synergy in integration - institutional mechanism for managing hydrological extremes, by naseer ahmad...

TEC GWP

International Workshop

Synergy in Integration

Institutional Mechanism

for

Managing Hydrological Extremes

Naseer Ahmad Gillani

Chief Water / CEO, National Drought Program Planning Commission

Chairman, Pakistan Water Partnership

2

“Water is the driver of Nature”

Leonardo da Vinci

(1452 – 1519)

“O Children of Adam!... Eat and

drink: But waste not by excess, for

God loveth not the wasters.”

Al-Qura’an

WATER IS THE NEXUS

• Water is central to the socio economic

development.

• Food security, poverty reduction,

economic growth, energy production,

human health

4

PRESENTLY IRRIGATED AREAS AND PROPOSED WATER PROJECTS

3.8 MA 44.4 MA TOTAL

0.8 MA 2.2 MA Balochista

n

0.5 MA 2.3 MA NWFP

1.5 MA 33.4 MA Punjab

1.0 MA 6.5 MA Sindh

Ongoin

g

Scheme

s

Presently

Irrigated

Areas

AREA

BALOCHISTAN

SINDH

PUNJAB

Disputed Territory

NWFP

Water Extreme Events: Flood & Drought

SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT

Poverty Alleviation

Employment Generation

Human Development Index (HDI)

Management Instruments

● Conflict resolution to manage disputes and

ensure equitable and fair sharing of water.

● Economic instruments – using value and

prices for efficiency and equity.

● Information management and exchange to

improve knowledge for better water

management.

Integration

• Floods and drought

• Extreme value events

• Dry and wet cycles

• Seasonal variability

• Climate change

Synergy in integration

• Meteorology science

• Field measurement

• Satellite

• Remote sensing

• Models

• Predictions

• Impact Reduction

• Recovery

Message

• Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC) : Pakistan/Indus Basin to face higher

frequency, severity and aerial coverage of

extreme events of water availability and non-

availability (floods and droughts)

• Recent floods and droughts: our knowledge is

not enough.

• Moving from structural measures to non-structural

software initiatives.

Objective of the Workshop

Policy Influence: Flood and Drought

Management for Food Security

Climate Change Reaches to Pakistan Through Water

Focal Issues with Policy Makers

• Public welfare • Security • National- geographic boundaries

• Food • Energy • Heath

• Scio economic growth • Infrastructure • Trade • Natural resources

Stand alone

Integrated

State

Public

Society

Local

Security ? Dimensions….

• Conflict

• Disturbance

• Law & Order

• Institutional Collapse

• Revolution

• War

Security Horizons

• Scarcity

• Prestige

• Independence

• Sovereignty

• Economics

• Development

• Poverty

• Hunger

• Survival

Impact Factors

• Survival

• MDGs

• PRSP

• Life

Magnitude

Communication strategy

• Droughts cause reduction in growth:

impacts on agricultural production and

livelihood.

• There is not much to combat or de-

accelerate the climate change by Pakistan,

mandatory is : climate change adaptation.

Value of Message

• Reconstruction process requires US$ 10

billion public sector investment and equal

investment by private sector.

• In the absence of predicted expected peak

flows, the time, duration, frequency and

location may cause the investment void.

• Public investment for hydraulic structures for

water augmentation may not provide the

anticipated benefits due to reduced mean

annual flows.

Percentage changes in annual extreme precipitation

Ethiopia: Rainfall, GDP and Agricultural GDP

Trends in Flood Damages

• $6 billion annually

• Four-fold increase from early 1900s

• Per Capita Damages increased by more than a factor of 2.5 in the previous century in real dollar terms

1 2 3 4 5 6

1990s

1980s

1970s

1960s

1950s

1940s

1930s

1920s

1910s

BILLIONS (adjusted to 1999 dollars)

$ 2.2

$ 2.0

$ 2.9

$ 2.4

$ 3.4

$ 2.2

$ 4.9

$ 3.3

Need Assessment

Knowledge gaps: Hydrology developed by Linsley

Hydraulic Engineering designs developed

by US System

Hydraulic System Computation Models

produced by Netherland

European Model “SHE”

Pakistan UNESCO Model of rainfall run off

All have to be revisited

Solution specific models to be developed.

Impact

Climate change reaches to Pakistan through

water:

a. Threat to glaciers, water towers

b. Implications of GLOF

c. Changed pattern of monsoon, intensive rains,

flash floods, prolonged droughts.

d. Increased temperature : enhanced crop water

requirements.

e. Cyclones and sea-level changes.

Updating National Water Sector Data

• Water is the primary medium through which climate change will impact people, ecosystems and economies

• Water resources management should therefore be an early focus for adaptation to climate change

• Water resources management does not hold all of the answers to adaptation; a broad range of responses will be needed

• But, water is both part of the problem and an important part of the solution. It is a good place to start

Water, the Primary Medium

Actions Required

1. Evaluation of the existing system

2. Learning from the South Asia

3. Learning from the Global experience

4. Updating existing/create new models

1. Partnership

2. Linkages with Research Institutions

3. Creation of network Institutions providing

cost effective engineering solutions

incorporating software components

Moving Towards Solutions

• Support improved climate information systems

• Integration of climate information into water

resource management planning activities

• Link hydrologists who are looking for practical

and sustainable adaptation solutions – get

them to interact

Some Concrete Suggestions

The Temporal Dimension: Timeframes,

Sequencing and Uncertainty

Focus on:

Strengthening management information, infrastructure

New institutions and Co-operation,

UNESCO, WMO, DHI

Planning and Operations in a Real Time Environment G r o u n d

D a ta

R A I N F A L L

F O R E C A S T S

F O R E C A S T S

S a te l l i t te

D a ta

M I K E 1 1M O D E L L I N G

DSS For Real Time Forecasting

Thanks We don’t deserve

By: Naseer A. Gillani

Chief (Water)