presentation on southeast asia - amcham | philippines · 2018. 2. 19. · asean kunming-singapore...

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Presentation on Southeast Asia

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Who is this?

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Who is this?

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Who is this?

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Who is this?

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Who is this?

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Geopolitical Themes: Asia

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1942

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Apex of

Japan’s

WWII

Expansion

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Collapse of

US focus

and leverage

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Fight for

Hegemony

in Asia

Escalating

Geo-political

Tensions In

East China

Sea

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What’s

happening

in South

China Sea?

Spratly Islands

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North Korea

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Possible

Trade War

between

China and US

Boosts global connectivity

Welcomed by ASEAN

Kunming-Singapore Rai lway

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China’s

Growing

Inf luence

OBOR in SEA

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Overview: Southeast Asia

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Diverse

Young

Emerging Middle Class

Urbanizat ion

Relat ively low GDP per Capita

Regulatory framework

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ASEAN

Overview

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Education

Infrastructure

Energy transition

Universal healthcare

Climate change

No meaningful integration

Death of TPP

Poverty

Under and unemployment

Big Challenges for ASEAN

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ASEAN and AEC

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Comparing ASEAN to the world

ASEAN EU US China Japan India

Number of

member states10 28 - - - -

Populations

(millions)629 510 321 1,371 127 1,311

Annual

population

growth (%)

1.11 0.3 0.8 0.5 -0.1 1.2

GDP (US$

trillion)2.4 16.3 18.0 11.0 4.1 2.1

GDP per capita

(US$

thousands)

3.9 32.4 56.1 8.1 34.5 1.6

GDP growth

(annual %,

2015)

4.7 2.2 2.6 6.9 0.5 7.6

Source: World Bank 2015;

ASEAN 2016

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ASEAN and the EU are two completely different institutions

Mandate

Parliament

Judicial

Political

Economic

Enforcement

Monetary

ASEAN EU

Strictly intergovernmental Supra-national/ intergovernmental

Elected parliamentNo parliament

EU law of higher order than national lawNo ASEAN law

Democracy a pre-requisite for entry

Myriad political systems

One common marketAEC 2015, 2025

Non-enforceable agreements Enforceable agreements

Eurozone/ Single monetary unionNo plan for monetary union

Capacity ≤300 staff Budget: USD 20 million

32,900 staffBudget: USD 344 billion*

*2017 figures

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The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) is highly

ambitious

Key areasPillars

A Single market and

production base

Highly competitive

economic region

Free flow of

goods

Free flow of

services

Free flow of

investment

Priority inte-

gration sectors

Food,

Agriculture

& Forestry

Competition

Policy

Freer flow of

capital

Free flow of

skilled labour

Consumer

protection

Intellectual

Property Rights

Transport

Energy

Mineral

ICT

Taxation

E-

commerce

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Bi latera l FTAs

High FDI

Reg iona l FTA?

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EU

Economic

Diplomacy

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The Philippines

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Duterte the Mayor

Si loed Agencies

Inst itut ional inert ia

Pol it ical Fact ions

Factors for

Diplomacy

Shift ing personnel

Emerging clamour for competit ion

Looming pro-investment reforms

Factors for

Diplomacy

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Myanmar

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Triple transit ion

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Myanmar

R akhine cr i s i s

Crackdown on journa l i sts

Mi l i tary Inf luence in Po l i t i cs

SEZs

Increase FDI

Inf rast ructure

Educat ion, sk i l l s deve lopment

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Opportunities

and

Challenges

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Indonesia

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Rise of rel ig ious extremism post -Ahok

ReformasiPresident

Balancing reform agenda with power consol idat ion

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Political

Developments

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2019 Elect ions

2018 Local Elect ions

Balancing national ism vs. FDI

Changing pol it ical dynamics

Suharto era: top-down

Post-Suharto era: bottom up

35 gigawatt power program

Education and ski l ls development

Corruption

Protect ionism; regulatory uncertainty

Palm oi l

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Opportunities

and

Challenges

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Singapore

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General Elect ions 2019

Reserved Presidency 2017

Leadership succession a focus

ASEAN Chair 2018

Socio-Political

Developments

Slower growth

Future Economy

Regional hub

Smart Nation

GLCs looking out

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Economic

Developments

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Security

▪ Cybersecurity

▪ Transnational Crime

▪ Terrorism

Economic Integration

▪ AEC

Digital Economy

▪ Smart Cities Network

▪ E-Commerce

Singapore’s ASEAN Chairmanship, 2018

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Thailand

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New Constitut ion

Junta for the long haul

End of mourning period

Restricted pol it ical act ivity

Elect ions: late 2018?

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Political

Developments

Slow economic growth

Aggressive FDI court ing

Hi-tech industries

Thai land 4.0

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Opportunities

& Challenges

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Malaysia

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Najib’s posit ion secured

New Opposit ionCoal it ion

General Elect ion 2018

Political

developments

E-commerce Roadmap 2016

Alibaba’s Digital Free Trade zone

High Value Infrastructure

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Economic

Focus

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Vietnam

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Former PM Dzung ousted

Dominant role of Party

More conservative leadership

Corruption crackdown

US & China relat ions

Former Prime Minister

Nguyen Tan Dzung

General Secretary

Nguyen Phu Trong

Overview

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Opportunities

and

Challenges

Strong GDP growth

“Slow reform” to continue

Ambit ious trade commitments

SOE privatizat ion

Fears of competit ion

Education

Ski l led labor

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Cambodia

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Crackdown on opposit ion

2017 commune, 2018 national elect ions

Industrial Development Pol icy

Garment Industry

Rise of SEZs

Overview

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