status report of tt/ rcof

Status report of TT/ RCOFDmitry Kiktev

TT/ RCOF LeaderHydrometeorological Research Centre of Russia

Vladimir KryjovHydrometeorological Research Centre of Russia

Outline

3.1. Improved operational long-range forecasts and long-term projections

3.2. Improved delivery of climate information and prediction products for climate adaptation and risk management

3.1. Improved operational long-range forecasts and long-term projections

3.1.1.1. Collect and examine information on RCOF activity in various parts of the world.Review RCOF products, practices and organization models/mechanisms. Develop a Concept paper on possible development of RCOFs in RA-VI and its liaison with RCC network

3.1.1. 2. Discuss needs and propose possible steps for RCOF organization in the areas beyond SE Europe

- North Eurasia Climate Centre has held NEACOFs twice a year since Spring 2011.

- SW Europe + NW Africa RCOF is under construction

3.1.1.3. Include downscaled LRF products in SEECOF practice. Provide objective verification of SEECOF products. Make SEECOF outcomes available for interested NMHSs via authorised access to web/ftp-server of SEECOF

Implementation of downscaled LRF products at NEACC-NEACOF with posting on the NEACC web-site is scheduled for 2014

Correlations between the observed wintertime (DJF) AO index - and wintertime (DJF) SLP predictions by GPC-Moscow (a),

- and observed wintertime (DJF) SLP (b).

1979 – 2003 (25 yrs.)

a.

b.

The basis for downscaling

Distinct negative phase of the AO

GPC predictions of DJF’12-13 mean SLP (from WMO LC LRF-MME)

The basis for downscaling

3.2. Improved delivery of climate information and prediction products for climate adaptation and risk management

3.2.4. Examine and search for ways of expansion of the RCOF scope in RA-VI - Add forum functionality to the LRF-Node of the RA-VI RCC Network and explore the possibility of inclusion of climate change section in RCOFs.

In 2012, NEACC disseminated a questionary among NE NMHSs.The needs are discussed at the NEARCOFs.

In summary the needs cover:- Data (normals) consistency;- Climate monitoring and projections;- Training

Consistency of the normals!

3.2.5. Analyse requirements and feedback on effectiveness, gaps and improvement of RCOF activity in RA-VI, to address what still has to be done.

It is analysed during RCOFs

In summary improvements must comprise:- Regional applications based on downscaling;- Economic efficiency of the predictions;- Industrial sector oriented applications

THANK YOU