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Planning in a World of ChangeNCTR Webinar, August 25, 2011
Steven E. Polzin, Ph.D.Center for Urban Transportation ResearchUniversity of South Florida
Technology• Communication substitution• Cost of travel• Energy/environmental impact
Travel Demand
Transportation Supply• Mode options• Performance (capacity/speed, cost, safety, etc)
Transportation Revenues
Economy• Income
Population• Number• Characteristics• Locations
Societal Goals and Objectives
Outline
Travel Behavior
Transportation Infrastructure & Service Costs
1969 Population (millions) 203Person miles traveled (trillion) 1.40Vehicles/100 people 52Gas /gallon $ 0. 35New house $ 15,550Income per year $ 8,550New car $ 3,270
Man Walks on Moon
Wal*Mart Incorporated
First Computer to Computer Message
The World is Changing
1977
Apple Computer Incorporated
Alaska Pipeline Opens
Fiber optics deployed for telephone communications
Population (millions) 216Person miles traveled (trillion ) 1.62
Vehicles/100 people 68Gas /gallon $ 0. 65New house $ 49,300Income per year $15,000BMW 320i $ 7,990
1983
Modern Minivan IntroducedFirst mobile phones introduced to public by Motorola
Microsoft Word and
Lotus 1-2-3 first released.
Population (millions) 234Person miles traveled (trillions) 1.59Vehicles/100 people 70Gas /gallon $ 0. 79New house $ 82,600Income per year $ 21,070Dodge RAM 50 Truck $ 5,665
1990
Exxon Valdez Spill
Honda Accord Top Seller
Population (millions) 249Person miles traveled (trillions) 2.03Vehicles/100 people 76Gas /gallon $ 1.34New house $ 123,000Income per year $ 28,960Isuzu Rodeo $ 12,4900
1995 - FIFTH NHTS
DVD, Optical Disc Storage Media Announced.
Population (millions) 262Person miles traveled (trillions) 3.11Vehicles/100 people 77Gas /gallon $ 1.09New house $ 113,150Income per year $ 35,900New car $ 15,500
2001
September 11
Satellite Radio Begins
Segway Introduced to Revolutionize
Transportation?Population (millions) 281Person miles traveled (trillions) 3.52Vehicles/100 people 82Gas /gallon $ 1.46New house $ 136,150Income per year $ 42,350New car $ 27,958
2009
Automakers Beg for Washington Aid
The top three Internet searches in 2008:
1. Britney Spears2. World Wrestling
Entertainment3. Obama
Richest Nations Agree to Halve Greenhouse Gas
Facebook Passes 100 Million Users
Population (millions) 305Person miles traveled (trillions) 3.30Vehicles/100 people 80Gas /gallon $ 3.39New house $ 238,880Income per year $ 40,523New car $ 28,715
Apple iphone 7G iOS 8
Personal Teleportation App
Press to Transport
President Signs Transportation Reauthorization Bill LATE-TEA
Population (millions) ?Person VMT (trillion ) ?Vehicles/100 people ?Gas /Gallon ?New house ? Income per year ? New Car ?
THE FUTURE
Fundamental Travel TrendsVMT, Registered Vehicles, Gas Cost, Average Income
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
800%
900%
1000%
1969 1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 2008
Perc
ent G
row
th s
ince
196
9
Average Income
Registered Vehicles
Gas Cost
PMT
Travel Trends
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 2008
Ann
ual H
ours
per
Per
son
Travel Time per Capita
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
1969 1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 2008
VMT in Millions
-
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
1969 1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 2008
PMT/VMT
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
1969 1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 2008
Ann
ual V
MT
VMT per Person
Demographic Trends
23
38
24
10
5
15
26
24
16
20
0 10 20 30 40
Only Child
Single Sibling
Two Siblings
Three Siblings
Basketball Team
Households with Siblings
1960 2000census
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
1983 1990 1995 2001 2008
Perc
ent o
f all
Hou
seho
lds
Household Size
5+ Persons
4 Persons
3 Persons
2 Persons
1 Person
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 2008
Perc
ent o
f all
Peop
le
Population by Age
Age 5-15
Age 16-25
Age 26-34
Age 35-64
Age 65 and over
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1983 1990 1995 2001 2008
Perc
ent o
f Pop
ulat
ion
Population - Urban and Rural
Urban
Rural
Demographic Trends
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1983 1990 1995 2001 2008
Population by MSA Size
Less than 250,000250,000 to 499,999500,000 to 999,9991 mil to 2 mil
3 mil or more
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 2008
Population by Race
Other
African American
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
1983 1995 2001 2008
Housing TypeMulti-Family UnitsSingle Family Units
Note: 1990 NPTS did not
collect dwelling unit information
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Num
ber o
f Hou
seho
lds
(tho
usan
ds)
Three or More Vehicles
Two Vehicles
One Vehicle
No Vehicle
Comparison of Various Florida Population Projections
2010 Census18,801,310
15,000
17,500
20,000
22,500
25,000
27,500
30,000
32,500
2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Popu
lati
on in
Tho
usan
d's
Forecast Year
Census
1990
1995
2000
2005
2006
2011
2006 forecast was 1.12 million to high for 2010
1995 forecast was 2.17 million too low for 2010
forecasts have varied by 4.8m for 2025
Incremental Annual Change in VMT
-120,000
-80,000
-40,000
0
40,000
80,000
120,000
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010M
iles
(000
,000
)
YTD 2011 thru May down 1%.
Trip Rate and Length
1067
1054
1371
1568
1449
1385
9.47 8.68 9.29 9.00
10.78 9.52
0
5
10
15
20
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1977 1983 1990 Adj. 1995 2001 2008
Trip
Len
gth
Ann
ual T
rips
per
Per
son
5+
NPTS and NHTS Work Trip Walking Mode Shares
19695.00%
19774.60% 1983
4.10% 19903.70%
19952.60%
20012.81%
20082.82%
19834.50% 1990
4.00%
19952.30%
20012.92% 2008
3.03%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Perc
ent W
alki
ng to
Wor
k
Work Trip "Usual Mode"
Work Trip Actual Mode
Walk is 10.95% of all trips in 2008
Census/ACS Work Trip Percent Walking Mode Share
10.40%
7.40%
5.60%
3.90%
2.90%
2.86%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Perc
ent W
alki
ng to
Wor
k
2009 ACS
Vehicle Occupancies - NHTS
1.401.30 1.30
1.20 1.20 1.201.13
1.90 1.90
1.801.70
1.59 1.64
1.67
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
2.20
1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009
Occ
upan
cy
Work Trip
All Trips
Carpooling Mode Share (ACS)
20.4% 19.7%
13.4% 12.2%
10.7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2008
Perc
ent C
arpo
olin
g to
Wor
k
8.90%
6.40%
5.30%
4.70%4.99%4.60%
3.56%3.67%
3.68%
3.40%
2.70% 2.70% 2.20%1.81% 1.56%
1.92%
1.76%
5.11%5.05%
5.13%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Perc
ent o
n Tr
ansi
t
Census/ACS Journey to Work, Usual Mode
NPTS/NHTS Work Trips, Survey Day
NPTS/NHTS All Trips
NHTS 2001 Adjusted
NHTS Work Trip, Work Trip Usual Mode
Transit Mode Share Trends
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 Cars, 1 or More Workers
0 cars, 0 Workers
2+ More Workers than
Autos
1 More Worker than
Autos
Cars is Greater Than
Workers
Cars = Workers
1 Car, 1 Worker
Mod
e Sh
are
Perc
ent
2001
2008
Transit Mode Share by Vehicle Availability
Shortage of Vehicles
Transit Mode Share by Income
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Under $15,000 $15,000-$50,000 $50,000+
Mod
e Sh
are
2008
2001
1995
Transit Market Share by Car Availability
32.5%
15.6%
3.3%13.7%
14.4%
7.2%
13.4%
2008
0 Cars, 1 or More
Workers
0 Cars, 0 Workers
2+ More Workers than Autos
1 More Worker than Autos
Cars is Greater than Workers
Cars = Workers
1 Car, 1 Worker
34.9%
9.7%
8.2%15.4%
11.2%
9.4%
11.2%
2001
0 Cars, 1 or More
Workers
0 Cars, 0 Workers
2+ More Workers than Autos
1 More Worker than Autos
Cars is Greater than Workers
Cars = Workers
1 Car, 1 Worker
Vehicle Availability
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009
Vehi
cles
per
Vehicles per worker
Vehicles per person 16 and older
Vehicles per person
Vehicles per driver
Declining Zero-Vehicle Households?
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Per
cent
NPTS/NHTS Census ACS
Source: CUTR analysis of NHTS ,NPTS,U.S. Census Bureau and 2002-09 ACS
Household Vehicle Ownership DistributionHousehold Percents
National Household Vehicle Ownership Distribution, 2009
HH Vehicles Number of Adults in HH1 2 3 4 5+ All
0 5.79% 2.28% 0.38% 0.19% 0.05% 8.69%
1 20.40% 10.18% 1.31% 0.33% 0.06% 32.28%
2 3.66% 29.04% 2.92% 0.62% 0.08% 36.32%
3 0.74% 9.06% 3.72% 0.78% 0.09% 14.39%
4 0.21% 2.58% 1.54% 0.82% 0.13% 5.30%
5+ 0.14% 1.40% 0.82% 0.49% 0.17% 3.02%
All 30.96% 54.54% 10.69% 3.23% 0.58% 100.00%
20.66% More cars than adults
54.16% Cars equals adults
16.50% Fewer cars than adults
8.69% Zero cars
Time Spent in Travel per Day
49.2 62.8
71.2
84.5
76.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1983 1990 adj. 1995 2001 2008
Min
utes
Mean Household Income Received by Each Quintile1967 to 2008
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
$200,000
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
Lowest fifth Second fifth
Third fifth Fourth fifth
Highest fifth
Census, 2008 dollars
PMT by Income Quintile
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
1983 1995 2009
Ann
ual P
er P
erso
n PM
T
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
PMT and VMT per Capita by Age
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
140002001 Per Capita VMT
2008 Per Capita VMT
Fundamental Economic and Demographic Changes Continue
Home Ownership Levels at New Lows …
The New York Times,May 2011
Fundamental Economic and Demographic Changes Continue
UPDATE: Gas Prices, Economy Leave Retailers With Mixed May Sales
WSJ, 2011
Americans got used to staycations during the recession, but as the economy begins to recover many are now ready to graduate to the short-stay getaway…
AP, May 2011
Role of Communications Technology• 30% of couples meet online, eHarmony is responsible for 5% of
all marriages
• Holiday shoppers spent 12% more on line in 2010 than 2009
• 85% of Americans own cell phones, 25% of households have gone cell phone only
• 51% of Americans 12 years of age or older have a Facebook account
• There was a 21% increase in online course enrollment in colleges across the country in 2010
• Households with teenage children had 5.2 online purchases and 4.2 home deliveries per month according to NHTS
• Blockbuster and Borders fail
• Post Office contemplates 5 day mail delivery
Socio-Demographic Issues Aging population
• Saturation of female labor force participation
Different young adult behaviors
Slowing migration - locked in homes/less mobile
Reduced immigration
Income/wealth impact
• Changing household composition
• Slowing of suburbanization?
System Supply Issues Future system supply and speed
• Energy and other costs
• Environment/climate concerns
• Evolving technology impacting travel
• Etc.
Technology• Communication substitution• Cost of travel• Energy/environmental impact
Travel Demand
Transportation Supply• Mode options• Performance (capacity/speed, cost, safety, etc)
Transportation Revenues
Economy• Income
Population• Number• Characteristics• Locations
Societal Goals and Objectives
Outline
Travel Behavior
Transportation Infrastructure & Service Costs
DisclaimerWe haven’t been able to predict
Who will win the next election, Which movie or TV show will be popular, What will be the hot Christmas gift, or, Which stocks (if any) will do well this year.
The level of understanding and the amount of data regarding
transportation has never been better, yet we shouldn’t apologize
for uncertainty regarding predictions of the future.
But we should plan for uncertainty.
Thus, Future Travel Demand is:
[THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK]
Improve Transportation
Systems and Travel
Support Economic Vitality
Protect and Preserve the Environment and Quality of Life and Promote
Energy Conservation
Conflicting Goals?
Transportation Impacts Everything
The complexity of transportation decision making results from applying holistic thinking to transportation planning.
The contentiousness of transportation decision making derives from these often being partisan issues
Environment, health, safety, mobility, accessibility, equity, climate change, employment, economic competitiveness, image, land use, choice, etc.
40
Top National Transportation Priority
SafetyMultimodalismSustainableIntermodalismCoordinationOne DOTEconomic DevelopmentEfficiencyIntelligent
Transportation LivabilityJobsMobilityAccessibility? ? ?
Key Issues
Unprecedented uncertainty
Behavior, demographics, economic growth, technological change, governance, etc.
A disconnect between industry defined needs and political/public will
An inability to discern between worthy and imprudent projects
Finding a Consensus on
Transportation Funding is
Challenging
According to a new study by the American Road & Transportation Builders Association, new Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards that mandate cars and light trucks
average 54.5 mpg by 2025 will deprive federal highway projects of more than $65 billion in revenues.
AutoBlog, August 1, 2011
Money, Money, Money
90100110120130140150160170180190200210220230240250
Pro
duce
r Pric
e In
dex
Valu
e
PPI for Highway and Street / Non Residential Construction
PPI for Highway and Street Construction
PPI for Non Residential Construction (New Index - Includes Highway & Street Construction and Heavy Construction)
Cost of Transportation
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
Pric
e pe
r Gal
lon
($)
US Average Price of Diesel No. 2
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
Une
mpl
oym
ent R
ate
Siz
e of
Wor
kfor
ce (0
00s)
Florida Heavy Construction Employment and Total Unemployment Rate
Heavy Construction Employment
Florida Total Unemployment Rate
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Perm
its Is
sued
Mon
thly
Val
ue ($
Billi
ons)
Value of Residential Building Permits Issued in Florida
Value of Residential Permits Issued
Florida Residential Permits Issued
Cost Issues
Right of way costs
Costs of planning, design, engineering, project management
Differential impact of costs trends by mode?
Key Issues
• While fundamental laws of physics, human nature, economic principles, etc., have not changed -- a lot has.
• Transportation is more complex and more controversial than previously.
• Uncertainly is unprecedented.
• Planning has to seek out robust solutions.
Some things don’t go as planned.
As You Plan for the Future, Remember:
51
Thank
You
Steven E. Polzin, Ph.D.polzin@cutr.usf.edu813-974-9849 (w)813-416-7517 (c)
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