robert warren former director, statistics division, u.s . immigration and naturalization service
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Unauthorized Immigration to the United States: Annual Estimates and Components of Change, by
State, 1990 to 2010
Robert WarrenFormer Director, Statistics Division, U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service
rwarren@indy.rr.com
John Robert WarrenMinnesota Population Center, Department of Sociology, University of Minnesota
warre046@umn.edu
Unique features of these estimates:
Number of unauthorized residents arriving each year
Number leaving the unauthorized population each year(via emigration, removal, adjustment to legal status, or death)
20-year annual time series
Available for the nation, every state, and DC
For most states, the most precise estimates ever made
1990
1995
2000
2005
2009
1,000,000
500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
Number Entering Number Exiting Series3 Net Change
Unauthorized Immigration,1990-2009
UNITED STATES
1990
1995
2000
2005
2009
300,000
150,000
0
150,000
300,000
Number Entering Number Exiting Net Change
Unauthorized Immigration,1990-2009
CALIFORNIA
1990
1995
2000
2005
2009
200,000
100,000
0
100,000
200,000
Number Entering Number Exiting Net Change
Unauthorized Immigration,1990-2009
TEXAS
1990
1995
2000
2005
2009
150,000
75,000
0
75,000
150,000
Number Entering Number Exiting Net Change
Unauthorized Immigration,1990-2009
FLORIDA
1990
1995
2000
2005
2009
150,000
75,000
0
75,000
150,000
Number Entering Number Exiting Net Change
Unauthorized Immigration,1990-2009
NEW YORK
1990
1995
2000
2005
2009
200,000
100,000
0
100,000
200,000
Number Entering Number Exiting Net Change
Unauthorized Immigration,1990-2009
MA, CT, & NY
1990
1995
2000
2005
2009
50,000
25,000
0
25,000
50,000
Number Entering Number Exiting Net Change
Unauthorized Immigration,1990-2009
ID, NM, & NV
1990
1995
2000
2005
2009
150,000
75,000
0
75,000
150,000
Number Entering Number Exiting Net Change
Unauthorized Immigration,1990-2009
AL, AK, GA, KY, NC, SC, & TN
1990
1995
2000
2005
2009
10,000
5,000
0
5,000
10,000
Number Entering Number Exiting Net Change
Unauthorized Immigration,1990-2009
LOUISIANA
1990
1995
2000
2005
2009
5,000
2,500
0
2,500
5,000
Number Entering Number Exiting Net Change
Unauthorized Immigration,1990-2009
MISSISSIPPI
1990
1995
2000
2005
2009
20,000
10,000
0
10,000
20,000
Number Entering Number Exiting Net Change
Unauthorized Immigration,1990-2009
MICHIGAN(3 Year Moving Average)
1990
1995
2000
2005
2009
3,000
1,500
0
1,500
3,000
Number Entering Number Exiting Net Change
Unauthorized Immigration,1990-2009
ME,MT,NH,ND,SD,VT,WV,WY
Conclusions The American Community Survey (ACS) is an excellent source of detailed foreign-born data for estimating unauthorized immigration Unauthorized immigration increased during the 1990s, reached a peak of 1.4 million in 2000, and then dropped rapidly; fewer than 400,000 arrived in 2009 The number leaving the unauthorized population increased steadily throughout the period, exceeding 500,000 each year from 2007 to 2009
Conclusions The rapid decline in arrivals after 2000 was the primary reason for reduced population growth, but departures from the population contributed significantly to reaching zero growth. The estimates of the unauthorized immigrant population in every state could be useful for developing U.S. immigration policy, especially for planning a legalization program. Future estimates will require improvements in the sources of data used in the estimates. Finally, an unanswerable but intriguing question: Did the increased scrutiny of air travel after 9/11 cause the number of overstays to drop sooner and faster than the number entering without inspection (EWI) across the borders?
1990
1995
2000
2005
2009
75,000
37,500
0
37,500
75,000
Number Entering Number Exiting Net Change
Unauthorized Immigration,1990-2009
NEW JERSEY
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