systemic thinking to developing a meta-synthetic support for complex issues xijin tang institute of...

Systemic Thinking to Developing a Meta-Synthetic Support for

Complex Issues

Xijin TangInstitute of Systems Science

Academy of Mathematics and Systems Sciences

Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080 P.R.CHINA

16th JISR-IIASA Workshop on Methodologies and Tools for Complex System Modeling and Integrated Policy Assessment

July 15-17, 2002,   IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

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Contents

• Approaches to Complex Problems Solving

• Meta-Synthesis Method

• Developing Meta-Synthetic Tool for Complex Problem Solving

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Customers

Man-Machine Meta-Synthetic Support for Macroeconomic Decision Making A Major Project by Natural Science Foundation

of China (1999-2003 ） Computerized Support for Comprehensive

Assessment of Weapon System A Defense Innovation Project by Chinese

Academy of Sciences （ 2001-2002)

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Complex Problems

• Socioeconomic Problem• Sustainable Development• Evaluation of large project especially R&D

Projects

Semi-Structured or Unstructured problemsOpen Complex Giant System (Qian, 1990)

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Purposes

When facing unknown problems, – does current framework of resources (Models,

Knowledge) still work?– how to utilize current framework of knowledge and

models? – how to integrate current resources ? – how to create new knowledge or models based on

experts’ wisdom and ready framework of models with new data and information?

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Approaches to Complex Problem Solving

• Hard System Approaches

• Soft System Approaches

Hard OR vs. Soft OR

Hard System Analysis vs. Soft System Analysis

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Modeling Strategic Problem

• Strategic Choice (J. K. Friend)

• Soft Systems Methodology (P. Checkland)

• Journey Making (previously known as SODA & Cognitive Mapping) developed by Colin Eden and colleagues at the Universities of Bath and Strathclyde

• Dialog Mapping

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Comparisons between Hard and Soft System

Approaches

Hard system approach

systematic world

end-means scheme

optimization satisfaction

content-oriented

positive-empirical models

do the thing right

Soft system approach• systemic mind • participation/debate• learning satisfying • process-oriented• interpretive methods • do the right thing

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Modern Oriental System Approaches

• Shinayakana system approach (Sawaragi, etc. Japan, 90s) – i-System: Intelligence, Imagination, Involvement, Integrat

ion and Intervention

• Meta-synthesis from qualitative to quantitative approach (Qian, et al. China, 90s)– Hall for Workshop of Meta-Synthetic Engineering (HWM

SE)

• Wu-li Shi-li Ren-li System Approach (Gu, et al. 90s)• Spiral System Methodology (Wang, China, 90s)

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Systems Approach to Problem-Solving

Cultural Facet

Technological Facet

Systemic Facet

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Meta-Synthesis Method

• Above meta-analysis method• Data, information, models, knowledge• From qualitative (expert knowledge and wisdom) to

quantitative (quantitative analysis)• Making full use of breaking advances in IT• Formulating confident hypothesis vs. To be

precisely tested, verified, and validated. • Workshop or Seminars for discussion and debate

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A Practical Example

Research on Man-Machine cooperated Meta-Synthetic Engineering System Supporting Macro Economy Decision-Making

• A NSFC Major Project

• 12 units, > 50 people

• 4-year (99.06-03.06)

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Project Organization

Master Coordinating Group (0)

Environment Group (1)

Economy Group (2)

Method Group (3)

KDD and Cognition Group (4)

ISS, CAS

XJTU

SHTU

BNU

Tsinghua

BISE

IP, CAS

IA, CAS BIIC

RMU

SDPC

HUST IA, CAS

Over=all Design Group

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Issues during Project Implementation

• Multiple views, multi-institution involvement, multiple disciplines

• Lack coordinating endeavors

• Lack of actionable framework Utilization of ready resources Bottom-up research achievements

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Bottom-up Research Halls for Meta-

Synthesis

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Some Methods and Computerzied Support

• Brainstorming

• Delphi

• Voting

• AHP

• Other MCDM methods

• Nominal Group Techniques

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Final Product?

Databases,

Methods,

Models,

Tools,

Halls for Meta-synthesis

Input

?

Output

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What will NSFC see?

Meta-Synthesis Practice

– Aggregation of resources

– One centralized hall / component-based

– Distributed rooms / agent-based

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Outcome?

Cultural Facet

Technological Facet

Systemic Facet

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Functions

• Communication, Collaboration and Consensus building

• Group Thinking

• Group Decision Making

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Group Work Activities

Resolution

Collaboration

ConsensusNew Knowledge

Various Knowledge

Various Issues

Communication

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Divergent and Convergent Thinking

Divergent Thinking Convergent Thinking

Knowledge Creation Knowledge Synthesis

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Divergent Thinking Convergent Thinking

Knowledge Creation Knowledge Synthesis

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Collaborative Thinking

Cooperative Thinking

Individual Thinking

IndividualThinking

Individual Thinking

Group as a Thinking

Entity

Group Thinking Model

Mase, et al .(1998)

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Group 3

Main Room (IA)

Discussion Room (XJTU) Discussion

Room (HUST)

Discussion Room (ISS)

Room Beijing (BISE)

Models Tools

DB

Economic Models (SJTU)

Group 4

Group 2

KDD Models (Tsinghua)

Economic Models (BIIC)

System Reconstruction

Model (ISS)

Group 1

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Group Argumentation Template

• Electronic Brainstorming Room (BAR)– Personal Viewer– Common Viewer (Seminar Blackboard)– Information View (Searching Engine)

• Automatic Affinity Diagramming

• Nominal Group Technique (NGT)

Common Viewer

Personal View

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