state of the climate - notes

State of the Climate - NOTES• This is a short presentation to establish the basics of what is happening to

the climate before discussing what we can do about it (And now the GOOD news).

• This ppt does not try to establish the science of climate change. See ClimateScienceMar2010.ppt or other AIP ppts for that.

• This presentation was prepared for the Australian Institute of Physics Education Committee (Vic) by KB and is for the use of science teachers in talking with their students and with the general public.

• The source of most images and graphs is acknowledged in the notes pages. Glacier and snow photographs Keith Burrows.

““State of the Climate”State of the Climate”

What are the scientists What are the scientists telling us?telling us?

Many scientific organisations have produced reports in an attempt to

get people to listen

“State of the Climate”

• Temperatures going up (air, land, sea)• Humidity increasing• Ocean heat content increasing• Sea level rising• Snow cover decreasing• Glaciers melting• Sea-ice melting

Title

• text

Title

• text

Title

• text

0.6oC

40 yrs

= 0.015oC per yr

0.2oC

• Lord Christopher Monckton of Brenchley’s version of temperature trends

Title• Let’s put Monckton’s red line on the Let’s put Monckton’s red line on the

NASA graphNASA graph

Title

• BUT: BUT: 1000 people 1000 people gave gave Monckton a Monckton a standing standing ovation in the ovation in the Sofitel last Sofitel last February!February!

998998XX

Title

• Prof Ian Plimer Prof Ian Plimer introduced introduced MoncktonMonckton(The one (The one ‘scientist’ a ‘scientist’ a certain politician certain politician listens to!)listens to!)

Monckton spreads his message with the help of radio talk-back

Title• From “State of the Climate in 2009”

Title

• text

Title

• text

So this is where we So this is where we should look to see if the should look to see if the Earth is warming!Earth is warming!

Title

• text

• text

This is how the deniers This is how the deniers deal with this data!deal with this data!

4 years !4 years !

• text

Let’s compress Ashby’s Let’s compress Ashby’s graph to the same scalegraph to the same scale

• But there is a little problem – missing heat!

• Current measurements don’t account for all the net heat absorbed by the Earth

• (Radiation in minus radiation out)

National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

• But there is a little problem – missing heat!

Ocean heat content is the most reliable indicator of global

warming• ...but also the least obvious!• However, it is the underlying cause of ...• rising sea levels• higher air temperatures• increased ‘extreme events’• changed rainfall patterns• melting sea ice

Rising sea levels

Rising sea levels

Pakistan August 2010

1600 dead

20 million washed from their homes

One fifth of the country under water

Loss of property catastrophic

Economy shattered

Pakistan August 2010

The Indus valleyAugust 2009 and August 2010

Pakistan August 2010

• United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs stated that the scale of destruction from Pakistan's monsoon flooding in July and August of 2010 surpassed the devastation from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the 2005 northern Pakistan earthquake, and the 2010 Haiti earthquake combined.

China August 2010China August 2010

In Russia, firefighters and soldiers were battling to stop wildfires from engulfing key nuclear sites ... Morgues in Moscow are overflowing as officials estimate 5000 have died in the worst heatwave in 130 years.

Russia August 2010Russia August 2010

Sub-Saharan AfricaSub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan AfricaSub-Saharan Africa

• Lagos — More than ten million people across West Africa are facing severe hunger and malnutrition because of drought, poor harvests and rising food prices

• Worsening conditions in the Sahel region of West Africa have seen malnutrition rates soar as families struggle to find enough food to eat

• Niger - the world's least developed country - more than seven million people, almost half the population, facing food insecurity; 3.3 million, approaching a quarter of the population, are severely food insecure.

• Another two million people in Chad, more than 600,000 in Mali and more than 300,000 in Mauritania are at risk.

Sub-Saharan AfricaSub-Saharan Africa

• “There's no doubt that clearly the climate change is a major contributing factor,” said Dr Ghassem Asrar, director of the World Climate Research Program and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).

• Scientists are usually more comfortable with trends and prognostications than with cause and effect; most would never ascribe a single weather event to climate change. Which makes Asrar's declarations and similar ones from other experts all the more remarkable.

The Age 21 August 2010

Is it climate change?Is it climate change?

New weather patternsNew weather patterns

• From “State of the Climate in 2009”

!!

• The Wilkins Ice Shelf

Unfortunately it’s not just the ArcticUnfortunately it’s not just the Arctic

The collapse The collapse of the Wilkins of the Wilkins Ice shelf Ice shelf Feb 28 to Feb 28 to March 8March 820082008

(Approx 50 (Approx 50 km long)km long)

Some wise quote