projecting fia data with fvs and organon greg latta oregon state university college of forest...
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Projecting FIA Data With FVS and ORGANON
Greg Latta
Oregon State University
College of Forest Resources
A Cry For Help(or Discussion)
RegardingProjecting FIA Data With FVS
and ORGANON
Greg Latta
Background
• Regional and Nation forest sector economics models need timber supply representation.
• Look at moving from a strata based inventory/harvest scheduler to more detail.
• FIA plot level Growth and Yield modeling as “Supply Curves” in Economic Models
Nationwide G&Y Modeling
• All FIA plots would be modeled.
• That lead to FVS as G&Y model.
• If we used FVS in the PNW what differences might we expect from recent regional work.
A Comparison
• We decided to grow all FIA private forestland plots (condition classes) in both FVS and ORGANON and make a comparison.
• How to do this and keep them anywhere near comparable?
Models Used
• ORGANON DLL (2 versions)– Both SW and SMC dll’s dated 7/10/2002
• FVS (3 versions)– PNW Coast dated 12/6/2002– W Cascades dated 12/6/2002– Klamath Mt. Dated 12/13/2002
Approach #1
• Use same tree lists
• Use same volume equations
• Use same trees for site index computations
• SET MAX SDI the same.
Western Oregon Hardwood BF Volumes
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
1997
2007
2017
2027
2037
2047
2057
2067
2077
2087
2097
Bil
lio
ns
ORG
FVS
Western Oregon Softwood BF Volumes
0.00
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
1997
2007
2017
2027
2037
2047
2057
2067
2077
2087
2097
Bil
lio
ns
ORG
FVS
Softwood BF For Stands 65 Years Old Plus
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 2052 2057 2062 2067 2072 2077 2082 2087 2092 2097
Bill
ion
s
FVS KLAM
ORG KLAM
FVS OCST
ORG OCST
FVS WCASC
ORG WCASC
FVS WCST
ORG WCST
Approach #2
• Use same tree lists
• Use same volume equations
• Use same trees for site index computations
• SET FVS MAX BA to ORGANON MAX BA.
Western Oregon Hardwood BF Volumes
05
1015202530354045
1997
2007
2017
2027
2037
2047
2057
2067
2077
2087
2097
Bil
lio
ns
ORG
FVS
Western Oregon Softwood BF Volumes
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1997
2007
2017
2027
2037
2047
2057
2067
2077
2087
2097
Bil
lio
ns
ORG
FVS
Possible Issues
• Hardwoods
• Large tree recruitment
• Long Rotations
• Carbon Sequestration
So what do you want it to be???
Bonus SlidesHere I’ll show 3 stand level info. I chose 3 young doug-fir stands. I will have a SVS stand “picture” as well as boardfoot volumes (hardwood and softwood—this may seem silly but the program graphs both and I am just doing a screen capture), cubic foot volumes, softwood QMD, total basal area per acre and stand density index.
Stand 1 -- is FIA county 41, plot 36, condition class 1. It is a young stand with 405 doug-fir per acre. The Bruce site index is 160. This stand is grown in the SMC ORGANON and PN FVS.
Stand 2 -- is FIA county 39, plot 32, condition class 1. It is a young stand with 395 doug-fir per acre. The Bruce site index is 131 and Cochran site index is 180. This stand is grown in the SMC ORGANON and WC FVS.
Stand 3 -- is FIA county 33, plot 83, condition class 1. It is a young stand with 490 doug-fir per acre. The HannScrivani site index is 86 and King site index is 85. This stand is grown in the SWO ORGANON and NC FVS.
Stand 1 SVS representation
Stand 1 BF Graphs –Alternative 1
Stand 1 BF Graphs –Alternative 2
The program scales the
graphs so this one has a different
scale. Sorry.
Stand 1 CF, BA, SDI Graphs –Alternative 1
Stand 1 CF, BA, SDI Graphs –Alternative 2
Stand 2 SVS representation
Stand 2 BF Graphs –Alternative 1
Stand 2 BF Graphs –Alternative 2
Stand 2 CF, BA, SDI Graphs –Alternative 1
Stand 2 CF, BA, SDI Graphs –Alternative 2
Stand 3 SVS representation
Stand 3 BF Graphs –Alternative 1
Stand 3 BF Graphs –Alternative 2
Stand 3 CF, BA, SDI Graphs –Alternative 1
Stand 3 CF, BA, SDI Graphs –Alternative 2
I checked the keyword file and
this guy had a BAMAX of 381. In the output file there was a note
that the forest max of 850 had been exceeded and so 850 was the SDI used for Doug-fir
Super Bonus Slide - I had it so here it is. These are the SDI and Basal area per acre values over time for the control plots at several LOGS installations. Does SDI peak and stay there or does it come down? Does BA/acre keep going up? Who knows, but look
at all the pretty colors.
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