the great energy shakeout
TRANSCRIPT
© 2016 IHS© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
The Great Energy Shakeout: Strategies in an Uncertain World
Atul AryaSenior Vice President, EnergyIHS [email protected]
Buenos Aires, July 26, 2016
IHS Argentina Energy Symposium
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
WELCOME
© 2016 IHS© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Outline
§ Context and Key Questions
§ Oil Markets
§ Global Gas Markets
§ Company Challenges and Strategies
§ Future Outlook
3
© 2016 IHS
Context and Key Questions
4
© 2016 IHS
Three “Transitions” Underway 1. "BRIC Era" (2004-2014) to "Shale Era” – Demand to Supply
§ From strong growth in emerging markets leading to strong oil market and high prices….
§ ...to over-supplied oil market and weak prices§ Breakthroughs on shale gas and shale oil§ "New Mediocre“ in world economy - today
2. China's transition § “Industrial/exporter“ to "services/consumer society"§ Structural problems§ "Policy mistakes"-- and dilemmas
3. Paris Climate Conference§ Transition to "lower carbon future“§ 185+ nations with carbon reduction plans
5
© 2016 IHS
Future expectations are shaped by beliefs …which have proven to be incorrect …
Source: IHS Energy. Numbered for ease of reference, not in order of importance or other reasons.
1. In early 1980s common belief prices would be $100 by 1990-2000.
2. High ($40s) oil would lead to recession (1980s- mid 2000s: oil price was in $20s)
3. Economic crisis come from emerging markets, not developed markets
4. US oil production would never stop declining
5. OPEC always supports price through supply management
6. Oil supply is scarce (“peak oil”) and will increasingly rely on Middle East
7. Oil demand will be strong for many years because more Chinese will be driving cars —and China’s economy will be strong for many years to come
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© 2016 IHS
Tight oil
1. What is the timing of the crude oil price recovery?
2. At what price level will growth in US crude oil production return?
3. OPEC does not exist as we knew it. What does this mean for oil supply and the oil market?
4. Is a peak in global oil demand approaching?
5. Are we approaching a “Global Gas Reset”? What is the future for LNG?
6. What will be the impact on energy mix of efforts to address climate change and local pollution?
Note: Issues numbered for ease of reference and not necessarily order of importance.
Questions for the energy markets in 2016 and beyond
7
© 2016 IHS
Energy demand continues to grow globally, with renewables and gas rising the fastest
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
IHS Base Case: Primary energy demand - by fuel, 1990-2040
Notes: Oil includes international marine/aviation bunkersCoal includes steam and coking coalRenewables include solar, wind, geothermal, and tide/wave/ocean energyOther includes biofuels, solid waste, biomass, and net trade of electricity and heat
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
Million tons
oil eq
uivalent Share in 2015
Share in 2040
32%
21%
2%
10%
5%
28%
1%
6%
10%
25%
28%
23%
5%
3%
OilGasCoal
Other
NuclearRenewablesHydro
Draft June 2016
8
© 2016 IHS
Oil Markets
9
© 2016 IHS
We are in a supply crisis not a demand crisis – where are we in re-balancing markets?
• The oil industry has undergone numerous cycles over the past decades but this one is the worst since the 1980s.
• The current price crash downturn is caused by supply growing faster than demand,
• Prior periods of new supply (Alaska, Mexico, North Sea, West Africa) were marked by long lead projects, which once on line did not respond to lower prices.
• The US supply system is short-lead and price responsive. How it responds is a major element driving the re-balance.
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016E
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
Nominal oil prices, $/barrel
BrentWTI
© 2016 IHSSource: IHS
10
© 2016 IHS
How do you upend the order of the global oil market?See the stunning growth in USA production from 2008-15
©2016 IHS
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Cumulative growth in oil production relative to 2008
Notes: Production growth is for crude oil, condensate, and natural gas liquids.Source: International Energy Agency, EIA, IHS. . © 2016 IHS
Million barrels per day
USA
Rest of the world (net)
Saudi ArabiaRussia
CanadaIraq
11
© 2016 IHS
New world of oil: On supply side, economics rule with no OPEC management
Old OPEC order New world of oil0
20
40
60
80
100
120
New world oil of oil: Economics rule with no OPEC management
Source: IHS CERA © 2013 IHS
Illustrative oil production (MMb/d)
Low cost production
OPEC production
Non-OPEC production
OPEC spare capacity High reactivity barrels
High cost production
Global Demand
12
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The $2 trillion global upstream spending cutGlobal upstream oil and gas capital expenditures (capex) forecast for 2015-19 is down $2 trillion since the oil price collapse. About half of the cut is due to service cost reductions. The other half due to activity reduction.
$4.41
$2.46
August 2014 estimates February 2016 estimates
- 44%
Total Global Upstream Oil and Gas Capex 2015 – 2019(USD Trillion)
Data Source: IHS Global Upstream Spending Report
13
© 2016 IHS
US crude oil production started to decline at the end of 2015 and is expected to bottom out end 2016
Jan-13 Sep-13 May-14 Jan-15 Sep-15 May-16 Jan-17 Sep-176
6.5
7
7.5
8
8.5
9
9.5
10Monthly US crude oil production
Source: IHS, EIA © 2016 IHS
Million ba
rrels pe
r day
• US production bottoms out at just below 8.5 MMb/d.
• Rig activity reaches a low point soon and increases in late 2016 and 2017.
• Steady, though not aggressive, drilled but uncompleted (DUC) liquidation throughout 2016 and 2017.
• Further gains in well productivity in key plays (e.g. Wolfcamp, Bone Spring, SCOOP) and in efficiencies.
• No near-term signs of sweet spot exhaustion.
9.7
8.5
9.2
14
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Non-OPEC crude oil supply growth turns negative as lack of investment takes hold
United States
Brazil
Canada
Indonesia
Colom
bia
India
Argentina
Kazakhstan
Norway
United
Kingdom
Oman
Russia
Azerbaijan
China
Mexico
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
2015 2016 2017
Non-OPEC crude oil production annual change, 2015–17
Notes: Data are for 15 largest non-OPEC crude producing countries in 2013.Source: IHS
Million ba
rrels pe
r day
© 2016 IHS
15
© 2016 IHS
Gulf-5 responsible for most of OPEC crude production growth in 2016-17
Algeria
Angola
Ecuador
Gabon
Indonesia
Iran
Iraq
Kuwait
Libya
Nigeria
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
UAE
Venezuela
Total OPEC
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2015 2016 2017
Annual change in crude oil production for OPEC countries, 2015–17
Notes: Estimates for Saudi Arabia and Kuwait include 50% of Neutral Zone production.Source: IHS
Million ba
rrels pe
r day
© 2016 IHS
16
© 2016 IHS
World oil demand outlook trimmed, largely on “Brexit” vote impact—but demand still to grow 1+ MMb/d in 2016 and 2017
Changes in oil (liquids) demand by region (volume change from previous year in million barrels per day)
© 2016 IHS
Notes: Mexico is included in Latin America. Data in table may not add up due to rounding.Source: IHS
Global oil demand growth (MMb/d)
2015 2016 2017OECD 0.5 0.1 0.0Non-OECD 1.2 1.1 1.1Total world 1.7 1.2 1.1
North America
2015 2016 2017(0.50)
(0.30)
(0.10)
0.10
0.30
0.50
Europe
2015 2016 2017(0.50)
(0.30)
(0.10)
0.10
0.30
0.50
China
2015 2016 2017(0.50)(0.40)(0.30)(0.20)(0.10)0.000.100.200.300.400.50
Latin America
2015 2016 2017(0.50)
(0.30)
(0.10)
0.10
0.30
0.50
Africa
2015 2016 2017(0.50)(0.40)(0.30)(0.20)(0.10)0.000.100.200.300.400.50
Middle East
2015 2016 2017(0.50)(0.40)(0.30)(0.20)(0.10)0.000.100.200.300.400.50
Eurasia
2015 2016 2017(0.50)(0.40)(0.30)(0.20)(0.10)0.000.100.200.300.400.50
India
2015 2016 2017(0.50)(0.40)(0.30)(0.20)(0.10)0.000.100.200.300.400.50
Non-OECD Asia ex. China & India
2015 2016 2017(0.50)(0.40)(0.30)(0.20)(0.10)0.000.100.200.300.400.50
OECD Asia Pacific
2015 2016 2017(0.50)
(0.30)
(0.10)
0.10
0.30
0.50
17
© 2016 IHS
Global oil demand to slightly exceed production in 2H 2016, for the first time in more than two years
1Q 2013
2Q 2013
3Q 2013
4Q 2013
1Q 2014
2Q 2014
3Q 2014
4Q 2014
1Q 2015
2Q 2015
3Q 2015
4Q 2015
1Q 2016
2Q 2016
3Q 2016
4Q 2016
1Q 2017
2Q 2017
3Q 2017
4Q 2017
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
Demand Supply
World oil (liquids) demand and supply by quarter
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
Million ba
rrels pe
r day
Surplus
Note: For more details on our global balance, please see the data file, “IHS Energy Global Crude Oil Markets Outlook for Oil Market Fundamentals,” posted with this report.
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© 2016 IHS
Charting the Path to Market Rebalancing The road from consolidation to mid-cycle prices goes through Riyadh
April to July 2015: $55/bbl - The spring rally
August to November 2015: $45/bbl - Testing US resilience
December 2015 to mid-April 2016:$35/bbl - Cash Suffocation
April 2016 to June 2016: $45/bbl - Consolidation
3Q16 to 2Q17: $50/bbl - Recovery
2H17: $57-$63/bbl - Mid-cycle price?
19
© 2016 IHS
Oil price quarterly low was in Q1 2016, but volatility will continue
• Price annual averages• 2014: Brent $99/WTI $93• 2015: Brent $52/WTI $49• 2016: Brent $45/WTI $44• 2017: Brent $57/WTI $56
• Assumptions • US production declines to 8.5 MMb/d by end 2016
• Iran adds 600,000 b/d in 2016
• Upside risks• Global crude outages, higher production declines in some countries
• Downside risks• Politics allow oil to come back into the market (Libya, Neutral Zone)
2012:1Q
2012:2Q
2012:3Q
2012:4Q
2013:1Q
2013:2Q
2013:3Q
2013:4Q
2014:1Q
2014:2Q
2014:3Q
2014:4Q
2015:1Q
2015:2Q
2015:3Q
2015:4Q
2016:1Q
2016:2Q
2016:3Q
2016:4Q
2017:1Q
2017:2Q
2017:3Q
2017:4Q
$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90$100$110$120
Quarterly average Brent and WTI crude price outlook (nominal $/barrel)
Source: IHS, Argus Media Limited; 6 July 2016 © 2016 IHS
Brent
WTI
20
© 2016 IHS
Snapshot of global oil fundamentals and price outlook
© 2016 IHS
Notes: Gulf-5 includes: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Iraq, and Iran. Liquids supply includes crude oil, condensate, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). Liquids demand includes all refined products, blended biofuels, synthetic fuels, as well as liquefied petroleum gases (LPGs) and ethane. A positive number for implied change in global liquids inventories indicates an implied stock build. A negative number indicates an implied stock draw. Figures are rounded. MMb/d = Million barrels per day.*World economic growth projections are preliminary.Source: IHS, Argus Media Limited
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017FUNDAMENTALS World economic growth* 2.5% 2.8% 2.6% 2.4% 2.7% (from previous year) World oil (liquids) demand growth 1.4 0.7 1.7 1.2 1.1 (from previous year in MMb/d) World oil (liquids) supply growth 0.9 2.2 2.8 (0.2) 1.2 (from previous year in MMb/d) US crude oil production growth 1.0 1.3 0.7 (0.6) (0.2) (annual average in MMb/d)
Gulf-5 crude oil production growth 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.0 0.6
(annual average in MMb/d)Implied change in global liquids inventories (1.1) 0.5 1.5 0.1 0.2
(annual average in MMb/d)PRICES Dated Brent $ 109 $ 99 $ 52 $ 44 $ 57 (annual average per barrel) WTI - Cushing $ 98 $ 93 $ 49 $ 44 $ 56 (annual average per barrel)
21
© 2016 IHS
Global Gas Markets
22
© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Global gas snapshot: July 2016
23
Key regional trends shaping the LNG market
© 2016 IHS
China slowdown; strong coal competition
‘Residual market’ for LNG
Ongoing cost reductions
LNG imports for power
Growing LNG dependence Supply surge;
CBM uncertainty
Nuclear policy uncertainty; solar uptick
East Africa remains on
starting blocks
Growing gas surplus capacity
Alaskan and Canadian LNG
remain on starting blocks
Gas Long
Gas Short
© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
US natural gas resource estimates have risen sharply
US natural gas resources vs break-even $/Mcf
Source: IHS
© 2016 IHS
• IHS raised US natural gas resource estimates from 900 Tcf in 2010 to 1400 Tcf in 2016 at a breakeven price of $4.00/Mcf
• 800 Tcf has a breakeven price of $3.00/Mcf
• Well data from the Marcellus and Utica is showing much larger and more prolific production than anticipated
24
© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
The abundant low-cost resource base will keep Henry Hub prices below $4 through 2025
25
© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
A Bear Market for LNG
• Supply capacity increasing by 50% in the next 5 years.
• Demand is much weaker than anticipated in core importing markets.
• Prices could fall very low for an extended period of time. Variable cost of LNG will influence how low prices can go and how much US production might be shut-in.
• Europe will serve as the key LNG market balancer.
• Key implications in the near term:
• Weak outlook for new Final Investment Decisions (FIDs)
• Aggregators key to market balancing
• Heightened optimization of LNG trade
• Liquefaction project FIDs in the longer term will be impacted by these changing market dynamics.
26
© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Global LNG supply is growing faster than demand
280 285
311
340 361
391
413
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
US AustraliaOther Paciifc Other Atlantic Middle EastSoutheast Asia
Global LNG supply (capacity)
Note: MMtpa = Million metrics tons per annumSource: IHS © 2016 IHS
MMtpa
US
Australia
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Africa
243 249 269
301
324
339 350
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
JKT Europe North America
Other Asia Latin America MENA
Global LNG demand
MMtpa
© 2016 IHSNote: JKT = Japan, Korea, Taiwan; MENA = Middle East and North AfricaSource: IHS
Japan, Korea, Taiwan
Other Asia
Europe
27
© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
How will the global LNG market balance?
• Most non-US producers will not shut-in production since variable costs are low.
• Europe will play a key role in managing excess LNG as the oversupply intensifies since other major importers are facing structural and economic demand constraints.
• US LNG will help balance the oversupply particularly towards the end of the decade. European gas prices will limit how much US LNG will be needed on the market.
• After multiple years of low prices, new demand markets are expected to materialize.
• With LNG and gas prices lower for a long period, we expect a hiatus in new, large-scale liquefaction FIDs. Some smaller-scale projects might be able to find a way to FID, but these are likely one-off instances.
• After the market returns to a more balanced state post-2022, liquefaction project developers will face a new norm in buyer behavior.
• Despite their supply-long position in the coming years, LNG aggregators will still play a critical role in underpinning new supply for when market shifts back into balance.
28
© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Company Challenges and Strategies
29
© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
The E&P spend decline should bottom out in 2016, with a small rise expected in 2017
• Global E&P capital spend is falling from $719 billion in 2014 to ~$385 billion in 2016
• Costs fell 20-25% with exploration activity falling by more than half.
• Spending in 2017 is relatively flat as companies focus on balance sheet repair
• These actions are creating a major portfolio “hole”2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
Onshore ConventionalOnshore UnconventionalOffshore (including pipelines)
Global E&P onshore and offshore capexNominal $ billions
Source: IHS Energy © 2016 IHS
USD
Billion
$719
$385
30
© 2016 IHS
The volume of unsanctioned deepwater projects at risk is material to companies and countries
2010 2015 2020 20250
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
>$70 $60 - $70 $50 - $60
$40 - $50 <=$40 Producing
Deepwater crude production outlook by breakeven range
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
Thou
sand
barrels per day
<=$40
$40 - $50
$50 - $60
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
>$70 $60 - $70 $50 - $60 $40 - $50 <=$40
Unsanctioned deepwater crude production outlook by breakeven range
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
Thou
sand
barrels per day
<=$40
$40 - $50
$50 - $60
Producing
31
© 2016 IHS
Moving Beyond 2016
• Historically high debt leverage for IOCs, NOCs, and Independents will impact• E&P spending and portfolio decisions• Access to capital markets• Mergers & Acquisitions• Share price performance
• Balance sheet repair will feature strongly in 2017 for many companies
• Some regions continue strong, but many are flat
• Beyond 2017 activity will be rising
32
© 2016 IHS
IOC and NOC debt is skyrocketing and cash flow is negative for the Majors
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2005
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015e
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
IOC and NOC debt has been rising sharply
Source: IHS Herold © 2016
IHS
Net deb
t, US$
billion
2003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
2016 est.
2017 est.
-$60-$50
-$40-$30-$20-$10
$0$10$20$30
$40$50
US$
billion
Majors will significantly outspend operating free cash flow through 2017
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
Cash flow from operations less capital expenditures and dividends; does not account for asset sales, share buybacks or principal payments on debt.
BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil,Shell, Total
Majors
Euro IOCs
Latin NOCs
33
© 2016 IHS
2005200
6200
7200
8200
9201
0201
1201
2201
3201
4201
5201
6E$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
$55
Exploration spend of the 21 largest IOC exploration companies plus Petrobras
© 2016 IHS
$ billion
s
Source: IHS, company guidance
$55
$46
$33
$15-$18
Global exploration spend is slashed again in 2016 and Majors foresee flat overall upstream spend
IOCs
Petrobras
$73$81
$106$94
$155$139$141
$162$152
$126
$95$92
2006200
7200
8200
9201
0201
1201
2201
3201
4201
5E201
6E201
7E$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$ billion
s
Global IOC upstream capital spending & production decline; proven reserve additions plummet
Source: IHS, company guidance © 2016 IHS
Preliminary 2015 Global IOC reserve replacement metrics: 1-yearMajors’ upstream capital spending outlook
34
© 2016 IHS
Unsanctioned projects are critical to raise Non-OPEC conventional supply
• Projects already sanctioned will add new non-OPEC supply through 2019 – and provide service sector work to EPC firms
• Delays in new project investment decisions will hit some sectors as late as 2018/19.
• E&P and service sector companies are seeking to provide new ways to make unsanctioned projects cost competitive
2016201
7201
8201
9202
0202
1202
2202
3202
4202
5-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
Non-OPEC conventional oil supply outlook
Source: IHS
Thou
sand
barrels/day
© 2016 IHS
Base decline
SanctionedUnsanctioned
Net
35
© 2016 IHS
Upstream M&A market: a buyers’ market with no buyers
§ 2015 deal count fell by almost 50%, lowest since 2001§ Total global deal value ex-Shell/BG, plunges 70%§ Corporate deal count 20-year low. Rejected unsolicited bids >$60 billion§ Asset deal value falls to lowest level since 2004§ US still accounts for 50% of total transaction value, ex-Shell/BG
36
© 2016 IHS
No shortage of opportunities: More than $260 billion of energy assets on the market, though best yet to come
© 2016 IHSSource: IHS
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© 2016 IHS
What Next?
© 2016 IHS
Who wins and loses in energy’s future?
©2016 IHS
1. Many companies struggling to survive
2. Short-cycle oil—is it here to stay?
3. Long-lead time projects—such as large offshore projects—face severe challenges.
4. Onshore projects with short drilling to production times have the upper hand—at least for now
5. Global gas market has strong growth prospects, but not necessarily high upstream margins.
6. Consumers win—greater choice and competition among energy suppliers for market share
Points are numbered for ease of reference and not necessarily in order of importance.
39
© 2016 IHS
Will the future be different from the past?
§ Fossil fuels have held a remarkably steady share of around 80% of the global energy mix for decades
§ The high share of fossil fuels is due to their abundance, energy density, infrastructure, and competitive costs
§ Oil’s future will be shaped by transport and the future of gas by power generation
§ There will be more choices because of energy from wind, solar, and batteries – technology, price and policy will shape choices
40
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