powerdown

POWERDOWNBy: Richard Heinberg

Albert LinAnisa Hays

Nate JordanZack Bunkers

Richard Heinberg Professor at New College in California Focuses on Ecological Issues, including

Oil Depletion

A Recent History of Oil Discovery and Production

Of 44 significant oil-producing nations, 24 are clearly past peak production

German Parliament advisors Werner Zittel and Jorg Schindler wrote in 2002 that “The peak of oil discovery was in the 1960’s… This peak in discoveries has to be followed by a peak in production since we can only produce what has been found before. The production peak of individual fields is a historical fact, [and] almost all large oil fields have already passed their production maximum and are in decline.”

Russia, the world’s 2nd largest exporter of oil, won’t be able to grow their industry after 2007.

No Signs of Slowing “To meet projected demand in 2015, the industry

will have to add about 100 million oil-equivalent barrels a day of new production. That’s equal to about 80 percent of today’s production level. In other words, by 2015, we will need to find, develop and produce a volume of new oil and gas that is equal to 8 out of every 10 barrels being produced today. In addition the cost associated with providing this additional oil and gas is expected to be considerably more than what industry is now spending”.

-Jon Thompson, exploration division president of ExxonMobil.

A Recent History of Natural Gas Discovery and Production

Natural Gas represents 24% of total energy used in US

½ of American homes are heated with Natural Gas The price in 2000 was $2 per thousand cubic feet The price in 2004 was $8 per thousand cubic feet North America has passed peak production In 2002, the US imported 15% of it’s natural gas

from Canada. That same year, Mexico stopped exporting its

natural gas to the US and started importing it from the US

What is being done? A plan for a global gas infrastructure has

been proposed by world leaders. It would function in the same way that oil is currently imported and exported.

Unfortunately, a global gas infrastructure would no sooner be completed than the global peak of natural gas production would have passed.

Our Energy Fossil Fuels = Inheritance

Other Energy = Wage Earnings

Alternative Energies? No alternative fuel can sustain our

current growing energy needs All human activities require energy Energy is the capacity to do work Less available energy = less work can be done Efforts must be made to create more efficient

economic processes

Consequences Food Production is Put at Risk

Large farming operations are nearly impossible without oil and natural gas

Current farming techniques and machinery rely almost entirely on fossil fuels

Petroleum based fertilizers, pesticides, and herbicides will no longer be cost effective

Problem The world is facing an impending energy

famine that will lead to a Power Down or a Powerdown Power Down- A forced shutting down of

society as we know it due to an energy famine Powerdown- A deliberate reformation of

society to address and avoid the oncoming energy famine

How did this problem arise?

An energy famine is a result of the fact that there are limited resources in the world.

Due to the unsustainable consumption of these resources, we are now facing an energy famine.

Will our society fail? When societies begin expanding with no

effective limits to growth, they come to face either a maintenance crisis or a depletion crisis. A maintenance crisis occurs when production

falls short of maintenance needs. A depletion crisis occurs when resources

essential for production are depleted.

What societies have failed?

The Roman Empire failed due to both a maintenance crisis as well as a depletion crisis.

The Mayan Empire fell due to a depletion crisis.

What happens when a civilization falls?

A civilization’s increased food production will spark population growth, which calls for greater food production, resulting in a vicious cycle.

Geographically limited societies will collapse relatively quickly from environmental damage while those that aren’t limited can survive for decades or even centuries after the beginning of a crisis.

Reactions for the Global Civilization

Last Man Standing The path of competition for remaining

resources Waiting for a Magic Elixir

The path of wishful thinking, false hopes and denial

Powerdown The path of cooperation, conservation and

sharing Lifeboats

The path of community solidarity and preservation

What are we currently doing? We are currently taking the path of Last

Man Standing, which has been the status quo.

Nations are competing for resources in order to be the most developed nations.

America is the only remaining superpower, and we have taken measures to maintain it.

Last Man Standing Organisms naturally compete for control

of resources Humans have developed lethal weaponry,

leading to an inability to surrender, which forces the elimination of competition.

Last Man Standing Participants

Powerful consumers v. Weak resource holders

Civil War

Consumer v. Consumer

Terrorists

Effects Fight to steal resources

Fight to control resources

Fight for highest bidder

Fight against civilians

Types of Competition

Last Man Standing The idea of a free

market is a failed attempt to eliminate lethal competition. Why would you

fight for resources when you can buy them?

Last Man Standing In the last eight

years, we have seen a failure of the Free-Market idea in our “War on Terrorism.” Iraq didn’t have

WMD’s, it had valuable resources, which we wanted to control.

Last Man Standing What resources did we want from Iraq?

We wanted to control the oil that Iraq has in order to improve our fiscal standing, which would contribute to our world power.

Take Home Lesson Human nature calls for violent control of

resources, which neither civilization nor the world could survive.

How can we change our course? We can voluntarily

dramatically reduce our energy consumption so that we can avoid an actual famine.

We can squeeze our eyes shut, cover our ears, spin around a few times and hope that nothing bad happens.

Powerdown Values Debate: “comparison of values that we have

and values that we need to have”

Moralistic vs. Ethical (Framework)

(Framework)

Powerdown Restructure Way of Thinking:

“in order to save ourselves we do not need to evolve new organs; we just need to change our way of thinking”

Powerdown Sustaining Human Society:

Reduce Economic Activity Change in Political System Reduce the Scale of Effective Political Power Reduce the Population Levels

Lesson

“ A peaceful global powerdown is possible only if America leads the way. If current American Domestic and Foreign policies continue, powerdown efforts on the part of the nations will result in improved survival options for the people of those nations, but the world as a whole by far the most likely outcome will be devastating resource wars continuing until the resources themselves are exhausted, the human species is extinct, or the fabric of modern societies has been shredded to the point that anarchy-in the worst possible sense- prevails nearly everywhere.”

Magic Elixir The proposed solutions to all of our

energy problems All we have to do is just… (insert new sources

here) Only provides partial answers to the energy

famine

Magic Elixir Hydrocarbon Sources

Most commonly suggested solutions

Tar Sands Oil Reserves

Methane Hydrates

Hydrogen

Tar Sands Extraction

Processing

Prohibitive Costs

Methane Hydrates Extraction

Dangers

Hydrogen Politically Popular

Environmental Concerns

Problems of Efficiency

“Perfect Energy” The Promise of New Energy

The Finite World vs. The Growth Machine

Liebig’s Law Lack of one necessity will undermine an

organism’s ability to survive

Take Home Lesson The most commonly proposed solutions

to our energy famine are not viable options.

What if our civilization fails us? We can build lifeboats, in order to save

the necessary aspects of our culture.

Building Lifeboats Initially, we would be concerned about

personal and family survival. A slightly better response would be to

work towards community survival. Both are problematic in that they will facilitate

competition between either individuals or communities.

Saving what is best We should seek to do better than survive,

and should plan for cultural survival. This can be done through cultural

preservation centers that serve as libraries, universities, and research stations. Most important to conserve the moral lesson

behind industrial society’s collapse: we must keep our population below the ecosystem’s long-term carrying capacity by keeping resource consumption within the regenerative capacity of the ecosystem.

Take Home Lesson We should not only plan for community

survival, but cultural survival through the use of cultural preservation centers.

Lessons Last Man Standing

Human nature calls for violent control of resources, which neither civilization nor the world could survive.

Powerdown America must lead the way to a powerdown, even

though it will be costly on a global scale Magic Elixir

The most commonly proposed solutions to our energy famine are not viable options.

Building Lifeboats We should not only plan for community survival, but

cultural survival through the use of cultural preservation centers.

What does Heinberg say we should do?

Heinberg argues that we should pursue a policy of building lifeboats and a voluntary powerdown.

QUESTIONS?