ontario: building on demand · growth and stability -50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000...
Post on 31-Jul-2020
0 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
Ontario: Building on Demand
January 2018
Outline
Demand Price
Outlook
Ontario Price
Spreads and Basis
Ontario Corn Fed
Trade
Demand Price Outlook
Ontario Price
Spreads and
Basis
Ontario Corn Fed
Trade
Source: qz.com
Source: munchies.vice.com
Source: munchies.vice.com
U.S. Meat Demand
9091
9293
94
9596
97
98
99
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90
De
flat
ed
Me
at C
PI
Beef, Chicken and Pork Consumption
U.S. Meat Demand
9091
929394
959697
9899
00
0102
03
0405
0607080910
1112 13
14
15
16
17
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94
Def
late
d M
eat
CP
I
Beef, Chicken and Pork Consumption
Canadian Beef Demand
90
9192
93 9495
9697 98 9900
0102030405
06 0708
0910
11
1213
14
1516
17e
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
24 26 28 30 32 34 36
De
flat
ed
CP
I Be
ef
Per Capita Consumption (Kilograms)
Nov. 9, 2015
Summary
Outline
Demand
Price Outlook
U.S. focus
Ontario Price
Spreads and
Basis
Ontario Corn Fed
Trade
U.S. Cattle Slaughter
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17e
He
ad M
illio
n
2018?
U.S. Cow Inventory
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15
Mill
ion
he
ad
05
06 0708
091011
1213
14
15
16
17e
R² = 0.8214
21,000
22,000
23,000
24,000
25,000
26,000
27,000
28,000
29,000
20,000 20,500 21,000 21,500 22,000 22,500 23,000 23,500
00
0 H
ead
Fe
d S
lau
ghte
r
000 Head July Inventory
July Steer and Heifer Inventory to 1 Year Lagged Slaughter
04
05
06
07
0809
10
11
1213
14
15
16
17
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
28,500 29,000 29,500 30,000 30,500 31,000 31,500 32,000 32,500 33,000
Slau
ghte
r 0
00
Hea
d
January Cows 000 Head
Cow Inventory versus Cow Slaughter
U.S. Cattle Slaughter
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17e 18F
He
ad M
illio
n
U.S. Beef Supply vs Price
90919293
9495 9697
9899
0001
02
03 0405
06
0708
09
10
11
1213
14
15
16 17e18f
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
23 24 25 26 27 28 29
Live
Pri
ce U
S$/c
wt
Domestic Supply Billion Pounds (production-exports+imports)
Summary
Outline
Demand Price
Outlook
Ontario Price Spreads and
Basis
Ontario Corn Fed
Trade
Transport, Regional Supply
and Demand
Price differential,
spread, basis
Ontario-Alberta Price Spread 2008-2017
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$/c
wt
Ontario-Texas Price Spread
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
JN FE MR AP MA JN JL AU SE OC NV DE
C$
/cw
t Li
ve
11-15 Average 2016 2017
Ontario-Texas Spread 2008-2017
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$/c
wt
Alberta-Texas Spread 2008-2017
-15
-13
-11
-9
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
C$
/ckg
Eastern Canada Slaughter Steers and Heifers
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
00
0 H
ead
Ontario Fed Cattle Slaughter
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
He
ad
Eastern Canada Fed Cattle Slaughter Exports
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
He
ad
Summary
Outline
Demand Price
Outlook
Ontario Price
Spreads and
Basis
Ontario Corn Fed Trade
Growth and
Stability -
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017H
ead
Ontario Corn Fed Slaughter
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
OC
FB S
har
e
OCFB Share of Total Inspected Fed Cattle Slaughter
Eastern Canada-U.S. Beef Trade
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Mill
ion
kgs
Exports
Imports
Corn Fed Slaughter vs Beef Imports
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Mill
ion
Kgs
Im
po
rts
He
ad S
lau
ghte
red
Adding Value to Trading Partners
Japan, China, Saudi Arabia and UAE with
interest coming in from Indonesia,
Singapore and Korea.
Adding value
Added demand
Added seller leverage
Summary
Outline
Demand Price
Outlook
Ontario Price
Spreads and
Basis
Ontario Corn Fed Trade
U.S. Exports
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Bill
ion
USD
Canadian Beef Export Values
Eastern Canadian-U.S. Beef Export Value
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Mill
ion
C$
U.S. Beef Supply vs Price
90919293
9495 9697
9899
0001
02
03 0405
06
0708
09
10
11
1213
14
15
16 17e18f
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
23 24 25 26 27 28 29
Live
Pri
ce U
S$/c
wt
Domestic Supply Billion Pounds (production-exports+imports)
Yes Justin you already told
me you were a feminist
If this clown starts crying
again, I’m outa here
Summary
Outline
Demand Price
Outlook
Ontario Price
Spreads and
Basis
Ontario Corn Fed
Trade Things I Hate
Social licence is more
important than ever. Governments may be able to issue permits but only communities can grant permission.”
Summary
top related