technical and political solutions for disaster resilience

TOWARDS COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE

REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR A “KNOCK OUT DISASTER”

CREATING A COMMON AGENDA

EVERY TIME ANOTHER DISASTER OCCURS, WE’RE ARE WRITING

THE NEXT CHAPTER IN THE “GLOBAL BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE”

ON DISASTER RESILIENCE

BOOK OFBOOK OF

KNOWLEDGE

KNOWLEDGE

- Perspectives

- Perspectives

On Science, Policy,

On Science, Policy, And Change

And Change

EDUCATION FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

• TOPICAL BLUEPRINTS• BLUEPRINTS FOR

LIVING WITH …• BLUEPRINTS FOR

BUILDING TO WITHSTAND…

• BLUEPRINTS FOR LEARNING FROM…

• BLUEPRINTS FOR IMPLEMENTATION...

• REGIONAL BLUEPRINTS

• PACIFIC• EUROPE• ASIA• LATIN AMERICA AND

CARIBBEAN• SUB-SAHARA AFRICA• MEDITERRANEAN• NORTH AMERICA

EDUCATION FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

• EDUCATION• INTEGRATED

CURRICULA• GENERIC MODELS• MODELS FOR

SPECIFIC LOCATIONS• MODELS FOR

SPECIFIC HAZARDS• TRAINING

• KNOWLEDGE• MUNICH RE ANNUAL

REPORTS, “TOPICS”• PROCEEDINGS OF

WCDR, JANUARY 2005• PROCEEDINGS OF

INCEED, JULY 2005• PROCEEDINGS OF

DAVOS, 2006, 2008, 2012

TOWARDS GLOBAL DISASTER TOWARDS GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE

GOAL: TO FIND THE COMMON AGENDAGOAL: TO FIND THE COMMON AGENDA((CACA) OF TECHNICAL ) OF TECHNICAL

AND POLITICAL SOLUTIONSAND POLITICAL SOLUTIONS

TECHNICAL TECHNICAL SOLUTIONSSOLUTIONS

POLITICAL POLITICAL SOLUTIONSSOLUTIONS

CACA

TOWARDS GLOBAL DISASTER TOWARDS GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE

FACT: THE COMMON AGENDA IS BASED FACT: THE COMMON AGENDA IS BASED ON EACH COMMUNITY’S ON EACH COMMUNITY’S STAPLESTAPLE FACTORS FACTORS

TECHNICAL TECHNICAL SOLUTIONSSOLUTIONS

POLITICAL POLITICAL SOLUTIONSSOLUTIONS

STAPLESTAPLE FACTORSFACTORS

PPTT

SSOO

CACA

HAZARDSHAZARDS

ELEMENTS OF RISK IN EVERY ELEMENTS OF RISK IN EVERY COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY

EXPOSUREEXPOSURE

VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATION

RISKRISK

HAZARDS, EXPOSURE, VULNERABILITY AND HAZARDS, EXPOSURE, VULNERABILITY AND RISK DIFFER IN EVERY COMMUNITY RISK DIFFER IN EVERY COMMUNITY

SO DO THE THE STAPLE FACTORS, WHICH VARY WITH

• TIME• PLACE• CIRCUMSTANCES

SOCIAL (ARE THE PEOPLE AWARE OF WHAT THEY NEED?)

COMMUNITY

TECHNICAL (IS THE STATE OF KNOWLEDGE AND PRACTICE BEING

APPLIED?)

ADMINISTRATIVE (WHO IS RESPONSIBLE AND ACCOUNTABLE?)

POLITICAL (ARE PUBLIC POLICIES RELEVANT IN TERMS OF THE

THREAT?)

LEGAL (ARE EXISTIN LEGAL MANDATES ENFORCED?)

ECONOMIC (WILLINGNESS AND CAPACITY TO PAY FOR SAFETY?)

GOAL: COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE

SOCIAL SYSTEMS

STAPLE FACTORS

TOWARDS GLOBAL DISASTER TOWARDS GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE

GOAL: TO UNDERSTAND THE DIFFERENCESGOAL: TO UNDERSTAND THE DIFFERENCESIN TECHNICAL IN TECHNICAL

AND POLITICAL THINKINGAND POLITICAL THINKING

TECHNICAL TECHNICAL SOLUTIONSSOLUTIONS

POLITICAL POLITICAL SOLUTIONSSOLUTIONS

CACA

DIFFERENCES IN PERSPECTIVES OF POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL

PROFESSIONALS

BASED ON “NOT WELL ADVISED,” SZANTON (1981)

POLITICAL VERSUS TECHNICAL

• POLITICAL• THE GUIDING

PRINCIPLE FOR THE POLITICAL DECISION IS TO HAVE THE “LEAST REGRETS”

• TECHNICAL• THE GUIDING

PRINCIPLE FOR THE TECHNICAL DECISION IS TO HAVE THE “BEST SCIENCE”

POLITICAL VERSUS TECHNICAL

• POLITICAL• THE DESIRED

OUTCOME IS APPROVAL OF THE DECISIONMAKER’S CONSTITUENTS (ELECTORATE, STOCK HOLDERS)

• TECHNICAL• THE DESIRED

OUTCOME IS RESPECT OF THE SCIENTIST’S OR ENGINEER’S PEERS

POLITICAL VERSUS TECHNICAL

• POLITICAL• THE TIME

HORIZON IS SHORT AND A SOLUTION IS WANTED NOW

• TECHNICAL• THE TIME

HORIZON IS LONG AND “THE SOLUTION” TAKES A LITTLE MORE TIME

POLITICAL VERSUS TECHNICAL

• POLITICAL• THE MOST

VALUED OUTCOME IS A RELIABLE SOLUTION WITH UNCERTAINTIES SUBMERGED

• TECHNICAL• THE MOST

VALUED OUTCOME IS SCIENTIFIC INSIGHT WITH UNCERTAINTIES EMPHASIZED

MYTH VERSUS REALITY

• MYTH• IN EVERY

COMMUNITY, THERE IS A GENERAL PUBLIC, WHICH HAS A COMMON PERCEPTION OF THE PROBLEM

• REALITY• IN EVERY

COMMUNITY, THERE ARE MANY PUBLICS, WHICH HAVE DIFFERENT PERCEPTIONS OF THE PROBLEM

MYTH VERSUS REALITY

• MYTH• E-MAILING A

REPORT IS EFFECTIVE IN INFLUENCING THE COMMUNITY’S PUBLICS AND THE POLITICAL PROCESS

• REALITY• E-MAILING A

REPORT IS INEFFECTIVE IN INFLUENCING THE COMMUNITY’S PUBLICS AND THE POLITICAL PROCESS

MYTH VERSUS REALITY

• MYTH• FOR A SCIENTIFIC

DECISION, SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS IS A NECESSARY AND SUFFICIENT CONSIDERATION

• REALITY• FOR A POLITICAL

DECISION, SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS IS ONLY ONE OF AT LEAST SIX CONSIDERATIONS

DECISIONS FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

• INTEGRATE THE STAPLE FACTORS

• BALANCE THE COMMUNITY’S STAPLE FACTORS

• DETERMINE BENEFIT/COST

RESULTS OF A COMMON AGENDA FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

• REDUCTION OF VULNERABILITY

• REDUCTION OF UNACCEPTABLE RISK

• NO “KNOCK OUT DISASTERS”

• POLITICAL ENABLEMENT

• ENHANCED TECHNICAL CAPACITY