possible futures for the internet: sander steffann, ipv6 specialist, co-chair, ripe address policy...
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Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011
Possible futuresPossible futures for the internet
torsdag 26. mai 2011
Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011
Where are we now?
• The internet is using IPv4
• But... no more IPv4 addresses– Global pool (IANA) is empty
– European pool (RIPE NCC) will be empty soon
– Internet providers will run out
– Enterprises can not get any IPv4 addresses
• The internet can not continue to grow
• At least not in the way we are used to...
2
torsdag 26. mai 2011
Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011
The original plan
3
torsdag 26. mai 2011
Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011
Now looking like...
4
!"#$%&'($!)*+,-./+$&0*+$$1$2345$
IPv6 Deployment
2004
IPv6 Transition – Dual Stack
IPv4 Pool Size
Size of the Internet
2006 2008 2010 2012
Date
12 months!
torsdag 26. mai 2011
Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011
Possibility one
• We continue as we do today– IPv4 is used for all communication
– Almost no IPv6 deployment
5
torsdag 26. mai 2011
Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011
Possibility one - what will happen?
• As long as there is demand growth will be forced
• Users now usually get one IPv4 address– Their router is fully connected to the internet
– The PC’s are not, but can work through the router
– The user has control over the router
• But there will not be enough IPv4 addresses to continue to give every user his/her own address...
6
torsdag 26. mai 2011
Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011
Possibility one - what will happen?
• As long as there is demand growth will be forced
• Users will have to share an IPv4 address– Their router is no longer fully connected to the internet
– The ISP can only offer partial service
– The user has no control anymore
7
torsdag 26. mai 2011
Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011
Possibility one - the consequences
• Is this a bad thing? Yes!– Performance will degrade
– More complex » more failures
– Privacy issues
– IPv4 address ≠ one user/customer
– Lawful intercept will be difficult
– Finding abusers will be next to impossible
8
torsdag 26. mai 2011
Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011
Possibility one - the consequences
• What will still work?– Browsing websites, but slower
– Sending and retrieving e-mail
• What won’t work?– Voice over IP / Skype
– Running your own server (web, e-mail, etc)
– Peer-to-peer connections (sharing, gaming, talking, ...)
– Innovation, new applications, ...
9
torsdag 26. mai 2011
Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011
Possibility two
• Websites and other servers continue to use IPv4– Not so many addresses needed for servers
• Users get IPv6 connections– Still need IPv4 to reach websites and other servers...
10
torsdag 26. mai 2011
Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011
Possibility two - what will happen?
• Users still need IPv4 to reach servers– Users will have to share an IPv4 address
• Users will also get an IPv6 connection– IPv6 can be used to communicate with others that also have IPv6
– Plenty of addresses to use without limitation
– This will provide an incentive to offer services over IPv6
11
torsdag 26. mai 2011
Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011
Possibility two - the consequences
• Is this a bad thing? Yes! (but a bit less bad)– IPv4 services will still have the same problems:
– Performance will degrade, more complex » more failures, privacy issues, lawful intercept will be difficult, finding abusers will be next to impossible
– IPv6 provides a way to do more:
– Voice over IP / Skype, running your own server, peer-to-peer connections, innovation, new applications, ...
12
torsdag 26. mai 2011
Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011
Possibility three
• Most websites and other servers become available over IPv6
– Their IPv4 connection also remains
• Users get IPv6 connections– Still need IPv4 to reach the websites and servers that are late with IPv6 deployment...
13
torsdag 26. mai 2011
Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011
Possibility three - what will happen?
• Users still need IPv4 to reach a few servers– Users will have to share an IPv4 address
– The majority of traffic won’t need this though
• Users will also get an IPv6 connection– IPv6 can be used to access most websites / servers
– IPv6 can be used to communicate with others that also have IPv6
– Plenty of addresses to use without limitation
– This will provide an incentive to offer services over IPv6
14
torsdag 26. mai 2011
Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011
Possibility three - the consequences
• This is where we need to go!– Services are available over IPv6
– No need for performance degrading, complex and difficult techniques (for most services)
– IPv6 provides a way to do more:
– Voice over IP / Skype, running your own server, peer-to-peer connections, innovation, new applications, ...
15
torsdag 26. mai 2011
Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011
Conclusion
• We need IPv6– for websites and other services
– for users
• IPv4 will still remain in many places– Not everyone will get an IPv6 connection soon
– Not all services will be available over IPv6 soon
– This is acceptable, as long as the most-used websites and services are available over IPv6
– Survival of the fittest
16
torsdag 26. mai 2011
Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011
Remaining problems excuses
• Equipment and/or software not available– Solutions exist!
– Buy from a vendor that provides what is needed
• Enabling IPv6 will cause problems for users– Might be true, but for a small percentage (≤ 0,03%)
– World IPv6 Day (June 8th 2011)
• IPv6 is not needed yet– If everybody waits we will end up with possibility one!
– IPv6 is needed
17
torsdag 26. mai 2011
Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011
What to do?
• Website owners and hosters:– Make the site available over IPv6
– Not ipv6.somedomain.nobut www.somedomain.no
– Make sure IPv6 support is as good as IPv4 support
18
torsdag 26. mai 2011
Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011
What to do?
• Access providers:– Provide IPv6 access to your users
– Provide or advise about IPv6 capable routers
– Give them a decent amount of addresses
– Enough for multiple networks
– Not just one network (/64)
– And certainly not just one device! (/128)
– Make sure IPv6 support is as good as IPv4 support
19
torsdag 26. mai 2011
Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011
What to do?
• Organisations / enterprises:– Talk to your hosting provider about your websites etc.
– Talk to your access provider about your offices
– Talk to your hardware and software vendors
– Teach your staff to support IPv6 at the same level that they support IPv4
– Work on IPv6 deployment in your organisation
20
torsdag 26. mai 2011
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