san andreas m w 7.9 earthquake: slip at critical lifeline crossings shakeout scenario for southern...
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San Andreas MW 7.9 Earthquake:Slip at Critical Lifeline Crossings ShakeOut scenario for southern California
Dr. Ken HudnutU.S. Geological Survey, Pasadena CA
Southern San Andreas Fault Evaluation (SoSAFE) Project Leader; Southern California Earthquake Center
San Andreas MW 7.9 Earthquake:Slip at Critical Lifeline Crossings ShakeOut scenario for southern California
Dr. Ken HudnutU.S. Geological Survey, Pasadena CA
Southern San Andreas Fault Evaluation (SoSAFE) Project Leader; Southern California Earthquake Center
U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey
San Andreas fault• Most likely source of future ‘Big Ones’ (M > 7.5)• 35 mm/yr slip rate;
• >70% of relative NoAm - Pac plate motion• 1685, 1812, 1857 great earthquakes
• Big Bend compression• SoCal heavily ‘wired’ - seismic & GPS stations• GPS measures plate motion strain accumulation
and large earthquake displacements• ‘Natural laboratory’ to study earthquakes• B4 - imaged by high-resolution airborne LiDAR
Mw7.9 ‘ShakeOut’ Scenario (Nov. 2008)
• San Andreas ‘Really Big
One’ simulated earthquake
• Slip of 4.25 meters at Cajon
Pass (I-15); ~6.50 m at I-10
• Basic description sent out
via OES statewide and
announced at SoSAFE
workshop Jan. 9, 2007
• Developments needed:
– Earthquake Early Warning• Zipper array along fault
• Lifeline crossings
– Building Damage Assessment
• DamageMap
Credit: Nitin Gupta, OpenSHA & Ned Field, USGS
ShakeOut Scenario v.2 (Jan. 12, 2007)
• Uniform application of CGS ‘A-faults’ special report (Appendix A) slip rates & sections (Wills, Weldon and Bryant, in review for WGCEP)
• Unilateral from SE to NW• 1812 event ruptured to Burro
Flats• Features:
– sharp slip steps– ramp-ups and ramp-downs
near ends
• San Andreas dips considered (only one section dips in A-faults tables)
– References available through SoSAFE e-mails
thrusting& folding
18571857 18121812 16801680
20±310±316±322±628±7
Slip Rates:
"Good science, when applied in the way that the people of Alaska have done, made the difference between an emergency and a tragedy."
Charles Groat, Director, United States Geological Survey
Each day, the Trans-Alaska oil pipeline carries one million barrels of oil, about 17% of the domestic oil supply for the United States, valued at about $25 million. If the pipeline had ruptured during the 2002 Denali earthquake, the lost revenue and cost of repair and environmental cleanup would have been incalculable.
San Andreas - need to instrument majorlifeline infrastructure crossings
Cajon Pass I-15 Fault Crossing
Lone Juniper Ranch and Frazier Park High School
Prototype GPS fault slip sensor
Spans the San Andreas fault near Gorman, California
Need robust GPS at all key lifeline crossings
Desirable to include seismic with GPS
San Andreas - need to at least instrument major lifeline infrastructure crossings
No funding has yet been identified for an operational system
Proposal - zipper array for early warning and immediate finite-fault source for San Andreas and San Jacinto fault ‘Big Ones’
IOC - 36 quadrilaterals shown @ 30 km spacing (shown)FOC - 100 quads @ 10 km spacing ($5 M init. + $1 M/yr)
•Satellite
•Telemetry
•Internet
SENSOR PACKAGE
-Accelerometer-Tiltmeter-GPS sensor
REAL-TIME DAMAGE ASSESSMENT
Erdal Safak (USGS)
hundreds of buildingsmonitored in real-timefor earthquake and otherhazards (e.g., wind,acts of terrorism)
DamageMap
ShakeOut exercise - Nov. ‘08MW 7.9 earthquake scenario
Slip at Lifelines Fault CrossingsUSGS has the earthquake mandate and expertise, as well as a new SoCal multi-hazards initiative - let’s work together
Funds for improved monitoring of the San Andreas fault system - and of buildings in LA area - are greatly needed
Kenneth W. Hudnut, Ph.D.
Geophysicist
U. S. Geological Survey
525 S. Wilson Ave.
Pasadena CA 91106
hudnut@usgs.gov
Office: (626)583-7232
Cell: (626)672-6295
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