scottish public opinion monitor - independence referendum september 2014

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Scottish Public Opinion Monitor September 2014

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Should Scotland be an independent country?

Voting intention amongst those certain to vote

(excluding undecided)

Base: All certain to vote (excluding undecided) (1230). Data collected among 1377 Scottish adults 16+, September 15th – 16th 2014

Yes 49%

No 51%

All certain to vote (excluding undecided)

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Should Scotland be an independent country?

Referendum voting intention excluding undecided

– recent trend

Base: All certain to vote excluding undecided (1230) . Data collected among 1377 Scottish adults 16+, September 15th – 16th 2014

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14

No

Yes

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Should Scotland be an independent country?

Referendum voting intention

Base: All (1377); all certain to vote (1313). Data collected among 1377 Scottish adults 16+, September 15th – 16th 2014

Yes 42%

No 45%

Undecided 13%

All voters

Yes 43%

No 45%

Undecided 12%

Certain to vote

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Should Scotland be an independent country?

Referendum voting intention – recent trend

Base: All certain to vote (1313). Data collected among 1377 Scottish adults 16+, September 15th – 16th 2014

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14

No

Yes

Undecided

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Voting intention by gender

Base: All certain to vote (1313). Data collected among 1377 Scottish adults 16+, September 15th – 16th 2014

50%

40%

Yes

No

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Ja

n-1

2

Ma

r-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Ju

l-1

2

Se

p-1

2

No

v-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Ma

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Men Women

% voting Yes

36%

50%

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47%

38%

13%

Voting intention by age group

Base: All certain to vote (1313). Data collected among 1377 Scottish adults 16+, September 15th – 16th 2014

Yes

No

54%

43%

47%

39%

13%

34%

55%

9%

16-24 25-34

35-54 55+ 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Ja

n-1

2

Ma

r-1

2

May-1

2

Ju

l-1

2

Se

p-1

2

No

v-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Ma

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

16-24* 25-34 35-54 55+

*Jan 2012 – May 2013 this was 18-24 year olds

% voting Yes

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Voting intention by levels of deprivation

Base: All certain to vote (1313). Data collected among 1377 Scottish adults 16+, September 15th – 16th 2014

59%

36%

56%

Most deprived areas Least deprived

areas

Yes

No

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Ja

n-1

2

Ma

r-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Ju

l-1

2

Se

p-1

2

No

v-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Ma

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Mar-

14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Most deprived areas Least deprived areas

% voting Yes

30%

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Which way are you most inclined to vote?

Which way are undecided voters leaning?

Base: All undecided (163). Data collected among 1377 Scottish adults 16+, September 15th – 16th 2014

Yes 27%

No 24%

Undecided 49%

All undecided voters

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Regardless of how you intend to vote in the referendum, what do you think the result will be? Do you think…?

Outcome

Base: All (1377). Data collected among 1377 Scottish adults 16+, September 15th – 16th 2014

Yes will win 31%

No will win 44%

Don't know 25%

Outcome

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How likely would you be to vote in the referendum on Thursday, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote and 1 that you would be absolutely certain NOT to vote

Turnout is likely to be high

Base: All. Data collected among 1377 Scottish adults 16+, September 15th – 16th 2014

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14

55+

All

16-24

% Absolutely certain to vote

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As far as you know, are you registered to vote in the Scottish independence referendum?

Voter registration

Base: All (1397). Data collected among 1377 Scottish adults 16+,

September 15th – 16th 2014

Yes 98%

No 1%

Don't know 1%

Registered to vote?

Registered before 88%

First time registered

12%

Registered before?

Base: All (1377). Data collected among 1377 Scottish adults

16+, September 15th – 16th 2014

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Technical details

• This presents the topline results from the Scottish Public

Opinion Monitor Wave 21

• Results are based on a survey of 1,377 respondents (adults

aged 16+ who are registered to vote, 1,397 including those

not registered to vote) conducted by telephone

• Fieldwork dates: 15th September – 16th September 2014

• Data are weighted by: age, sex, and working status using

census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private

sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly

Public Sector Employment series data

• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to

computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of

“don’t know” categories

• Results are based on all respondents (1,377) unless

otherwise stated

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