the 2025 co2 standard for new cars: a look at technology ... · the 2025 co 2 standard for new...

The 2025 CO2 standard for new cars: A look at technology penetration, CO2 reduction potential and cost

Dr. Peter MockICCT Europe

“Road to efficiency” workshopBrussels, June 9, 2016

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Looking back: Technology penetration and cost estimates in the past

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CO2 regulations are driving new technologies into the market, both in the EU and U.S.

Forthcoming ICCT Working Paper

still work in progress!

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For some technologies the uptake is similar in both markets, for others there are striking differences

Forthcoming ICCT Working Paper

Mar

ket s

hare

(new

cars

)

still work in progress!

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The CO2 reduction effect for start-stop is high in NEDC but much lower for US-FTP and real-world

Forthcoming ICCT Working Paper

Mar

ket s

hare

(new

cars

)

Start-stop

still work in progress!

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The market for hybrid cars is still mostly driven by one manufacturer, both in the EU and U.S.

Forthcoming ICCT Working Paper

Mar

ket s

hare

(new

cars

)

Hybrid

still work in progress!

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Share of diesel is much smaller outside the EU, requiring more reductions from other technologies

Forthcoming ICCT Working Paper

Mar

ket s

hare

(new

cars

)

Diesel

still work in progress!

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http://www.theicct.org/blogs /staff/vehicle-technology-costs-es timates-vs-reality

The original penetration and cost estimates for the 130 g/km target for 2015 turned out to be too high

For determining feasible CO2 reduction rates and the associated cost there are different approaches

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Industry surveyIndustry representatives share data on CO2 reduction potential and costs for technologies / technology packages

Computer simulation of CO2 reduction potential for technology packages + tear-down cost estimates

In-depth bottom-up analysis

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Based on: http://www.theicct.org/blogs/s taf f/vehicle-technology-costs-estimates-vs-reality

The assessment for meeting 95 g/km by 2020/21 was more thorough but still likely overly pessimistic

still work in progress!

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Looking forward: What are the technologies to reach a 2025 target?

There is a variety of technical options to reduce CO2 emissions of new vehicles, already today

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Fuel [l/100!km]

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7

8

5

3

1

4

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00 500 1000 1500 2000vehicle weight [kg]

2500

Data source: (DAT, 2014), manufacturers’ websites. Only a selection of available vehicles is shown.

EU

ave

rag

e

2015 EU fleet target: 130!g/km (~5.2 l/100!km)

2020 EU fleet target: 95!g/km (~3.8 l/100!km)

2025 EU fleet target (European Parliament proposal): 78!g/km (~3.1!l/100!km)

2025 EU fleet target (European Parliament proposal): 68!g/km (~2.7!l/100!km)

Gasoline Gasoline hybrid Diesel Diesel hybrid Natural gasPlug-in hybrid Full electric

VW up!Citroën C3

Volvo V40Audi A3

Citroën C4 Cactus

BMW 1-series

BMW 5-seriesMercedes-Benz E-class

Mercedes-Benz E-class

Nissan LeafBMW i3

Renault ZoeRenault Twizy

Toyota Prius

BMW i3

smart fortwo Renault Fluence

Porsche Panamera

Volvo V60Mitsubishi Outlander

Porsche 918

Opel Ampera

BMW i8

VW eco up!Peugeot 3008

Toyota Prius

VW e-up!

Ford Fiesta

VW Golf

top-selling version 2012

VW Golf

VW Golf

top-selling version 2012

VW Golf

top-selling version 2006

VW Golf

top-selling version 2006

Peugeot iOn e-Golf

Fiat Panda

Toyota Yaris

There is a variety of technical options to reduce CO2 emissions of new vehicles, already today

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• Improving the gasoline engine(still large potential for evolutionary development)

• Improving the diesel engine(less potential than for gasoline? exhaust aftertreatment? cost-benefit?)

• Improving the transmission system(more gears, moving to dual-clutch transmission)

• Moving towards increased electrification(mild hybrid à full hybrid à plug-in hybrid à range extender à fully electric)

• Improving the vehicle road-load(light-weighting aerodynamics, tires)

• Technology is always evolving!

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https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/impact-of-real-world-driving-emissions/

The gap between official and real-world CO2 data is expected to continue to increase, even with WLTP

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Based on : http://www.theicct.org/blogs /staff/vehicle-technology-costs-estimates-vs-reality

Results so far suggest that a 2025 target of ~70 g/km is reachable without a large share of electric vehicles

still work in progress!

still work in progress!

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Forthcoming ICCT study

Payback for post-2020 target(s) is most likely still well within holding period of first hand owner

still work in progress!

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The bigger picture: What do we have to achieve in the mid and long term?

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http://theicct.org/co2-new-cars-eu-manufacturer-performance-2014

Globally, there is a competition to introduce more efficient vehicles and to reduce CO2 emission levels

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http://theicct.org/evaluating- policy-opti ons-reducing-CO2-from-transport-EU

For reaching the CO2 reduction targets for 2030, we need a combination of all available measures

Pathway for CO2 emission levels of new cars in the EU

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Agreed long-term targets will require essentially the de-carbonization of our vehicle fleet

Peter Mockpeter@theicct.orgwww.theicct.org

https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/impact-of-real-world-driving-emissions/http://www.theicct.org/laboratory-road-2015-updatehttp://www.theicct.org/future-of-vehicle-testinghttp://www.theicct.org/wltp-how-new-test-procedure-cars-will-affect-fuel-consumption-values-euhttp://www.theicct.org/road-transport-eu-emissions-trading-system-engineering-perspectivehttp://theicct.org/how-taxes-influence-vehicle-co2-emission-levelshttp://www.theicct.org/overview-heavy-duty-vehicle-market-and-co2-emissions-european-unionhttp://www.theicct.org/real-world-fuel-consumption-popular-european-passenger-car-models

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