spreading democracies or dim-ocracies in the middle east? dr. bessma momani university of western...

Spreading democracies or dim-ocracies in the Middle East?

Dr. Bessma MomaniUniversity of Western Ontariobmomani@uwo.ca

Image: www.caglecartoons.com

Lecture Outline:

• What, where is the Middle East?

• What encourages democratization?

• Will there be democracy or dim-ocracy in the ME?

• Why in the ME, the US is not deemed to be an ‘honest broker’?

Middle East

• Geographic area• Not cultural,

ethnic, linguistic, or religious

• Not all Arab countries

The Arab World…(based on Arab League Membership)

Middle East Political LandscapeCountry Indicators for Foreign Policy

Country

Index 2000

Democracy Civil,

Political Rights

Press Freedom

Corruption

Jordan 7 6 6 4

Egypt 8 8 7 7

Saudi Arabia

9 9 9 n/a

Kuwait 8 6 5 n/a

Turkey 3 6 6 5

Iraq 9 9 9 n/a

Algeria 7 8 8 n/a

Morocco 8 5 6 5

Columbia 3 6 6 7Key: 1=Good 9=Poor; Source: http:// www.carleton.ca/cifp/

Authoritarian Middle Eastern Regimes

• There are more authoritarian regimes in the ME than anywhere else

• Repression, exclusion of political participation

• ‘insular’/resist globaliz’n• Large youth population• →Hopelessness, extremism

What encourages democratization?

April 2002: 5,000 demonstrate outside Al-Azhar mosque; Source: Al-Ahram

Internal Factors that Encourage Democratization…

• National unity– ‘togetherness’

• Political leadership-- personalities

• Historical legacy-- colonialism

• Political culture– people view power

• Ethnic harmony-- cooperation

• Strong political parties-- brokerage

• Political institutions—legisl; judiciary

• Socioeconomic development– middle class

• Relationship among classes–bourgeoisie

• National security– no external threat

Map of Saudi Arabia

• International organizations– UN declaration of human rights

– International law; ICC

• State pressure– EU; foreign aid

• Economic Factors– MNCs, entrepreneurs

– Globalization

• Waves of democracy– Huntington: “snowballing”

External Factors thatEncourage Democratization…

George W. Bush on November 6th 2003 at the National Endowment for Democracy

“As long as the Middle East remains a place where freedom does not flourish, it will remain a place of stagnation, resentment, and violence, ready for export…. The establishment of a free Iraq at the heart of the Middle East will be a watershed event in the global democratic revolution.”

What is the Future of the Political Landscape in the Middle East?

Domino Democratization in the Middle East

Unleashing political darkness: dim-ocracy

US administrationprofesses

Skeptics

Democracy…a domino effect?

• Latin America• Eastern Europe • Asia • Domino-effect can be a trigger,

if internal conditions are favorable…

• Middle East/ Arab world next?• See: Democratic Mirage in the

Middle East www.ceip.org

Middle Easterners want democracy…

• Strong appetite for democracy

• Ex. of struggles for democracy:

• Early 1980s- Turkey shifted to democracy; military watchdog

• 1989, Jordan- Parliamentary elections– 2002 US-FTA

• Elections in Bahrain, Morocco– US Free trade candidates

• Iran, the youth, reformers– vs. Ayatollahs, religious establishment

http://people-press.org/

Push factors for political liberalization…

of satellite, open media

– Expose corruption

– ‘neighborhood effect’

• Ex. Al-Jazeera, Al-Arabiya

– Challenges state-owned media

– But, In Iraq, both banned for unfavorable coverage of US occupation

• Spread of Internet

– Organizing movements

– Criticize government

– Outlet for banned media

A classified Feb. 26, 2003, State Department report by the Bureau of Intelligence and Research entitled:

Iraq, the Middle East and Change: No Dominoes

"even if some version of democracy took root ... anti-American sentiment is so pervasive that Iraqi elections in the short term could lead to the rise of Islamic-controlled governments hostile to the United States."

Reported by Greg Miller at www.latimes.org

Or…Dim-ocracy…

• Igniting the ‘Arab streets’– Populist, unorganized, anti-

government demonstrations

• → Civil war in each state?• ↑ hatred and terror on US

interests– Backlash

• Rise of Islamists: critical of their governments and the US

For the US: Islamic Governments mean→ dim-ocracy?

• Popular Islamist movements /parties– Conservative, anti-liberal

values, some anti-US

• Would the US want to see Islamist-controlled governments– ? Eliminate democracy

• Extreme scenario is that these parties create Islamic states– Ex. 1979 Iran

Algeria: Déjà vu….

• 1992: Islamist party (FIS) won elections– Military backed-regime cancelled

elections

• Algeria civil war: – 130,000 killed in the past 10 years – State of emergency, human rights

violations

• taught other Islamists to go underground and to not trust region's secular elites– Suppressed in Algeria, Tunisia,

Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia

• Clinton administration: authoritarian regimes better than Islamist regimes

Case in point: Egypt

• US foreign aid to Egypt: over US $2 B

• b/c US fear ‘Algerian scenario’

• Preferable to keep the status quo

• With US approval, the Egyptian government represses and prevents democratic movements…

How the Egyptian government prevents/represses democratization….

• Media censorship– No mention of any opposition

party allowed on state TV in 1995

• Restricting fundraising of political parties

• Banning religious parties

• All unions are gov’t controlled

• State employees: intellectuals, journalists

• Outlaws demonstrations, indefinite detentions (50,000 political prisoners)

Problem: US not deemed to be an ‘honest broker’ in the ME

Four general reasons…1. Negative view of US

foreign policy2. Iraqi occupation/

democratization going poorly

3. The oil connection4. Bush’s post 9-11 evil vs.

good rhetoric

1) Perception of US Foreign Policy

Image and table: http://people-press.org/

2) Iraqi occupation going poorly

• Insecurity/ Anarchy

• Civilian deaths

• Political round-up– de-Baathification

• Unemployment (<50%)

• Electrical Blackouts– Also water & fuel

2) Iraqi democracy …really?• US plans for ‘Iraqi sovereignty’

• CPA appoint 18 organizing committees that will then select delegates

• These delegate then select the representatives of the legislative.

• The representatives have an internal vote to elect ministers and an executive.

• BUT…Shia (60%)- Al-Sistani– want direct elections immediately

3) Oil…the motive of the US invasion of Iraq?

• WMD?• None of the hijackers

from Iraq; No connection to 9-11

• Iraq not a hotbed for religious extremism

• ►Get Iraqi oil to break OPEC strength– Hijackers from Saudi

Arabia

3) The OIL connection

• Iraqi facilities need to be rehabilitated

• US emphasizing US contracts

• Bush admin. too connected to oil– Ex. VP Cheney’s– KBR awarded

contracts.

4) US reference to moral/ religious rhetoric post 9-11…

The ME hears the Bush administration’s…

• Axis of evil• Good vs. evil• Anti-Islam comments

– by General Boykin

– Repeated in Arab media

Final thoughts…

• It is unclear whether external involvement such as the American occupation of Iraq will be enough to spark democracy in the ME

• Internal factors do not appear conducive, especially in Iraq

• The US not deemed to be an honest broker in the ME, and there may be increased backlash as a result

• Finally, if true democracy spread throughout the ME and if Islamist parties predictably came to power…what would this mean to US interests in the region.

Video…

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