nuclear power program in asia/asean and the malaysian experience noramly muslim ukm anas muhamad...

Nuclear power program in ASIA/ASEAN and the Malaysian experience

Noramly Muslim UKMAnas Muhamad Pauzi, UNITENSyukri Yahya, KAIST

Outline

Worldwide

AsiaASEAN

+3ASEAN

Malaysia

Worldwide

AsiaASEAN

+3ASEAN

Malaysia

Worldwide - Asia

Worldwide Asia % Asia

Num Mwe Num MWe Num

MWe

In Operation 434 373,892

114 85,050

27 23

Under Construction

67 67,709 46 47,781

69 71

Planned 159 173,340

101 111,997

63 65

Proposed 318 359,750

216 230595

68 64

Comparison Nuclear Reactor ASIA and Worldwide

Operable: Connected to the grid;Under Construction: First concrete for reactor poured, or major refurbishment under way;Planned: Approvals, funding or major commitment in place, mostly expected in operation within 8-10 years;Proposed: Specific program or site proposals, expected operation mostly within 15 years.

Worldwide

AsiaASEAN

+3ASEAN

Malaysia

AsiaLand area: 44 million km2

Countries: 49

Population : - 4.16 billion (60% world pol- Population density: 87/km2

GDP-Nominal: USD 20 trillion

Asia

32%

68%Asia

Non -Asia

31%

69%

NPP PlannedNPP Under Construction

Asia

Non -Asia

Countries N Reactor

China 28

India 7

Japan 4*

South Korea

3

Pakistan 2

UAE 2

Countries N Reacto

r

Countries

NReactor

China 49 UAE 2

India 18 Bangladesh

2

Japan 9* Indonesia

2

South Korea

6 Kazakhstan

2

Vietnam 4 Iran 1

Turkey 4 Jordan 1

Worldwide

AsiaASEAN

+3ASEAN

Malaysia

ASEAN and ASEAN +3

ASEAN

1) Malaysia

2) Indonesia

3) Thailand

4) Singapore

5) Philippines

6) Brunei

7) Vietnam

8) Myanmar

9) Laos

10) Cambodia

+3China

Japan

Korea

Association of

South East Asian

Nations(ASEAN)

Common Markets? ASEAN/ASEAN+3 and the EU

ASEAN ASEAN +3 European Union

10 countries 13 Countries 27 Countries

615 million population

3.0 Billion population 500 million population

USD 2.3 trillion GDP USD 16.5 trillion GDP USD 18 trillion GDP

Power demand growth

(6—9%/year)

Power demand growth

(6—9%/year)

Power demand growth

(1—2.5%/year)

Comparison ASEAN +3 and EUASEAN +3 European UnionASEAN Action PlansASEAN +3 (Future

Cooperations)

Treaty embraced all nuclear activities

ASEAN (Weak political will)ASEAN +3 (Strong

Institutions and political will)

Strong institution with political will

ASEAN basic infrastructure and RnD (Research reactors), power

gridASEAN +3 (Strong

infrastructure, RnD, nuclear engineering capabilities,

nuclear fuel cycle)

Strong and independent nuclear engineering, construction, and nuclear fuel cycle, strong RnD and Power Grid commitment

National commitments and nascent Regional Cooperation

US, European and Russian Commitment

Worldwide

AsiaASEAN

+3ASEA

N

Malaysia

ASEAN

Land area : 4.46 million km2 (3% of world land area)Population: 601 million (8.8% of world population)

GDP total : USD $3.084 trillion (ninth largest)GDP per capita : USD $5,131

* data as of 2012

BACKGROUND OF ASEAN AND IMPACT OF 2011 NUCLEAR ACCIDENT

ASEAN Energy Resources

Source: EC-ASEAN COGEN III

Source: EC-ASEAN COGEN III

ASEAN Fuels for Power Generation

ASEAN Power Grid – Geopolitical Issues

MYA

NM

AR

PHILIPPIN

ES

CAMBODIA

SUMATRA

INDONESIA

SARAWAK

BRUNEI

P. MALAYSIA

PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINAYUNNAN

BATAM

VI ETNAM

WES

T

KALIM

ANTA

N

SINGAPORE

8

11

14

10

6

12

43

1

7

2

5

9

13

15

The needs for nuclear energy may be reduced with ASEAN Power Grid (emulating Euro Energy Grid)

Existing Interconnection• Pen Malaysia –Singapore• Pen Malaysia – Thailand

Possible Interconnection• Pen Malaysia – Sarawak• Pen Malaysia - Sumatera

Indonesia

Before Fukushima:Most prep work in Phase 1 completed. Ready to pursue Phase 2.

After Fukushima:Active prep but NO final decision.

Source: Wikipedia

Before Fukushima:5 units (1st COD 2020)

After Fukushima:Deferred

Thailand

Source: Wikipedia

Before Fukushima:PFS on nuclear energy (no COD target).

After Fukushima:“Fukushima crisis would not derail Singapore’s pre-feasibility study onnuclear energy” - Senior Minister of State for Trade, Industry and Education, Apr 2011.

Singapore

Source: Wikipedia

Before Fukushima:Bataan NPP mothballed in 1986.

After Fukushima:Not planning, but expressed interest.

The Philippines

Source: Wikipedia

Before Fukushima:Ninh Tuan NPP, 4 units (1st COD 2020)

After Fukushima:Vietnam moves ahead with the nuclear plans despite Fukushima

Vietnam

Source: Wikipedia

Source: EC-ASEAN COGEN III

ASEAN Tariff (€ cents/kWh)

Will ASEAN Go Nuclear?

On Going Program Considering No Plan

Vietnam Myanmar Brunei Darussalam

Indonesia Cambodia

Malaysia Laos

Thailand

Singapore

Philippines

Worldwide

AsiaASEAN

+3ASEAN

Malaysia

MalaysiaMap of Malaysia with population distribution

Source: Wikipedia

Energy Production, Supply Chain and Regional Demand in Malaysia

Need for Nuclear Energy in Peninsular

National Electricity Generation Capacity & Fuel-Mix Projection

Plan for first NPP

TARGET MILESTONES FOR NUCLEAR POWER DEVELOPMENT IN MALAYSIA

MILESTONE 1: JUNE 2009Ready to make a knowledgeable commitment

to a nuclear power programmeCabinet decision for nuclear energy to be a fuel option post-

2020.

MILESTONE 2: 2015Ready to invite bids for the first nuclear power plant

based on the timeline for EPP11 under OGE sector in the ETP.

MILESTONE 3 : 2021Ready to commission and operate the first nuclear power plantbased on the timeline for EPP11 under OGE sector in the ETP.

34

Thank You.