stories to watch 2016 #stw16

Photo: Greenpeace

FEATURING

Andrew SteerPresident & CEOJanuary 13, 2016

WORST REFUGEE CRISIS SINCE WWII

60 millionpeople displaced globally

Photo: CAPHOD Photo Library/Flickr

TERRORISM SPIKES AROUND THE WORLD

Photo: The Apex Archive

SLOW ECONOMIC GROWTH: A NEW NORMAL?

Photo: Wendell/Flickr

BUT, SIGNS OF HOPE

Photo: United Nations

FROM COMMITMENTS…

Photo: COP Paris/Flickr

…TO ACTION

Photo: Flickr/.freeside.

THE PARIS AGREEMENT: Will Momentum Continue?

STORY 1

Photo: Greenpeace

A TURNING POINT ON CLIMATE

Photo: COP Paris

WHAT’S IN THE AGREEMENT?

MORE AMBITION NEEDED

Source: WRI analysis by Kelly Levin and Taryn Fransen http://www.wri.org/blog/2015/11/insider-why-are-indc-studies-reaching-different-temperature-estimates

MORE AMBITION NEEDED

Source: WRI analysis by Kelly Levin and Taryn Fransen http://www.wri.org/blog/2015/11/insider-why-are-indc-studies-reaching-different-temperature-estimates

MORE AMBITION NEEDED

Source: WRI analysis by Kelly Levin and Taryn Fransen http://www.wri.org/blog/2015/11/insider-why-are-indc-studies-reaching-different-temperature-estimates

WHAT TO WATCH:

Will Countries Seize Momentum?

Photo: Elentari86/Flickr

WHAT TO WATCH:

How Many Countries Sign On?

Photo: Susan Melkisethian/Flickr

April 22: Earth Day

WHAT TO WATCH:

Progress on National Commitments?

Source: CAIT Paris Contributions Map/WRI

135 Countries Set GHG Targets

WHAT TO WATCH:

India as a Bellwether?

Photo: Narendra Modi/Flickr

Goal:

3GW to 100GW Solar Power by 2022

Will Momentum Continue? STORY 1

Photo: Greenpeace

NEW CLIMATE ECONOMY:Will the Message Take Root?

STORY 2

Photo: Greenpeace

THE INTELLECTUAL JOURNEY

Photo: C40 Cities/Flickr

THE INTELLECTUAL JOURNEY

• Economic growth and climate action are tradeoffs

Photo: C40 Cities/Flickr

THE INTELLECTUAL JOURNEY

• Economic growth and climate action are tradeoffs

• Economic growth can be consistent with climate action

Photo: C40 Cities/Flickr

THE INTELLECTUAL JOURNEY

• Economic growth and climate action are tradeoffs

• Economic growth can be consistent with climate action

• Economic growth is only possible with climate action

Photo: C40 Cities/Flickr

BUSINESSES: GROWING COMMITMENTS

• 1,000+ companies commit to carbon pricing

• 150+ U.S. companies pledge support for climate action

• 116 companies commit to Science-Based Targets

Source: http://sciencebasedtargets.org/; Carbon Pricing; The White House Photo: iStock

WHAT TO WATCH:

Will Businesses Follow Through?

Photo: COP Paris/Flickr

WHAT TO WATCH:

More Science-Based Targets?

Images: Wikimedia Commons

WHAT TO WATCH:

Alignment on Lobbying

Image: Flickr/Daniel Guy

ACTION IN CITIES, TOO

425+ Cities join the Compact of Mayors

Source: Compact of Mayors

WHAT TO WATCH:

Will Cities Deliver?

Photo:WRI

WHAT TO WATCH:

Will New Urban Narrative Take Hold?

Photo: Scipio/Flickr

October: Habitat III ConferenceQuito, Ecuador

Will the Message Take Root? STORY 2

Image: Greenpeace

GREEN FINANCE:Will the Financial System Evolve?

STORY 3

Photo:Travel Aficionado/Flickr

RAISING BILLIONS, SHIFTING TRILLIONS

Photo: Scott Beale/Flickr

GREENING FINANCIAL SYSTEMS: WHAT WILL IT TAKE?

GREENING FINANCIAL SYSTEMS: WHAT WILL IT TAKE?

GREENING FINANCIAL SYSTEMS: WHAT WILL IT TAKE?

GREENING FINANCIAL SYSTEMS: WHAT WILL IT TAKE?

GREENING FINANCIAL SYSTEMS: WHAT WILL IT TAKE?

WHY NOT ENOUGH FUNDING FOR GREEN PROJECTS?

WHY NOT ENOUGH FUNDING FOR GREEN PROJECTS?

SIGNS OF CHANGE: INCREASING AWARENESS

Source: Bank of England; Photo: World Economic Forum/Flickr

“Shifts in our climate bring potentially profound implications for insurers, financial stability and the economy.”

– Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England

SIGNS OF CHANGE: ACTION IN MAJOR COUNTRIES

Photo: bfishadow/Flickr

WHAT TO WATCH:

Will China’s G20 Deliver?

Photo: European Council President/Flickr

WHAT TO WATCH:

Will G20 Embrace Systemic Reform?

Photo: Alex Proimos/Flickr

• Disclosure guidelines• Environmental stress tests• Lenders liability • Green bond regulations• Etc.

WHAT TO WATCH:

What Will the New Taskforce Say?

Image: Angela Radulescu/Flickr

Recommendations in December

WHAT TO WATCH:

Green Climate Fund: Will Money Flow?

Photo: The Green Climate Fund

Goal: $2.5 billion in 2016

WHAT TO WATCH:

Which Way on Multilateral Investment?

Photo: Yardley/Flickr

Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)New Development BankSilk Road Fund

WHAT TO WATCH:

Will Institutional Investors Adjust?

Image: World Bank Photo Collection/Flickr

• $600 billion committed to decarbonization

• $1 trillion  target in 2016?

Will the Financial System Evolve?STORY 3

Image:Travel Aficionado/Flickr

FOOD LOSS & WASTE:A Growing Movement?

STORY 4

Image: superk8nyc/Flickr

A GLOBAL CHALLENGE

• 2.3 billion more people by 2050

• 70% greater food demand in 2050

Source: UN 2015; World Resources Report 2015; FAO 2015. Photo: Ed Yourdon/Flickr

WHAT A WASTE…

32% of all food is wasted from farm to fork

Photo: Shutterstock

FINANCIAL DRAIN

Loss of $940 billion per year

Source: FAO 2015; Photo: Alexander Edward/Flickr

HURTS FOOD SECURITY

1 in 9 people don’t get enough food today

Source: World Bank; Photo: GAC | AMC/Flickr

INCREASES PRESSURE ON RESOURCES

Food loss & waste uses cropland greater than the size of China

Source: Kummu, M. et al, 2012; FAO, 2013; Photo: John Roberts/Flickr

MAJOR DRIVER OF EMISSIONS

Source: CAIT, 2015, FAO 2015 Food wastage footprint & climate change. Rome: FAO

A NEW GLOBAL GOAL

Halve Global Food Waste by 2030

Source: United Nations; Image: United Nations

WHAT TO WATCH:

A Common Global Standard?

Photo: Flickr/Lyza

WHAT TO WATCH:

Will Businesses Make Progress?

Images: Wikimedia Commons

Consumer Goods Forum: 400 membersGoal to cut food waste in half by 2025

WHAT TO WATCH:

Will Companies Lead?

Photo: raver_mikey/Flickr

• Transparency• Whole value chain

approach• Food surplus donation

WHAT TO WATCH:

Will More Countries Set Targets?

Source: USDA; Image: US Department of Agriculture/Flickr

US GOAL50% reduction in food waste by 2030

WHAT TO WATCH:

Will Political Momentum Grow?

Image: World Economic Forum/Flickr

Launch of Champions 12.3in Davos

A Growing Movement?STORY 4

Photo: superk8nyc/Flickr

CHINA: Will a New Vision Take Hold?

STORY 5

Image: Trey Ratcliff/Flickr

A GOOD RIDE

10X increase in GDP since 1990

Note: GDP (Constant 2005 US$); Source: World Bank Development Indicators; Photo: IOC Young Reporters/Flickr

A VOLATILE MOMENT

Source: Shanghai Composite Index data via Quandl

Shanghai Composite Index (June 2015 – Jan 2016)

CURRENT MODEL CANNOT CONTINUE

‘Red Alerts’ for air pollution close schools and business

Photo: V.T. Polywoda/Flickr

A TEST FOR CHINA’S LEADERS

"China's development should not just be focused on growth pace, but, more importantly, on growth quality”

– President Xi

Source: http://english.cri.cn/12394/2015/11/03/191s902485.htm ; Image: UN Photo/Loey Felipe/Flickr

13TH FIVE YEAR PLAN

March 2016: National People’s Congress to Approve Plan

Photo: Remko Tanis/Flickr

CHINA’S BROAD TARGETS ALREADY ANNOUNCED

• Peak CO2 emissions by 2030 (or earlier)• Double non-fossil fuels in the energy mix by 2030  • Reduce carbon intensity 60–65% from 2005 levels by 2030

Source: UNFCC; Photo: Peter F/Flickr

What targets for wind & solar pre-2020?

Photo: The Climate Group/Flickr

WHAT TO WATCH:

Progress on Clean Energy?

• More caps on coal? • Limits on coal finance?

Photo: Rose Robinson/Flickr

WHAT TO WATCH:

When Will Coal Peak?

Progress toward national trading?

Photo: ansoncfit/Flickr

WHAT TO WATCH:

Carbon Trading System?

• 3x building stock by 2030

• How many more low-carbon pilot cities?

Photo: depps/Flickr

WHAT TO WATCH:

A New Urbanization?

• Will China reduce excess capacity in steel & heavy industries?

• How fast will the service industry grow?

Photo: gregoire_m/Flickr

WHAT TO WATCH:

Rebalancing the Economy?

Will a New Vision Take Hold?STORY 5:

Photo: Trey Ratcliff/Flickr

US CLIMATE LEADERSHIP:

Will it Continue?

STORY 6

Photo: ABC News/Flickr

2015: TAX CREDITS FOR RENEWABLES

Photo: Mark Fischer/Flickr

2015: KEYSTONE XL PIPELINE REJECTED

Photo: Bonnie Chan/Rainforest Action Network

2015: CLEAN POWER PLAN FINALIZED

• 17% by 2020• 26-28% by 2025

(below 2005 levels)

Photo: Alex Ferguson/Flickr

US Climate Goals

HOW ARE STATES RESPONDING?

27 States Suing

Source: (E&E Publishing, LLC) http://www.eenews.net/interactive/clean_power_plan

HOW ARE STATES RESPONDING?

But 38 States Drafting Plans (so far)

Source: (E&E Publishing, LLC) http://www.eenews.net/interactive/clean_power_plan

WHAT TO WATCH:

How Will Courts Rule? (February/March)

Photo: Wikimedia Commons

WHAT TO WATCH:

What Will States’ Plans Look Like? (September)

Photo: Energy.gov/Flickr

WHAT TO WATCH:

Photo: Duke Energy/Flickr

50+ Companies Signed on to Renewable Energy Buyers Principles

How Will Utilities Respond?

WHAT TO WATCH:

Photo: The White House/Flickr

HFCs StandardsFuel Efficiency StandardsMethane in Landfills & Infrastructure

More Executive Action?

WHAT TO WATCH:

Photo: ABC News/Flickr

How Will Climate Play in the Campaigns?

WHAT TO WATCH:

Photo: AP

How Will Climate Play in the Campaigns?

IN NOVEMBER…

Photo: Getty Images

Will it Continue?STORY 6

Photo: ABC News/Flickr

Photo: Greenpeace

THE PARIS AGREEMENT: Will Momentum Continue?NEW CLIMATE ECONOMY: Will the Message Take Root?GREEN FINANCE: Will the Financial System Evolve?FOOD LOSS & WASTE: A Growing Movement?CHINA: Will a New Vision Take Hold?US CLIMATE LEADERSHIP: Will it Continue?