resilient cities - peak oil and climate change - vancouver board of trade nov 2010

Dynamic Cities:Planning for Peak Oil and

Climate Change

Bryn DavidsonB.Eng. M.Arch. LEED-AP

Peak Oil and

Climate Change

US Domestic Oil Production

US Energy Information Agency

US Energy Information Agency

US Energy Information Agency

US Energy Information Agency

Peak Oil

+ Climate Change

The Dynamic City = Sustainable and Resilient

Make resilient investments in infrastructure

Create resilient city systems

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The Dynamic City = Sustainable and Resilient

Make resilient investments in infrastructure(invest in projects that retain their value across many futures)

Create resilient city systems

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Scenario Planning!

The Dynamic City = Sustainable and Resilient

Make resilient investments in infrastructure

Create resilient city systems(that remain functional, and fair, through transition shocks)

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Prepare for Likely Transition Shocks

The Dynamic City = Sustainable and Resilient

=

Why are we only planning for a future that looks like the past?

Bundle of strategies for reducing emissions.

Only ~15% of strategies address oil dependence

BC: ‘Gateway’ Highway Expansions

?

Why are we only planning for a future that looks like the past?

‘Peak Oil’ is missing from the conversation.

WA: Alaskan Way Viaduct Tunnel

BC: ‘Gateway’ Highway Expansions

Why are we only planning for a future that looks like the past?

WA: Alaskan Way Viaduct Tunnel

Why are we only planning for a future that looks like the past?

San Antonio: 410 Expansion

WA: Alaskan Way Viaduct Tunnel

Do these projects still have value in a future defined by peak oil and climate change?

San Antonio: 410 Expansion

WA: Alaskan Way Viaduct Tunnel

Will they become stranded assets?Are they diverting resources from more important projects?

San Antonio: 410 Expansion

Will they become stranded assets?Are they diverting resources from more important projects?

Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change

Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by

increasing prices)

B.A.U. (Population and economic

growth)

Today

Oil Depletion Scenario: Conventional OilAvailable to U.S. Consumers

Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change

Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by

increasing prices)

B.A.U. (Population and economic

growth)

Today

Total miles driven using oil-based diesel fuel

Example: Freight Truck Miles

Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change

Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by

increasing prices)

B.A.U. (Population and economic

growth)

Today

Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change

Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by

increasing prices)

B.A.U. (Population and economic

growth)

Today

Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change

Tar Sands, Shale, Coal Liquids Etc.

Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by

increasing prices)

B.A.U. (Population and economic

growth)

Today

Total Transportation Capacity

Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change

Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by

increasing prices)

B.A.U. (Population and economic

growth)

Today

Required Road Capacity: Peak Roads?

Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change

Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by

increasing prices)

B.A.U. (Population and economic

growth)

Today

Local Population Growth Scenario: including migration driven by peak oil and climate change

Population

Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change

Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by

increasing prices)

B.A.U. (Population and economic

growth)

Today

Mobility Shortage vs. Today’s Standards

Population

Widening Mobility Gap

Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change

Concern for climate change is critical, but what really drives change ‘at scale’?

- Price Spikes- Recession- Rationing- Shortages

- Price Spikes- Recession- Rationing- Shortages

= Transition Shocks

Is this an investment that has value in a post-oil world?Does it contribute to a resilient transportation system?

- Price Spikes- Recession- Rationing- Shortages

= Transition Shocks

The Dynamic City = ‘Sustainable’ + Resilient

Planning Dynamic Cities:

1. Throw away your extrapolated forecasts

2. Get your team up to speed on peak oil and climate change

3. Create a Transition Scenario for your region / organization (Bundle together multiple assumptions)

4. ‘Stress Test’ Projects- Test your project’s value across multiple scenarios- Test your technology and funding through transition shocks

5. Start talking about the ‘Resilient Post-Carbon Economy’- Prioritize projects reducing emissions and oil dependence- New low carbon trade links within the Cascadia mega-region- Plan as if we’re at ‘peak roads’

Investing in electrified rail (skytrain, streetcars, freight rail)

Bike Lanes: Facilitating ‘Post-Carbon’ Consumer and Employee Mobility

‘Net Positive’ BusinessAs the business grows, regional oil consumption goes down

‘Post Carbon’ Goods Movement

‘Post Carbon’ Goods Movement

All electric goods movement

Rail to Electric cross docking(False Creek Flats)

‘Eco-density’Laneway Housing

Bryn DavidsonB.Eng. M.Arch. LEED-AP

bryn@dynamiccities.org

604.728.0606