patrick buckley dept. envr studies: geography
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Arab Political Demography
Development, Resources, and Demography in the Middle East: Is
Oil Destroying the Arab world?
Patrick Buckley
Dept. Envr Studies: Geography
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78
Introduction
Start combining demographics with migration, religion, linguistics, culture, economics, and potential global security issues
Some Questions
Is there an Arab World? Is this term based on a Formal, Functional, or Vernacular Region?
Does it relate to the Muslim World?
As a Linguistic Region
Arab World Linguistically Defined
Note how this is the heart of Islam, but not all or even most of Islam.
Critical thinking: Would this be a formal, functional, or vernacular region?
Result
Yes, seems fairly unified – it shares a common characteristic (formal region)
As a Historical Region
Arab World Historically Defined
The Arab empire that extended into Europe until 1491
Critical thinking: Would this be a formal, functional, or vernacular region?
Result
Perhaps, over about 1,400 years a number of empires have unified this region, but not all were controlled by Arabs.
Each of these empires would also be a formal region
As a Religous Region
With few exceptions Islam is a result of Arab Expansion/Trade
Result
Depends, Islam certainly dominates but it has branches and there are also some minority religions including branches of Christianity.
Still a formal region, but note the fuzzy borders as Islam as a % varies.
Religious % in Arab League
As a Political Region
Today The Arab World Politically Defined – the Arab League
Algeria
Bahrain
Comoros
Djibouti
Egypt
Iraq
Jordan
Kuwait
Lebanon
Libya
MauritaniaMorocco
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Somalia
Sudan
Syria
Tunisia
U.A.E
Yemen
The Arab League - The League of Arab States Arab League, informal name of the League of Arab States, a voluntary association of independent countries whose peoples are mainly Arabic speaking. Its stated purposes are to strengthen ties among the member states, coordinate their policies, and promote their common interests.
FACTS OVERVIEW Founded: 1945 Headquarters: Cairo, Egypt Key players: Egypt, Saudi Arabia
How does this compare to the US?
Note this crude map contains only part of the Arab League, plus two non-Arab League state.
But it should get you thinking!!!
Turkey not Arab
Iran not Arab
USAPopulation: 314 million (US Census Bureau estimate, 2012) Capital: Washington D.C. Area: 3.8 million sq miles Major language: English Major religion: Christianity Life expectancy: 75 years (men), 80 years (women) (UN)
Arab LeagueFounded: 1945 Population: 340 million (approx. 2007) Headquarters: Cairo, Egypt Area: 5.25 million square miles Key players: Egypt, Saudi Arabia Members: 22 members including Palestine Major language: ArabicLife Expectancy: Varies generally approaches 70 years for men
More Direct Comparison
Conclusion of Comparison
Today the Arab League population is bigger than the US
25 years from now its could be 50% greater than the US
Question How unified is this region? How well does it exist as a Formal rather than merely Vernacular Region.
Result
On paper there is a single group, but it is of limited use, much like the Organization of American States for North and South America
As a Unified Region
Variations on the Western Fringe:
Note that Turks, Kurds, and Persians are not Arabs
How unified is this region?
Note Shi’a Locations and Proportions
Winckler (2005) notes that most if not all Arab nations have missing religious and ethnic data to hide/ignore problematic data inside their countries
Click here for examples:http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/globalconnections/mideast/maps/final_maps_soc.swf
Inside there are variations.
Examples of Hidden InformationCountry What it has to hide
Lebanon Religious differences not measured since 1932
Syria Religious differences not measured since 1960
Jordon Ethnic differences not measured since 1948
S. ArabiaTotal population counts questionable, no
religious data
Egypt Undercounts Coptic Christians
BahrainSunni Royal Family undercounts Shi'a
majority
QatarWith an estimate of 73% Foreigners, such data
not measured
Unemployment
No Arab state seems to accurately report unemploymentFor example S. Arabia has claimed about 10% when reality could be as high as 20 to 30%.(recent Wall Street Journal put it even higher)
See http://www.indexmundi.com/saudi_arabia/unemployment_rate.html
How does this relate to Oil/Gas?
Again do we have an Arab World or a couple of “worlds”? Oil and Non-oil?
In general many Arab countries with the largest populations have the least oil.
As an Economic Region
http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/colombia/images/map04.gif
Oil Reserves (Gb)
Country Gb
OPEC Nations
Saudi Arabia 261.8
Iraq 112.5
United Arab Emirates 97.8
Kuwait 96.5
Iran 89.7
Venezuela 77.8
Libya 29.5
Nigeria 24
Qatar 15.2
Algeria 9.2
Indonesia 5
Non-OPEC Nations
Canada 180
Russia 60
United States 22.4
Mexico 12.6
Norway 10.2
Oman 5.5
United Kingdom 4.7
Egypt 3.7
Gb = Billion barrels. "Oil and Gas Journal" 2003 Figures used by the Energy Information Administration.
Two oil centers in Arab Region
Saudi Arabia
Oman
United Arab Emirates
Bahrain
Kuwait
Qatar
The Gulf Cooperation Council, created in response to the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq war, established the Gulf Standards Organization in November 1982 and the Gulf Investment Corporation in 1984.
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): the oil & gas rich
Saudi Arabia
KuwaitBahrain
Qatar
Oman
United Arab Emirates
CountryBahrainKuwaitOmanQatarSaudi ArabiaUnited Arab Emirates
500 0 500 1000 Miles
N
EW
S
Gulf Cooperation Council MembersOil Reserves (Gb)
Country Gb GCC
OPEC Nations
Saudi Arabia 261.8 Y
United Arab Emirates 97.8 Y
Kuwait 96.5 Y
Libya 29.5
Qatar 15.2 Y
Algeria 9.2
Non-OPEC Nations
Oman 5.5 Y
Egypt 3.7
If Iraq were to join the GCC then the vast majority of world oil reserves would be controlled by this group.
A result
Wealth and jobs have become highly concentrated in the region around the Gulf resulting in large scale migration into the Gulf area.
GCC states have favored pro-natalist (pro-birth) policies even as Non-Oil states have started moving towards anti-natalist policies, why?
% Non-NativeUnder 20%20 - 3535 - 5050 - 6565 - 80
500 0 500 1000 Miles
N
EW
S
GCC: Percent Non-NativePopulation by Year by Country
19901975 2000
Saudi Arabia
Kuwait
Oman
BahrainQatar
United Arab Emirates
Population in 2000Nationals ............ 20 millionNon-nationals …. 10 million
Note how many 30-35 year old Saudi’s there are and how many non-nationals
As a Demographic Region
4 patterns emerge: (1) low growth regions, (2)slowing regions, (3) oil rich regions, and (4) “least developed” regions (not on chart).
1
2
3
Result
Some argue that the Arab world is splitting into these 4 different parts with following results
RNI1960 1980 2000
Lebanon 2.9 2.2 1.4
Egypt 2.6 2.8 1.9
Saudi Arabia 2.6 3.2 2.5
Somolia 2.8
Four Demographic Division of Arab World
Slow Growth
Slowing Areas
Oil Rich/Pro-Natal GCC
Not Developing
Most recent 2011
2011 EstimatesCountry TFR NRI
Lebanon 1.78 1.04%
Egypt 2.69 1.70%
Saudi Arabia 2.74 1.90%
Yemen 5.09 2.30%
Somalia 6.32 2.90%
Additional Results
1. Slow growth areas will join developed nations
2. Slowing areas will face possible instability and hope to supply Europe and the GCC with labor
Possible Results
3. The GCC hopes to “grow” enough labor to oust outsiders, but as population momentum grows, energy resources will decline – too many for too little?
4. The ‘backward’ not developing areas will continue to fuel regional and world instability
Somalia???
Final ConclusionsThere are a number of factors suggesting a unified Arab World, but…
Differences in resources and resulting economies has resulted in different demographic patters and policy – and thus possible futures
Oil wealth seems to be causing more differentiation rather than unity between Arab states
Study Questions
1. Is there an Arab World? How many different ways did we look at this and what is the evidence for or against?
2. In your opinion is the pro-natal policies of the Gulf states a good thing or a bad thing?
3. If the Arab World was unified, could it rival the US? Explain.
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