sospeter muhongo international council for … muhongo international council for science (icsu) ......

1

STI Institutional Arrangements in Africa - Science in Service of Society

Sospeter MuhongoInternational Council for Science (ICSU)

Regional Office for Africas.muhongo@icsu-africa.org

www.icsu-africa.org

MONASH UNIVERSITYSouth Africa, 30 October 2007

2

Economic Status

About 40% of Sub-Saharan Africa (ca. 250 million people) lives in absolute poverty

GNI: ca. US dollars 400 billion (Hong Kong: 176.2)GNI per capita: ca. US dollars 490 (Hong Kong: 25,860)

Highest GNI per capita (2004): GNI: (1) Seychelles: US$ 7,350 (1) South Africa (2) Mauritius: 4,100 (2) Nigeria(3) Botswana: 3,530(4) Gabon: 3,400(5) South Africa: 2,920

3

$2.20 / day $0.90 / day

4

Poverty: George Bernard Shaw (1856-1950), Irish dramatist

“The greatest of evils and the worst of crimes is poverty”

The African Women:└► produce 70% of the continent’s food└► work: ca. 65% of the continent’s working hours└►earn only 10% of the continent’s wealth└►own less than 1% of the continent’s property

5

”Of the approximately 816 million people in Africa in 2001, it is estimated that:

1 in 4 have a radio (205m),

1 in 13 have a TV (62m)

1 in 35 have a mobile phone (24m)

1 in 40 have a fixed line (20m)

1 in 130 have a PC (5.9m)

1 in 60 use the Internet (5m)

1 in 400 have pay TV (2m)”ITU, UNESCO, Jensen

STATUS AND TRENDS OF ICTs in AFRICA

6

SRTI: Conceptual change

Linear Model Research Technology

Circular Model

With Gap

Research

Technology

Without Gap

Application stimulates ResearchNew Technologies allow New DiscoveriesPrivate Sector is a Key player in R & D

7

International Published Output (percentage)

Region and country 1988 1990 1995 2000 2003 percent change

Other Asia (excl China, S Korea, Singp, Taiw.) 2.17 2.08 1.96 1.94 2.26 + 4.12%

Near East/North Africa 1.69 1.62 1.66 1.76 1.93 + 13.83%

Central/South America 1.21 1.35 1.64 2.33 2.71 + 124.4%

Sub-Saharan Africa 0.97 0.86 0.72 0.63 0.60 - 0.382%

Source: Science and Engineering Indicators, 2006: derived from Thompson ISI, Social Science Index and Science Indexes

8

The 360-degree curve (STI)

Science └└►► Technology

└└►► Innovation └└►► Wealth Creation

└└►► Science

9

2000: Researchers per million inhabitants

78

309143

5543109

4006

5206

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

Africa

S Africa

India

China

Germany

USA

Japan

Researchers

10

2000: Shares of World GERD (global-gross expenditure on R&D)

0.6

0.3

1.6

6.7

7.1

35.6

13.2

0 10 20 30 40

Africa

S Africa

India

China

Germany

USA

Japan

% age

11

Institutional Arrangements in Africa

African countries: 1% GDP for STI (public and private sectors)

STI institutions └└►► Private – Public Business Sectors

Budgets: └└►►training, research and innovation

12

Exporters of Commercial Services: 2003

Top 10 developing country exporters of commercial services: └└►this accounts to 10% of World’s

Commercial Service Exports3. China: US$ 48 billion4. India: 25 billion5. Turkey: 20 billion6. Russia Fed. 18 billion7. Thailand 17 billion8. Malaysia 15 billion9. Mexico 13 billion10. Poland 12 billion11. Egypt 12 billion12. Brazil 10 billion

13

STI & Wealth Creation

The leading STI fields in the 21st Century:● Life Science● Health Science● Biotechnology & Nanotechnology● Space Science● ICT● Agricultural Technologies & Industries● Science of Climate Change● S&T of Energy Resources and Coal

14

15

16

Participation in Education: 2002/03Net Enrollment Ration: % of relevant age group

Primary Secondary South Africa 89 66Botswana 81 54 Lesotho 86 22Swaziland 75 32Mozambique 55 12

Egypt 90 81Jamaica 95 75Mongolia 79 77Hong Kong 98 72

17

18

Freshwater: 2002

Access to improved water source% of urban % of rural

population population

South Africa 98 73Botswana 100 90Namibia 98 72Mozambique 76 24Lesotho 88 74Swaziland 87 42Angola 70 40

19

Groundwater: Over 95% of the Earth’s useable fresh water is stored as groundwater

Transborder groundwater resources

20

Health and Human Well-being in Africa

Population: ca. 880 millionAnnual Population Growth: 2-4%

Life Expectance at Birth: 45.8 years

Mortality rate: 103.1 (infants per 1000 live births)

Prevalence of HIV/AIDS:% age of population aged 15-49: ca 8.5%

21

22

23

24

Dependence of Africa on Biological Production Systems

c.70% of Africa’s Workforce is employed in the AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

c.40% of GDP of African countries flows from AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS

c.80% of African population depends on TRADITIONAL MEDICINE

BIODIVERSTY FEEDING AFRICA:

Fishing, Hunting, Wild fruits as only source of livelihood to many African communities

PHARMACEUTICAL PRODUCTS (Development & Production):

Rely heavily on biological systems (i.e., flora and fauna)

25

Milestones (SRTC): Science, Research, Technology, Innovation

Latest Developments in SRTI:

Brazil: the New Development Policy-└►►Accelerated Economic Growth

♦ Brazil produces > 10, 000 PhDs per annum♦ Brazil has 1,700 Research Groups dedicated to Biotechnology♦ Private & Public Investments in the Biotechnology Industry to

reach US$ 4.8 Billion over the next 10 years.♦ Goals: to produce (a) cheaper medicines and vaccines, (b)

industrial enzymes, (c) more nutritive foods, etc♦ 4 Priority Areas, (a) Human Health, (b) Arable & Cattle

Farming, (c) Industry and (d) Environment

26

Science, Research, Technology & Innovation

China’s Fast-Track Science Plan:

2007: S&T accounts for 40% of the country’s economy(Japan, UK and USA – up to 80% of their economies)

2050: S&T should account for 75% of the country’s economic growth

27

SRTI in China

China’s Fast-Track Science Plan:5-year Key Technology Research Development Program♦ Efficient Energy & Resources Utilization♦ Agricultural Technologies♦ Technologies for the Information Technology Sector and for the

Manufacturing Equipment♦ Population, Health and Public Security

Investment: US$ 2.5 Billion in 5 years (Private & Public Partnership)Sources of Funding: (a) Central Government – US$ 925 Million, (b) Local

Government (c) Business & Research Institutions

28

STRI in South Korea

New Miracles:National Ambitions – ♦ 10th Position in the World in Scientific Competitiveness♦ 5th Position in the World in Technological Capability by the end of 2007

How is this possible?♦ R&D Research Budget growing at ca. 9.7% annually for the last 6 years

└►► reaching ca. 3% of GDP in 2006♦ R&D Investment to grow in Double-Digit range Every Year for the next 15

Years

29

South Korea

Where did the success come from?

♦ Mass of Highly Educated People♦ Networked Society – Information Infrastructure

♦ Innovation System (ubiquitous)♦ Heavy Investments in R&D by the

Government and the Business Sector

30

South Korea – 2007 projects

♦ Over US$ 1.0 Trillion (Euro 820 Million) to bolster the country’s Biotech and Nanotech capabilities└►► Biotechnology Research-

(a) Brain Research (b) Natural Ageing process – slowing down the process

└►► Nanotechnology Research- (a) Nano-mechatronics (b) Development of Tera-Level Nano Materials

♦ Korean Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research (KSTAR) Nuclear Fusion Reactor

♦ Participation in the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER)

♦ Aerospace – 6 satellites are being assembled in labs this year and the expected launch of South Korean’s very own satellite using an indigenous rocklet will take place in late 2008.

31

2000: World GDP, Population, R&D

WorldGERD

World GDP

WorldResearchers

WorldPopulation

72%

28%

80%58%21%Developed Countries

20%42%79%Developing Countries

Global-Gross Expenditure on R&D (GERD): 2000- US$ 746 billion

1997- US$ 547 billion

World Researchers: 1997 – Developing Countries: 28%

1985 - “ 12%

32

SCIENCE PLAN I: SUSTAINABLE ENERGY

Access to electricity – Africa: Energy for Sustainable Development

└►►►affordable, accessible and reliable energy service

Population without access to electricity:

Sub-Saharan Africa: ca. 77%North Africa & Middle East: ca. 9%China: ca. 1.5%India: ca. 55% (India’s consumption>> Africa)Latin America: ca. 13%

33

PHANEROZOIC OF AFRICA:CAMBRIAN to PRESENT

Earth formation 0ca. 4 500 million years (4.5 Ga)

Life Explosion

AFRICA: STABLE CONTINENT OVER THE LAST 500 Ma

►► ACCUMULATION OF A VARIETY OF MINERAL RESOURCES, INCLUDING FOSSIL FUEL ENERGY

PRECAMBRIAN

545 Ma

PHANEROZOIC

34

Science Plan I:Sustainable Energy

ENERGY RESOURCES IN AFRICAClassical sources:♦ Oil – about 10% of the world’s reserves (Sudan, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Zambia)♦ Natural Gas - about 8% of world’s reserves, to last >50 years (Egypt: 100 yrs)♦ Coal – about 6% of world’s reserves, to last >300 years (Tanzania: >500 million tons)

♦ Nuclear- Uranium reserves to last >100 years♦ Hydro-power: about 12% of the world’s total

African Drainage Systems (Rivers), e.g. River Congo

Other major sources:♦ Bio-fuels, e.g. Mauritius: 20% from sugar cane (bagasse for electricity)♦ Solar♦ Wind♦ Geothermal: Kenya – about 25% of the total electricity consumed♦ Ocean – (a) waves/tides, and (b) hydrocarbons on the sea-bed♦ Hydrogen

35

Weathering of Precambrian cratons, sediment accumulation in continental basins, Rift volcanic activity,…

COAL, OIL, URANIUM in basins,

PHOSPHATE, GYPSUM, BAUXITE

DIAMOND CHIMNEYS;

PLACER DEPOSITS OF gold, diamond, titanium sands,..)

Precambrian basement

Atlas range

Cape fold belt

36

Sustainable Energy for Africa: Proposed Projects

Project SE1 (takes off by January 2008): Development of Energy Scenarios & Models for Africa

Project SE2 (takes off by January 2008): Biofuels for Africa

● Provision of substantial increase in reliable and sustainable energy access for rural and urban areas

● Increase access to high quality, reliable and affordable energy in a sustainable manner

● Strengthening and retention of Human and Institutional capacities in the Energy Sector

37

The Gondwana

38

Financial Resources● African Governments● bi- and multi-lateral funding resources● AU/NEPAD and ECA initiatives● African Economic Communities (e.g. SADC, ECOWAS, EAC)● African Development Bank (ADB)● European Union (EU) Energy Initiative● EU/Africa Collaborative Programmes, e.g. EU-FP7● Private Sector● Financial Resources from Joint Projects, examples:

(a) ICSU Unions, e.g. IUGG/GIA, INQUA, IUGS/IGCP(b) UNESCO (c) GECAFS(d) TWAS/NASAC/AAS(e) UN-proclaimed Years, e.g. IPY, IYPE

39

CURRENT STATUS

HEALTH SERVICES ??

FOOD SECURITY NUTRITION SECURITY

DISEASE BURDEN

40

TARGETACCESS TO HEALTH SERVICES

DRUG DEV. FROM TM

BALANCED NUTRITION

FOOD SECURITY

HAPPY FAMILIES

41

II –HEALTH & HUMAN WELL-BEING

FOOD SECURITY: feeding the hungry world

Population 1999 6 billion people 2050 9 billion people

90% of population will be in the South

Poverty:1.3 billion afflicted by poverty

Malnutrition840 million people suffer from malnutrition

42

How can so many genes make rice?

Proposed number of rice genes:

approximately

50,000

43

INDIA: Agriculture

2 Centers of Excellence will be created (US$ 22 Million):■ North India at Pantnagar– Govender Ballab Pant University of Agriculture & Technology

■ South India at Coimbatore– Tamil Nadu Agriculture University

44

II–HEALTH & HUMAN WELL BEING

Nanotechnology: Application in Health Service

Potential for treating disease like MALARIA, TB HIV/AIDS, etc

Advantages:● Cheaper medicines and vaccines● Minimize the dose of drugs administered● Reduce dose frequency● Minimize side effects● Reduce the cost of treatment

45

Science Plan II:Selected Research Themes

◘ Understanding the scientific basis of diseases in Africa

◘ Health promotion and disease prevention◘ Health systems analysis and development◘ Traditional/Complementary and alternative

medicine◘ Promotion of human well-being:

└└►► clean and safe water food/nutrition habitable shelter mineral resources

46

III-NATURAL & HUMAN-INDUCED HAZARDS AND DISASTERS

Hydro-Meteorological Hazards & Disasters:● Floods● Mass movements, e.g. erosion, landslides, siltation

● Heat Waves● Wildfires● Tropical cyclones, hurricanes● Tornados, hailstorms, dust storms

47

Rainfall in Africa

Flooding in BurundiFeb. 2007

Picture from BBC

Flooding in MozambiqueFeb. 2007

Picture from BBC

48

FLOODS:Mozambique in 2000

♦ Affected 4 million people with estimated 700 deaths ♦ Losses amounting to ca. US$ 500 million♦ GDP growth rate decreased from 10% to 2%

Primary cause: (a) abnormal rainfall due to tropical cyclones causing

excessive flows from 9-12 rivers with catchments in other countries, especially the Limpopo River

Contributory causes:(a) Land degradation(b) Deforestation of the Limpopo River catchment area.

(c) Increased population density along river banks.

49

Hazards & Disasters -cont-

Geological Hazards & Disasters:● Earthquakes● Volcanoes● Tsunamis● Collapse of constructions

Biological Hazards & Disasters:● Diseases● Pest Infestation● Biological Weapons

Technological Hazards & Disasters:● Air pollution (e.g., green-house gases)● Water pollution (e.g., heavy metals-Pb, Cd, As)

50

The threat and major source for tsunamis

© GFZ, Potsdam

© GFZ, Potsdam

51

Africa’s Rotation PoleThe Cameroon hotspot : 200 Ma – RecentLake Nyos Disaster – 4,000 people died in 1984

52

HAZARDS & DISASTERS: CURRENT STATUS

53

Science Plan III:Selected Research Themes● Creation and maintenance of a multidisciplinary hazard database

● Vulnerability science

● Science and policy linkage

● Integrated modelling of multiple disasters

● Geo-hazards (UN-proclaimed IYPE)

└└►►Implementation Strategy: the same approach as for Sustainable Energy:

54

IV-Global Change:complex interaction between the core-mesosphere-asthenosphere-lithosphere- --biosphere-atmosphere

55

Fundable Projects under preparation

Project I:Hydro-meteorological Hazards and Disasters in Africa

Project II:Geo-hazards in Africa

(within the framework of the UN-proclaimed IYPE)

56

Science Plan IV:Global Change in Africa

Proposed Research Areas:♦ Land Degradation, Biodiversity Loss and

Human Well-being♦ Rainfall ♦ Resilience of Food Systems♦ Water Resources and their Governance♦ Atmospheric Pollution♦ Africa’s Oceanographic Uniqueness

57

The Climate Change threats: Global Warming

♦ Since 1860 Global Temperature Rise is: 0.6+0.20C♦ Last 2 decades were the hottest in this century♦ 20th Century:

Average atmospheric temperature rise of 0.7 ºC in Africa

♦ Since 1950: Sea surface temperature rise: + 1ºC in the Indian ocean

♦ Projections – Rainfall –

• Increased frequency of floods• Increased frequency and duration of droughts

58

The Climate Change threats: Global Warming

GHGs changing due to Human Activities:└►since pre-Industrial Era (~ 1750)

• CO2 by 30%• CH4 by over 100%• N2O by 15%

concentrations are higher now than any time during the last 420,000 yrs

59

Great KarooPermo-Carboniferous glaciation of Gondwana and the largest mass extinction at the end of Permian (ca. 250 Ma ago) - (85% extinction of all organisms)

New Slides (December 2006)

61

Lemur Chameleon of Madagascar: A microcontinent (~ 50 Ma to Recent) evolving independently through time

62

Zn Cu Co

CrPt

FeMn

Sn W

Au gems

AuAu

2Ga3Ga

proto-crust

PaleoproterozoicArchean

Evolution of the African crust over the last 3.5 Ga Evolution of the African crust over the last 3.5 Ga

Mesoprot. Neoprot. Phaner.1GaEarth

formation

Zn Udiamond

Stabilisation / breakdown / extension(basin related & anorogenic mineral deposits:e.g., oil/gas, diamond, Fe, Cr, PGM)

Dominant crustal accretion / convergence (active margin-type & orogenic mineral deposits:e.g., Au, Sn, Wo, precious stones)

63

Germanium

Titanium

Gallium

Rhenium

LCD

ExhaustPlatinum

New Jets

Palladium

Tantalum

0 - 2 years

from 2 to 5 years

Post-crisis

CrisisForecasting

Cell Phone 3D

Indium

Turbine

Mobile internet

LED

Cobalt

Selenium

Forecasting High-Tech Metals crisis

Time

Price

GEOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AFRICA

“Hype cycle” & killer applications

64

New Africa & New DevelopmentRhetoric ──► ActionReports ──► Usable Products

65

AFRICAN scientists, policy- and decision-makers:

Mwalimu Nyerere: “We must run while they are walking”“It can be done play your part”“Political Independence means work”

Science in Service of SocietyThank you for your attention