regional growth strategy work session...regional growth strategy work plan dseis release feb 2019...

September 6, 2018

Regional Growth Strategy Work SessionGrowth Management Policy Board

1

Overview

2

• Recap June GMPB work session

• Objectives and outcomes

• Regional geographies

• Growth scenarios

• Breakout Discussion: transit-oriented development goals and jobs-housing balance

• Next steps

Scenarios and geographies

Summer 2018

Draft V2050 release

Summer 2019

GMPB extended meeting

June 7, 2018

• Background• Growth strategy performance• Relationship to targets• Growth strategy objectives• Regional geographies

Regional Growth Strategy Work Plan

DSEIS releaseFeb 2019

GMPB extended meeting

Sept 6, 2018

GMPB extended meeting

Nov 1, 2018

…Refine

scenarios/altsFall 2018

3

Scenarios and geographies

Summer 2018

Draft V2050 release

Summer 2019

GMPB extended meeting

June 7, 2018

Regional Growth Strategy Work Plan

DSEIS releaseFeb 2019

GMPB extended meeting

Sept 6, 2018

GMPB extended meeting

Nov 1, 2018

…Refine

scenarios/altsFall 2018

• Develop one or more growth scenarios for early evaluation

• Continue refinement after Sept 2018 GMPB discussion

4

Scenarios and geographies

Summer 2018

Draft V2050 release

Summer 2019

GMPB extended meeting

June 7, 2018

Regional Growth Strategy Work Plan

DSEIS releaseFeb 2019

GMPB extended meeting

Sept 6, 2018

GMPB extended meeting

Nov 1, 2018

…Refine

scenarios/altsFall 2018

• Nov 2018 GMPB: Define alternatives – “no action” plus modified growth strategy alternative(s) for environmental review

• (accelerated compared to Feb version of work plan)

5

2050 Forecast

6

→ 1.8 million more people and 1.2 million more jobs by 2050

Regional Growth Strategy

7

• Aspirational, but achievable

• Growth focused in Urban Growth Areas, cities, centers

• Move towards jobs/housing balance

• Preserves and supports rural and resource lands

• Environmental, economic, transportation benefits

• Numeric guidance for targets

• Land use & transportation connection

VISION 2040 – Regional Geographies Map

Growth Strategy Objectives

• Protect natural environment & resource lands

• Focus growth within Urban Growth Areas, cities, and centers

• Keep rural areas rural

• Improve balance of jobs and housing across region

• Achieve growth pattern that is efficient to serve with infrastructure

• Minimize emissions that affect climate

• Tool to implement VISION 2040 policy objectives

VISION 2040 Objectives - Recap

9

GMPB June Discussion

• General support for the existing objectives

• Interest in being more specific about desired outcomes

• Housing was a major theme, including affordable housing and balancing housing needs and incomes

• Objectives should be measurable

• Other topics identified:

o TOD opportunities, health and equity, innovation and change, etc.

10

Regional Staff Committee June-July Discussion• Protect, restore, and enhance environmental features and habitats

• Facilitate access to different types of jobs & housing throughout region

• Maintain industrial lands and freight movement

• Emphasize leveraging major transit and infrastructure investments

• Support public health

• Create a region of centers

• Address social equity and displacement11

• Maintain stable urban growth areas

• Focus the great majority of new population and employment within urban growth areas

• Maintain a variety of community types, densities, and sizes

• Achieve a better balance of jobs and housing across the region

RGS Objectives –Physical Characteristics

13

RGS Objectives –Physical Characteristics• Within urban growth areas, focus growth in cities

• Within cities, create and support centers to serve as concentrations of jobs, housing, services, and other activities

• Build transit-oriented development around planned infrastructure

• Use existing infrastructure and new investments efficiently

• Climate

• Community & Culture

• Economy

• Environment

• Health

• Housing

• Innovation

Outcomes

14

• Mobility and Connectivity

• Natural Resources

• Public Facilities & Services

• Resilience

• Rural Areas

• Social Equity

Regional Geographies

Regional Growth Strategy Components

Regional Geographies.Groupings of places within the Regional Growth Strategy

Growth Scenarios. Concepts for how growth should be assigned. Some scenarios may become SEPA alternatives.

Screening Factors. Short list of measures to evaluate growth scenarios.

Regional Geographies

17

Metropolitan Cities Core Cities Larger Cities

Largest cities in each county: Seattle, Bellevue, Everett, Tacoma and Bremerton

All other cities with Regional Growth Centers

Cities with more than 22,500 combined jobs & population

Regional Geographies

18

Small Cities Rural

Resource LandsUnincorporated Urban

Cities with less than 22,500 combined jobs & population

Designated agricultural, forest, & mineral lands

Unincorporated areas located within the Urban Growth Area

Other areas located outside the Urban Growth Area

Regional Geographies

Scoping Comments:

• Consider changes to Small, Larger, Urban Unincorporated

• Address key differences in transit + infrastructure

• Address Major Military Installations

VISION 2040 – Regional Geographies Map

Regional GeographiesProposal:

• Reaffirm focus on jurisdictions with designated regional centers

• Differentiate current Small and Larger cities by existing and planned high-capacity transit

– Includes light rail, bus rapid transit, commuter rail, ferry & streetcar

• Identify unincorporated urban areas with high-quality transit service

• Recognize Major Military Installations

2020

Proposed Regional Geographies Map

Proposed Regional Geographies

21

Current Proposed

Metropolitan Cities Metropolitan Cities

Core Cities Core Cities

Larger Cities High Capacity Transit Communities

Small Cities Cities and Towns

Urban Unincorporated Areas Urban Unincorporated Areas

Rural Rural

Resource Resource

Major Military Installations

Discussion Questions

22

• Does the board have any additional comments on the proposed regional geographies?

• Should these draft changes be used as PSRC develops new growth alternatives for VISION 2050?

Growth Scenarios

Performance Overall

• Long range, big picture – trends are moving towards Regional Growth Strategy

o More growth in urban areas, cities and centers

o Less growth in rural and resource areas

• Metro cities still catching up; unincorporated urban continue to grow faster than RGS

• County-level jobs/housing balance better than anticipated; still long-term challenge

24

Preliminary Growth Scenarios

25

• Stay the Course. Extends VISION 2040 growth assumptions to 2050

• Forward from 2017. Applies VISION 2040 growth assumptions to a 2017 base

• Dispersed Urban Growth. Distributes growth broadly across urban growth area

• Transit Focused Growth. Distributes more growth around high capacity transit

Population Change by Proposed ScenariosTotal Population Change: 1.8 million new people by 2050

VISION 2040 – Stay the CourseExtends VISION 2040 growth assumptions to 2050

GeographyAmount of

Regional GrowthShare of

Regional Growth

Metropolitan Cities 607,000 35%

Core Cities 488,000 28%

Transit Communities 307,000 17%

Cities & Towns 174,000 10%

Urban Unincorporated 85,000 5%

Rural 95,000 5%

Population Change: 2017 to 2050

Scenario 1: Forward from 2017

GeographyShare of

Regional GrowthDifference from Stay the Course

Metropolitan Cities 33% -24,000

Core Cities 27% -11,000

Transit Communities 17% -10,000

Cities & Towns 10% 9,000

Urban Unincorporated 6% 27,000

Rural 6% 9,000

Population Change: 2017 to 2050

Applies VISION 2040 growth assumptions to a 2017 base

Distributes growth broadly across urban growth area

GeographyShare of

Regional GrowthDifference from Stay the Course

Metropolitan Cities 15% -344,000

Core Cities 15% -225,000

Transit Communities 20% 44,000

Cities & Towns 25% 265,000

Urban Unincorporated 20% 266,000

Rural 5% -7,000

Population Change: 2017 to 2050

Scenario 2: Dispersed Urban Growth

GeographyShare of

Regional GrowthDifference from Stay the Course

Metropolitan Cities 38% 58,000

Core Cities 33% 85,000

Transit Communities 17% -3,000

Cities & Towns 6% -68,000

Urban Unincorporated 4% -13,000

Rural 2% -60,000

Population Change: 2017 to 2050

Scenario 3: Transit Focused GrowthDistributes more growth around high capacity transit

Employment Change by Proposed ScenarioTotal Employment Change: 1.2 million new jobs by 2050

VISION 2040 – Stay the CourseExtends VISION 2040 growth assumptions to 2050

GeographyRegional Growth

by GeographyShare of

Regional Growth

Metropolitan Cities 509,000 44%

Core Cities 413,000 36%

Transit Communities 126,000 11%

Cities & Towns 65,000 6%

Urban Unincorporated 30,000 3%

Rural 14,000 1%

Employment Change: 2017 to 2050

Scenario 1: Forward from 2017

GeographyShare of

Regional GrowthDifference from Stay the Course

Metropolitan Cities 43% -12,000

Core Cities 35% -7,000

Transit Communities 11% -2,000

Cities & Towns 6% 5,000

Urban Unincorporated 3% 5,000

Rural 2% 11,000

Employment Change: 2017 to 2050

Applies VISION 2040 growth assumptions to a 2017 base

GeographyShare of

Regional GrowthDifference from Stay the Course

Metropolitan Cities 23% -243,000

Core Cities 20% -181,000

Transit Communities 20% 106,000

Cities & Towns 20% 167,000

Urban Unincorporated 15% 144,000

Rural 2% 9,000

Employment Change: 2017 to 2050

Scenario 2: Dispersed Urban GrowthDistributes growth broadly across the urban growth area

Distributes more growth around high capacity transit

GeographyShare of

Regional GrowthDifference from Stay the Course

Metropolitan Cities 44% 1,000

Core Cities 37% 18,000

Transit Communities 12% 11,000

Cities & Towns 4% -19,000

Urban Unincorporated 2% -7,000

Rural 1% -3,000

Employment Change: 2017 to 2050

Scenario 3: Transit Focused Growth

Preliminary Round 1 Screening Factors

Short list of measures to evaluate growth scenarios

Mobility. Delay, transit ridership, mode share

Growth Near Transit. New people and jobs near transit [forthcoming]

Housing Choice. Growth at high, medium & low densities

Access to Opportunity. Growth in moderate to high opportunity areas

Jobs-Housing Balance. Ratio by county and subarea

Environment. Greenhouse gas emissions [forthcoming]

Screening Factors

PRELIMINARY Scenario Summary Findings

Stay the Course

Forward from 2017

Dispersed Urban Growth

Transit Focused Growth

SOV Mode Share – All Trips 35% - +4% -2%

Delay per Person 47 +1% +13% +2%

Annual Transit Boardings 470,000,000 +4% - 6% +14%

Delay per Truck 108 - +5% -

Mobility

PRELIMINARY Scenario Summary Findings

Stay the Course

Forward from 2017

Dispersed Urban

Growth

Transit Focused Growth

% Lower Density (single family) 54% + 1% + 7% - 5%

% Medium (duplex, triplex, low-rise) 18% - - -

% High Density (larger apt, condo bldgs) 28% - 1% - 7% + 5%

Stay the Course

Forward from 2017

Dispersed Urban Growth

Transit Focused Growth

% Very Low and Low Opportunity 48% - 4% - 9% - 1%

% Moderate, High and Very High

Opportunity52% + 4% + 9% + 1%

Housing Choice

Access to Opportunity

PRELIMINARY Scenario Summary Findings

Stay the Course

Forward from 2017

Dispersed Urban Growth

Transit Focused Growth

King County 1.26 -5% -4% -4%

Kitsap County 0.65 14% 12% 14%

Pierce County 0.76 2% 3% 1%

Snohomish County 0.77 - -1% 1%

Jobs-Housing Balance

Policy Questions

Jobs-Housing Balance

42

To improve jobs-housing balance, VISION 2040:• Increased share of residential growth planned for King

County• Increased share of employment growth planned for

Kitsap, Pierce and Snohomish counties

2000-40 2000-40

Pop V2040 RGS Pop

% Shares Policy % Shares

(SAF06) Adjustment (V2040 RGS)

King County 39% + 3% 42%

Kitsap County 8% + 1% 9%

Pierce County 25% - 2% 23%

Snohomish County 28% - 2% 26%

Region Total 100% 100%

Policy Adjustment - Population

2000-40 2000-40

Emp V2040 RGS Emp

% Shares Policy % Shares

(SAF06) Adjustment (V2040 RGS)

King County 62% - 5% 57%

Kitsap County 4% + 1% 5%

Pierce County 15% + 2% 17%

Snohomish County 18% + 2% 20%

Region Total 100% 100%

Policy Adjustment - Employment

Jobs-Housing Balance

43

Does the board want to consider policy-oriented adjustments to the county shares to promote a different balance of population and employment?

County Population Shares in VISION 2040

Baseline 2017-50 Population Share

King 42% 50%

Kitsap 9% 5%

Pierce 23% 21%

Snohomish 26% 24%

County Employment Shares in VISION 2040

Baseline 2017-50 Employment Share

King 57% 64%

Kitsap 5% 4%

Pierce 17% 15%

Snohomish 20% 17%

Growth Near Transit

44

Growing Transit Communities: 25% of housing and 35% of employment growth in light rail corridors

Should we consider a specific goal for growth in transit station areas? If yes, how aggressive should that goal be?

Current ConditionsStay the Course

2050

Population 19% 33%

Employment 47% 58%

Work Session - Discussion Questions

45

• Jobs-Housing Balance: Does the board want to consider policy-oriented adjustments to the county shares to promote a different balance of population and employment?

• Transit: Should we consider a specific goal for growth in transit station areas? If yes, how aggressive should that goal be?

Growth Management Policy Board Work Session

Regional Growth Strategy

11:15 am .……. Breakout sessions

12:00 pm .……. Break

12:15 pm .……. Summary of Breakout Sessions, continue discussion

Meeting video will resume at about 12:15 pm

Preliminary Growth Scenarios

47

• Stay the Course.• Extends VISION 2040 growth assumptions to 2050

• Forward from 2017. • Applies VISION 2040 growth assumptions to a 2017 base

• Dispersed Urban Growth. • Distributes growth broadly across urban growth area

• Transit Focused Growth. • Distributes more growth around high capacity transit

Discussion Questions

48

• Should staff continue to develop these concepts as potential environmental analysis alternatives, including any adjustments directed by the board?

• Should any of the scenarios be removed from consideration at this time?

Next Steps

• Continue discussion & development with committeeso Discuss scenario concepts with staff committees

o Additional modeling

• Background paper (September 2018)

o Summarize background & performance data on the Regional Growth Strategy

• November GMPB – finalize alternatives for environmental review

49

Thank you

50