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OVERVIEW OF THE OUTLET INVESTMENT MARKETJuly 2017
Prepared for Investors of
Everyone can drive a car...
Hammerson | Cushman & Wakefield 2
W H Y O U T L E T S ?Yields Converging
Source: Cushman and Wakefield Outlet Valuation Team
4.00%
4.50%
5.00%
5.50%
6.00%
6.50%
7.00%
7.50%
Jun-
06Se
p-06
Dec-
06M
ar-0
7Ju
n-07
Sep-
07De
c-07
Mar
-08
Jun-
08Se
p-08
Dec-
08M
ar-0
9Ju
n-09
Sep-
09De
c-09
Mar
-10
Jun-
10Se
p-10
Dec-
10M
ar-1
1Ju
n-11
Sep-
11De
c-11
Mar
-12
Jun-
12Se
p-12
Dec-
12M
ar-1
3Ju
n-13
Sep-
13De
c-13
Mar
-14
Jun-
14Se
p-14
Dec-
14M
ar-1
5Ju
n-15
Sep-
15De
c-15
Mar
-16
Jun-
16Se
p-16
Dec-
16M
ar-1
7
Prime Shopping Centre Yields vs. Prime Outlet Yields
Outlets Top European Cities Shoppping Centres
Hammerson | Cushman & Wakefield 3
T H E O U T L E T M A R K E TSmall but still growing – Majority of Outlet floor space comprises secondary/tertiary centres
Total Shopping Centre floor space in Europe is
159.4 million sqm
Total Outlet floor space in Europe is
3 million sqm
Hammerson | Cushman & Wakefield 4
L E A S E S T R U C T U R EHow are Outlets different?
BASE RENTAnnual reviews based on Inflation + Previous Rent
TURNOVER RENT
POTENTIAL GROWTHThe objective is to keep topping up!
Hammerson | Cushman & Wakefield 5
S M A L L M A R K E T B U T B I G R E T U R N SDecember 2015 – December 2016
9.8%Rental Growth
Outlet MallsShopping Centres
1.8%Sales Growth (All Retail)
11.1%Sales Growth
5.82%Capital Value Growth
11%Capital Value Growth
6.5%Sales Density Growth
1.1%Rental Growth
Source: Cushman and Wakefield Outlet Valuation Team
Hammerson | Cushman & Wakefield 6
H U G E D E M A N D V E RY L I T T L E S U P P LYCapital Markets Statistics
Cushman & Wakefield advised on
overof all outlet transactions in Europe in 2016 and value around 50 schemes a year.
50%€ M
€200 M
€400 M
€600 M
€800 M
€1,000 M
€1,200 M
€1,400 M
€1,600 M
€1,800 M
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Year
European Outlet Transactions 2008 - 2017
Total Transaction Volume C & W Transaction Volume
Hammerson | Cushman & Wakefield 7
P R O P E R T Y O R B U S I N E S S ?Density Spectrum – Assessing the Buyer Pool at Various Levels of Performance
€5,000 psm
€10,000 psm
€15,000 psm
€20,000 psm
SUPER PRIME• Sovereign wealth• Large REITS
PRIME• Specialised Outlet Funds• Institutional Investors
GOOD SECONDARY• Retail Funds• Institutional Investors• Specialised Outlet Funds• Core-plus Funds• Property Companies
SECONDARY/TERTIARY• Specialised Outlet Funds• Opportunistic Funds• Private Investors • Property Companies
Property Backed Business
Property Assets
Source: Cushman and Wakefield Outlet Valuation Team
Majority of European Outlets fit into these categories
Hammerson | Cushman & Wakefield 8
M A I N E U R O P E A N O U T L E T O P E R ATO R SConsolidation
10
9
6
5
Num
ber o
f Eur
opea
n C
entr
es (e
xcl.
Dev
elop
men
t)
23
4
13
5
2
7
Still more than 100 outlets not managed by the “Core Group”
5
Hammerson | Cushman & Wakefield 9
W H Y I S S P E C I A L I S T K N O W L E D G E N E E D E D ?Marketing Budgets – European Benchmark – A driven asset
€ 0
€ 1,000,000
€ 2,000,000
€ 3,000,000
€ 4,000,000
€ 5,000,000
€ 6,000,000
Super Prime Prime GoodSecondary
Secondary Tertiary
€pe
r ann
um
Average Marketing Budgets by Tier
€ 0
€ 500,000
€ 1,000,000
€ 1,500,000
€ 2,000,000
€ 2,500,000
€ 3,000,000
€ 3,500,000
€ 4,000,000
Tourism driven Local catchment driven
€pe
r ann
um
Marketing Budgets
Hammerson | Cushman & Wakefield 10
C O R E I N V E S TO R SCore Group of Experience
Hammerson | Cushman & Wakefield 11
E X PA N S I O N S B U T V E RY D I F F I C U LT TO G E T P L A N N I N G C O N S E N TDevelopments – In the last 4 months extensions have added more than a whole new scheme across Europe
Designer Outlet Provence
Designer Outlet Roermond – Phase 4
Batavia Stad Fashion Outlet – Phase 4 & 5
Sambil Outlet Madrid
Torino Fashion Mall
Viladecans The Style Outlets
Designer Outlet ParndorfBicester Village – Phase 4
Honfleur Normandy Outlet
Opening Soon
Recently Opened
Noventa Di Piave Designer Outlet
Hammerson | Cushman & Wakefield 12
T H E “ P L AT F O R M ” I S K E YRecent Transactions – Large Portfolios openly transacted would command a premium
Fashion House Gdansk
Fashion HouseWarsaw
Fashion House Sosnowiec
Junction One, Antrim
The Outlet, Banbridge
McArthurGlen Ochtrup
Designer Outlet Wolfsburg
McArthurGlen Troyes
McArthurGlen Roubaix
Festival Park, Mallorca
Clarks Village, Street
Junction 32, Castleford
Braintree Freeport
Mill Green Designer Outlet, Cannock
Zweibrücken The Style Outlets
Sevilla The Style Outlet
Factory Wroclaw
Rosada Fashion Outlet
Las Rozas The Style OutletsS.S. de los Reyes The Style Outlets
Getafe The Style Outlets
Vicolungo The Style Outlets
Castel Guelfo The Style Outlets
Factory Poznan
Vila do Conde Porto Fashion Outlet
IRUS Fund Split
General
Hermes
Peakside
Ares
Tristan
Hammerson | Cushman & Wakefield 13
V E RY L I M I T E D S U P P LYOutlets currently on the Market
Festival Park, Ebbw Vale, Wales
Designer Outlet Luxembourg
Outlet Centre Lublin
Outlet Centre Bialystok
Livingston Designer Outlet, Scotland
Norwegian Outlet
Hammerson | Cushman & Wakefield 14
A P P E N D I XRecent Transactions
Q2 2017 Poland – Fashion House;
Gdansk, Warsaw, and Sosnowiec
PRICE: Confidential
VENDOR: Peakside
PURCHASER: Deutsche AM
Q2 2017UK – Junction 32,
Braintree Freeport, and Clarks Village
PRICE: £332.5m*
VENDOR: Hermes
PURCHASER: Land Securities
Q4 2016Zweibrucken, Villa Do
Conde, Sevilla and Wroclaw
PRICE: €587m*
VENDOR: IRUS Fund
PURCHASER: VIA Outlets
Q4 2016Getafe, Las Rozas,
Vicolungo, Castel GuelfoSSR and Poznan
PRICE: €702m*
VENDOR: IRUS Fund
PURCHASER: Neptune Fund
* Reported Prices
Not all cars are the same…..
Questions?
CONTACT DETAILS
Richard ChingPartner
Head of Outlet Mall Valuations EMEA
Direct: +44 (0) 20 7152 5870 Mobile: +44 (0) 7793 808870
richard.ching@cushwake.com
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