population projections shaun mclaughlin, cso presentation to hasig seminar 2 december 2008

Population Projections

Shaun McLaughlin, CSOPresentation to HASIG seminar2 December 2008

Layout of presentation

Introduction to projection methodologyAssumptions

Expert Group Fertility, Mortality, Migration

Projection process illustrationResults – Republic of IrelandLabour Force projections

Introduction

Projections in a 5-yearly cycle to coincide with Census

(every 2 years for NI)State projections – 35 year period

Labour Force projections for stateRegional projections – 20 years

Population Projections

Methodology

Projection method

2006 Population

+ Births - Deaths

+ Net Migration

“Age on Population”

= 2007 Projected Population

Cohort component method

Projection method

Census population used as starting point Single year of age and sex

Assumptions on fertility, mortality and migration

Several different scenarios based on different assumptions

Expert group to agree assumptions

Projection method

State assumptions include Labour Force projections for 15 year span

Followed by regional projections Breakdown of state figures Additional assumptions

Population Projections

Assumptions

Assumptions

Fertility rateMortality rateMigration flows

2006 Population + Births - Deaths + Net Migration “Age on Population” = 2007 Projected Population

This method… …requires this information:

Assumptions

Expert Group on Population projections CSO personnel

CensusVital StatisticsQuarterly National Household Survey

(Migration)

Government Departments Academics

Expert Group

2 or 3 meeting of Group to agree projections

1st meeting Agree intial assumptions CSO produce projections based on these

2nd meeting Review initial results Amend assumptions, meet again if needed

Fertility

Historic picture

Falling trends here and abroad

Fertility postponement

Births, 1960-2006 - RoI

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

Bir

ths

(th

ou

san

ds)

Year

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

28,000

30,000

32,000

34,000

36,000

Num

ber

of B

irth

s R

egis

tere

d

Year

Number of Births Registered (1960 to 2006)

Northern Ireland equivalent

Fertility assumptions

F1: TFR to remain at its 2006 level of 1.9 for the lifetime of the projections

F2: TFR to decrease to 1.65 by 2016 and to remain constant thereafter

Mortality assumptions

Mortality rates are assumed to decrease which will result in gains in life expectancy at birth from: 76.7 years in 2005 to 86.5 years in 2041 for

males 81.5 years in 2005 to 88.2 years in 2041 for

females

Migration assumptions

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Intercensal period

Th

ou

san

ds

Natural increase

Population change

Net migration

Population change components

Migration assumptions

Migration is main driver of population change in Republic of Ireland

Most unpredictable factor Depends on many factors Economic / employment situation EU enlargement Too many influences to model

Migration for recent years

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

Year

Th

ou

san

ds Emigrants

Immigrants

Net migration

Migration assumptions

Highly unpredictable Not trying to forecast economy etc.

2 Main assumptions: M1: Continued high in-migration M2: More moderate migration

3rd Zero-migration assumption Useful to gauge effect of migration

Migration assumptions

Assumptions summary

2 Fertility assumptions F1: Continuing high fertility F2: Decreasing fertility

3 Migration Assumptions M1: Continuing high migration M2: More moderate migration M0: Zero migration

1 Mortality Assumption

Population Projections

Process

Projection illustration

Males

40 30 20 10 0

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95100105

Age

Thousands

Females

0 10 20 30 40

0 5

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95

100105

Age

Thousands

Projection illustration

Males Females

Start with initial population (2006).Single year of age pyramid

Projection illustration

Males Females

Mortality assumptions => number of deaths at each age

Projection illustration

Males Females

Subtract deaths

Projection illustration

Males Females

Migration assumptions => number of emigrants

Projection illustration

Males Females

Projection illustration

Males Females

Migration assumptions => number of immigrants

Projection illustration

Males Females

Projection illustration

Males Females

Population ages by 1 year

Projection illustration

Males Females

Fertility rates + no. of women of child-bearing age

Projection illustration

Males Females

Number of births(i.e. age 0)

Projection illustration

Males Females

Result is projected population after 1 year (2007)

Projection illustration

Males Females

Repeat as required!

Result is projected population after 1 year (2007)

Population Projections

Results

Population, 1841-2006

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

1841 1861 1881 1901 1921 1941 1961 1981 2001

Year

Po

pu

lati

on

(m

illi

on

s)

Projected population 2006-2021

Migration accounts for over 90% of range

High Fertility (F1) Low Fertility (F2)

Year

M1 M2 M0 M1 M2 M0

Thousands

2011 4,738 4,686 4,422 4,729 4,676 4,413 2016 5,233 5,094 4,607 5,188 5,050 4,568 2021 5,688 5,449 4,764 5,590 5,356 4,686

Primary & Secondary populations

“Primary” 5-12 was 450,500 in 2006 Will increase under all assumptions

To 623,100 by 2021 under M1F1 (+172,600)To 480,500 by 2021 under M0F2 (+30,000)

“Secondary” 13-18 was 342,300 in 2006 Will decline initially

To 339,400 by 2011 under M1F1Then increase again to reach 409,700 by 2021

Young population 2006-2021

Population 0-14 Peaked at 1,044,000 in 1981 Fell to a low of 827,500 in 2001

Has increased since - was 865,000 in 2006Is projected to grow under all assumptions

By 2016 will reach 1,074,400 under M1F1 and 1,048,800 under M2F1

Under low fertility assumption By 2021 will be 1,021,200 under M2F2 and 0,866,900 under M0F2

Primary school-going population

300000

350000

400000

450000

500000

550000

600000

650000

700000

M1F1

M1F2

M2F1

M2F2

M0F1

M0F2

Working age population

Working age population (15-64) 2,905,500 in 2006 Up 316,000 (2.3% p.a.) since 2001

In determining projections migration is key factor M1F1 3,745,900 in 2021 Up 840,000 (1.7% p.a.)

M2F1 3,565,800 in 2021 Up 660,300 (1.4% p.a.)

Births 2006-2021

Population aged 0-14 in 2021 determined by annual births between 2006 and 2021

Births Historic high of 74,000 in 1980 Historic low of 48,300 in 1994 More recent high of 64,200 in 2006

Average annual projected births 2016 to 2021 Highest under M1F1 79,000 Compared with M2F2 69,000 And M0F2 51,000

Projected population 2021-2041

Old population (65+ years)

Old population (65+) 2006 462,400 2041 (M0) 1,313,300 2041 (M2) 1,396,600 3 fold increase 2041 (M1) 1,434,400

Oldest old population (80+) 20016 112,000 2041 (M0) 443,700 = 4 fold increase

Actual and projected dependency ratios (M2F2)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006 2016 2026 2036

Year

Per

cen

t

Total

Old

Young

Population pyramid for 2006 and 2041 (M1F1)

Population pyramid for 2006 and 2041 (M0F2)

Population Projections

Labour Force Projections

Labour Force projections

Labour force Persons aged 15+ at work or

unemployed Excludes homemakers / pupils / retired

Labour force participation rate Number of persons in the labour force,

expressed as a percentage of the total

Labour Force Projections

Done as a final step in the projections process

Make assumptions about participation rates

Apply these to the results of population projections

Covers 15 year period

Labour Force Projections

Different participation rates for different sections of population Male / Female Student / Non-student Have children? (For females)

Difficult to project – use marriage rates instead

Labour Force Projections

Labour Force participation rate assumptions

Males LFPR of 25-44 year old males largely unchanged Minor increases in LFPR of males aged 45+

reflecting a greater propensity to remain in the LF

Married females Further LFPR gains for 25-49 year olds Moderate gains in LFPR for females 50+

Other females Moderate increases in LFPR of these females

Projected Labour Force

Year MalesFemales

PersonsMarried Other Total

Thousands

Actual* 1996 925.1 322.1 260.2 582.3 1,507.4 2002 1,076.6 414.5 349.8 764.3 1,840.9 2006 1,223.2 475.0 419.8 894.8 2,118.0

M1 2011 1,392.4 546.3 482.7 1,029.0 2,421.5 2016 1,532.7 620.0 511.8 1,131.8 2,664.5 2021 1,653.1 674.7 537.3 1,212.0 2,865.2

M2 2011 1,371.9 541.5 472.2 1,013.7 2,385.6 2016 1,480.7 605.3 487.3 1,092.6 2,573.3 2021 1,568.8 647.1 501.5 1,148.5 2,717.3

M0 2011 1,269.3 517.2 419.7 936.9 3,143.2 2016 1,302.6 550.8 407.9 958.7 3,220.0 2021 1,335.0 562.3 412.2 974.5 3,284.1

Projected labour force

Working age population x participation rates Between 2002 and 2006 +72,000 p.a. Projected up to 2021 +50,000 p.a. under M1 +40,000 p.a. under M2 +13,000 p.a. under M0

Split increases into demographic / participationDemographic effect drives increases

males 90% under M1, and 66% under M0 married females 77% under M1 single females - demographic negative under M0

Labour force growth rates

Migration and the labour force

Population Projections

Any questions?