northwest power planning council the fifth plan’s draft conservation resource assessment summary...
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Northwest PowerPlanning Council
The Fifth Plan’s Draft The Fifth Plan’s Draft Conservation Resource Conservation Resource
AssessmentAssessment
Summary of Results To DateSummary of Results To Date
April 8, 2003April 8, 2003
slide 2
Northwest PowerPlanning Council
Council’s First Power Plan Was Council’s First Power Plan Was Adopted 20 Years Ago This MonthAdopted 20 Years Ago This Month
First Action PlanFirst Action Plan– Called upon Bonneville and Region’s Utilities to Called upon Bonneville and Region’s Utilities to
Develop and Implement Wide Array of Conservation Develop and Implement Wide Array of Conservation ProgramsPrograms
– Called upon the State and Local Governments to Adopt Called upon the State and Local Governments to Adopt More Energy Efficient Building CodesMore Energy Efficient Building Codes
– Called upon the Federal Government to Adopt Energy Called upon the Federal Government to Adopt Energy Efficiency Standards for Appliances and New Efficiency Standards for Appliances and New Manufactured Homes Manufactured Homes
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Northwest PowerPlanning Council
20 Years of Progress – 20 Years of Progress – Total PNW Conservation SavingsTotal PNW Conservation Savings
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Avera
ge M
egaw
att
s
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
BPA and Utility Programs State Codes & Federal Standards
Since 1980 Utility & BPA Programs, Since 1980 Utility & BPA Programs, Energy Codes & Federal Efficiency Energy Codes & Federal Efficiency Standards Have Produced Over Standards Have Produced Over 2600 aMW of Savings.2600 aMW of Savings.
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Northwest PowerPlanning Council
PNW Electricity Supply PNW Electricity Supply Resource Mix in 2000Resource Mix in 2000
Coal13.3%
Conservation10.2%
Gas7.8%
Nuclear3.9%
Other1.3% Petroleum
0.4%
Hydro63.9%
slide 5
Northwest PowerPlanning Council
But we haven’t done it all…But we haven’t done it all…
Changing electricity market and changing Changing electricity market and changing technology keep raising the bartechnology keep raising the bar
Task for the 5Task for the 5thth Power Plan Power Plan– Identify the cost-effective conservation Identify the cost-effective conservation
potentialpotential– Figure out how to make sure it gets Figure out how to make sure it gets
implementedimplemented
slide 6
Northwest PowerPlanning Council
Status of Conservation Status of Conservation Assessment for 5Assessment for 5thth Plan Plan
Residential SectorResidential Sector– ““Economic Potential” CompletedEconomic Potential” Completed
Commercial SectorsCommercial Sectors– Non-Interactive Measures CompletedNon-Interactive Measures Completed– Preliminary Assessment of Potential Lighting Efficiency Preliminary Assessment of Potential Lighting Efficiency
Improvements CompletedImprovements Completed– HVAC & Building “Shell” Assessment UnderwayHVAC & Building “Shell” Assessment Underway– Assessment will be revised when Commercial Building Assessment will be revised when Commercial Building
Stock Assessment research is completedStock Assessment research is completed Industrial & Agriculture SectorsIndustrial & Agriculture Sectors
– Data Collection UnderwayData Collection Underway– Results Expected by June 1Results Expected by June 1
slide 7
Northwest PowerPlanning Council
Scope of Residential Scope of Residential AssessmentAssessment
Three Building TypesThree Building Types– Single Family (up to & including 4-plex)Single Family (up to & including 4-plex)– Multifamily (5-plex & above)Multifamily (5-plex & above)– Manufactured/Mobile HomesManufactured/Mobile Homes
Three VintagesThree Vintages– Pre-1980 Pre-1980 – 1980 – 19921980 – 1992– Post-1992 (= 1983 MCS level construction)Post-1992 (= 1983 MCS level construction)
slide 8
Northwest PowerPlanning Council
Space Conditioning Space Conditioning Measures/Technologies & PracticesMeasures/Technologies & Practices
Thermal Shell ImprovementsThermal Shell Improvements Duct Sealing Duct Sealing Heating System Conversions to Air-Source Heating System Conversions to Air-Source
Heat PumpsHeat Pumps Heat Pump and Central Air Conditioning Heat Pump and Central Air Conditioning
System Efficiency UpgradesSystem Efficiency Upgrades
slide 9
Northwest PowerPlanning Council
Non-Space Conditioning Non-Space Conditioning Measures/Technologies & PracticesMeasures/Technologies & Practices
Water HeatingWater Heating– Heat Pump & Solar Water HeatersHeat Pump & Solar Water Heaters– Efficient TanksEfficient Tanks– Waste Water Heat RecoveryWaste Water Heat Recovery
LightingLighting Major AppliancesMajor Appliances
– DishwashersDishwashers– Clothes WashersClothes Washers– RefrigeratorsRefrigerators– Room Air ConditionersRoom Air Conditioners
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Northwest PowerPlanning Council
Residential Sector Residential Sector Conservation Supply CurveConservation Supply Curve
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
Levelized Cost ( Mills/ kWh in 2000$)
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Cumulative Technical Potential (aMW)Economic Cumulative Potential (aMW)
Summary of Residential Sector Summary of Residential Sector Conservation Resource PotentialConservation Resource Potential
by Major End Use by Major End Use
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
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y 2
025
Summary of Residential Sector Summary of Residential Sector Conservation Resource PotentialConservation Resource Potential
for Appliances for Appliances
Clothes Washers
95%
Refrigerators1%Dishwashers
4%
290 aMW
15 aMW5 aMW
Summary of Residential Sector Summary of Residential Sector Conservation Resource PotentialConservation Resource Potential
for Water Heating for Water Heating
Efficient Tanks29%
Waste Water Heat Recovery
4%
Heat Pump Water Heaters
67%
95 aMW
225 aMW
15 aMW
Summary of Residential Sector Summary of Residential Sector Conservation Resource PotentialConservation Resource Potential
for Space Conditioning for Space Conditioning
System Commissioning
4%
Air Conditioner Upgrades
1%
Weatherization14%
New Construction7%
Heat Pump Conversions
27%
Duct Sealing21%
Heat Pump Upgrades
26%
160 aMW
125 aMW
80 aMW 40 aMW
150 aMW
5 aMW
20 aMW
slide 15
Northwest PowerPlanning Council
Scope of Commercial Scope of Commercial AssessmentAssessment
Twelve building types:Twelve building types:– Office (2), Retail (2), Restaurant, Grocery, School (2), Office (2), Retail (2), Restaurant, Grocery, School (2),
Hospital, Warehouse, Lodging, OtherHospital, Warehouse, Lodging, Other
Four vintages corresponding to building code Four vintages corresponding to building code changes pre-1980, 1989, 1995, and 2001changes pre-1980, 1989, 1995, and 2001
Ten non-building activities: Ten non-building activities: – Water, wastewater, refrigeration, computers, street Water, wastewater, refrigeration, computers, street
lighting, traffic signals, power supplies, transformers … lighting, traffic signals, power supplies, transformers …
slide 16
Northwest PowerPlanning Council
Commercial Buildings Commercial Buildings Measures/Technologies & PracticesMeasures/Technologies & Practices
LightingLighting– Continued improvement in efficacy of fluorescent, Continued improvement in efficacy of fluorescent,
incandescent and HID systemsincandescent and HID systems– Daylighting & ControlsDaylighting & Controls
Heating, Ventilating & Air Conditioning (HVAC)Heating, Ventilating & Air Conditioning (HVAC)– Equipment efficiency improvesEquipment efficiency improves– Commissioning Commissioning – ControlsControls– Better DesignBetter Design
EnvelopeEnvelope– Better windowsBetter windows
slide 17
Northwest PowerPlanning Council
New Commercial Buildings New Commercial Buildings Measures/Technologies & PracticesMeasures/Technologies & Practices
Strong energy codes exist in OR & WA, butStrong energy codes exist in OR & WA, but
ppotential beyond code is significantotential beyond code is significant– Integrated Building Design 20-30% better than Integrated Building Design 20-30% better than
code possible & cost-effectivecode possible & cost-effective– Standard practice can be improved Standard practice can be improved
» Example: Lighting power density 30% less than Example: Lighting power density 30% less than code possible and cost-effective (1.1 to 0.8 w/sf)code possible and cost-effective (1.1 to 0.8 w/sf)
slide 18
Northwest PowerPlanning Council
Commercial Sector Non-Commercial Sector Non-Building ConservationBuilding Conservation
340 MWa in the 20-30 mills/kWh range 340 MWa in the 20-30 mills/kWh range – Sewage treatment 74 MWa at 22 millsSewage treatment 74 MWa at 22 mills– LED traffic lights 14 MWa at 30 millsLED traffic lights 14 MWa at 30 mills– Exit signs 52 MWa at 27 millsExit signs 52 MWa at 27 mills– Water supply 30 MWa at 20 millsWater supply 30 MWa at 20 mills– Network PC management 73 MWa at 27 millsNetwork PC management 73 MWa at 27 mills– Packaged refrigeration 100 MWa ~30 millsPackaged refrigeration 100 MWa ~30 mills
slide 19
Northwest PowerPlanning Council
Commercial Sector Commercial Sector Conservation Supply CurveConservation Supply Curve
Still under constructionStill under construction LightingLighting
– 250 MWa @ 20-30 mills in 2025, existing buildings250 MWa @ 20-30 mills in 2025, existing buildings– Another 150MWa retrofit in near term at <20 millsAnother 150MWa retrofit in near term at <20 mills– New buildings not estimated yet (first cut ~200MWa)New buildings not estimated yet (first cut ~200MWa)
Non-BuildingNon-Building– 340 MWa in the 20-30 mill range 2025340 MWa in the 20-30 mill range 2025
HVAC & WindowsHVAC & Windows– Pending and significant Pending and significant – Similar to last plan ~ 350MWa 10 to 60 millsSimilar to last plan ~ 350MWa 10 to 60 mills
slide 20
Northwest PowerPlanning Council
Industrial Sector AssessmentIndustrial Sector Assessment
Historically, analysis of potential for Historically, analysis of potential for efficiency improvements in this sector have efficiency improvements in this sector have been far less detailed than other sectorsbeen far less detailed than other sectors
Fifth Plan’s Estimate may be even more soFifth Plan’s Estimate may be even more so– Resource potential contingent upon future Resource potential contingent upon future
regional industrial mix and processesregional industrial mix and processes– Given “globalization” of many PNW electricity Given “globalization” of many PNW electricity
intensive industries, the region’s future intensive industries, the region’s future industrial mix is highly uncertainindustrial mix is highly uncertain
slide 21
Northwest PowerPlanning Council
Industrial Sector Assessment Industrial Sector Assessment ProcessProcess
Interview “Facility/Energy” Managers identified Interview “Facility/Energy” Managers identified by ICNU as representative of major PNW by ICNU as representative of major PNW industrial electricity users to assess:industrial electricity users to assess:– Current and planned levels of investment in efficiency Current and planned levels of investment in efficiency
improvementsimprovements– Potential impact of “globalization” and other factors on future Potential impact of “globalization” and other factors on future
capital investments in NW facilitiescapital investments in NW facilities– Ability to respond to utility assistance to improve efficiencyAbility to respond to utility assistance to improve efficiency
Use results to estimate potential “share” of Use results to estimate potential “share” of industrial electricity use that could cost-effectively industrial electricity use that could cost-effectively be made more efficientbe made more efficient
Fourth Plan’s Estimate = 8% savings (670 aMW)Fourth Plan’s Estimate = 8% savings (670 aMW)
slide 22
Northwest PowerPlanning Council
Agricultural SectorAgricultural Sector
Past Plan’s Focused Exclusively on Irrigated Past Plan’s Focused Exclusively on Irrigated Agriculture Efficiency Potential Agriculture Efficiency Potential – System Efficiency Improvements (i.e., more efficient System Efficiency Improvements (i.e., more efficient
“pumps and plumbing”)“pumps and plumbing”)
– Improved Water Management (i.e., “just enough and Improved Water Management (i.e., “just enough and just in time”)just in time”)
Fifth Plan will also include “on farm” agricultural Fifth Plan will also include “on farm” agricultural processes, such as milking and milk processingprocesses, such as milking and milk processing
Fourth Plan’s Estimate = 40 aMWFourth Plan’s Estimate = 40 aMW
slide 23
Northwest PowerPlanning Council
PRELIMINARYPRELIMINARY AssessmentAssessment of Cost- of Cost-Effective Conservation PotentialEffective Conservation Potential
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Cost-Effective Potential(aMW in 2025)
Agricultural Sector - 25 aMW
Non-DSI Industrial Sector - 350 aMW
Commercial Sector Non-Building Measures - 300 aMW
HVAC & Window Efficiency Improvements - 200 aMW
New Commercial Building Lighting - 200 aMW
Existing Commercial Buildings Lighting - 250 aMW
Residential Space Conditioning - 575 aMW
Residential Lighting - 660 aMW
Residential Water Heating - 335 aMW
Residential Appliances - 305 aMW
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