outline how do we define space weather? how do we observe it? what drives it (solar activity and...
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OutlineOutline
• How do we define space weather?
• How do we observe it?
• What drives it (solar activity and solar phenomena)?
• Which are the impacts on:
the atmosphere and technological sysytems?
• How can we forecast it?
• What service exist?
• Today’s space weather.
The SunThe Sun
Diameter:1 390 000 km(109 x Earth)
Mass:1.99x1030 kg(330 000 x Earth)
Density:Core 151x103 kg/m-3
Average 1.41x103 kg/m-3
The Sun consits of:H (≈ 90%)Helium (≈ 10%)C,N,O ( ≈ 0.1%)
Temperature:Core 15 millionPhotosphere 5800 K Chromosphere 4300-104KCorona 1-30 million K 4 protons --> He + 2 positrons + 2 neutrinos + 2 fotons (26.2 MeV)
When the solar magnetic field emerges thru the solar suface sunspots appearWhen the solar magnetic field emerges thru the solar suface sunspots appear
ChromosphereChromosphere
Prominence
Solar flare The chromosphere in H-alpha
TRACE TRACE
The solar corona seen at solar eclipsesThe solar corona seen at solar eclipses
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The heating of the solar coronaThe heating of the solar corona
Coronal mass ejectionsCoronal mass ejections
CMEs cause the most severe space weather effects
CMEs cause the most severe space weather effects
• Halo CMEs are most geoeffective
• Mass: 5-50 billion tons
• Frequency: 3.5/day (max), 0.2/day (min)
• Speed: 200-2000 km/s
Solar flares and sun quakesSolar flares and sun quakes
The solar windThe solar wind
• Predicted from comet studies in 1940 ties
• Theoretically predicted by Parker 1959
• Measusred in situ 1960
The source of the fast solar wind The source of the fast solar wind
Solar windSolar wind
Typical values
V: 450km/sN: 5particles/cm3
T: 105 K B: 5nT
The solar wind consistsof protons,electrons and3-4% alpha particles
Computation of the coronal magnetic field
Computation of the coronal magnetic field
Daily observations of the solar photospheric magnetic field at WSO are used for computation of the coronal magnetic field according to the ”potential fieldmodel”. ∇ ×B=0,B=−∇ψ
∇ •B=0,∇2ψ =0
ψ (r,θ,φ) =RRr
⎛ ⎝
⎞ ⎠
n+1
(gnmcosmφ+hn
msinmφ)Pnm(θ)
⎡
⎣ ⎢ ⎤
⎦ ⎥ m=0
n
∑n=1
∞
∑
Br =−∂ψ∂r
,Bθ =−1r∂ψ∂θ
,Bφ =−1
rsinθ∂ψ∂φ
Bl =Br sinθcos(φ−φ0)+Bθ cosθcos(φ−φ0)−Bφsin(φ−φ0)
Computed Br at R=2.5RsComputed Br at R=2.5Rs
The heliospheric current sheetThe heliospheric current sheet
Fast continuous solar wind fromcoronal holes
The solar wind The solar wind
Fast halo CME withsolar flares andsolar proton events
Heliospheric current sheet
The solar wind Bz, V, and n determinethe effect of the solar plasma.
Earth’s responseEarth’s response
• Geomagnetic disturbances
• Aurora
• Ionospheric disturbances
• Climate and weather changes
Earth’s magnetosphere and current systems
Geomagnetic stormsGeomagnetic storms
Earth’s magnetosphere and ionosphere
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Aurora ovalAurora oval
The aurora observed inStockholm
Aurora was observed in Italy 6-7 April and on July 15-16, 2000!
Aurora during severe solar stormsAurora during severe solar storms
Space weather effects on technological systems
Space weather effects on technological systems
Satellite anomaliesSatellite anomalies
Satellite anomalies of July 14-16, 2000 eventSatellite anomalies of July 14-16, 2000 event
The proton event causedproblems for ACE,SOHO, Ørsted, Japanese X-ray satellite,star trackers on boardcommercial satellites.
Proton flux (pfu) > 10 MeV,24000 pfu (July 15, 12.30 UT). Third largest!
Largest 43 000 pfu, (March 24, 1991). Second 40 000 pfu (October 20, 1989).
Solar proton events are dangerous to man in space
Solar proton events are dangerous to man in space
Between Apollo 16 and 17 a proton event occurred, which should have been deadly to the astronautes within10 hours (i.e. above 4000 mSv).
Mars
Radiation risks and aviationRadiation risks and aviation
The radiation exposure is doubled every 2.2 km.
Solar flares can increase the radiation by 20-30 times.
Pilots get cancer more often than average.
New EU law:Pregnant (aircrew) should not be exposed to morethan 1 (1-6) millisievert/year
The intensive solar flare of April 2, 2001, which causedmajor communication problemsalso made ContinentalAirlines to changetheir route betweenHong Kong and New York.
Power systems are effected at times of geomagnetic storms
Power systems are effected at times of geomagnetic storms
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This severe electrojet caused the failure of Quebec’s power system March 13-14, 1989.
One of the generators of OKG’s (Sydkraft’s) nuclear plants was heated due to the geomagnetically induced current in March 13-14 1989.
A transformer damagedin Main USA.
Workshops arranged by usWorkshops arranged by us
Workshops on ”Artificial Intelligence Applications in Solar-Terrestrial Physics” were held in Lund 1993 and 1997.
Artificial neural networksArtificial neural networks
The basic element of every ANN is an artificial neuron or simply a neuron (which is an abstract model of a biological neuron (nerve cell)).
Download Lund Dst model in Java and Matlab
Download Lund Dst model in Java and Matlab
The ARMA filter is obtained by adding auto-regressive terms to a MA filter.The partial recurrent network (Elman) becomes identical to a linear ARMA filter if it is assigned linear
activations functions.
Our scientific approachOur scientific approach
Real-time test of Dst forecastsReal-time test of Dst forecasts
Test Dst forecastsTest Dst forecasts
ApplicationsApplications
Input parameters Output KBNM method
Reference
Daily sunspot number Daily sunspot number SOM and MLP
Liszka 93;97
Monthly sunspot number Date of solar cycle max and amplitude
MLP and Elman
Macpherson et al., 95, Conway et al, 98
Monthly sunspot number and aa
Date of solar cycle max and amplitude
Elman Ashmall and Moore, 98
Yearly sunspot number Date of solar cycle max and amplitude
MLP Calvo et al., 95
McIntosh sunspot class & MW magn complex.
X class solar flare MLP expert system
Bradshaw et al., 89
Flare location, duration
X-ray and radio flux
Proton events MLP Xue et al., 97
X-ray flux Proton events Neuro- fuzzy system
Gabriel et al., 00
Photospheric magnetic field expansion factor
Solar wind velocity 1-3 days ahead
RBF & PF MHD
Wintoft and Lundstedt 97;99
ApplicationsApplications
Input parameters Output KBNM method
Reference
Solar wind n, V, Bz Relativistic electrons in Earth magnetosphere hour ahead
MLP Wintoft and Lundstedt, 00
Solar wind n,V, Bz, Dst
Relativistic electrons one hour ahead
MLP, MHD, MSFM
Freeman et al., 93
Kp Relativistic electrons day ahead
MLP Stringer and McPherron, 93
Solar wind V from photospheric B
Daily geomagnetic Ap index
MLP Detman et al., 00
Ap index Ap index MLP Thompson, 93
Solar wind n, V, Bz Kp index 3 hours ahead MLP Boberg et al., 00
Solar wind n, V, B,Bz
Dst 1-8 hours ahead MLP, Elman Lundstedt, 91; Wu and Lundstedt, 97
Solar wind n, V, B,Bz
AE 1 hour ahead Elman, MLP Gleisner and Lundstedt,00 ,Gavrishchaka et al.,00, 01
ApplicationsApplications
Input parametrs Output KBNM method References
Solar wind V2Bs, (nV2)1/2, LT, local geomag xe, Yw
Local geomagnetic field X,Y
MLP and RBF Gleisner and Lundstedt 00
Solar wind n,V, Bz None, weak or strong aurora
MLP Lundstedt et al., 00
foF2 foF2 1 hour ahead MLP Wintoft and Lundstedt, 99
AE, local time, seasonal information
foF2 1-24 hours ahead
MLP Wintoft and Cander, 00
foF2, Ap, F10.7 cm 24 hours ahead MLP Wintoft and Cander, 99
Kp Satellite anomalies MLP Wintoft and Lundstedt 00
Solar wind n, V, Bz dBx/dt, GIC Elman, MLP Kronfeldt et al., 01 and Weigel et al.,02
Real-time forecasts and warnings
based on KBN Real-time forecasts and warnings
based on KBN
Solar wind observations with ACE make accurate forecasts 1-3 hours ahead possible.
Solar observations with SOHO make warnings 1-3days ahead possible.
Solar input data
ESA/Lund Space Weather Forecast Service Package
ESA/Lund Space Weather Forecast Service Package
Near and farside solar activity from MDI/SOHO observations
Near and farside solar activity from MDI/SOHO observations
Latest information on arrival of halo CME at L1
Latest information on arrival of halo CME at L1
Latest info on forecasts of satellite anomalies (SAAPS)
Latest info on forecasts of satellite anomalies (SAAPS)
Latest information on forecasts of Kp, Dst, AE and GIC
Latest information on forecasts of Kp, Dst, AE and GIC
Our GIC Pilot ProjectAn application at implementation stage
Our GIC Pilot ProjectAn application at implementation stage
Today general forecast service is given by RWCs within ISES
Today general forecast service is given by RWCs within ISES
ISES Director: D. BotelerDeputy Director: H. LundstedtSecr. for World days: H. CoffeySecr. Space Weather: J. KunchesWWW for Satellites: J. King
RWC - SwedenISES
RWC - SwedenISES
The October 14 -November 6 events:It all started with no sunspots
The October 14 -November 6 events:It all started with no sunspots
• No sunspots (R=24)• Aurora observed in Southern Sweden (Gothenburg, Lund)• Media got interested• SOHO/MDI far side images had told me Large ARs were to come
Many radio and newspaper interviews
followed and AR 484 entered
Then came the AR 486, October 28 event
Then came the AR 486, October 28 event
• Even more interviews• Warnings and reports were sent to power industry• Discussions with power operators
Power outage in MalmöPower outage in Malmö
Rz spectraldensity LF20-128 days.Stora ARvanligare.
Power Outage in Southern Sweden, October 30, 2003
The power failure got enormous media attention in Sweden
The power failure got enormous media attention in Sweden
Every TV, radio stationand newspaperhad something
And then ….X28 solar flare on November 4!!
And then ….X28 solar flare on November 4!!
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Active Regions 484/486/488 one rotation later
Active Regions 484/486/488 one rotation later
Today’s Space WeatherToday’s Space Weather
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Where to learn more?www.lund.irf.se
Where to learn more?www.lund.irf.se
END
Part 2
Acknowledgements.I am grateful to the following providers of images and animations;ESA/NASA SOHO teams.
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