estimated at 2.88 lakh tonnes, up by 45.5 per cent primarily

on higher acreage and favourable climate.

• According to the agmark data, all India jeera arrivals in the third week of

December 2018 is reported at 2.50 thousand MT which is 5.48 per cent

higher than the second week of December arrivals of 2.37 thousand MT.

• According to the market participants, all India jeera stocks are may be

around 11-12 lakh bags. Farmers and stockiest may hold jeera in

expectation of getting higher prices in the coming days.

• According to the trade sources, jeera demand has been slowed down

due to lower off take in the spot market. However, there is demand for

the fresh crop that will arrive from next March. The buyers are offering

$2,350 to $2,400 per tonne for the new crop compared with $2,600 for

the present crop.

• The overseas demand for Indian jeera is expected to increase as the

supply from other origins like Turkey and Syria are limited and of poor

quality due to crop damage. Although Indian jeera is priced higher in the

global market, it is drawing more buyers because of superior quality.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

25-12-2018 18-12-2018 %Change

Unjha 18308 18973 -3.50

Rajkot 15655 16655 -6.00

Jodhpur 18150 19000 -4.47

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Lower sowing acreage in Gujarat Bullish

Gujarat government has assured of providing irrigation facilities

Bearish

Lower offtake from the spot market Bearish

Higher export demand Bullish

Lower arrivals in the domestic mandis Bullish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

13,000.00

15,000.00

17,000.00

19,000.00

21,000.00

Jun

-16

Se

p-1

6

No

v-16

Feb

-17

Ap

r-17

Jul-1

7

Se

p-1

7

No

v-17

Feb

-18

Ap

r-18

Jul-1

8

Se

p-1

8

De

c-18

Cumin Seed (Jeera) - Unjha

JEERA

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Date: 26/12/2018 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamental Report

• Castor prices both in futures and spot markets continue to trade with

bearish tone as buyers opted to wait and watch policy due to sharp

losses in castor seed prices over the last one month and also the

expectation of new crops arrivals in Gujarat kept the market sentiments

on lower side.

• As per trade sources, currently arrivals of castor seed are pegged at

1,500-2,000 bags (1 bag = 75 kg) compared to 3,000-4,000 bags during

the corresponding period last year as arrivals this season have been

delayed by up to two weeks.

• Last year, the new crop arrivals started in the first week of December.

Arrivals in the state are likely to gain pace from mid-January.

• The long-term sentiments are still bullish due to lower crop outlook.

Castor seed crop this season is expected to be around 7-8 lakh bags as

compared to 14-15 lakh bags last year as adverse weather likely to

damage the crop significantly in Gujarat.

• All India Castor seed acreage in 2018 increased to 8.59 lakh hectares up

by 5.15 per cent from last year acreage of 8.78 lakh hectares and 25 per

cent down by normal area of 8.66 lakh hectares.

• As per the Ministry of Agriculture 1st Advance Estimates for 2018-19,

Castor seed production is estimated at 15.17 lakh tonnes as compared

to 15.68 lakh tonnes in 2017-18.

• Gujarat Agriculture Department in its first advance estimates for 2018-

19 estimated Castor crop to decline more than 20 per cent to 11.73 lakh

tonnes versus 14.84 lakh tonnes.

• As per the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India, castor oil exports

plunged 30.5 per cent year-on-year to 36,669 tonnes in October,

slowdown in demand from China, which accounts for around 70 per

cent of India’s non-edible oil exports. The outlook for exports is bearish

as demand in the global market is unlikely to gather pace in the coming

months. During April-October, India shipped 334,519 tonnes of castor

oil compared with 386,330 tonnes a year ago. In FY 2017-18, India’s total

exports were pegged at 651,326 tonnes as against 556,778 tonnes in

the previous year. Japan, European countries, and the US are the

prominent buyers of Indian castor oil besides China.

• Castor meal export during the month of November surged 68.59 per

cent at 30,724 metric tonnes as compared to 18,224 metric tonnes a

month ago. Shipment during April-November however dropped 37.7

per cent at 259,319 metric tonnes against 416,699 metric tonnes in the

same period a year ago.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

24-12-2018 17-12-2018 %Change

Deesa 5147 5351 -3.81

Tharad 4725 5050 -6.43

Jodhpur 4662 4685 -0.49

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Buyers opting to wait before initiating fresh trade due to significant losses in castor seed over the last one month

Bearish

Expectations of new crops arrivals in spot markets of Gujarat and other states

Bearish

All India Castor acreage increased to 8.59 lakh hectares up by 5.15 per cent from last year

Bearish

Lower crop production estimates from Gujarat due to dry weather conditions during crop growth

Bullish

Castor oil exports declined by 30.5 per cent in October due to slowdown in demand from China

Bearish

Buying at lower levels due to expectation of lower crop this season

Bullish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

2800

3240

3680

4120

4560

5000

5440

5880

6320

6760

Se

p-1

6

De

c-16

Mar

-17

Jun

-17

Se

p-1

7

De

c-17

Mar

-18

Jun

-18

Se

p-1

8

De

c-18

Castor - Deesa

CASTOR

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Date: 26/12/2018 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamental Report

• Turmeric markets sentiments are mostly bearish due to lack of strong

demand as compared to steady supplies. Moreover, the inflow of new

crop in Nizamabad from mid-January is further likely to pressurise

turmeric prices.

• As per market sources, traders are likely to become active in coming

days at lower price levels as Turmeric production in Maharashtra is

estimated on lower side as a result of drought condition and also the

cold storage stocks reported lower.

• Market sources reported “Phethai” cyclone has slightly damaged the

turmeric crop in Duggirala and Cuddapah belts. These two belts

account for over 10 to 12 per cent of domestic turmeric production.

Meanwhile, a section of the trade community is of the view that a

reasonable amount of rain is better in the harvesting of the crop.

• The production of turmeric is expected to be higher by at least 10-15 per

cent this year at 1.25 to 1.3o million tonnes due to higher acreage and

favourable crop weather conditions throughout the season.

• In Andhra Pradesh crop harvesting normally begins in January,

followed by Maharashtra in February and Erode in March. Accordingly,

we may see seasonal supply pressure on prices in coming months.

• Turmeric supply current week up by around 23 per cent from

corresponding period last year. Turmeric stocks in Nizamabad (both old

and new crop) were estimated around 3.00 lakh bags (1 bag = 70 kgs)

as compared to around 2.00 lakh bags same period last year.

• As per trade information, the all India Turmeric stocks are reported

around 26 lakh bags in the spot markets.

• In Andhra Pradesh, Turmeric final sowing reported 18,737 hectares as

compared to 14,841 hectares in the corresponding period last year, 104

per cent sowing completed from season normal.

• In Telangana, final Turmeric sowing reported at 47,888 hectares as

compared to 44,956 hectares in the corresponding period last year.

Current sowing stands at 87 per cent of normal for the season. Normal

area reported 54,878 hectares.

• As per the Ministry of Agriculture, All India Turmeric production in 2017-

18 is estimated at 11.63 lakh tonnes as against 10.56 lakh tonnes

estimated in 2016-17.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

24-12-2018 17-12-2018 %Change

Nizamabad 7040 7041 -0.01

Sangli 7500 7800 -3.84

Erode 7200 7400 -2.70

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Lack of strong demand for turmeric as against steady supplies in spot markets

Bearish

Expectation of higher supplies from new crop may further pressurise prices

Bearish

Lower production estimates from Maharashtra due to drought in key growing areas

Bullish

Higher Turmeric acreage during current season in key Andhra Pradesh and Telangana states

Bearish

Lower turmeric availability with cold storages

Bullish

All India Turmeric production in 2017-18 estimated at 11.63 lakh tonnes as against 10.56 lakh tonnes in 2016-17

Bearish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

4800

5500

6200

6900

7600

8300

9000

9700

Jun

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

Jul-1

7

No

v-17

Ap

r-18

Au

g-1

8

De

c-18

Turmeric : Unpolished fingers : Nizamabad

TURMERIC

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Date: 26/12/2018 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

• Sugar output hits 70 lakh tonnes

as of Dec 15: ISMA

• ITC enters crowded branded rice

market with Sona Masoori

• IMD sees extended cold weather

for North and Central India • Karnataka to offer Rs.

425/quintal bonus over MSP for

tur growers • Cotton Association of India cuts

2018-19 production estimate by 3

lakh bales

• Central govt teams in 6 states

assessing drought situation: Agri

Min

• Govt mulls independent body

for price discovery on spot

exchanges

• Cabinet likely to clear policy to

boost exports of agri

commodities

• ICEX to restart black pepper

contracts soon

To purchase the India Commodity

Year Book 2018, contact us at

research@ncml.com

Official Production Estimates

Fourth advance estimates 2017-18 &

previous years’ estimates: Fourth

Advance Estimates 2017-18

MINIMUM SUPPORT PRICE (Rs/Qtl.)

Commodity 2017-18 2018-19

KHARIF **NEW**

Paddy Common 1550 1750

paddy grade A 1590 1770

Jowar Hybrid 1700 2430

Jowar Maldandi 1725 2450

Bajra 1425 1950

Ragi 1900 2897

Maize 1425 1700

Tur/Arhar 5450 5675

Moong 5575 6975

Urad 5400 5600

Groundnut 4450 4890

Sunflower seed 4100 5388

Soyabean black 3050 3399

Sesamum 5300 6249

Nigerseed 4050 5877

Cotton (Medium Staple) 4020 5150

Cotton (Long Staple) 4320 5450

RABI

Commodity 2017-18 2018-19

Wheat 1735 1840

Barley 1410 1440

Gram 4400 4620

Masur (Lentil) 4250 4475

Rapeseed/Mustard 4000 4200

Safflower 4100 4945

*includes bonus of Rs 200 per quintal

# includes bonus of Rs 100 per quintal

Commodity Latest Fortnight ago Month ago Year ago

24-Dec-18 10-Dec-18 24-Nov-18 25-Dec-17

Soybean 3413 3396 3445 3089

RM seed 4136 4193.3 4217.5 4111

Turmeric 7040 7015 7100 7820

Cotton 12091.76 12632 12464.9 11459

Chilli Teja 10000 11300 12200 9500

Jeera 18308 19191 19800 21006

Castor 4999 5502 5618 4472

PRICE TRACKER

Link for commodity-wise and

market-wise prices and arrivals:

http://agmarknet.gov.in/PriceAndArriv

als/CommodityWiseDailyReport2.aspx

THE WEEK THAT WAS

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Date: 26/12/2018 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

0

Date: 26/12/2018 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

All India Weather status

Reservoirs status: as on 6th Dec’2018

The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 91

important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of

161.99 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM), which is about 63% of total reservoir

capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.

The totla live storage in 91 important reservoirs in different parts o the

country, monitored by CWC on week ending 6 Dec’2018 was 94.994 BCM

The storage was less than the last years’s position by 1.894 BCM and less than

the average of last ten years storage position by 5.177 BCM

Last week all India Rainfall status: 29th to 5th Dec’18

• Pondicherry (Ut) and Andaman & Nicobar (Ut) states received the Normal rainfall

.

• Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Sikkim, Uttarakhand, Telangana and Karnataka states received the large deficit rainfall.

• Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshadweep (Ut) states received the deficit rainfall.

• No rainfall is observed in the states of Chhattisgarh Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, West Bengal, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh (Ut) Delhi (Ut), Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Rajasthan, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Dadar & Nagar Haveli (Ut), Daman & Diu (Ut), Goa, and Maharashtra,

.

Seasonal all India Rainfall status: 1st Oct to 10th Dec’18

• Jammu and Kashmir State received the excess rainfall.

• Odisha, Andaman & Nicobar (Ut), Tamilnadu, Pondicherry (Ut), Kerala and Lakshadweep (Ut) states received the

normal rainfall

• Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram, Tripura, Sikkim, West Bengal, Chandigarh (Ut), Goa, Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka

states received deficit rainfall.

• Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Delhi (Ut), Punjab,

Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Dadar & Nagar Haveli (Ut), Daman & Diu (Ut), Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh,

Andhra Pradesh and Telangana states received the large deficit rainfall

Weather Forecast:

• Light isolated rainfall very likely to occur over Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Lakshadweep, and Coastal Andhra Pradesh

• Isolated rainfall/snowfall activity is very likely to occur over Arunachal Pradesh & Sikkim

• Heavy rain at isolated places likely over south Coastal Andhra Pradesh and north coastal Tamilnadu

• Dense fog at isolated places is very likely over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi and West Uttar Pradesh.

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Date: 26/12/2018 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Impact of weather on major crops

S.N. Crop

Normal

area (2013-

14 to 2017-

18)

All India

Acreage Current Crop Condition

1 Wheat 306.26 194.49

Major wheat growing states are Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Rajasthan, Haryana, Bihar, Gujarat and Maharashtra. Sowing is ongoing in all the states. Wheat acreage has been increased in Madhya Pradesh however; sowing of gram (Dallar) may reduce and might get switch to Wheat as Wheat crop is in low weather risk and placed at better market price as compared to gram. Additionally, MSP of wheat has also been increased in this year as compare to last year. Overall condition and germination stage is normal.

2 Rapeseed &Mustard

61.25 59.56

Major rapeseed growing states are Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, and Madhya Pradesh. Crop sowing is in completion stage and is currently in vegetative to flowering stage. Mustard area has been increased in Rajasthan as compared to other states where sowing area is almost same as that of previous year. Incidence of disease and insect has not been observed in field till date. Further, moisture in the soil is decreasing continuously in Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Rajasthan and may impact crop health. Overall crop condition is normal.

3 Chickpea 89.45 77.27

Major gram sowing state is Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. Gram sowing speed is affected by initial deficient moisture. Gram sowing acreage has been decreased in Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh due to deficit in soil moisture. Incidence of disease and insect has not been observed in field till date. Overall crop condition is normal.

4 Lentil 13.94 13.95

Major lentil crop sowing state is Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh (majority from Buldelkhand region). Crop sowing is in completion stage and is currently in germination to vegetative stage. Lentil sowing area is almost same as compare to last year. Soil moisture is continuously decreasing and may impact crop health. Overall crop condition is normal.

Acreage in lacs Hectare as on date 07th December2018

Source: Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers Welfare

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Date: 26/12/2018 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

yyy

link

NCoMM QUIZ PREVIOUS WEEK’S ANSWERS

THESE PEOPLE ANSWERED CORRECTLY!

1. Which commodity has highest percentage decrease in sowing acreage this year?

Bajra

2. Which commodity is getting export incentive?

Paddy

None

3. Which crop has higher production estimate in Australia?

Name Department

Basant Vaid SCM

Anilkumar Parvathaneni

Risk

ANJALI CM

Vinod Maurya CM

Arun Kumar CM

Manish Kumar Rohilla CM

LUCKY WINNER!

Vinod Maurya

CM Department

CONGRATULATIONS!

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Date: 26/12/2018 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Advisory Team

Nalin Rawal Head: CWIG Nalin.r@ncml.com

Sreedhar Nandam Vice President: SCM sreedhar.n@ncml.com

Research Team

Suresh Solanki Assistant Manager: TCIG suresh.s@ncml.com

Rajiv Kumar Associate: TCIG rajiv.ku@ncml.com

Akash Jaiswal Research Analyst: TCIG akash.j@ncml.com

Disclaimer:

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on circumstances and facts as they existed at the time of preparation of this report. Any change in circumstances and facts on which

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