smsm2014

The Internet as a Factor of Participation in Protests: Cross Country Analysis

Kirkizh Eleonora, Olessia KoltsovaHigher School of Economics (SPb)

Structure• Theory• Hypothesis• Data and Method• Results

• Conclusions• Further research

TheoryTheory of Information Society

The direct link between politics, media and the crisis of political legitimacy in a global perspective.

The development of interactive, horizontal networks of communication has induced the rise of a new form of communication, mass self-communication, over the Internet and wireless communication networks. (Castells, 2007)

Discussion

Protesters in Northern African and Middle East countries have been using social networks for coordination and information exchange. (Breuer, 2012)

Using Facebook or Twitter, citizens created groups where they posted news, calls, announcements and other items concerning protests. (Gaffney, 2009, Allagui, 2011)

Protests in Chile, Iran, Belgium, Spain and the Arab countries. (Lotan, 2011, González-Bailón, 2013)

Hypothesis

H1: Probability of protest participation of citizens is more if

they use the Internet as a information resource.

(Howard, 2010)

H2: Probability of protest participation is higher if a citizen

(unemployed, middle income, has political interest, well

educated) uses the Internet as a information resource.

(Gaffney, 2009, Wolfsfeld, 2012, Korotaev, 2013)

Data and MethodWorld Value Survey, wave 6 (2011-2013)

Countries: 40

Individuals: over 42,000

Variables:

• Dependent: protest participation

• Independent: employment status, age, confidence: the government,

income, information recourse: Internet, friends, post materialist index

(4-item), age, education, religiosity, political view.

• Group level variable: country

Method: multilevel logistic regression

Coefficient St. Error

internet (yes) 0.421*** (0.036)

friends (yes) 0.314*** (0.044)

education high low

–0.273***–0.620***

(0.046)(0.048)

politics (yes) 0.739*** (0.032)

post materialist mixed post

0.275*** 0.694***

(0.036)(0.050)

religious (yes) –0.187*** (0.040)

age midyoung

–0.301***–0.440***

(0.036)(0.048)

employment (yes) –0.104* (0.057)

views mixed right

–0.564***–0.561***

(0.036)(0.038)

Observations 44,146

Pseudo R-squared 0.140

Regression resultsModel 1

Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01

Model 1 Model 1* Internet

friends (yes) 0.314***(0.044)

–0.076(0.088)

education (high) –0.273***(0.046)

–0.205*(0.094)

politics (yes) 0.739***(0.032)

0.114(0.061)

post materialist (mixed) 0.275***(0.036)

0.224(0.087)

religious (yes) –0.187***(0.040)

0.056(0.075)

age (mid) –0.301***(0.036)

0.054(0.058)

employment (yes) –0.104*(0.057)

–0.317**(0.111)

views (mixed) –0.564***(0.036)

–0.571***(0.036)

Observations 44,146

Pseudo R-squared 0.140

Regression resultsModel 1Model 1* with interactive effects

Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01

Conclusions Individual level• The average regression coefficient for the Internet use across 40 countries 

equals 0.42. The probability of whether a citizen, reading news on the Internet, joins a protest is 52% higher than if he/she does not. (H1)

• Different interactive effects. Mostly the Internet is not a significant factor. (H2)

Group level• The effect of the Internet is positive in most countries. Only in three states – 

Japan, Kazakhstan and Peru – the effect is negative.• In other countries usage of the Internet turns to be a significant positive 

predictor. However, coefficients of the effects among them vary vastly: from 0.1 to 0.8. 

• Five groups of the countries with the lowest effect of the Internet to the highest effect. The highest coefficients (0.7–0.8) were observed in the following countries: Chile, Colombia, Ghana, Tunisia, Libya, Yemen, and Pakistan. (Kalathil, 2003)

Further research

• Analysis with group level variables (the Internet penetration, GDP, Human Rights Risk Index, Corruption Rate etc.)

Thank you for your attention

Questions?