observations of em precursors of earthquakes from ... · observations of em precursors of...

SCEC-CSEP Workshop on

Testing External Forecasts and Predictions

Los Angeles, May 7-9, 2013

Observations of EM Precursors

of Earthquakes from

Magnetometers and EQLs .

.

Presented by : Jorge Heraud jheraud@pucp.edu.pe .

Authors : Jorge Heraud (1), Victor Centa (1)

Daniel Menendez(1), Neils Vilchez(1)

Tom Bleier (2), Clark Dunson (2)

(1) Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, Lima, Peru

(2) QuakeFinder, Palo Alto, CA

EQLs ? (Pre-seismic, of course)

PRE-SEISMIC EQLs

The Lima Mw 8.9 (9.5 ?) EQ

October 28, 1746

Preseismic EQLs were observed by the captain

in charge of the prison and by prisoners doing

forced labor at San Lorenzo Is., an estimated

2 km from the epicenter, on October 7, 1746,

21 days before the EQ.

CASE # 1

Colonial times prison at San Lorenzo Is.

where preseismic EQLs where reported

On October 7, 1746, 21 days before the

M 8.9-9.5 (?)Mega-earthquake

COSEISMIC EQLs

The Pisco, Peru Mw 8.0 EQ

August 15, 2007

caused EQLs to be observed by literally tens

of thousands of people from ~100 km south to

~250 km north of the epicenter, locally at the

time of the EQ. Time stamped, digital color

video evidence obtained at PUCP.

CASE # 2

PRE-SEISMIC EQL

The Lima Ml 4.3 EQ

July 29, 2012, 12:30 LT

EQLs were reported above San Lorenzo Is.

on July 27, 2012, 22:35 LT ~38 hours

before the EQ by a highly qualified eye

witness. The epicenter was 2 km away.

CASE # 3

CASE EQLs OBSERVED EARTHQUAKE TIMING AND DISTANCE ------- --------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------

# DATE LOCAL TYPE DATE LOCAL MAG. LEAD EPICENTER

TIME TIME TIME ---------------- --------- ---------------- ---------------- -------- ------------- ------------ ---------------------- 1 1746-1007 02:30 Pre-seismic 1746-1028 22:30 8.9 (est.) 21 days ~2 km NE

2 2007-0815 18:41 Co-seismic 2007-0815 18:41 8.0 none ~160 km SSE

3 2012-0727 22:30 Pre-seismic 2012-0729 12:30 4.3 38 hours ~2 km NE

Observed EQLs and their

relation to earthquakes,

for San Lorenzo Is.

Lima, Peru

PULSES ?

(Magnetometers, of course)

CASE # 1

AN EARTHQUAKE WAS “PREDICTED” ONE

WEEK BEFORE THE EQ OCCURED

- EM pulses occured on October 7, 2010 and continuously recorded.

- EM pulses were first observed, after processing the recorded data,

on October 15 and communicated to our research partners,

QuakeFinder on the same day.

- The possibility of the occurence of the EQ was comunicated to the

Rector (President) and 3 vicerectors of PUCP via email on

October 18, 5 days before the EQ, with the following content:

“..we think a medium size earthquake will occur near our site in

Los Palos, Tacna, Peru, on October 22 or 23”.

- The Ml 4.2 Earthquake occurred 75 km west of our site on October 22

at 3 am LT.

- If the data had been observed earlier, lead time would have been14 days

CASE # 1 (continued)

ANOTHER EARTHQUAKE WAS OBSERVED

ALMOST TWO YEARS LATER WITH THE

SAME EPICENTER AND AZIMUTH OF THE

EM PULSES

- EM pulses occured on September 3-4, 2012, data recorded.

- EM pulses were first observed, after processing the data,

after the EQ had occured.

- The Ml 4.3 Earthquake occurred 75 km west of our site on

September 15 at 10:39 am LT, the epicenter was 400 m

from the October 22, 2010 epicenter.

- Azimuth of the EM pulses was 1.4° off from of the EQ azimuth.

Monopolar pulses that had been recorded

October 6 and 7, 2010 at the Los Palos,

Tacna, Peru site, were observed October 15

and an alert sent cober 18.

CASE # 2

FIRST CASE OF TRIANGULATION OF TWO EQs

TWO EARTHQUAKES, 8 DAYS APPART

(subcases A and B in the next slides)

OCCURED ON APRIL 04 AND 12, 2013.

THEIR EM PULSES WERE OBSERVED AT TWO

MAGNETOMETER SITES, 55.6 km APPART

4 AND 10 DAYS, RESPECTIVELY,

BEFORE THE EQs OCCURED.

-.

(A) POST OCCURRENCE

OBSERVATION

TRIANGULATION OF PULSES FROM

TWO MAGNETOMETERS 55.6 km APPART

Earthquake of April 04, 2013

EM pulses recorded March 20, 2013 (before the April 04 EQ)

at AUCALLAMA: Lat 14° 22’ 34.05” S

Lon 75° 41’ 22.61” W

SAN LORENZO: Lat 12° 05’ 3.63” S

Lon 77° 12’ 46.56” W

Azimuth at:

AUCALLAMA

MARCH 20

2013

Azimuth at:

SAN LORENZO

MARCH 20

2013

AUCALLAMA

SAN LORENZO Is.

INSTITUTO DE RADIOASTRONOMIA

PONTIFICIA UNIVERSIDAD CATOLICA

DEL PERU

Signals received:

EM : 2013-0320

SEISMIC : 2013-0404

Difference: 14 days

Magnitude: Ml 4.1

(A)

55.6

km

(B) POST OCCURRENCE

OBSERVATION

TRIANGULATION OF PULSES FROM

TWO MAGNETOMETERS 55.6 km APPART

Earthquake of April 12, 2013

EM Pulses recorded April 02, 2013 (before the April 12 EQ)

at AUCALLAMA: Lat 14° 22’ 34.05” S

Lon 75° 41’ 22.61” W

SAN LORENZO: Lat 12° 05’ 3.63” S

Lon 77° 12’ 46.56” W

Azimuth at:

AUCALLAMA

APRIL 02

2013

Azimuth at:

SAN LORENZO

APRIL 02

2013

AUCALLAMA

SAN LORENZO

INSTITUTO DE RADIOASTRONOMIA

PONTIFICIA UNIVERSIDAD CATOLICA

DEL PERU

Signals received:

EM : 2013- 0402

SEISMIC : 2013 -0412

DIFFERENCE: 10 days

Magnitude Ml : 3.8

(B)

THANK YOU

SPONSORS !

QuakeFinder Inc. (California, USA)

Telefónica del Perú S.A.A. (Peru)

Trimble Navigation Ltd. (California, USA)

Site hosts (Peru) (Edith Maldonado, Renato Casaretto, Jorge Mamani, Municipio de Ite, Cesar Biondi,

Marina del Peru, Julio Campos, Juan Monroy, Humberto Peña, Elias Alparcana)