non-state actors in sub-saharan africa 2007-2012 outlook

Non-State Actors In Sub-Saharan Africa 2007-2012 Outlook

Team Non-State Actors:Mark Blair

Daniel McNultyBrittany Monteparte

Andreea NeaguAdrienne Sluga

12 November 2007

Mercyhurst Intelligence Estimate

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Agenda• Requirements

• Non-State Actor Key Findings

• Methodological Key Findings

• Guided Tour Of The Wiki

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Requirement• What role will non-state actors (NSAs) play and what impact

will NSAs have in Sub-Saharan Africa over the next five years?

– What is the likely importance of NSAs vs. State Actors, Supra-State Actors and other relevant categories of actors in Sub-Saharan Africa?

– What are the roles of these actors in key countries, such as Niger?

– Are there geographic, cultural, economic or other patterns of activity along which the roles of these actors are either very different or strikingly similar?

• What analytical processes and methodologies were applied to the questions above and which proved to be effective or ineffective?

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What Role Will Non-State Actors (NSAs) Play And What Impact Will NSAs Have In Sub-Saharan Africa Over The Next Five Years?

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Key Findings• NSAs, On Average, Likely Play A Limited Role In Sub-

Saharan Africa

• NSA Roles Unlikely To Change

• Even Split Between Current Government Sanctioned And Extra-Government Role Potentials

Government Sanctioned Role Potentials:

(e.g. Unions, Lobbyists, Privatization)

Extra-Government Role Potentials:

(e.g. Violence, Bribery, etc.)

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Key Findings

• Government Sanctioned Roles Likely To Moderately Increase Over The Next Five Years

• Extra-Government Roles Likely To See No Increase Within The Next Five Years

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What Is The Likely Importance Of NSAs Versus State Actors And Supra-State Actors In Sub-Saharan Africa?

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NSA Versus State Actors

• State Actors Likely To Have More Influence In Sub-Saharan Africa

• On Average, Government Control Likely To Stay The Same Within The Next Five Years

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• Two Supra-State Organizations Likely Have Significant Influence In Sub-Saharan Africa– European Union

– United Nations

• It Is Unlikely That They Will Impact The Role Of NSAs Now And In The Next Five Years

NSA Versus Supra-State Actors

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What Are The Roles Of Non-State Actors (NSAs) In Key Countries, Such As Niger?

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Key Countries

Current Role Role in 2012

Key Countries 0 1 GS

All Countries 0 0

• Angola, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Niger, Nigeria, And South Africa Likely Key Countries To US

– Strategic Locations– Military Importance – Vast Natural Resources

– Counterterrorism Initiatives

• NSAs Likely Play Little To No Role In Key Countries Currently And Over The Next Five Years

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Are There Geographic, Cultural, Economic Or Other Patterns Of Activity Along Which The Roles Of These Actors Are Either Very Different Or Strikingly Similar?

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MAURITANIA1-EG NIGER

2-EG

MALI2-GS

SUDAN2-EG

CHAD4-EG

ETHIOPIA1-GS

ERITREA2-EG

DJIBOUTI1-EG

SOMALIA5-EGKENYA

2-GS/EG

TANZANIA2-GS

MADAGASCAR2-GSMOZAMBIQUE

1-GS

SWAZILAND1-GSLESOTHO

2-GS

S. AFRICA4-GS

NAMIBIA3-GS BOTSWANA

4-GS

ZIMBABWE2-EG

MALAWI1-GS

ZAMBIA1-GS

ANGOLA1-EG

DROC3-EG

REP. OF CONGO3-EG

GABON

2-GS

SAO TOME & PRINCIPE1-GS

BENIN

2-GS

EQUATORIAL GUINEA2-EG

TOGO2-EG

GH

AN

A2-

GS

NIGERIA1-EG

CA

MER

OO

N1-

EG

CENTRALAFRICAN REP.

4-EG

COTE D’IVOIRE

2-EG

SIERRA LEONE2-EG

LIBERIA3-EG

GUINEA3-EG

GUINEA-BISSAU2-EG

THE GAMBIA1-GS

SENEGAL2-GS

CAPE VERDE2-GS

UGANDA

2-G

S

BURKINA

FASO 2-EG

RWANDA1-GS/EG

BURUNDI

2-EG

COMOROS1-GS

SEYECHELLES2-GS

MAURITIUS4-GS

Government Sanctioned Role Potentials

Extra-GovernmentRole Potentials

Overall NSA Role Scores

NoRole

MultipleSignificant

Roles

MultipleSignificant

Roles

5 2 1 2 3 4 54 3 10

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• Southern And Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa:

– Region Likely Influenced By Government Sanctioned NSAs

– Government Sanctioned NSAs Likely To Increase Influence Over Next Five Years

Southern And Eastern Region

5 2 1 2 3 4 54 3 10

Government Sanctioned Role

Potentials

Extra-GovernmentRole Potentials

Overall NSA Role Scores

NoRole Multiple

SignificantRoles

MultipleSignificant

Roles

Patterns Of Activity: Geographic

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• Central Sub-Saharan Africa:

– Region Likely Influenced By Extra-Government NSAs

– NSA Role Unlikely To Change Over Next Five Years

Central Region

5 2 1 2 3 4 54 3 10

Government Sanctioned Role

Potentials

Extra-GovernmentRole Potentials

Overall NSA Role Scores

NoRole Multiple

SignificantRoles

MultipleSignificant

Roles

Patterns Of Activity: Geographic

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• Western Sub-Saharan Africa

– NSAs Likely Play A Wide Variety Of Roles

– No Clear Trends

Western Region

5 2 1 2 3 4 54 3 10

Government Sanctioned Role

Potentials

Extra-GovernmentRole Potentials

Overall NSA Role Scores

NoRole Multiple

SignificantRoles

MultipleSignificant

Roles

Patterns Of Activity: Geographic

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Patterns Of Activity: NSA Correlations

• It Is Likely That Certain Types Of NSAs Support Each Other

– Strong Correlation Between NGOs And Businesses (.86)

• Terrorist Groups More Represented In Countries With More State Control

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Methodology

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Key Findings

• It Is Likely That Multiple Methods Of Analysis Create High Confidence And Prove Highly Efficient

• The Fundamental Method – Role Potential Spectrum– Government Sanctioned And Extra-Government Role

Potentials

– Represents Likely Role Potentials of Lawful And Unlawful NSAs

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NSA Role Potential Spectrum

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Analysis Of Competing Hypothesis (ACH)

• Provided Confidence In A Specific Country’s Role Potential Score

• Looked At Other Factors Score Might Not Consider

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Geospatial Analysis• Confirmed Geographic Patterns In Four Separate Indices With

Regards To NGOS, Businesses, And Terrorist Groups

NGOs In Sub-Saharan Africa

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Visualization• It Is Likely That Visualization Of The Data Allows For

Patterns To Be Easily Visible

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Wiki Information

• Login Wikispaces:– www.wikispaces.com– Username: billreynolds– Password: reynolds

• E-mail: – teamnonstateactors@gmail.com– Password: burkinafaso11

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Thank You

• Contact Information– Mark Blair: markcblair@gmail.com– Dan McNulty: dmcnul91@gmail.com– Brittany Monteparte: bmonte80@mercyhurst.edu– Andreea Neagu: aneagu16@mercyhurst.edu– Adrienne Sluga: asluga69@mercyhurst.edu