open en online onderwijs en de toekomst van het nederlandse hoger onderwijs - timo kos - 2013

Open & Online Education & de toekomst van het Nederlandse hoger onderwijs

Impact analyse & scenariostudie

Timo Kos

@timokos

/timokos

slideshare.net/timokos

/timokos or /mooc-scoop

@KhanAcademyNL

timo@khanacademy.nl

www.khanacademy.nl

Directeur Onderwijs & Studentenzaken

Content

0. Introduction

1. State of play

2. Impact analysis

3. Scenarios

4. Questions

Introduction

Foto: Ulrike Reinhard Learning Stations in Khajuraho, Rural India

1.“The number of higher education students in the world is expected to quadruple,

from around 100 million in 2000

to 400 million in 2030”

To accommodate them we need to build

9.615 universities in 30 yearsThat is 3 universities For 30.000 students

per week

2.“Students expect to choose what they learn, how they

learn and when they learn”

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Yet, this is how we teach

• S

O2E State of play

MOOCs: accelerating developments

What the MOOC?

•Massive •Open•Online•Course

Image CC-BY-NC Gordon Lockhart:http://gbl55.wordpress.com/2011/03/08/cck11-man-this-mooc-is-something-else/

Disruptive innovation or Hype?“There is a tsunami coming. I can't tell you exactly how it’s going to

break, but my goal is to try to surf it, not to just stand there.”

John Hennesy (former president Stanford), Wall Street Journal (june, 2012)

13

Open Online Education (O2E): four related and interacting developments

Open Distance Learning (ODL): dating back to the early 20th century. Now dominated by the Open Universities

14

Online Education (OE): growing market & marketshares

15

‘Change Course: Ten Years of Tracking Online Education in the United States’ (2013)

16

Online Education (OE): popular programs

Table from ‘Study of UK online learning final report’, University of Oxford, 2010

Online education (OE): student motives

17

‘Online College Students 2012’, The Learning House and Aslanian Market Research

http://ocwconsortium.org

Definitions of OCW & OER

43 million unique

visitors per year

Growth & use of Open Course Ware

MOOC = Massive Open Online Courses (I)A. Early pioneers (2007/2008) of connectivism & social learning (now cMOOC)

21

David Wiley (Brigham Young University)

George Siemens (Athabasca University)

Stephen Downes (National Research Councel Canada)

MOOC = Massive Open Online Courses (II)B. Pioneers (2011-2012) of free massive open online classes(now xMOOCs)

22

Salman Khan

Prof. Peter Norvig & Prof. Sebastian Thrun (Stanford)

Prof Andrew Nge & Prof. Daphne Koller (Stanford)

Prof. Anant Agarwal (MIT)

xMOOC platforms (USA)

introducing new (non-formal) certificates.

24

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MOOC = Massive Open Online Courses (II)Evolution of MOOCs

‘MOOC’s and implications for Higher Education. A Whitepaper’, (JISC, CETIS; March 2013). Relaties tussen ODL, OE, OER/OCW & MOOC’s., incl. relation between MIT OCW,

Khanacademy & xMOOC

Revenue models?• license model: a share of gross revenue between platform provider

and universities offering courses hosted on the platform for tuition paid degee programs or fees for additional services to students (e.g. coaching)

• Administrative fees: for certification on proctored exam locations

• Recruitment fees: from corporations for recruiting talented students

• Premium/Fremium model: free and upgraded paid versions of the MOOCs and services, resembling the ‘freemium’ and ‘premium’ payment models of other internet services

• Advertisement: monetizing on the scale and social characteristics of users of the platform.

State of play - NL

Delft: Online and Campus Education

Massive Open Online Courses

(MOOCs)

Open Course Ware (OCW)

Online Distance Education

Campus Education

• Learning Activities & Course Materials

• Free• Enrolled students only, massive

numbers• Bachelors Level• Certificate of Completion

• Course Materials• Free• Big Exposure, Worldwide

audience• Both Bachelor and Master

level• No interaction with faculty• No accredited certificate

• Learning Activities & Course Materials

• Paid enrollment• Enrolled students only, limited

numbers• Master level• Accredited Course Certificate• Full Master Degree

• On-campus Education• Top-class education and research

facilities• World famous university library• Active student societies• Great opportunities to participate in

special student projects

Platform

DelftX Courses

• Spring 2014:• Introduction to Aerospace Engineering• Next Generation Infrastructures

57,500

27,500

31

sMOOCs: emerging student patterns

‘Emerging Student Patterns in MOOCs: A (Revised) Graphical View’, Michael Feldstein (maart 2013)

Enrollment & student activity

United States

India

Brazil

Spain

Nigeria

United Kingdom

ColombiaCanada

Netherlands Mexico

Water

United States

IndiaBrazil

Spain

Pakistan

United Kingdom

ColombiaNigeria

Netherlands Mexico

Solar

MOOCs in NL

EdX

Delft X

• Solar Energy 54.500

• Water Treatment 27.500

{Next Generation Infrastructures & Introduction to aerospace engineering} n.a.

Coursera

Leiden

• The law of the EU 46,000

• Terrorism and Counterterrorism 26,000

Universiteit van Amsterdam

• Introduction into communication Science (before on Sakai) (1)6.000

TU Eindhoven

{Sports & Building Aearodynamics} n.a.

OpenUpEd

Open Universiteit

• E-learning (in Nederlands) 600

Impact

“When the outstanding becomes so easily

accessible,average is over.”

Thomas Friedman:“The World is Flat”

Is it a HYPE or a

DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION?

Different perspectives I: Hype Cycle

Gartner Hype Cycle, bron: Wikipedia

Peter Thiel: Higher Education bubble

The theory of disruptive innovationʺ ʺ

„A process by which a product or

service takes root initially in simple

applications at the bottom of a

market and then relentlessly moves

‘up market’, eventually displacing

established competitors”

‒ Professor Clayton M. Christensen, Harvard Business School

Author of Disrupting Class (2008) and The Innovative University (2011)

Low ranked (under) graduatedegree programs

High ranked (under) graduate degree

programs

Top ranked (under) graduate degree programs

Different perspectives II: Disruptive innovation theory

Moody’s Investors Service, Credit Outlook Higher Education Institutions USA, US Public Finance, Sept 2012

42

Different perspectives II: Disruptive innovation theory

Different perspectives I: Unbundling

Scenario’s

The future?

44

• Accredited Massive Online Master Degree Program

• Price: $ 6600,- for 3 years in stead of $ 40.000 per year

• Number of students: 10.000 in stead of 300 per year

• Number of faculty extra: 8 at Georgia Tech (for content)

• Revenu model: 60% for Georgia Tech, 40% for Udactity

1. Topuniversiteiten kunnen hun reputatie op onderzoeksgebied nu ook uitbouwen op onderwijsgebied en wereldwijd toonaangevend worden in de productie van de inhoud van online curricula

2. Grootschalige universiteiten met onvoldoende academische onderscheidend vermogen kunnen eigen MOOC’s of andermans MOOC’s inzetten in hun onderwijsprogramma’s en daarmee een goede prijs-kwaliteitverhouding blijven bieden voor de blended opleidingen die zij aanbieden aan hun betalende campus-studenten

3. Gespecialiseerde universiteit die zich richten op een academische en daarin tot de absolute wereldtop.

4. Lokale universiteiten die een belangrijke bijdrage leveren aan de lokale economie en in toenemende mate gebruikmaken van de MOOC’s die andere universiteiten ontwikkelen.

Scenario’s

Scenario matrix

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Thank you