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66
2013
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3.3
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Indicator Unit 2012(Est)
Projections2013 2014 2015
Real Sector
Real GDP Growth % 6.5 7.5 8.0 8.3
GDP Deflator % 8.5 7.0 6.0 5.0
Total Investment % of GDP 30.3 31.0 32.0 32.5
External Sector
Trade Balance % of GDP -15.1 -14.4 -13.3 -12.7
Current Account Balance % of GDP -5.5 -4.7 -3.3 -2.0
Overall Balance US$ mn 100 510 795 1,925
Fiscal Sector
Current Account Balance % of GDP -0.8 -0.1 0.8 1.4
Overall Budget Deficit % of GDP -6.2 -5.8 -5.2 -4.7
Government Debt % of GDP 81 78 75 71
Monetary Sector
Broad Money Growth (M2b) % 16.2 15.0 15.0 14.0
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47
,
.
67
5
...
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Percent
Year-on-Year Headline and Core Inflation
Headline Inflat ion (y-o-y) Core Inf lation (y-o-y)
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68
...
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Percent
Unemployment Rate - World
France
Germany
Greece
Iceland
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Portugal
Spain
United Kingdom
United States
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990
2000
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
1H2012
Percent
Unemployment Rate
7.58.0
8.3 8.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
2013 2014 2015 2016
Percent
Expected Real GDP Growth
2013-2016
,
.
,
.
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,
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69
(NOP)
2013 02
.
2013 02
.
2013
.
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70
,
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71
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72
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: , , ,
, ,
,
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73
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74
.-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012(E)
2013(P)
2014(P)
2015(P)
Percent
External Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Bangladesh
India
Maldives
Nepal
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
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,
...
.
.
75
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
(Target)
US$bn
Expectations for the Stock Market
Stock Market Capitalisation
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
(Target)
US$bn
Expectations for the Corporate Debt SecuritiesMarket
Size of Corporate Debt Securities Market
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...
.
.
.
76
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Asa%o
fGDP
Domestic Savings-Investment Gap
Investment Domestic Savings Savings-Investment Gap
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,2013
... ,
:- 3 .. 10
- 3 .. 50
-
- .. 5
.
, ,
10 .. 250 DFCC .
.
77
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2013
...
.
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78
2013 02
.
2013 02 .
2013 02 .
.
.
.
,
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...
.
79
7.0%
9.9%8.0%
6.9% 6.2% 5.8% 5.2%
0
3
5
8
10
2006-08
Average
2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013P 2014P
(%) Fiscal deficit (as a % of GDP)
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Percent
General Government Fiscal Balance to GDP Ratio inSelected Economies
2006
2012
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80
2011 2012()
*
2013 2014 2015
...(%) 78.5 81 78 75 71
() 2.4 3.2 3.5 3.7 4.0
(%) 25 24 23 22 21
(%) 44 47 42 40 38
8178 75
7168 65
0
20
40
60
80
100
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Projection of Outstanding Public Debt
(as a % of GDP)
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2013
...
.
.
.
.
81
.
.
( )
.
( ) .
.
.
,
.
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,
...
,
.
, .
82
,
.
.
,
:
,
30
27
43
12
3157
Share of Key Sectors in GDP and
Labour Force
Agriculture Industry Services
Share of
Labour Force
Share of GDP
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83
.
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,
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. .
.
-
/
.- /
-
84
201301
9
.
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25%
...
.
85
.
2014 100
.
10 .
:
.
/ .
/ .
, .
.
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.
2013
.
.
.
.
:,,
,
.
86
...
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Percent
Reservoir Water Level
2010
2011
2012
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,
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87
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88
- -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
- , -, ,
-
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2013
...
89
:
:
2012 7.50%
9.50%
8.00%
Dec-11 Dec-12
(Est)
Dec-13
(Proj)
% 19.1 16.2 15.0
% 21.5 10.2* 14.5
% 34.5 18.5 18.5
*
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2016 ..4,000 " "
.
90
..4,000
10 ...
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
t-10
t-9
t-8
t-7
t-6
t-5
t-4
t-3
t-2
t-1 t
t+1
t+2
t+3
t+4
t+5
t+6
t+7
t+8
t+9
t+10
U
S$percapita
Barbados BrazilChile Costa RicaDominica GabonGreece Iran, Islamic Rep.Lebanon MalaysiaMexico St. LuciaSt. Vincent & Grenad. Trinidad & TobagoUruguay Venezuela, RB
.
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5+1
...
91
...
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92
-
- /
-
-
-
.. 15.2
,
.. 1.9
.. 0.2
.. 5.6
.. 1.2
.. 1.0
.. 9.8
, .. 3.5
/
.. 1.0
.. 10.0
() .. 5.0
.. 1.0
:
: .. 1.8
: .. 0.5
2016
21
22
23
24
25
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011
2012(E)
2013(Proj)
2014(Proj)
2015(Proj)
2016(Proj)
%o
fGDP
US$bn
Projected Receipts from the Export of Goods and
Services
Service Receipts (US$ bn)
Merchandise Exports (US$ bn)
Total Receipts from the Export of Goods and Services (% of GDP)
100
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..100
2016...
...
93
: 2%
: 3%
.50
: 5%
: 100%
: ... 6%
: ... 0.5%
.. 70
.. 10
10
45.0
30.7
12.7
10
19.1
28.7
29.7 3
2
35.9
40.6
57.6
58
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1950 1977 2009 2016 (Proj)
Percent
Sectoral Share of GDP - Actual and Projected
Agriculture Industry Services
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,2016..100
....
94
.
.
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.
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.
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95
(.)
(.)
31.12.2011 3.0 2.0
31.12.2013 4.0 2.5
31.12.2015 5.0 3.0
(.)
(.)
2010 3.0 2.0
2012 4.0 2.5
2014 5.0 3.0
...
.
,
.
.
III
.
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21...
1.
2.
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6. 7.
96
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8.
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11. ,
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,
13. ,
14.
97
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"21"...
15.
16. 2013
17. ,
18. ,
19. ,
20. 2013
,
21.
98
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99
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100
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...
101
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, 2013
10/-
.
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2013...
102
.
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...
2013
2013 ,
17
.
103
(
)
(
)
7,000 53,700
9,900 117,300
/
/
552 21,670
32 1,280
38 640
12 600
634 24,190
2013
.
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...
:
-
.
- , , , ,
.
-
.
104
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.
2013
.
.
CPSS .
105
Expectations for the Payments
System in a US$ 100 bn
Economy
Average No. of
RTGS Transactions
per day (High
value payments)
1,500
Average No. of
Retail Paymentsper day
500,000
RTGS/SSSS
System
Availability
99.9%
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106
...
...
.
,
.
, (Trust Certificates)
.
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107
...
50
.
- 2.3
80% .
-
.
(Image Scanning) .
2014
.
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PhD
+Professional
3
PhD
6
Masters
129
Masters
+Professional
40
First Degree
325
First Degree+Professional
104
Professional
49
108
...
.
,
1,300 .
.
6,000
. 6,100
.
.. 6,800
1,100
300
65,000
23
Classification of
Professional Qualifications
Qualification Total
CA, CIMA, ACCA, CMA 133
Law 27
IBSL 20
BCS 11
CFA 2AAT 3
""
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109
.
.
Unit 1980 1990 2000 2010 2012 (Prov/Est)
GDP US$ mn 4,025 8,033 16,596 49,565 59,253
GDP Per Capita US$ 273 494 899 2,400 2,922
GDP Growth % 5.8 6.2 6.0 8.0 6.5
Unemployment Rate % 17.9 15.9 7.6 4.9 3.9
GDP Deflator % 18.1 20.0 6.7 7.3 8.5
Exports US$ mn 1,065 1,984 5,522 8,626 9,751
Imports US$ mn 2,051 2,686 7,320 13,451 18,679
Workers Remittances US$ mn 152 401 1,160 4,116 6,007
Current Account Balance % of GDP -16.4 -4.7 -6.4 -2.2 -5.5
Tourist Arrivals 000 317 298 400 654 1,003
Foreign Direct Investment US$ mn 42.9 41.6 175 516 1,000
Overall Balance US$ mn -191.9 118.7 -521.9 921.0 100.0
Gross official Reserves US$ mn 245.5 435.0 905.5 6,610.2 6,845.0
Gross official Reserves Months of Imports 1.4 1.9 1.5 5.9 4.4
Total External Debt % of GDP 41.4 72.0 54.5 43.3 43.7
End Year Exchange Rate Rs/US$ 18.00 40.24 80.06 110.95 127.16
Budget Deficit % of GDP 19.2 7.8 9.5 8.0 6.2
Government Debt % of GDP 77.2 96.6 96.9 81.9 81
Interest Rate (91-day T-Bill) % per annum 13.00 17.41 17.77 7.24 10.0
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2012
- ,
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- .
,
.
110
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2012
2011
2008 2
009 20
10
111
2007
Growth withStability
6
...
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To Deliver Prosperity to
...
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