primedia

ITSICopyright@2010

Technology 2020

Pieter GeldenhuysInstitute for Technology Strategy &

InnovationPotchefstroom Business School, NWU

ITSICopyright@2010

The Web is dead, long live the Internet

ITSICopyright@2010

Agenda

Society

ITSICopyright@2010

What will the future look like?

“ The future has already happened, it is just unequally distributed.”

- William Gibson

ITSICopyright@2010

The Relationship Between Strategy and ScenariosThe hypotheses of current strategic analysis are considered in the context of a range of plausible futures created through a facilitated process comprising both internal and external experts.

What is What Should be

What Could be

Internal Analysis &Hypothesis Generation

Scenario ThinkingBusiness Model

Design

ITSICopyright@2010

In the next decade … 95% of video and DVD stores will close down

You will have your own TV channel Augmented Reality will redefine how you see the world

TV stations will carry personalised advertisements

Your current cellular number will stop being the primary identifier in your life

You will finally be able to see the world from a celebrity's point of view

ITSICopyright@2010

The primary forces

ITSICopyright@2010

The primary forcesMoore’s law

Processing power will double every 18 months

ITSICopyright@2010

The primary forces

Bandwidth

- will double every 9 months

This revolution will mean very low-cost high-bandwidth communication

ITSICopyright@2010

More information can today be sent over a single cable in a second than was sent over the entire Internet in 2004 in a month.

Bell Labs -> new world speed record for fiber-optic transport. This record, 100 petabits per second kilometer, exceeds previous records such as one achieved in May 2009 of 19 petabyes per second per kilometer (Pbps/km) claimed by AT&T, NEC and Corning.

ITSICopyright@2010

How was it done?

155 simultaneous wavelengths of light over a single 7000 km fiber, with optical repeaters every 90 km along the link. Each wavelength carried 100 gigabits per second of traffic to give the fiber a total payload of 15.5 terabits (trillion bits) per second.

ITSICopyright@2010

The primary forces

Storewidth is doubling every 12 months.

ITSICopyright@2010

Storewidth

"The consumer will have a 5 or 6-terabyte drive by 2009, and will be able to store

25-50,000 CDs —which is all the music

on all the labels! That's when we

officially reach the point of lunacy!“

- Rob Reid, Founder, Listen.com

ITSICopyright@2010

Increased processing power & storewidth

ITSICopyright@2010

The primary forces

ITSICopyright@2010

Industry Trends in the Ubiquitous Internet

Coming Network Society1B+ new mobile subscribers mainly in Emerging Markets

Totally up to 5B+ subscribers

Emerging Cloud ComputingTrillion US$ Internet application market

Converged value chain: Telecom, Internet, Software, Media, Electronics

Ubiquitous Broadband300M new fixed line BB subscribers, totally up to 600M

1.2B new mobile BB subscribers, totally up to 1.4B

Exploding Digital SpaceThousand Exabyte (1018) digital info

10 times traffic increase, up to 50%-80% annual growth

TheBuilding blocks

Of the CyberSphere

5,000,000,000 subscribers

ITSICopyright@2010

Mobile bandwidth forecasts

ITSICopyright@2010

Bandwidth Explosion

Faster growth than anytime in history!

DoCoMoPress release March 26th, 2008…“LTE commercial deployment 2010”

EDGE WCDMA HSPA HSPA+ I-HSPA WiMAX10 MHz

WiMAX20 MHz

SHDSL ADSL ADSL2ADSL2+ VDSL VDSL2 DSM L3

15 y 5 y

20 MHz

100-200x

ITSICopyright@2010

A new era of wireless connectivity

3.5 – 3.7 GHz

2.5 – 2.7 GHz2.4 GHz

2.1 GHz

1800 MHz

900 MHz

850 MHz

692 – 850 MHz

WiFiWiMax / LTE

CDMA 2000

UTRAN LTE

RangeNormativeBandwidth

ITSICopyright@2010

App. orContent provider

Portal Net Core ID & Billing

Intel Edge

Local loop

Users Hard

OS Browser App.

The Digital Value chainIntelligence

IdentificationPower

ITSICopyright@2010

The Digital Value chain

Open Network

Controlled Network

Portals Net Core ID &

Billing Intel. Edge

Local loop

Users Hard

OS Browser

Billing Portals Net Core Local loop

Users Hard

OS Browser Intel. ID App.

ITSICopyright@2010

Abundance

“Survival dictates that human beings develop an ethics

and aesthetics that favour exploiting fully those recourses

that exist in abundance and economizing on those items

that are in short supply.”

- Taichi Sakaiya

ITSICopyright@2010

Exploiting the abundance

"Bandwidth is doubling every 8-9 months. Storage is doubling every 12 months. Computing power is doubling every 18 months. We're here to talk about exploiting the abundance."

- Niel Robertson, Technologist-in-Residence, Mobius Venture Capital, and former Technology Advisor, Exodus

ITSICopyright@2010

The ubiquitous Internet will need

to be redefined if we are to understand its true potential.

ITSICopyright@2010

Visible & Audible spectrum

ITSICopyright@2010

The Internet is accessible everywhere on the planet

ITSICopyright@2010

The Internet is all around us,

pervasive,

intelligent

invisible,

not confined to the narrow boundaries of our mind and experience.

The story so far

ITSICopyright@2010

The building blocks of the Cybersphere

Physical Space

Mental Space

TheInternet

Cyberspace

ITSICopyright@2010

Physical Space

TheInternet

Mental Space

Cyberspace

ITSICopyright@2010

Ubiquitous Internet

Ubiquitous Cyberspace

is the virtual & physical space where all the electronic

technologies

Internet, payment systems, telephones, computing devices, media, security systems, digital personal identities, augmented

reality

- all converge into a single seamless system.

CyberSphere

ITSICopyright@2010

The CyberSphere becomes part of the Biosphere

ITSICopyright@2010

Welcome to the CyberSphere

ITSICopyright@2010

Oracle of DelphiThe Pythia (Greek: Πυθία) was the priestess

presiding over the Oracle of Apollo at Delphi, located on the slopes of Mount Parnassus.

ITSICopyright@2010

The Oracle for a new millennium

ITSICopyright@2010

What is the exchange rate right now?

ITSICopyright@2010

What will the weather be like in Port Louis, Mauritius?

ITSICopyright@2010

Where can I find the Telecosm handbook?

ITSICopyright@2010

What song is playing right now?

ITSICopyright@2010

Where is the closest resort?

ITSICopyright@2010

Where is my car?

ITSICopyright@2010

What is happening at my office?

ITSICopyright@2010

Where is the closest open restaurant?

ITSICopyright@2010

Augmented reality is just around the corner

Special at Baby City: Pamper nappies (0-3month)R99.00/40

Special at BabysRus: Pamper nappies (0-3month)R80.00/40

ITSICopyright@2010

Augmented reality is just around the corner

Special at Baby City: Pamper nappies (0-3month)R99.00/40

Special at BabysRus: Pamper nappies (0-3month)R80.00/40

ITSICopyright@2010

AR for the London Underground

ITSICopyright@2010

Technology’s impact on time and space

Internet Protocol

InformationBecomes

Agnostic to Content

Bandwidth

InformationBecomes

Agnostic to Time

Connectivity

InformationBecomes

Agnostic to Space

Quality ofExperience

InformationBecomes

Agnostic to Form

ITSICopyright@2010

The Advertiser’s dream

ITSICopyright@2010

The Future of Mobile Commerce…

… will increasingly link the Virtual World to the real word.

On every phone

Everywhere

ITSICopyright@2010

Leveraging the QR and Bar code revolution

ITSICopyright@2010

Leveraging the QR and Bar code revolution

ITSICopyright@2010

Get your horse ready

ITSICopyright@2010

One click e-Commerce

Handheld TV units have bi-directional communicationcapabilities, which allows for sequential e-Commerce applications.

ITSICopyright@2010

Wearable computer interfaces

ITSICopyright@2010

Augmented reality

ITSICopyright@2010

Telepresence - today and tomorrow

ITSICopyright@2010

RFID & Auto Identification

Source: www.autoid.org

ITSICopyright@2010

Supermarkets & RFIDs

ITSICopyright@2010

Payment via Near Field CommunicationEarly market: Hong Kong

Acceptance of Octopus Card for mini and micro-payments

throughout the city. Nokia and Sony are ready to

launch NFC phones in Hong Kong in 3rd Qtr 2006

ITSICopyright@2010

The eBook competition is heating up

AmazonKindle

Sony eBookReader

B&N Reader$199

Apple iPad $499

ITSICopyright@2010

My Avatar and I

ITSICopyright@2010

Avatars and their owners

ITSICopyright@2010

Life in Second World

ITSICopyright@2010

Will this be life in the Cybersphere?

Wifi coverage built into public phone terminals

Smart Barbie with GPS tracking, personality chip and full sensory input

Artificial Intelligent houses which react to occupants

ITSICopyright@2010

2011Hospitals use virtual queuing systems

Neural networks used for patient appointment management

Multimedia patient records

ITSICopyright@2010

Home manager computer

Chips in packaging control cooking

Washing machine aware of contents and selects cycle

ITSICopyright@2010

2012Electronic wallpaperFull voice interaction with machine Anti-noise technology built into homes

Programmable noise cancellation earplugs

ITSICopyright@2010

Voice synthesis quality up to human standard

Voice over IP spam calls become prevalent

Highly integrated biosensors

ITSICopyright@2010

2013Video surveillance of neighbours becomes social problem

Government introduce legislation to protect local community Intellectual Property from exploitation in the Virtual World

ITSICopyright@2010

2014Electronic cash from internet migrates onto high street

Personal banking replaced by agentsGlobal barter sub-economy

ITSICopyright@2010

2014Shadow democracy used in community networks

Most tickets electronic In-store positioning systems enable personalised guides

ITSICopyright@2010

Artificial Intelligent teachers get better results than most human teachers

3D TV without need for special glasses

Holographic displays for continuous video

3D video conferencing

ITSICopyright@2010

Genetic screening widely used

Lifestyle monitoring and insurance linked to medical records

Operations videoed and stored as part of medical record

ITSICopyright@2010

Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?

Spread of nomadic information companies leads to global taxation

Integrated taxation in all transactions

More people using telework centres than home working

ITSICopyright@2010

Office Automation systems using functions similar to brain functions

Satellite location devices implanted into humans become commonplace

Machine use of human-like creativity

ITSICopyright@2010

Virtual companies and virtual co-operatives dominate

Purely electronic companies exist - minimal human involvement

ITSICopyright@2010

VR overlays on real world

VR escapism is a major social problem

ITSICopyright@2010

Online surgeries dominate first line medical care

Quiz shows screen for implant technologies

Some implants seen as status symbols

ITSICopyright@2010

ID cards replaced by biometric scanning

Cyberspace covers 75% of developed world

ITSICopyright@2010

Global voting on some issuesNetwork based telepathyVR extensively used in retirement homes

ITSICopyright@2010

Creation of “The Matrix” Experience recording Real toy soldiers using nanotechnology

ITSICopyright@2010

Business Opportunities in a world of abundance

Personalised TV advertisements Shared RAN with Government / Competitors Video glasses “Time share” Virtual Presence Free in-company cellular calls via Piconets /

Femtocells to counter SIP over WiFi Paris Metro Pricing to counter Skype over 3G

/ LTE Personal Cockpit to allow web agents to

gather all relevant information on your behalf Management of all your IP addresses via

your own cockpit

ITSICopyright@2010

Universal Resource Locater (URL)125.14.123.123 is actually www.cnn.com

So, if your devices are called196.14.23.45.13.126

198.34.56.78.123.235 or198.34.56.78.235.12

What prohibits us then from giving all our devices

an easy-to-remember name?

Which bring us to the next question:

ITSICopyright@2010

What will be the most important Internet address in my life?

Pieter.Geldenhuys.rsa.namephone.pieter.geldenhuys.rsa.name

Registrations for rsa.name opened 1st Q of 2004 !

home.pieter.geldenhuys.rsa.name

car.pieter.geldenhuys.rsa.name

ITSICopyright@2010

Smart Barbie with personality chip and full sensory input

Artificial Intelligent houses which react to occupants

Expert systems surpass human learning and logic abilities

ITSICopyright@2010

Will this be life in the Cybersphere?Home manager computer

Chips in packaging control cooking

Washing machine aware of contents and selects cycle

ITSICopyright@2010

Windows with holographic coatings to re-direct sunlight

Virtual windowsFull voice interaction with machine

ITSICopyright@2010

Voice synthesis quality up to human standard

Talking head technology used in public terminals

Highly integrated biosensors

ITSICopyright@2010

Office Automation systems using functions similar to brain functions

Satellite location devices implanted into humans become commonplace

Machine use of human-like creativity

ITSICopyright@2010

Hospitals use virtual queuing systems

Neural networks used for patient appointment management

Multimedia patient records

ITSICopyright@2010

Genetic screening widely used

Lifestyle monitoring and insurance linked to medical records

Operations videoed and stored as part of medical record

ITSICopyright@2010

Will this be life in the Cybersphere?Virtual companies and virtual co-operatives dominate

Purely electronic companies exist - minimal human involvement

ITSICopyright@2010

Technological events that will define the epoch

VR overlays on real world

VR escapism is a major social problem

Direct electronic pleasure production

Artificial senses, sensors directly stimulating nerves

ITSICopyright@2010

Online surgeries dominate first line medical care

Quiz shows screen for implant technologies

Some implants seen as status symbols

ITSICopyright@2010

Artificial Intelligent teachers get better results than most human teachers

3D TV without need for special glasses

Holographic displays for continuous video

3D video conferencing

ITSICopyright@2010

Dual geo/cyber-nationality recognised internationally

Use of virtual environments for proxy space exploration Emotion transmission and conversion (feel love or anger)

Digital image overlays enhance relationships

ITSICopyright@2010

Desktop computer as fast as human brain

1 Petabit memory chip

AI technology imitating thinking processes of the brain

ITSICopyright@2010

Parallel computer with 1000 million processors

ID cards replaced by biometric scanning

Cyberspace covers 75% of developed world

ITSICopyright@2010

Get more projections about the future at

ITSICopyright@2010

Use of talking head technology for conferencing

Net bring and buy exchangesShopping lists automatically compiled by supermarkets

ITSICopyright@2010

Personal shopping tabletsPeople have cyberspace wardrobeFrequent use of multiple Net identities causes personality disorders

South Korean company selling Avatar clothing

made more than $ 10 million

profit in 2003 !!!

ITSICopyright@2010

First cellular phone virus becomes prevalent

RFIDs become commonplaceGlobal electronic currency in use Conferencing technology for remote socialising in public places

ITSICopyright@2010

1000 000 000 Internet usersPeople reduce tax liability by being partially paid in information products

Replacement of people leads to anti-technology subculture

ITSICopyright@2010

Digital bathroom mirrorMagazine tabletsPersonalised response from household gadgets

Electronic newspapers

ITSICopyright@2010

Automated real life highlight channels on digital TV

VR overlays on real world Paper and coins largely replaced by electronic cash

ITSICopyright@2010

Electronic wallpaperMood sensitive light bulbsAnti-noise technology built into homes

Programmable noise cancellation earplugs

ITSICopyright@2010

Video surveillance of neighbours becomes social problem

Government introduce legislation to protect local community IP

Social software, organising functions etc

Holodeck meeting room

ITSICopyright@2010

Electronic cash from internet migrates onto high street

Personal banking replaced by agentsGlobal barter sub-economy

ITSICopyright@2010

Shadow democracy used in community networks

Most tickets electronic In-store positioning systems enable personalised guides

ITSICopyright@2010

More people using telework centres than home working

ITSICopyright@2010

Most towns echoed in cyberspaceEmotion transmission and conversion (feel love or anger)

Major pension crises

ITSICopyright@2010

Global voting on some issuesNetwork based telepathyVR extensively used in retirement homes

ITSICopyright@2010

Creation of “The Matrix” Experience recording Real toy soldiers using nanotechnology

ITSICopyright@2010

How do you create value in this environment?

ITSICopyright@2010

Sections of the presentation available on

www.itsi.org.za

Training -> Strategy Partners

Username: StrategyPassword: Partners

primedia

noise technology built

agents global barter

economy itsi copyright 2010

special glassesholographic displays

itsi copyright 2010

building blocks

corner special

status symbolsitsicopyright 2010

Documents

chevy/ primedia

if you love joburg, 947 loves you. -...

new products(203) 778-4839 primedia@statlistics.com...

broadcast intertec/primedia ...€¦ · an broadcast...

brc rams, april 2019 march...

nab2002 - americanradiohistory.combe june 2002 nab2002...

primedia: chevrolet case study, fall 2010

audience -...

brc rams : april 2019 - march...

ladies night out - image and video upload,...

audience -...

brc rams, april 2019 march...

april 1998 an intertec /primedia publication ...computer...

the radio technology leader 2002...design director -alan...

primedia: final chevrolet yearbook

broad–based bee verification certificate · 2018. 1....

parent advocates - parentadvocates.org › nicemedia ›...

unisa study notes · read the primedia case study in...

primedia outdoor namibia (pty) ltd v kauluma (lca 95 …...

primedia engineering® · running digital and analog can be...