stories to watch 2014 - europe

1

FEATURING

Manish Bapna Executive Vice President, WRI

Image: Flickr/NA.dir

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

ECONOMIC RECESSION IS OVER G

DP

GR

OW

TH

Source: IMF, 2013

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

EMERGING ECONOMIES SLOWING BUT ROBUST G

DP

GR

OW

TH

BRAZIL

Source: IMF, 2013

$15 trillion

$30tr

$50tr

$100tr

1970

1990

2010

Real GDP

(2005 dollars)

2030

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service

GLOBAL GDP – GETTING BACK ON TRACK

THE RISE OF THE GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS

1990

1 Billion

2010

2 Billion

2030

5 Billion

Source: Reuters, OECD 2010

1.2 billion people living on less than

$1.25 per day

100 million children undernourished or

underweight

123 million youth lacking basic literacy skills

1 billion lack basic sanitation facilities

(UNDP 2013)

UNFINISHED BUSINESS

Overweight Hungry

900 Million

1.2 Billion

EXPONENTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS

THE BIG QUESTION

Can we have economic growth

and tackle poverty and

sustainability at the same time?

1 1 SHIFTING TO A

SUSTAINABLE FOOD

FUTURE?

Image: istockphoto Image: istockphoto

SHIFTING TO A

SUSTAINABLE

FOOD FUTURE?

Source: WRI analysis based on Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards

2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.

The world needs to close the food gap

69% INCREASE IN FOOD CALORIES TO FEED 9.6 BILLION BY 2050

Source: World Bank. 2012. World Development Indicators. Accessible at:

<http://databank.worldbank.org/Data/Home.aspx> (accessed December 13, 2012).

The world needs agriculture to support

economic development

(Photo: Oxfam International /Flickr)

24% Greenhouse gas emissions

37% of Earth’s landmass

70% Water withdrawals

The world needs to reduce agriculture’s

impact on the environment

Source: WRI analysis based on Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards

2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.

32% Increased rate of annual yield improvement needed between now and 2050

Most studies project net adverse impacts on crop yields

due to climate change (3° C warmer world)

Source: World Bank. 2010. World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change.

Washington, DC: World Bank.

Menu for a sustainable food future (preliminary)

Consumption Reduce food loss and waste

Shift to healthier diets

Achieve replacement level fertility

Reduce biofuel demand for food crops

Production Sustainably increase crop yields

Boost yields through attentive crop breeding

Improve soil and water management

Expand onto low-carbon degraded lands

Sustainably increase “livestock” productivity

Increase productivity of pasture and grazing lands

Reduce then stabilize wild fish catch

Increase productivity of aquaculture

Production

methods

Improve livestock feeding efficiency

Increase the efficiency of fertilizer use

Manage rice paddies to reduce emissions

Source: WRI analysis based on FAO. 2011. Global food losses and food waste—extent, causes and

prevention. Rome: FAO.

Note: Numbers may not sum to 100 due to rounding.

Reduce food loss and waste along the value chain (Percent of kcal lost or wasted)

WHAT TO WATCH

1. Will global warming start to seriously affect yields?

2. Will the food loss and waste movement build momentum?

1 2 WATER AT RISK?

Image: istockphoto

SHIFTING TO A

SUSTAINABLE

FOOD FUTURE?

WATER AT

RISK?

WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM: WATER IS A

GLOBAL RISK

Water

crises

THREATS TO NATIONAL SECURITY

Aqueduct maps used in

2011 National Intelligence

Estimate on Water

Security requested by

Secretary of State Hillary

Clinton

WATER SCARCITY IS NEWS

Source: United Nations

1.8 B

2014

2018

2022

People in absolute

water scarcity

Tens of millions will

be displaced in arid,

semi-arid regions

2025

1.2 B

WATER SCARCITY WILL INTENSIFY

IN TIMES OF SCARCITY: POOR PEOPLE GET

SQUEEZED

AQUEDUCT WATER RISK ATLAS

- 15,000 catchments

- 12 indicators of water risk

- All open data publicly available

- Current estimates and future projections

WORLD’S LEADING WATER INFORMATION PLATFORM

39% of irrigated cropland in this region is located in areas of water stress concern

Baseline Water Stress in areas with Irrigated Agriculture

39% of irrigated cropland in this region is located in areas of water stress concern

WATER STRESS ON IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE NOW

Change in Water Stress by 2025 in areas with Irrigated Agriculture(IPCC Scenario A1B)

WATER STRESS ON IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE 2025

Baseline Water Stress and Power Plants

WATER STRESS AND POWER PLANT CAPACITY NOW

would see water stress grow 2 to 8 times worse by 2025

Change in Water Stress by 2025 and Power Plants (IPCC Scenario A1B)

WATER STRESS AND POWER PLANT CAPACITY 2025

WHAT TO WATCH

1. Will water shortages begin to seriously affect agriculture output and power production?

2. Will governments and companies take aggressive action to reduce water risks?

1 3 THE YEAR OF

CITIES: HOW WILL

THEY GROW?

Image: istockphoto

SHIFTING TO A

SUSTAINABLE

FOOD FUTURE?

WATER AT

RISK?

THE YEAR OF

CITIES: HOW

WILL THEY

GROW?

Image: Harvey Barrison; Source: UN-Habitat

CITIES ARE BOOMING

274,000 people added to cities each day for next 30 years

AND URBAN GROWTH IS SPEEDING UP

Time required to reach 2 million:

Rome, Italy 2000 years

Vienna, Austria 400 years

Vancouver, B.C. 115 years

Shenzhen, China 20 years

Image: istockphoto; Source: McKinsey and Company

CITIES ARE ECONOMIC DRIVERS

65% global GDP growth in major cities

URBAN POOR LACK ACCESS TO BASIC SERVICES

Image: Flickr/PauloFehlauer; Sources: UN-Habitat, UNFCCC, WHO

BUT, CITIES BRING CHALLENGES

• 75% of GHG emissions

come from cities

• 1.3 million people die

prematurely due to urban

air pollution

$1 trillion Projected cost to coastal

cities without adaptation

BUT, CITIES BRING CHALLENGES

Image: Flickr/RodrigoSolon

THIS?

OR THIS?

Image: Flikr/Andreas

CITIES: PROBLEM OR SOLUTION?

Per capita emissions of CO2 equivalent (2011)

Source: Cai et al. 2013, Hoornweg et al. 2011, Olivier et al. 2012

WHAT TO WATCH

1. Which way will cities in Asia grow -- up or out?

Image: Flickr/DylanPassmore

1 4 RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY?

Image: Flickr/USAID Kenya

Image: WRI; Source: Hansen et al.2013, WRI

FORESTS UNDER PRESSURE

50 soccer fields lost each minute

BUT, THERE’S HOPE…

Source: Global Partnership on Forest Landscape Restoration

2bn hectares with opportunities for forest landscape restoration

2bn hectare ready for forest landscape restoration

SOUTH KOREA: RESTORATION INTO FORESTS

1960

2000

Image: WRI

NIGER: RESTORATION INTO AGROFORESTRY

Pre-1990s Today

Image: WRI

THE BONN CHALLENGE

Image: Flickr/CIFOR; Source: WRI

150m hectares under restoration by 2020

Image: Flickr/CIFOR; ource: IUCN

150m RESTORED HECTARES

• $84 billion in economic benefits per year

• 1 gigatons of CO2e stored per year

• Biodiversity, cultural and other benefits

BONN CHALLENGE: BENEFITS

USA

(15m ha)

BRAZIL - PACTO

(1m ha)

COSTA RICA

(1m ha)

EL SALVADOR

(1m ha)

RWANDA

(2m ha)

A GROWING MOVEMENT

Source: WRI

WHAT TO WATCH

1. Will more countries make commitments when they meet in June 2014?

2. Will a new global movement for restoration emerge?

Image:

1 5 SUSTAINABLE PALM

OIL: A NEW ERA?

Image: istockphoto Image: istockphoto

SHIFTING TO A

SUSTAINABLE

FOOD FUTURE?

WATER AT

RISK?

THE YEAR OF

CITIES: HOW

WILL THEY

GROW?

SUSTAINABLE

PALM OIL: A

NEW ERA?

RESTORATION:

A 2 BILLION

HECTARE

OPPORTUNITY?

Image: Flickr/carsten_tb; Source: FAO

PALM OIL: A MAJOR CROP

370% increase in palm oil production in 20 years

PALM OIL: A MAJOR CROP

Source: National Geographic 2013

50% of grocery store products contain palm oil

Image: WRI

SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATION

Image: WRI

SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATION

Image: WRI

SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATION

Image: WRI

SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATION

A NEW APPROACH

A NEW APPROACH

“There is a strong and rapidly

growing demand for traceable,

deforestation-free palm oil, and we

intend to meet it as a core element

of our growth strategy.”

–Kuok Khoon Hong, CEO of Wilmar

Source: Wilmar Press Release 2013

SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

TESSO NILO NATIONAL PARK

SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

Image: Jufri/ Greenpeace

WHAT TO WATCH

1. Will better information expedite the shift to sustainable palm oil?

2. Will other industries follow?

Image: istockphoto

Image: istockphoto

6 CHINA: CLEARING

THE AIR?

Image: istockphoto

SHIFTING TO A

SUSTAINABLE

FOOD FUTURE?

WATER AT

RISK?

THE YEAR OF

CITIES: HOW

WILL THEY

GROW?

SUSTAINABLE

PALM OIL: A

NEW ERA?

RESTORATION:

A 2 BILLION

HECTARE

OPPORTUNITY?

CHINA:

CLEARING THE

AIR?

Image: Flickr/Leniners

2013: A YEAR OF POLLUTION

189 days of high pollution in Beijing in 2013

POPULAR UNREST

Image: Flickr/Robert Moposang; Source: The Guardian

3m mentions of “PM 2.5” on SINA WEIBO, Jan 2013

A DRIVER OF POLLUTION

Image: WRI; source: EIA 2013

50% global coal consumed by China

TAKING ACTION: AIR

Image: WRI; Source: China Daily

$277bn budgeted for anti-pollution measures in the next 5 years

TAKING ACTION: CUTTING COAL

Image: Flickr/Jonathan Kos-Read; source: ChinaFAQs

Ban on New Coal Plants in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou

TAKING ACTION: ENFORCEMENT

Image: Flickr/Bert Van Djik; Source: Xinhua

8 cities in China fined by

provincial government

for air pollution

TAKING ACTION: MORE RENEWABLES

Image: Wikimedia: Bloomberg

12 GW solar capacity added in China, the record for any country in a single year

WHAT TO WATCH

1. A tipping point on air pollution?

2. More progress to rein in coal?

3. Will new renewables outpace fossil fuels?

Image: WRI

1 7 UN SUMMIT:

MOMENTUM

ON CLIMATE?

Image: Wikimedia Image: istockphoto

SHIFTING TO A

SUSTAINABLE

FOOD FUTURE?

WATER AT

RISK?

THE YEAR OF

CITIES: HOW

WILL THEY

GROW?

SUSTAINABLE

PALM OIL: A

NEW ERA?

RESTORATION:

A 2 BILLION

HECTARE

OPPORTUNITY?

CHINA:

CLEARING THE

AIR?

UN SUMMIT:

MOMENTUM ON

CLIMATE?

NEARLY 100 COUNTRIES WITH GHG GOALS

Source: UNFCCC

30 Years it will take us to use the

other half at current rate

To stay within 2° of warming,

emissions should peak by

2020

200 Years it took us to use half

the world’s carbon budget

THE BRUTAL ARITHMETIC

Source: Rystad Energy, Carbon Tracker

Gt

CO

2

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Budget Proven reserves

Oil 22%

Gas 13%

Two thirds of

reserves

“unburnable”

Coal 65%

UNBURNABLE CARBON

EUROPEAN COMMISSION POST-2020 PROPOSAL

40% Reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 below 1990 levels

Image: istockphoto; Source: UCS

27% Renewable energy across EU by 2030

US POST-2020 TARGET

17% emissions reduction by 2020

Image: Flickr/The White House; Source: White House

IPCC REPORTS – MARCH & APRIL

Image: Flickr/Gavin Golden

NEW CLIMATE ECONOMY – SEPTEMBER

Image: WRI

CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT – SEPTEMBER

Image: Flickr/UNClimateChange

PATHWAY TO PARIS

Image: Wikimedia

We are at a pivotal moment

2015

Conference on Financing

for Development

UNFCCC COP 21

Hyogo Framework for

Action on disaster risk

reduction

Post-2015

Development

Framework

WHAT TO WATCH

1. Will growing evidence spur public pressure?

2. Will a mid-term US strategy emerge?

3. Will the EU continue to lead?

Image: Flickr/Philip Roeland

1

8 A BILLION VOTERS:

WHICH DIRECTION

WILL THEY CHOOSE?

Image: istockphoto

SHIFTING TO A

SUSTAINABLE

FOOD FUTURE?

WATER AT

RISK?

THE YEAR OF

CITIES: HOW

WILL THEY

GROW?

SUSTAINABLE

PALM OIL: A

NEW ERA?

RESTORATION:

A 2 BILLION

HECTARE

OPPORTUNITY?

CHINA:

CLEARING THE

AIR?

UN SUMMIT:

MOMENTUM ON

CLIMATE?

A BILLION

VOTERS: WHICH

DIRECTION WILL

THEY CHOOSE?

A MOMENT OF OPPORTUNITY

Image: istockphoto

• 3 of the 4 largest democracies

to elect heads of government

• 25% of world’s population

• 40% of the global poor

ELECTIONS: BRAZIL

Image: Flickr/Dilma Rousseff; Source: IDEA

136m voters in Brazil

ELECTIONS: INDIA

Image: Flickr/London Summit; Source: IDEA

780m voters in India

ELECTIONS: INDONESIA

Image: Flickr/World Economic Forum; Source: IDEA

160m voters in Indonesia

ELECTIONS: EUROPEAN UNION

Image: Flickr.EEAS

U.S. MIDTERM ELECTIONS

56% House Republicans deny climate change

65% Senate Republicans deny climate change

Image: istockphoto

ELECTIONS MATTER

Image: Wikipedia

WHAT TO WATCH

1. Which way will these elections go?

2. What will the results tell us about the future of economic growth, poverty and sustainability?

Image: Flickr/Al_Jazeera_English

2 WATER AT RISK?

3 THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW

4 RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY?

5 SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA?

6 CHINA: CLEARING THE AIR?

7 UN SUMMIT: MOMENTUM ON CLIMATE?

8 A BILLION VOTERS: WHICH DIRECTION WILL THEY CHOOSE?

1 TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE