spatial patterns of poverty in vietnam and laos

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Chiang Mai; October 31 November 2 2007

Michael Epprecht

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iss N Chiang Mai; October 31 - November 2, 2007

‘Measuring’ Poverty

Expenditure approachExpenditure approachtotal household per capita consumption, including the value of home productionincluding the value of home production

Poverty RatePoverty Rate(share of population below a specific ‘poverty line’)poverty line )

Spatial aspects of human welfare

Poverty map of Vi tVietnam:

» Based on 1998 VLSS» Sample of 6000

Poverty rate(% of populationbelow the

t li )» Sample of 6000 households

poverty line)

Representative at regional level onlyregional level only

Small Area Estimation

Combine information from two data sources to generate expenditure data for the whole population:generate expenditure data for the whole population:Sample survey data, and Census data

» Use household survey data to predict household per capita expenditure using household characteristics

» Apply coefficients to same household characteristics in census

sample survey data set census data set» Aggregate from household to “small area” such as district

or commune

sample survey data set- v1- v2

β1β2

census data set- v’1- v’2

β1β2

^... y

- vnβn

...

- v’nβn

y

Model applied to Vietnam

Household size and composition

Housing» House typep

» Household size» Proportion of elderly » Proportion of children

» House type» Living area» Type of roof

f fl» Proportion of children» Proportion of females

Education» Education of head of household

» Type of floor» Type of water source» Type of toilet

» Education of head of household» Education of spouse

Characteristics of head of h h ld

» Electricity

Ownership of assetsRadiohousehold

» Ethnicity» Occupation

» Radio» Television

Location» Urban/Rural» Elevation and coordinates

Poverty in Vietnam d Land Laos

Where are the poor?

PERCENTAGE of population below ABSOLUTE number of people below poverty Population densityp ppoverty line(poverty incidence)

p p p yline(“poverty density”)

Poverty rates & poverty density

Although gupland areas have higher poverty ratepoverty rate, most of the poor live in deltas

d l tand along coastPoverty assistance ss s ceshould not be limited to poorest areaspoorest areas

Poverty in Laos

The geography of poverty and inequality

Poverty rates highest in“remote rural highlands”g

Poverty rates

ethnicethnicmajorities minorities

Poverty rates

Spatial variation i l ti hiin relationships:

Influence ofannual rainfall

on district-level poverty incidence.

Conclusions - Methodology

Poverty mapping methody pp g» Statistical method produces

spatially highly disaggregated estimates of p y g y gg gpoverty that are generally considered to be more g yreliable and consistent than those from the administrative reporting system

Conclusions - Methodology

Poverty mapping method (cont.)y pp g ( )» But, the method:

does not produce reliable information below pthe commune/ village level

combination with local participatory approachesp p y pp

is very data intensive, i.e. cannot easily be updated frequentlyupdated frequently

limitations of the method in the face of mass migration (maps quickly outdated?)g o ( ps qu c y ou d ed?)

AcknowledgementsVietnam:

Minot, N.; Baulch, B. and Epprecht, M. (2006)Minot, N.; Baulch, B. and Epprecht, M. (2006) Poverty and inequality in Vietnam — Spatial Patterns and geographic determinants. IFPRI research report #148 International Food Policyresearch report #148, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC.http://www.ifpri.org/PUBS/abstract/rr148.asp p fp g p

Laos:DRAFT RESULTS of a project onDRAFT RESULTS of a project on‘Poverty mapping in Lao PDR’

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