political demography: demographic change and global futures jack a. goldstone december 13 foreign...

POLITICAL DEMOGRAPHY:Demographic Change and Global Futures

 Jack A. Goldstone

December 13Foreign Policy Research Institute

POPULATION MEGATRENDS

1. Big emerging markets and the world economy

2. Aging  and shrinking workforces in the developed countries

3. Youth and Islam: The New face of the developing world

4. An Urban, not rural, world

Where will the  People Be?

Global Labor Force Growth

Worker Growth vs. Elderly Growth

Increase in Older Folks in the US

Percentage of Population under 15 years old, 2005

Red: 40+         Pink: 30-39    Light Blue:  20-29    Dark Blue:  <20

The Youth Surge in the Middle East(Ages 15-29)

Youth 0.43 0.37 0.40 0.53Bulge

Muslim Growth in the World

Growth in Pop 15-44 age group

An Urban World

What are the Solutions?

• FLEXIBILITY– Retirement /Work/Education– Immigration and Emigration– Business start-up and innovation to find Market-based solutions

• MORE GLOBALIZATION– Open Trade and Human Exchange, New Urbanism– Have faith in European/Liberal Values– Globalization of Education!

What are We Doing About it?

• Investing in Education?  No.• Investing in Basic Research? No.• Improving Energy Grid/Efficiency? No.• Improving attraction to top migrants? No.• Pulling together, sharing sacrifice?  NO, NO, NO.

• Complaining about taxes, government, regulation?  YES, YES, YES.