new industrial revolution and implictations for automobile industry

Navigating the New Industrial Revolution(s)

---Implications for the Automobile Industry

Professor Robin Teigland Stockholm School of Economics

www.slideshare.net/eteiglandrobin.teigland@hhs.se

@RobinTeiglandNovember 2016

ExploitationImproving

existing value creation activities

ExplorationDeveloping new value creation activities

Adapted from March 1991

From resource control to resource orchestration

From internal optimization to external interaction

From customer value to ecosystem value

Some fundamental shifts…

2016 Parker & Van Alstyne, with Choudary

Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos

Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos

2015

“We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next

ten.”

- Bill Gates, The Road Ahead, 1996

Food deliveries

Valuecreation

People• “Net generation”• 24x7 “mobile” workforce• Knowledge via MOOCs• Sharing not owning• Sustainability• Gigs and not jobs

Technology • Broadband• Smart phones• Cloud• Internet of Things • Big Data• Cognitive computing• 3D printing• Robotics/AI• VR/AR/ Holography

Open Source IP• Software • Hardware• Physibles

Convergence of…..

Finance• Microlending/microfinance • Crowdfunding/equity/P2P• Cryptocurrencies• Blockchains• Mobile money/payments • M2M payments

New technologies enable new entrants

As does crowdfunding

Elio Motors becoming a reality

http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/fourth-industrial-revolution-need-know/

• Launched June 2010• 519 cities in >68 countries

• Limited physical assets• 7000 employees

• USD 62.5 bln valuation(BMW, 1916, 116,000 empl, USD 53

bln)

“Doing more with less” through a global platform

A system that activates the untapped value of all kinds of assets through

models and marketplaces that enable greater efficiency and access.

- Botsman

The Sharing Economy

Harvard Business Review, 2014

The Sharing Economy: Embracing Change with Cautionhttp://www.slideshare.net/eteigland/sharing-economy-webb

Changing consumer behaviors

http://www.slideshare.net/MarketRevolution/shsu-sharing-economy-collaborative-consumption

What if we share instead?

http://www.slideshare.net/MarketRevolution/shsu-sharing-economy-collaborative-consumption

Evolution of transportation

http://www.slideshare.net/MarketRevolution/shsu-sharing-economy-collaborative-consumption

In-house initiatives

Trading one job for a number of “gigs”…

All just

one click away!

Hoffice – a Swedish concept gone global

My first attempt at 3D printing – successful!

Global DIY microfactory networks enable circular economies

The automotive industry

Disruptions ......the likes of which the industry hasn’t seen since the

automated assembly line.

http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2015/01/auto-industry-innovation.html

FIRM YEAR FOUNDED NO. EMPLOYEES MKT CAP

BMW 1916 116,000 $53B

UBER 2009 7,000 $60B

MARRIOT 1927 200,000 $17B

AIRBNB 2008 5,000 $21B

WALT DISNEY 1923 185,000 $165B

FACEBOOK 2004 12,691 $315B

KODAK 1888 145,000 $30B (heyday)

INSTAGRAM 2010 13 $1B (acquisition)

2016 Parker & Van Alstyne, with Choudary

Something fundamental is changing

Pipeline – Traditional linear value chain

Supply-side economies of scale

Network EffectsValue rises as more people

use the platform Metcalfe’s Law

Platform-based business models

Community platform Hierarchical firmV

S

Ford~ Created by employees within

organizational boundaries

E.g., Local Motors~ Created by community collaborators regardless of affiliation

Teigland, Di Gangi, & Yetis 2012

The Flipped Firm: New model of value creation?

Platforms enable ecosystems

Elia Giovacchini 2016

“Local Motors is the place for people to create influential vehicles together.”

• 100xs less capital cost • 5xs faster productionhttps://launchforth.io/explore/

http://www.3ders.org/articles/20160520-local-motors-unveils-3d-printed-strati-car-packed-with-autonomous-driving-iot-tech.html

Self-driving vehicle with IBM Watson

https://localmotors.com/posts/category/press-releases/

Local and mobile factories

Integrating offline and online communities Arizona

Washington DCTennesseeGermany

Converging technologies

3D printing Robot

Blockchain/AI

Drones/IoTSocial Robots

Darja Isaksson, Ziggy

Automated, fossil free, service-based

The Blockchain is the glue that is going to drive a productivity revolution across the globe on

par with what Henry Ford did with the automobile.

— Paul Brody, Americas Strategy Leader, Technology Sector, Ernst & Young

Increasing number of substitutes

Robot for you as virtual shopper

http://www.ehang.com/ehang184

Moving into the Internet?

O’Driscoll 2009

New forms of “face to face” meetings

Newton’s third law holds that every action has an equal and opposite

reaction.

In the same vein, every disruptive threat creates an equal, if not

greater, opportunity. http://www.innosight.com/innovation-resources/strategy-innovation/turning-ambiguity-into-opportunity-a-new-approach-to-strategy-under-uncertainty.cfm

All our knowledge is about the past, but all our strategic decisions are about the

future.

What we don’t know

we don’t know about the future

What we know

What we know we don’t know

So, how can we prepare for the future?

Looking into the future?

Forecast−How we think the future will be

Vision−How we want the future to be

Scenario−What the future can beScenarios: Memories from the future

????

ExploitationImproving

existing value creation activities

ExplorationDeveloping new value creation activities

Adapted from March 1991

From resource control to resource orchestration

From internal optimization to external interaction

From customer value to ecosystem value

Some fundamental shifts…

2016 Parker & Van Alstyne, with Choudary

Some tips…

1. Boundary spanner bridging diverse networks

2. Problem solver -> solution finder

3. What if? Breaking basic assumptions

Robin Teiglandrobin.teigland@hhs.se

www.slideshare.net/eteigland@robin.teigland

If you love knowledge, set it free…

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