result update aditya birla fashionand retail...
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Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com, Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset. Edelweiss Securities Limited
Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail’s (ABFRL) 12.5% YoY revenue growth came in line with estimate, while EBITDA spurt of 30.7% and PAT at INR218mn surpassed estimates. After 4‐5 quarters of decline, Lifestyle brands (core Madura brands) posted flattish SSG; this, coupled with increased transparency—reported 15.6% core EBITDA margin for the first time—is encouraging. Pantaloons’ SSG slipped 5% owing to advancing of EOSS, which should recover. Fast Fashion revenue (Forever21 and People) catapulted 205% and the growth story is on track. We are enthused by ABFRL’s leadership in Madura, Pantaloons’ stronghold in womens segment, as well as the Forever21 acquisition. Maintain ‘BUY’.
Commendable transparency, Pantaloons disappoints
Q4FY17 for ABFRL was characterised by improvement post demonetisation woes with
flattish Lifestyle brands’ SSG after 4‐5 quarters of decline. The company surprised the
Street by disclosing EBITDA margin for its Lifestlye brands, which came at 15.6% YoY
versus Arvind’s Power brands’ ~14.0%. However, Pantaloons disappointed by reporting
negative 5% SSG, primarily due to store disruptions and early EOSS, which commenced in
December end. Pantaloons is, however, confident of recovery and has opened 79 stores
(33 of which were added in Q4FY17, mostly back‐ended). ABFRL’s Fast Fashion is on track
(205% YoY growth) and the company expects Forever21 to turn EBITDA positive by FY18.
EBITDA margin expanded 98bps YoY, which we estimate to improve sharply once
operating leverage benefits start kicking in.
Q4FY17 conference call: Key takeaways
ABFRL estimates the Indian branded apparel segment to double over the next 5 years.
Womenswear and casualwear segments continued to lead market growth. ABFRL is
planning to invest further in Madura brands, which is bound to improve margin.
Pantaloons’ SSG was impacted by 2 store shut downs/renovations. ABFRL is targeting SSG
of 5% in Pantaloons with a shortened EOSS.
Outlook and valuations: Robust growth trajectory; maintain ‘BUY’
Anchored by anticipated revival in Madura and Pantaloons, we are confident of
resumption of strong growth trajectory starting H1FY18. We assign 20x FY19E
EV/EBITDA and arrive at target price of INR200. The stock is currently trading at 17.3x
FY19E EV/EBITDA. We maintain ‘BUY/SO’.
RESULT UPDATE
ADITYA BIRLA FASHION AND RETAIL LTD
Transparency improves, Pantaloons’ SSG to recover
EDELWEISS 4D RATINGS
Absolute Rating BUY
Rating Relative to Sector Outperform
Risk Rating Relative to Sector Low
Sector Relative to Market Underweight
MARKET DATA (R: PNTA.BO, B: ABFRL IN)
CMP : INR 170
Target Price : INR 200
52‐week range (INR) : 186 / 123
Share in issue (mn) : 771.5
M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : 131 / 2,040
Avg. Daily Vol.BSE/NSE(‘000) : 820.3 SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%)
Current Q2FY17 Q1FY17
Promoters *
59.3 59.4 59.4
MF's, FI's & BK’s 15.0 13.5 13.6
FII's 11.1 12.4 12.5
Others 14.5 14.7 14.5
* Promoters pledged shares (% of share in issue)
: NIL
PRICE PERFORMANCE (%)
Stock Nifty
EW Retail Index
1 month (5.0) 2.7 3.5
3 months 13.4 7.8 12.6
12 months 7.2 20.3 33.2
Abneesh Roy +91 22 6620 3141
abneesh.roy@edelweissfin.com
Tanmay Sharma +91 22 4040 7586
tanmay.sharma@edelweissfin.com
Alok Shah +91 22 6620 3040
alok.shah@edelweissfin.com
India Equity Research| Retail
May 12, 2017
Financials (INR mn)
Year to March Q4FY17 Q4FY16 % change Q3FY17 % change FY17E FY18E FY19E
Net rev. 16,149 14,356 12.5 16,990 (4.9) 66,025 74,724 86,884
EBITDA 1,140 872 30.7 877 30.0 4,368 6,108 8,545
Adjusted Profit 218 (1,090) NM (124) NM 528 1,564 3,269
Dilu. EPS (INR) 0.3 (1.4) NM (0.2) NM 0.7 2.0 4.3
Dilu.P/E (x) 247.5 83.6 40.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 34.6 24.6 17.3
ROAE (%) 5.4 14.6 24.8
Retail
2 Edelweiss Securities Limited
Table 1: Trends at a glance
Source: Company, Edelweiss research
* SSG and EBITDA margins from Q4FY17 reflects numbers for core Madura brands categorized as Lifestyle brand
ABFRL Q4FY17 concall: Key takeaways
Market environment and demonetisation
Overall quarter saw sharp recovery post demonetisation.
Discounting and promotions continued to remain high during the full price periods as
players sought growth in a soft business environment.
Prolonged EOSS in summer (Jul‐Aug 2016) as well as winter (Jan‐Feb 2017).
E‐commerce discounts reduced marginally as the industry heads towards consolidation.
Indian branded apparel segment is poised to double in next 5 years.
Wholesale channel and smaller towns more severely impacted and are slowly
recovering.
Nov‐Dec sales fell by nearly 20‐25% post announcement of demonestisation.
Womenswear and casualwear segments continued to lead market growth.
Value fashion players grew strongly driven by aggressive expansion.
Large opportunity for ABFRL as a whole is still available in top 10 cities.
Lifestyle brand (Madura)
SSSG was flat in Q4 FY17 compared to negative 6.9% in Q4FY16.
Comprises Van Heusen, LP, Allen Solly and Peter England along with their adjacencies.
This also includes Simon Carter.
Q4FY17 revenue grew 4% YoY, while EBITDA grew 30% YoY.
For FY17, volume dip was 5%.
EBITDA margin at 15.6% YoY.
Added 22 stores and shut 32 stores.
(%) FY14 FY15 FY16 Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17
Madura
Revenues (INRmn) 32,260 37,350 39,964 8,421 11,713 10,558 10,450
EBIT (INRmn) 2,990 3,770 2,862 284 895 372 864
EBO's (Nos.) 1,541 1,735 1,877 1,856 1,841 1,895 1,878
SSG 7.0 ‐ ‐ (4.0) (10.0) (7.0) 0.2
EBITDA margins * 12.0 12.4 9.1 5.6 10.3 6.0 15.6
Pantaloons
Revenues (INRmn) 16,612 18,507 21,645 5,744 7,267 6,666 5,857
EBIT (INRmn) (756) (1,108) (1,725) (71) 175 (59) (218)
Total number of stores (ex factory outlet) (Nos.) 83 104 135 146 162 179 184
SSG (1.6) 5.5 5.9 16.0 6.2 (1.8) (5.0)
EBITDA margins 2.0 3.9 3.1 4.5 7.2 4.9 2.5
Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail
3 Edelweiss Securities Limited
The company is going to further reinvest in brand, which will help improve margin
further.
ABFRL has controlled cost, finding value proposition and going forward as organic
growth comes back profitability will improve sharply.
Ad spend needs to be seen on full year basis. The company will continue to invest in
brand and will not cut down on ad spends.
All channels grew in Q4 driven by EOSS and new season dispatches.
Total EBOs at 1,878.
Fast Fashion (Forever 21 + People)
Fast fashion includes organic brand PEOPLE and newly‐acquired Forever21. These
brands are currently in investment phase.
Opened 4 stores of Forever 21 and has taken the count to 16 stores. Total 91 PEOPLE
stores and 16 F21 stores. PEOPLE business was operational for full year FY17.
The company is targeting gross margin of >40% plus in Forever21 business.
ABFRL should close Forever 21 in FY18 to the extent of 25 stores. The company will
open stores in Tier II towns now where the opportunity is large.
Post‐acquisition in July 2016, Forever 21 operations have now stabilised and integration
has been completed.
Goal is to turn Forever21 positive by next year. PEOPLE’s business will take slightly
longer to turn positive. Levers to make it EBITDA positive will be on cost side, price mix,
rentals in new stores.
PEOPLE is an important part of overall mix. The company has started expanding
PEOPLE’s business. This brand gives international fashion to youth at low rates.
Pantaloons
Total growth was 11% YoY in Q4FY17.
LTL of negative 5% YoY owing to EOSS preponment in December. South City mall in
Kolkata was shut due to renovation (contributes 5% to overall revenue) and another
mall in Bengaluru too was under renovation. Hence, LTL was down 5% YoY.
4% price cuts taken.
Volume growth in Pantaloons for FY17 was at 7% YoY. Owned brand clocked double
digit LTL.
To clock 5% LTL going forward.
Aim is to achieve sustainable margin of 7‐9%.
Going forward EOSS will be shortened.
Most of the store openings were back‐ended and hence revenue growth is not in sync
with store expansion.
The company is moving towards full price business and hence ABFRL is targeting that.
Own brands mix improved from 56% in Q4FY16 to 59% in Q4FY17.
Retail
4 Edelweiss Securities Limited
Added 33 to the network in Q4FY17—added 79 stores during FY17 to take store count
to 209.
Currently, has 16 Woman and 9 Kids stores. Total franchisee network has increased to
28. Franchisee model is settling down and 20% of overall expansion will come through
this model.
Should be able to continue to see similar expansion.
Commenced first season of 4‐season strategy with the launch of Spring17.
Other (Inner wear + International Brands)
Van Heusen inner wear is sold through 1,300 doors. Initial response has been
encouraging.
Significant part of growth in other category came from inner wear.
Balance sheet:
Increase in debt levels is due to acquisition of Forever21. Net debt stands at INR2bn.
Going forward, net debt should dip.
Receivables jumped because of trade departments and increase in number of stores.
ABFRL’s RoCE was at 19% (ex‐goodwill).
Freshness of inventory, and improving inventory turnover—the journey going forward.
The company is targeting 120‐day inventory cycle.
GST
Sales tax is charged on MRP. Even post GST, discounts will not change under GST.
Way forward
ABFRL will continue to build on its leadership through investments in key strategic
themes:
o Brand development via investment in brand building, merchandise and refreshed
store experience.
o Aggressive retail expansion for value and fashion formats: Pantaloons and Forever
21.
o Building agile design and supply chain.
Enhancing capital productivity and focus on cost optimization.
Outlook and valuations: Primed for growth; maintain ‘BUY’
ABFRL is the No.1 player in menswear on account of Madura. The company is No. 1 in
womenswear too on account of Pantaloons. It will be key beneficiary of recovery in
discretionary spending and is better placed to gain from it than other branded apparel
players owing to its sheer scale and widespread network.
Madura’s growth and margins, which were impacted by heightened competition from e‐
commerce players, higher ad spends and lower operating leverage, have likely bottomed
out. We envisage gradual recovery riding renewed focus on new & fast‐growing segments to
Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail
5 Edelweiss Securities Limited
aid growth and improve throughput per outlet. Entry in the online segment and focus on
becoming the largest brand therein are also bound to boost long term growth. ABFRL has
completed the restructuring of Madura and aligned inventory. Hence, growth should come
back strongly in Madura starting H1FY18.
Pantaloons is a turnaround story and expected to sustain its robust run and gradual margin
improvement. We expect the company to record decent SSG led by new business model
with focus on right pricing and fashion. The company’s initiatives like increasing private
labels, enhancing inventory turns and reducing sale season period are bound to lead to
sustained margin improvement.
Anchored by robust growth potential, margin improvement, ~1900bps RoE expansion and
immense opportunity in India for branded players, we assign 20x FY19E EBITDA to arrive at
target price of INR200. We remain positive on the stock from long‐term perspective as we
believe that though disruption from online players will continue, it is largely factored in the
stock price. The risk‐reward is thus favourable. We maintain ‘BUY/SO’.
Chart 1: EBO ramp up for Madura
Chart 2: Total number of stores for Pantaloons
Source: Company, Edelweiss research
500
800
1,100
1,400
1,700
2,000
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 Q1FY17Q2FY17Q3FY17Q4FY17
(Nos.)
Total EBOs
0
50
100
150
200
250
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 Q1FY17Q2FY17Q3FY17Q4FY17
(Nos.)
Total number of stores (excluding factory outlet)
Retail
6 Edelweiss Securities Limited
Chart 3: SSG for Madura and Pantaloons
Chart 4: EBITDA margins for Madura and Pantaloons
* EBITDA margins for Q4FY17 reflects numbers for core Madura brands
Chart 5: Revenue proportion mix for Pantaloons
Source: Company, Edelweiss research
‐15.0
‐8.0
‐1.0
6.0
13.0
20.0
FY14 FY15 FY16 Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17
(%)
Madura SSG Pantaloons SSG
(3.0)
1.0
5.0
9.0
13.0
17.0
FY14 FY15 FY16 Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17
(%)
Madura's EBITDA margins * Pantaloon's EBITDA margins
Own brands59%
MFL5%
Others36%
Q4FY17
Own brands54%
MFL7%
Others39%
Q4FY16
Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail
7 Edelweiss Securities Limited
Financial snapshot (INR mn) Year to March Q4FY17 Q4FY16 % change Q3FY17 % change FY17 FY18E FY19E
Net revenues 16,149 14,356 12.5 16,990 (4.9) 66,025 74,724 86,884 Raw material costs 7,319 6,483 12.9 7,813 (6.3) 30,085 33,955 39,313
Employee expenses 1,623 1,404 15.6 1,841 (11.9) 7,058 7,774 8,737
Lease charges 2,770 2,001 38.4 2,961 (6.4) 10,873 11,358 12,569
Other expenses 3,298 3,596 (8.3) 3,498 (5.7) 13,640 15,529 17,720
Total expenditure 15,010 13,484 11.3 16,113 (6.8) 61,657 68,616 78,339
EBITDA 1,140 872 30.7 877 30.0 4,368 6,108 8,545
Depreciation 658 1,620 (59.4) 651 1.1 2,424 2,766 3,231
EBIT 482 (748) (164.4) 226 113.6 1,944 3,343 5,314
Other income 174 89 95.7 79 120.9 381 400 450
Interest 437 431 1.4 428 2.1 1,797 1,788 1,678
Profit before tax 218 (1,090) (120.0) (124) (276.0) 528 1,955 4,086
Provision for taxes ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 391 817
Reported net profit 218 (1,090) (120.0) (124) (276.0) 528 1,564 3,269
Adjusted Profit 218 (1,090) (120.0) (124) (276.0) 528 1,564 3,269
Diluted shares (mn) 769 769 769 769 769 769
Adjusted Diluted EPS 0.3 (1.4) (120.0) (0.2) (276.0) 0.7 2.0 4.3
Diluted P/E (x) 247.5 83.6 40.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 34.6 24.6 17.3
ROAE (%) 5.4 14.6 24.8
COGS 45.3 45.2 46.0 45.6 45.4 45.2
Employee cost 10.0 9.8 10.8 10.7 10.4 10.1
Lease charges 17.2 13.9 17.4 16.5 15.2 14.5
Other expenses 20.4 25.0 20.6 20.7 20.8 20.4
EBITDA 7.1 6.1 5.2 6.6 8.2 9.8
EBIT 3.0 (5.2) 1.3 2.9 4.5 6.1
PBT 1.4 (7.6) (0.7) 0.8 2.6 4.7
Adjusted net profit 1.4 (7.6) (0.7) 0.8 2.1 3.8
Retail
8 Edelweiss Securities Limited
Company Description
In May 2015, ABFRL came into being following consolidation of ABNL's branded apparel
business of Madura and Pantaloons. Post consolidation, Pantaloons was renamed Aditya
Birla Fashion and Retail (ABFRL). ABFRL brings with it learnings and businesses of 2
renowned Indian fashion icons/brands, Madura and Pantaloons. This amalgamation has
helped ABFRL emerge as India’s No. 1 fashion lifestyle entity.
Madura has a vast retail network comprising exclusive outlets, premium multi‐brand and
department stores – total presence of 1,878 stores. Four of its brands are among India's top
fashion names, with MRP sales in excess of INR10bn each. Pantaloons brand is now present
in 78 plus Indian cities/towns through 184 stores. Forever21 is a fashion retailer of
women’s, men’s and kids clothing and accessories and is known for offering the hottest,
most current fashion trends at great value to consumers. Investment Theme
Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail (ABFRL) is one of the largest branded clothing players with 5
brands clocking >INR10bn sales each. ABFRL has now ventured into fast fashion via Forever
21 and innerwear under the Van Heusen brand thereby now housing full bouquet of
segments in the apparel category. Anchored by these potent growth boosters, we estimate
ABFRL to post sales and EBITDA CAGR of 12.8% and 29.1%, respectively, over FY16‐19 and
24.8% RoE by FY19.
Key Risks
Slow GDP revival leading to lower traction in discretionary spending
While foreign brands such as Zara, Tommy Hilfiger, etc., have already established
themselves, other brands such as H&M, GAP, among others, are venturing inthe Indian
market thereby heightening competition.
Implementation of GST with anticipated tax neutral rate of 18% could lead to higher tax
outgo of 5‐7% for branded apparel players.
9 Edelweiss Securities Limited
Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail
Financial Statements
Income statement (INR mn)
Year to March FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
Net revenue 60,601 66,025 74,724 86,884
Materials costs 27,549 30,085 33,955 39,313
Gross profit 33,051 35,940 40,769 47,571
Employee costs 5,969 7,058 7,774 8,737
Rent and lease expenses 6,479 10,873 11,358 12,569
Other Expenses 16,635 13,640 15,529 17,720
EBITDA 3,968 4,368 6,108 8,545
Depreciation 3,380 2,424 2,766 3,231
EBIT 588 1,944 3,343 5,314
Add: Other income 119 381 400 450
Less: Interest Expense 1,749 1,797 1,788 1,678
Profit Before Tax (1,041) 528 1,955 4,086
Less: Provision for Tax ‐ ‐ 391 817
Reported Profit (1,041) 528 1,564 3,269
Adjusted Profit (1,041) 528 1,564 3,269
Shares o /s (mn) 769 769 769 769
Diluted shares o/s (mn) 769 769 769 769
Adjusted Diluted EPS (1.4) 0.7 2.0 4.3
Common size metrics
Year to March FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
Rent and lease expenses 10.7 16.5 15.2 14.5
Materials costs 45.5 45.6 45.4 45.2
EBITDA margins 6.5 6.6 8.2 9.8
Net Profit margins (1.7) 0.8 2.1 3.8
Growth ratios (%)
Year to March FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
Revenues 227.4 9.0 13.2 16.3
EBITDA 445.8 10.1 39.8 39.9
Adjusted Profit NM NM 196.0 109.0
EPS NM NM 196.0 109.0
Key Assumptions
Year to March FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
Macro
GDP(Y‐o‐Y %) 7.2 6.5 7.1 7.7
Inflation (Avg) 4.9 4.8 5.0 5.2
Repo rate (exit rate) 6.8 6.3 6.3 6.3
USD/INR (Avg) 65.0 67.5 67.0 67.0
Company
Revenue growth Pantaloon 17.0 12.7 18.9 18.6
Revenue growth Madura 7.0 (4.1) 7.8 11.8
SSSG growth ‐ Pantaloon (%) 5.9 2.0 6.0 10.0
SSSG growth EBOs ‐ Madura (%) ‐ (6.7) 5.0 7.0
Net Store addition ‐ Pantaloon 28.0 47.0 58.0 48.0
Net Store addition ‐ Madura 142.0 27.0 50.0 100.0
Forever 21 (revenue growth %) 23.0 25.8 32.7 42.8
Pantaloons ‐ COGS as % of sales 55.9 54.3 53.8 53.0
Madura ‐ COGS as % of sales 39.4 39.4 39.0 38.6
Pantaloons ‐ EBITDA as % of sales 3.1 2.2 3.0 4.9
Madura ‐ EBITDA as % of sales 9.1 10.4 12.3 14.1
Tax rate (%) ‐ ‐ 10.0 20.0
Capex (INR mn) 11,078 4,376 3,526 3,384
Debtor days 25 23 22 20
Inventory days 165 176 170 165
Payable days 86 88 86 84
Cash conversion cycle 104 111 107 100
Dep. (% gross block) 20.1 13.7 12.8 12.9
10 Edelweiss Securities Limited
Retail
Peer comparison valuation
Market cap EV / EBITDA (X) EV / Sales (X) ROAE (%)
Name (USD mn) FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E
Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd 2,040 24.6 17.3 2.0 1.7 14.6 24.8
Jubilant Foodworks 1,011 15.7 13.0 2.1 1.8 18.1 18.2
Shoppers Stop 445 14.2 9.5 0.7 0.6 (2.6) 13.3
Titan Company 6,832 29.1 22.8 2.9 2.4 23.5 25.3
Wonderla Holidays 344 18.0 12.6 6.6 5.6 13.8 17.5
Median ‐ 18.0 13.0 2.1 1.8 14.6 18.2
AVERAGE ‐ 20.3 15.0 2.9 2.4 13.5 19.9
Source: Edelweiss research
Profitability and efficiency ratios
Year to March FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
ROAE (%) (16.2) 5.4 14.6 24.8
ROACE (%) 3.2 8.0 12.1 17.9
Inventory Days 165 176 170 165
Debtors Days 25 23 22 20
Payable Days 86 88 86 84
Cash Conversion Cycle 104 111 107 100
Current Ratio 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3
Gross Debt/EBITDA 4.7 4.7 3.3 2.1
Gross Debt/Equity 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.2
Adjusted Debt/Equity 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.2
Interest Coverage Ratio 0.3 1.1 1.9 3.2
Operating ratios
Year to March FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
Total Asset Turnover 2.7 2.3 2.4 2.7
Fixed Asset Turnover 3.1 2.7 2.9 3.3
Equity Turnover 9.4 6.8 7.0 6.6
Valuation parameters
Year to March FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
Adj. Diluted EPS (INR) (1.4) 0.7 2.0 4.3
Y‐o‐Y growth (%) ‐ NM 196.0 109.0
Adjusted Cash EPS (INR) 3.0 3.8 5.6 8.5
Diluted P/E (x) NM 247.5 83.6 40.0
P/B (x) 13.9 13.1 11.3 8.8
EV / Sales (x) 2.5 2.3 2.0 1.7
EV / EBITDA (x) 37.6 34.6 24.6 17.3
Balance sheet (INR mn)
As on 31st March FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
Share capital 7,731 7,728 7,728 7,728
Reserves & Surplus 1,706 2,235 3,799 7,068
Shareholders' funds 9,437 9,963 11,527 14,796
Total Borrowings 18,493 20,560 20,000 17,935
Long Term Liabilities 82 82 82 82
Sources of funds 28,012 30,605 31,609 32,813
Gross Block 15,550 19,926 23,452 26,836
Net Block 4,822 6,774 7,534 7,686
Capital work in progress 254 254 254 254
Intangible Assets 18,395 18,395 18,395 18,395
Total Fixed Assets 23,471 25,423 26,182 26,335
Cash and Equivalents 203 92 268 935
Inventories 13,881 15,124 16,579 18,895
Sundry Debtors 3,909 4,318 4,501 4,884
Loans & Advances 4,464 4,481 4,499 4,517
Other Current Assets 257 259 262 264
Current Assets (ex cash) 22,511 24,182 25,841 28,560
Trade payable 14,367 15,287 16,878 19,213
Other Current Liab 3,805 3,805 3,805 3,805
Total Current Liab 18,172 19,092 20,683 23,017
Net Curr Assets‐ex cash 4,339 5,090 5,158 5,543
Uses of funds 28,012 30,605 31,609 32,813
BVPS (INR) 12.3 13.0 15.0 19.2
Free cash flow (INR mn)
Year to March FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
Reported Profit (1,041) 528 1,564 3,269
Interest (Net of Tax) 1,749 1,797 1,609 1,342
Others (94) (381) (221) (115)
Less: Changes in WC 3,482 752 68 385
Operating cash flow 511 3,616 5,650 7,343
Less: Capex 11,078 4,376 3,526 3,384
Free Cash Flow (10,566) (760) 2,124 3,959
11 Edelweiss Securities Limited
Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail
Top 10 holdings
Perc. Holding Perc. Holding
Life Insurance Corp Of India 4.11 Templeton Asset Mgmt 3.53
Reliance Capital Trustee Co Ltd 1.16 Franklin Resources 0.80
India Opportunities Growth 1.57 Tata Asset Management Ltd 1.34
Hsbc Holdings Plc 1.23 Dimensional Fund Advisors Lp 1.06
Bnp Paribas 0.68 Camden Industries Ltd 0.42
*as per last available data
Insider Trades Reporting Data Acquired / Seller B/S Qty Traded
No Data Available
*in last one year
Bulk Deals Data Acquired / Seller B/S Qty Traded Price
No Data Available
*in last one year
Additional Data
Directors Data Mr. PranabBarua Managing Director Mr. Sushil Agarwal Non‐Executive Director
Mr. ArunThiagarajan Non Executive ‐ Independent Director Mr. Bharat Patel Non Executive ‐ Independent Director
Ms. Sukanya Kripalu Non Executive ‐ Independent Director Mr. Sanjeeb Chaudhuri Non Executive ‐ Independent Director
Auditors ‐ M/s SRBC & Co. LLP
*as per last annual report
12 Edelweiss Securities Limited
Company Absolute
reco Relative
reco Relative
risk
Company Absolute
reco
Relative
reco
Relative
Risk
Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd BUY SO L Future Retail HOLD SU H
Jubilant Foodworks HOLD SU M Shoppers Stop BUY SP L
Titan Company BUY SO L Wonderla Holidays BUY SO M
RATING & INTERPRETATION
ABSOLUTE RATING
Ratings Expected absolute returns over 12 months
Buy More than 15%
Hold Between 15% and - 5%
Reduce Less than -5%
RELATIVE RETURNS RATING
Ratings Criteria
Sector Outperformer (SO) Stock return > 1.25 x Sector return
Sector Performer (SP) Stock return > 0.75 x Sector return
Stock return < 1.25 x Sector return
Sector Underperformer (SU) Stock return < 0.75 x Sector return
Sector return is market cap weighted average return for the coverage universe within the sector
RELATIVE RISK RATING
Ratings Criteria
Low (L) Bottom 1/3rd percentile in the sector
Medium (M) Middle 1/3rd percentile in the sector
High (H) Top 1/3rd percentile in the sector
Risk ratings are based on Edelweiss risk model
SECTOR RATING
Ratings Criteria
Overweight (OW) Sector return > 1.25 x Nifty return
Equalweight (EW) Sector return > 0.75 x Nifty return
Sector return < 1.25 x Nifty return
Underweight (UW) Sector return < 0.75 x Nifty return
13 Edelweiss Securities Limited
Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail
Edelweiss Securities Limited, Edelweiss House, off C.S.T. Road, Kalina, Mumbai – 400 098.
Board: (91‐22) 4009 4400, Email: research@edelweissfin.com
Aditya Narain
Head of Research
aditya.narain@edelweissfin.com
Coverage group(s) of stocks by primary analyst(s): Retail
Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd, Jubilant Foodworks, Shoppers Stop, Titan Company, Wonderla Holidays
Distribution of Ratings / Market Cap
Edelweiss Research Coverage Universe
Rating Distribution* 161 67 11 240* 1stocks under review
Market Cap (INR) 156 62 11
Date Company Title Price (INR) Recos
Recent Research
12‐May‐17 Titan Company
Sales zoom; margin miss a one off; Result Update
495 Buy
08‐May‐17 Shoppers Stop
External factors impair growth; Result Update
360 Buy
04‐May‐17 Retail Q1CY17: On road to gradual recovery; Sector Update
> 50bn Between 10bn and 50 bn < 10bn
Buy Hold Reduce Total
Rating Interpretation
Buy appreciate more than 15% over a 12‐month period
Hold appreciate up to 15% over a 12‐month period
Reduce depreciate more than 5% over a 12‐month period
Rating Expected to
One year price chart
120
135
150
165
180
195
May‐16
Jun‐16
Jun‐16
Jul‐16
Aug‐16
Aug‐16
Sep‐16
Oct‐16
Oct‐16
Nov‐16
Dec‐16
Dec‐16
Jan‐17
Feb‐17
Mar‐17
Mar‐17
Apr‐17
May‐17
(INR)
Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail
14 Edelweiss Securities Limited
Retail
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15 Edelweiss Securities Limited
Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail
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16 Edelweiss Securities Limited
Retail
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