stocky

STOCKY – play and predict the future

Domas Monkusdomas@nous.lt

Nous

www.nous.lt

Who are the winners of Eurovision?

● Polls● Expert opinions● Statistical models

● „You mean who I'd like to win?“● Insincere disclosure● Incomplete information

Prediction markets

● Stocks are tied to events● Stock payouts depend on the outcomes● Stock prices correlate with the probabilities

Prediction markets

The benefit? Accuracy!

Iowa Electronic Markets: 2008 US President election

Democrats

Republicans

Prediction markets

Why?● „Wisdom of the crowds“ (J.Surowiecki)● Incentives for information discovery and truthful revelation of beliefs● Efficient market hypothesis

Stocky

Demokratai

Respublikonai

Why facebook?

A channel for:● User acquisition● User activation● User retention● User referrals

High trading volumes and thus a large user base is necessary for forecasting accuracy.

What's next?

● More markets● Geo and social market recommendations● Paid markets● Growth

Public beta!

http://apps.facebook.com/stocky_beta/

Thank you